MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Friday, August 28.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
7:10 PM Eastern
San Diego Padres vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Padres starting pitcher Casey Mize overall this season has a 3.44 ERA and 3.28 fielding independent with 0.9 home runs and 2.2 walks per nine innings, but has struggled since being traded from the Detroit Tigers to the San Diego Padres, registering a 7.00 ERA with five home runs allowed in 18 innings across four starts. Rays starting pitcher Shane McClanahan has a 3.10 ERA with 0.7 home runs per nine innings allowed, and since July 1, the Rays have the better bullpen with a 3.60 ERA, which ranks 10th in the league in that span, while the Padres are 13th with a 3.72 ERA.
Pick: Rays Moneyline -125
Greg’s Handicap: Rays -148
7:15 PM Eastern
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
Yankees starting pitcher Cam Schlittler has put himself toward the top of the Cy Young hunt with a 2.16 ERA, 11.1 strikeouts and two walks per nine innings, but has been a far better pitcher away from home, where he has a 1.14 ERA with 0.7 home runs per nine innings allowed compared to a 3.71 ERA at home with a full home run per nine innings allowed. Red Sox starting pitcher Patrick Sandoval has a 4.54 ERA in eight starts this season with 1.1 home runs and 4.1 walks per nine innings. While the Yankees have averaged under 3.8 runs per game in their past 52 games, the acquisition of Luis Garcia at the trade deadline and Cody Bellinger returning to the lineup are helping the offense, while the Red Sox lead the league in scoring since the All-Star Break with over 5.5 runs per game.
Pick: Red Sox vs. Yankees Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.7
Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Guardians
While the Royals and Guardians overall are in the bottom 10 in scoring this season, both have gotten hot in August, with the Guardians eighth in the league in scoring this month with nearly 4.8 runs per game and the Royals 10th with 4.6 runs per game. Royals starting pitcher Michael Wacha overall has a 3.49 ERA but a higher 4.18 fielding independent with 1.2 home runs and seven strikeouts per nine innings while being supported by a bullpen that ranks 29th out of 30 teams in ERA at 5.18. Guardians starting pitcher Tanner Bibee has a career-low 7.1 strikeouts per nine innings, and while his 3.97 ERA is respectable, he has a higher 4.61 fielding independent with 1.5 home runs per nine innings allowed.
Pick: Royals vs. Guardians Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.4
7:40 PM Eastern
Texas Rangers vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers starting pitcher Logan Henderson is putting together a really nice season, supplying a 2.80 ERA with 10.3 strikeouts and 1.8 walks per nine innings and has the support of a lineup that is fourth in scoring with over 4.9 runs per game. Rangers starting pitcher Cody Bradford has a 3.05 ERA and 3.18 fielding independent in four starts since coming off the injured list, but he is pitching to a lot of contact with only 5.7 strikeouts per nine innings. The Rangers are 28th in the league in bullpen ERA since July 1 at 5.33, while the Brewers’ 2.69 bullpen ERA in that span is the best mark among National League teams.
Pick: Brewers Run Line -1.5 +130
Greg’s Handicap: Brewers -1.5 -107
8:10 PM Eastern
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Pirates starting pitcher Jared Jones owns a 4.76 ERA, and while his 4.16 fielding independent and 10.2 strikeouts per nine innings are encouraging, he’s also allowing 1.5 home runs and 3.4 walks per nine innings. Cardinals starting pitcher Quinn Mathews has struggled in his three MLB starts, posting a 6.43 ERA with 4.5 walks per nine innings, and his walk issues go all the way back to the minor leagues, where he had 5.5 walks per nine innings. He now faces a Pirates lineup that ranks fifth in scoring with 4.9 runs per game, and both bullpens have issues, as the Pirates are 16th in bullpen ERA at 4.16 while the Cardinals are 24th at 4.50.
Pick: Pirates vs. Cardinals Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.7
