NFL rookie quarterbacks test betting systems for 2023

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NFL rookie quarterbacks test betting systems in 2023 

After just one rookie quarterback saw significant playing time in 2022, this NFL season figures to bring at least three first-year starters, all of whom were picked in the first four selections of the NFL draft. The struggling franchises that picked these former stars don’t have the luxury of being patient, so they are thrusting their prized rookies into significant roles right out of the gate.

 

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With the importance of the quarterback position in the NFL, the decisions to give these guys starting spots immediately will have huge implications on the outright and betting results of their respective teams. As such, I’ve personally made it a habit of tracking rookie QB records and betting systems in recent seasons. Knowing how they perform historically is of great advantage when it comes to taking on the bookmakers. Thankfully, there have been some discernible patterns that have performed in regards to rookie quarterback performance, and bettors should take notice and take advantage.

According to most experts, the three quarterbacks drafted early this past April who will be getting chances to start in week one are Bryce Young of Carolina, CJ Stroud of Houston, and Anthony Richardson of Indianapolis. Interesting as well, all three will be operating new schemes for their teams as all three franchises replaced their coaching staffs in the offseason. Additionally, guys like Aidan O’Connell of Las Vegas, Stetson Bennett of the Rams, Sean Clifford of Green Bay, and Dorian Thompson-Robinson of Cleveland all had noteworthy preseason appearances and have elevated themselves to second string on their depth charts. If you consider that there are 272 regular season games, and three rookies may be starting at least 50 of them, with the potential for more depending upon injuries, coaching decisions, etc., understanding when these first-time signal callers perform at their best and worst levels is crucial.

Of course, not all of these guys will succeed. Their levels of achievement will vary greatly. Some may go on to become Super Bowl champion quarterbacks, others may settle in as solid starters for teams, some will flounder and have short careers, while others might become career journeymen. Whatever the case, without foundation-based historical analysis, football bettors typically have their hands full in getting to know these new players at the sport’s most crucial position.

In order to help readers get a jump on handicapping these rookie quarterbacks, I like to look back at how past rookies have fared in recent seasons. Of course, each new player will have to be evaluated on their own strengths, weaknesses, and team situation, but knowing how past players in similar spots have done or how those setting the odds judge these guys can only help.

What I’ve done is log all rookie quarterbacks in recent seasons who have started at least seven games in their initial season in the league. There were 52 such players since 2004, including five in 2021 alone. As you can see from the chart, the first players tracked are Ben Roethlisberger and Eli Manning, both eventual multi-time Super Bowl winners. In addition to analyzing the player-by-player performances for all 52 guys, I’ve also gone and uncovered some various betting systems that have been developed using these rookie quarterbacks. As a bettor, you should look to employ some of the more noteworthy systems when the time comes for any of our 2023 rookie class to be inserted as starters in their teams’ rotations.

As you look at the chart, one of the first things that you’ll want to digest is that the majority of these rookie quarterbacks do in fact help their teams improve. In fact, only 16 of the 52 teams showed a worse winning percentage in that new quarterback’s games started that rookie season than they did the prior season. Four maintained the same winning percentage while the other 32 helped their teams improve.  The combined success rate of the 43 rookies was 280-404-2 SU (40.9%) and 341-335-10 ATS (50.4%). Clearly, you can’t profit by simply backing these rookies and their teams blindly, neither on money lines or point spreads. That is where the systems below come in, guiding you to the spots in which they are best backed or faded.

VIEW CHART OF NFL ROOKIE QUARTERBACKS WHO STARTED 7+ GAMES SINCE 2004
 

Betting Systems Involving Rookie Quarterbacks

Using the 52-player sample dating back to 2004 and their individual game logs in that span, I was able to come up with several definitive betting systems, considering variables such as line ranges, home/road dichotomy, depth into the season, and type of opponent faced, among others. Let’s dig right into them:

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #1 – Rookie quarterbacks are trending downward

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Steve Makinen
As one of the original founders of StatFox, Steve Makinen has been in the business of sports betting and data analysis for almost 25 years now. In his time in the industry, Steve has worked in a variety of capacities on both sides of the betting counter, from his early days of developing the StatFox business, to almost a decade of oddsmaking consulting for one of the world's leading sportsbooks, to his last seven years as Point Spread Weekly and Analytics Director with VSiN. Steve has always believed that number crunching and handicapping through foundational trends and systems is the secret to success and he shares this data with VSiN readers on a daily basis for all of the major sports.