VSiN Analytics NFL Preseason Report for Week 3
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NFL preseason games of Week 3. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFLPS board.
Top NFL Resources:
- NFL Betting Hub
- NFL 2024 Week-By-Week Schedule
- Parlay Calculator
- NFL Betting Splits
- NFL Betting Odds
Note: lines cited were those as of Wednesday 8/23 3 p.m. ET via DraftKings
NFL Preseason Systematic Betting Concepts
The following systems were from the article NFL preseason betting concepts for 2023 posted the day prior to the NFL Hall-of-Fame Game
1. LINE RANGES have proven very telling
Oddsmakers have essentially led bettors to water in the preseason, although it is easy to see how these prices can seem tricky to bettors. Since 2010, there have been 12 teams that have been favored by more than seven points. Nine of these heavy favorites won their games outright, however, they were 4-8 ATS (LAST WEEK went 1-0 ATS). At the same time, favorites in the “sweet spot” range of -3.5 to -7 have been quite reliable, going 137-108-4 ATS for 55.9% (LAST WEEK went 3-4 ATS). Most games, however, tend to land in the -1 to -3 range, and those contests are where the underdogs THRIVE. Since 2015, underdogs in the +1 to +3 range own a highly profitable record of 159-108 ATS (LAST WEEK went 5-3 ATS), good for 59.5%!
System Match(es):
Favorites more than -7: FADE SAN FRANCISCO
Favorites -3.5 to -7 (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH, INDIANAPOLIS, CAROLINA, , NY JETS, WASHINGTON, JACKSONVILLE, LAS VEGAS, DENVER, NEW ORLEANS
Underdogs +1 to +3 (PLAY ALL): TENNESSEE, KANSAS CITY, BUFFALO, SEATTLE, ARIZONA, BALTIMORE
2. HOME FIELD advantage usually means very little in tight-lined games
In looking at the home/road results of the last 11 NFL preseasons, there have been only two years where home teams finished with a record of better than .500 ATS, including last year, the most profitable at 28-17 ATS. If you’re simply guessing on these games, or wagering them for fun, side with the road teams, as the points given to hosts by oddsmakers for their “home-field advantage” tend to tip the ATS ledger to the visitors. In fact, since 2011, road teams own a 363-319 ATS edge (LAST WEEK went 11-5 ATS), good for 53.2%, and essentially enough to make a reasonable profit. However, the absolute best time to back road teams is in spots where they are underdogs of 2.5 points or less, as they have gone 74-36 ATS as such since 2015 (LAST WEEK went 2-0 SU), good for 67.3%!
System Match(es):
Road Underdog of 2.5 points or less (PLAY BOTH): BUFFALO, ARIZONA, BALTIMORE
3. “37” is a MAGIC NUMBER for totals
Since 2010 in the NFL preseason, the number 37 has proven to be quite the benchmark in terms of totals. Totals less than 37 have gone OVER at a rate of 58.6% (276-195) (LAST WEEK went 1-1 ATS), while those 37 or higher have gone UNDER at a 56.6% clip (521-399) (LAST WEEK was bad, went 5-8-1 ATS). Take away the regular occurrence of UNDER’s in the HOF game and that first trend is even greater.
Totals < 37 (PLAY OVER): ARI-MIN OVER 36, BAL-TB OVER 36.5, LAR-DEN OVER 36.5
Totals >=37 (PLAY UNDER): ALL OTHER GAMES HAVE A CURRENT TOTAL >= 37
4. Teams off double-digit losses are bad bets at home, good on the road
Double-digit games are noteworthy as indicators of the potential performance of the losing team in the follow-up game. When these teams played at home the following week, they have gone just 34-48 ATS (41.5%) since 2013 (LAST WEEK these teams went 1-2 ATS). When they faced their next contest on the road, they performed well, 51-38 ATS (57.3%) in that same time span (LAST WEEK these teams went 5-0 ATS!). This 15.8% variance is something you are going to want to give consideration to in the final two weeks of this year’s preseason.
System Match(es):
DD-Loss LG Teams now playing on the ROAD (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, ARIZONA, BUFFALO, LA RAMS, HOUSTON
5. Teams that scored very well last game tend to come back down to earth
Offensive outbursts one week don’t tend to carry over to the next game in the preseason, as teams that scored 34 points or more in their previous exhibition game have gone just 11-16 SU and 10-16-1 ATS (38.5%) since 2015 (LAST WEEK these teams went 1-2 ATS). Only one of these of these 27 teams reached 30 again the next week.
System Match(es):
Teams who scored 34+ LG: FADE KANSAS CITY, FADE LAS VEGAS
6. Teams that didn’t score well at all are good Over bets for the next game
Struggling offenses tend to bounce back well in the next outing of the preseason as teams that were held to fewer than 10 points in their previous preseason contest have gone 76-56-1 Over the total (57.6%) in the next game since 2010 (LAST WEEK went 3-1 O/U). These teams averaged 20.3 PPG in the next contest while giving up 20.8.
System Match(es):
PLAY OVER: DET-CAR, NYJ-NYG, HOU-NO
7. Fade HOME teams that had huge defensive efforts last time out
Teams playing at home after allowing seven points or fewer in their previous preseason game are just 18-28-1 SU & 15-30-2 ATS (33.3%) since ’10 (LAST WEEK these teams went 0-2 ATS). Their average points allowed in the follow-up contest balloons to 20.2 PPG, a lofty total by preseason standards.
