For the last 3-1/2 years or so, I have been tracking the results of the betting majorities at DraftKings according to the “splits” they provide to VSiN on a daily basis. This has been for virtually all of the sports that VSiN covers. In most cases, majority bettors at DraftKings are not successful. In fact, because of the market that DK serves, I would venture to say that their customer base is about as “public” as it comes. Anyone who has been around sports betting circles for the last 25 years or so, like I have, knows that fading the public consistently might be about the only long-running strategy that will produce consistent profits. Sure, there have been certain situations in each of the sports where these majorities have won in my studies, but overall, I would testify that they don’t.

A few years ago, I thought I would add another sport to the study group: NFL Preseason football. It is always a popular wager each August, as bettors with “football fever” are anxious to get going. I am here to update those preseason betting splits systems now that I have three full years of data. To summarize the findings, majority bettors have been bad on sides, but pretty good on totals. And as always, I will be using these findings over the next few weeks in our NFL Preseason Analytics Reports to point out spots in which bettors are backing teams, hoping, of course, the patterns continue.

Now, keep in mind that this data sample is much smaller than those I have studied for college and pro football, MLB, and basketball. However, it is also much more defined. Take a look at the overall results from the 147 games of the 2023-25 NFL preseasons.

– Majority handle on point spreads: 62-77 ATS (44.6%)
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 66-78 ATS (45.8%)
– Majority handle on totals: 74-69 (51.7%)
– Majority number of bets on totals: 81-64 (55.9%)

As you can see, in the two side categories, the majority saw noteworthy losses. In the majority handle totals category, bettors just about held serve, while in the majority bets total group, they have profited nicely. Interestingly, in the only category in which majorities have won, bettors were aided greatly by a very high-scoring 2025 preseason. They were able to shift gears quickly, as in the prior season, they sided mostly on Unders, a true rarity, and benefited with a 31-18 Under run.

Perhaps, if we should take anything away from this piece, it’s that DK bettors have had a great understanding of preseason totals the last few years. We’ll see if it continues this year. However, as always, I like to dig deeper, so I did and came up with some even more defined angles. You will find those at the end of this article.

Without further ado, here are the DK Betting Splits NFL Preseason Systems and their 2023-25 performance records that we will be posting and tracking over the next few weeks in the VSiN NFL Preseason Analytics Reports. Use these in conjunction with the other great handicapping trends and systems to make this your best preseason of betting ever:

We’ll start out the first three systems by simply fading all of the majorities as described earlier.

NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #1: Looking back at the 2023-25 NFL preseasons, majority handle bettors on sides have gone just 62-77 ATS (44.6%). Until proven otherwise, any August majority handle in the NFL should be faded.

NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #2: For the 2023-25 NFL preseasons, the majority bets group on sides was just 66-78 ATS (45.6%). This is another majority group that should be faded until further notice.

NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #3: Looking back at the 2023-25 NFL preseasons, majority bets group on totals was 81-64 ATS (55.9%). This is the only straightforward trend that we are encouraging you to follow bettors on in 2026.

NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #4: When the majority handle backed either team in a 2023-25 preseason game that had a point spread with one team favored by 3.5 points or higher, that majority group went just 29-40 ATS (42%). This is a drop-off from the 44.6% overall win rate in system #1, so worth further consideration.

NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #5: When the majority of the number of bets backed a 2023-25 NFL preseason team in a game with a point spread of 2.5 points or lower, that group was just 17-32 ATS (34.6%). This is 11% worse than the overall bets majority win rate. Look to fade the majority number of bettors in expected tight games this month.

NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority number of bets was 59% or greater on any home team in the 2023-25 NFL preseasons, that group went 22-31 ATS (41.5%). These bigger majorities also lost more than the overall groups by over 4%.

NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #7: Over the last two preseasons, in games between conference opponents, majority handle (14-20 ATS – 41.1%) and number of bets groups (13-20 – 39.4%) have struggled when backing one of the teams. While most preseason games are of the non-conference variety, this is another opportunity to fade majorities at a higher success rate.

Were there any systems in the 2023-25 NFL preseasons in which majorities actually won? Yes! Here are those few spots.

NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #8: For the 2023-25 NFL preseasons, majority bets groups of over 60% on road teams were 21-16 ATS (56.8%). This is an improvement of over 11% for majority groups, and I’m willing to endorse it since it goes so much against the grain.

NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #9: For the 2024 and 2025 NFL preseasons, the majority of bets on totals were 63-35 ATS (64.2%) when favoring either side of the total. This has been a massive win for majority groups, and since it happened almost equally in back-to-back years, it could be a trend to follow.

NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #10: For the 2023-25 NFL preseasons, majority handle groups of 63% or higher on totals were 52-31 ATS (62.7%), another very nice win by normal standards and something we will continue to track.

NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #11: When the majority of the handle backed either team in a 2024 and 2025 preseason game that saw a line move of 3 points or more from open to close, that group was 27-16 ATS (62.8%), a very strong return. It’s rare for bettors to trust the oddsmakers, and when they have, they’ve won. This creates a dangerous situation for those on the other side of the counter.

NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #12: In the 2023-24 NFL preseasons, the majority handle and number of bets bettors at DraftKings were 18-13 (58.1%) on totals in conference games. Not spectacular, but a profitable follow chance.

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Steve Makinen
Steve Makinen
As one of the original founders of StatFox, Steve Makinen has been in the business of sports betting and data analysis for almost 25 years now. In his time in the industry, Steve has worked in a variety of capacities on both sides of the betting counter, from his early days of developing the StatFox business, to almost a decade of oddsmaking consulting for one of the world's leading sportsbooks, to his last seven years as Point Spread Weekly and Analytics Director with VSiN. Steve has always believed that number crunching and handicapping through foundational trends and systems is the secret to success and he shares this data with VSiN readers on a daily basis for all of the major sports.

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