Week 3 Preseason Picks:
- Patriots vs. Browns
- Commanders vs. Ravens
- Saints vs. Cowboys
The final week of preseason games has arrived and coaches are making decisions as to who will play and who will not. When we had four preseason games, Week 3 was the “dress rehearsal”, as teams prepared like it was the regular season and a lot of the starters played a half or maybe even as much as three quarters. That is not the case at all anymore, as joint practices have surpassed games in terms of reps and impact.
I’m tracking the news this week in terms of who is in and who is out, at least from a QB standpoint, but it’s an incomplete list as I put together these Week 3 preseason picks. Lines are current as of time of posting and can obviously move a lot based on the news over the next few days. This week, we have four games on Thursday, 10 on Friday, and two on Saturday.
Lines are current from DraftKings at time of posting, which is 9:15 a.m. PT on Tuesday, August 25.
Also, be sure to look at our NFL Pro Picks page for the latest from our VSiN experts and on-air guests and the NFL Preseason Betting Splits.
Here are some NFL Preseason Week 3 picks:
Odds as of Tuesday, August 25 at 9:15 a.m. PT
Patriots vs. Browns Prediction
Thursday, 7 p.m. ET
Pick: Over 35.5 (-105)
The vibes around the Browns are pretty poor right now. But, Todd Monken has announced a starting QB and so we don’t have to worry as much about the Deshaun Watson/Shedeur Sanders back-and-forth anymore. The offense could open up a little bit with Dillon Gabriel and Taylen Green here, especially since the Browns have to figure out which guy will stick around as the emergency QB on the practice squad. Personally, as a Browns fan, I’m really excited to see what Green can do with an extended look and I think he’ll get that here.
The Browns have some major defensive depth issues. The starters are pretty set in stone. But, they’ve allowed 41 points in the second half of the two preseason games thus far and a lot of those guys will play significantly more in this game since the top guys won’t be put at risk again.
For the Patriots, reps are really vital for Tommy DeVito, as the newcomer to the roster immediately slotted in as QB2 behind Drake Maye. DeVito is just 8-of-15 in the preseason with three sacks. Behren Morton has been better, going 13-of-17. My guess is that each guy plays roughly a half and that the Patriots will be on the lookout to see who gets axed during roster cutdowns.
With the business portion of the preseason pretty set for these two teams, it should be a good chance to let some of the practice squad players and young draftees to let loose a bit. In Cleveland’s case, anything exciting would be a welcomed sight.
Commanders vs. Ravens Prediction
Friday, 6 p.m. ET
Pick: Ravens -3 (-105)
The Commanders have a very short trip to Baltimore this week to wrap up the preseason. With Marcus Mariota expected to be back for Week 1 after suffering a sprained MCL, Sam Hartman and Athan Kaliakmanis will be fighting for a spot on the practice squad here.
Dan Quinn is now just 8-21 SU in preseason games as head coach and failed to cover the closing number against the Lions in last week’s 17-13 final, though he did cover the 4.5 that was available early on in the week and discussed in this article. Even though the Hartman/Kaliakmanis battle is of some importance, the focal point this week for the Commanders should be the running game and the offensive line.
Nick Allegretti has been hurt and there are some position battles for backup spots on the interior. Kaytron Allen has been really the only healthy running back for Washington in the preseason, so he’ll continue to get analyzed for a depth role. There aren’t as many questions about roster spots on the defensive side, so a lot of guys will be out there that aren’t likely to make the 53-man roster, meaning they’ll either be cut or go to the practice squad.
Baltimore has allowed a total of 10 points in two preseason games, as Jesse Minter seems to be taking the preseason pretty seriously in that department. On offense, Joe Fagnano has gotten the bulk of the work. Perhaps Austin Reed sees more here, but Fagnano has thrown 48 passes in two games. Tyler Huntley and Lamar Jackson won’t play. Fagnano’s experience in these two games has allowed him to get pretty deep into the playbook and he’s been really effective.
Minter has also ushered in a new culture in Baltimore. While the organization’s preseason success seems to have carried over from John Harbaugh, Minter has done it differently with shorter practices and more convenient practice times for players to avoid the heat. Many have raved about his ability to motivate players. Even with a lot of third and fourth-stringers here, I’d expect Minter to have them ready to go.
Saints vs. Cowboys Prediction
Friday, 8 p.m. ET
Pick: Cowboys -1.5 (-112)
It hasn’t been a pretty preseason for the Saints, who have been outscored 32-0 in the second half of their two games. With Tyler Shough entrenched as the starter, Spencer Rattler and Zach Wilson have been battling it out for the QB2 gig. Hunter Dekkers played in the first preseason game, but not the second one. We’ll see if he gets a look in this one. I expect that he would, since Kellen Moore probably knows who his backup will be already.
The Cowboys have Joe Milton and Sam Howell battling it out, though it certainly looks like Milton has the backup role so long as he doesn’t get hurt here. For a veteran like Howell, this game represents a really big opportunity to stand out and maybe garner some interest as other teams make cuts and try to figure out their backup situations.
A lot of those guys who have been on the field while New Orleans has gotten skunked in the second half will be playing a good bit of this game. With the Cowboys holding training camp in Oxnard, CA, this is their lone home game in Jerry World and it does seem like things are moving in a positive direction with the depth on the roster and second-year head coach Brian Schottenheimer.
In terms of teams being plugged in for the final preseason game, I would consider the Cowboys to be pretty high on the list. I can’t say the same for the Saints.
