NFL rematch game betting trends


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NFL rematch game betting trends

Week 6 in the NFL presents an interesting analytics opportunity, as two of the handicapping strategies I like to monitor every season kick off this week. For one, the first post-bye week games of the season are played, and four teams that were off last week are back in action. I cover that subject in a whole other piece. For the purposes of this article, we also already face our first rematch game of the season, as Indianapolis and Jacksonville square off for the second time this season in a rematch of their opening week contest. The second- and/or third-time around games that teams play against one another can create some interesting betting opportunities. In this piece, I share some of the strategies for dealing with these games.

Because each of the NFL’s 32 teams plays their division opponent twice, there are 96 pre-scheduled rematch games on the NFL schedule each season, out of 272 total games. That makes up over 35% of the total number of contests, making it crucial to know the ins and outs of handicapping these same-season rematch games. Note that last critical adjective—same-season. This data only includes games played against a team a second (or third in case of playoffs) time in a given season.

Like any particular situational form of analysis, naturally, there are teams that perform better than others in the same season rematch scenario. There are also teams (and coaches) that are better or worse at adjusting to an opponent the second time around depending upon whether they won or lost in the first outing. I figured it might be most effective for readers if I pointed out some of the best info I was able to find from my analysis of the rematch data I organized. With that in mind, here are some of the top team trends I was able to uncover, followed by some leaguewide betting systems that you can put to use.

We will be adding this data to the VSiN NFL Analytics Report starting this week and qualifying the data for the appropriate matchups for the rest of the season.

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Best NFL rematch teams lately

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As one of the original founders of StatFox, Steve Makinen has been in the business of sports betting and data analysis for almost 25 years now. In his time in the industry, Steve has worked in a variety of capacities on both sides of the betting counter, from his early days of developing the StatFox business, to almost a decade of oddsmaking consulting for one of the world's leading sportsbooks, to his last seven years as Point Spread Weekly and Analytics Director with VSiN. Steve has always believed that number crunching and handicapping through foundational trends and systems is the secret to success and he shares this data with VSiN readers on a daily basis for all of the major sports.