System Match(es): FADE TAMPA BAY, FADE JACKSONVILLE
This week’s NFLPS Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com (*parenthesis is difference between rating and actual*):
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen Power Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ATLANTA +4.5 (+4.8), 2. LA CHARGERS +7.5 (+3.5), 3. BALTIMORE +1 (+3.2), 4. MIAMI +6 (+3.1), 5. TENNESSEE +2 (+2.6)
This week’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. WASHINGTON -4.5 (+0.7), 2. MINNESOTA -1 (+0.3)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ATLANTA +4.5 (+6.1), 2. BUFFALO +1 (+3.9), 3. LA CHARGERS +7.5 (+3.7), 4. ARIZONA +1 (+2.6), 5. MIAMI +6 (+1.6)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. WASHINGTON -4.5 (+1.3), 2. DENVER -6 (+0.4), 3(tie). CAROLINA -4.5 (+0.2) and TAMPA BAY -1 (+0.2) and NEW ORLEANS -3.5 (+0.2)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SEA-GB OVER 39.5 (+3.1), 2(tie). CIN-WAS OVER 37 (+1.3) and BAL-TB OVER 36.5 (+1.3), 4. ARI-MIN OVER 36 (+1.0), 5. IND-PHI OVER 38 (+0.6)
This week’s Top 4 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NYJ-NYG UNDER 39 (-3.4), 2. BUF-CHI UNDER 39 (-2.9), 3(tie). LVR-DAL UNDER 38 (-1.2) and LAR-DEN UNDER 36.5 (-1.2)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ATLANTA +4.5 (+5.0), 2. BALTIMORE +1 (+4.6), 3. LA CHARGERS +7.5 (+3.6), 4(tie). BUFFALO +1 (+3.3) and MIAMI +6 (+3.3)
This week’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAS VEGAS -5 (+0.8), 2. MINNESOTA -1 (+0.7), 3. WASHINGTON -4.5 (+0.5)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAR-DEN OVER 36.5 (+2.4), 2. BAL-TB OVER 36.5 (+2.2), 3. ARI-MIN OVER 36 (+1.9), 4. LVR-DAL OVER 38 (+1.5), 5(tie). IND-PHI OVER 38 (+1.0) and HOU-NO OVER 38.5 (+1.0)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIA-JAX UNDER 41 (-4.0), 2. CLE-KC UNDER 41.5 (-3.4), 3. DET-CAR UNDER 37 (-2.0), 4. NE-TEN UNDER 38.5 (-0.9), 5. NYJ-NYG UNDER 39 (-0.6)
Top NFL Preseason Team Situational Trends
These are some of the top situational trends that have developed with teams in recent years of preseason action:
Overall Trends
– ATLANTA is on a 5-17-1 SU and 5-18 ATS skid in the preseason
Trend Match: FADE ATLANTA (+4.5 vs PITTSBURGH)
– Baltimore is 24-6-1 ATS in the last 31 preseason games (did lose last time out)
Trend Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (+1 @ TAMPA BAY)
– BUFFALO is on a 11-2 SU and ATS surge in the preseason
Trend Match: PLAY BUFFALO (+1 @ CHICAGO)
– DALLAS is 8-23-3 ATS in its last 34 preseason games
Trend Match: FADE DALLAS (+5 vs LAS VEGAS)
– DENVER is 11-3 UNDER the total in its last 14 preseason games
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER in LAR-DEN (o/u at 36.5)
– DETROIT has won just three of its last 18 preseason games outright, allowing 25.4 PPG, and is 4-12-1 ATS in its last 17 preseason games
Trend Match: FADE DETROIT (+4.5 @ CAROLINA)
– LAS VEGAS is on an impressive 12-3 SU and ATS preseason surge
Trend Match: PLAY LAS VEGAS (-5 @ DALLAS)
– MIAMI has gone 9-4 SU and 10-3 ATS in its last 13 preseason contests
Trend Match: PLAY MIAMI (+7 @ JACKSONVILLE)
– NEW ORLEANS has gone 16-6-1 UNDER the total in its last 23 preseason tilts
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER in HOU-NO (o/u at 38)
– The NY JETS has been solid, going 7-2-1 SU and 7-3 ATS in its last 10 preseason games
Trend Match: PLAY NY JETS (-4.5 vs NY GIANTS)
– PHILADELPHIA has gone 3-12-2 SU and 4-12-1 ATS in its last 17 preseason games
Trend Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (+4.5 vs INDIANAPOLIS)
– WASHINGTON is just 4-10 SU and ATS in its last 14 preseason games
Trend Match: FADE WASHINGTON (-4.5 vs CINCINNATI)
Home/Road Trends
– ATLANTA is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 preseason home games
Trend Match: FADE ATLANTA (+4.5 vs PITTSBURGH)
– BALTIMORE is 11-1-1 ATS in its last 13 preseason road games
Trend Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (+1 @ TAMPA BAY)
– CINCINNATI has gone 8-1 ATS in its last nine road preseason tilts
Trend Match: PLAY CINCINNATI (+4.5 @ WASHINGTON)
– CLEVELAND boasts an 8-1-1 SU and 9-1 ATS mark in its last 10 road preseason contests
Trend Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-2 @ KANSAS CITY)
– GREEN BAY is on a 10-3 SU and ATS run at home in the preseason
Trend Match: PLAY GREEN BAY (-3 vs SEATTLE)
– INDIANAPOLIS is on a 9-3-1 ATS surge on the preseason road
Trend Match: PLAY INDIANAPOLIS (-4.5 @ PHILADELPHIA)
– JACKSONVILLE home preseason games have been a struggle, 4-13 SU and 4-12-1 ATS in its last 17
Trend Match: FADE JACKSONVILLE (-7 vs MIAMI)
– NEW ENGLAND is 11-5 UNDER the total in its last 16 preseason road affairs
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER in NE-TEN (o/u at 38.5)
– Since 2013, TAMPA BAY is just 4-14 SU and 3-15 ATS in home preseason contests
Trend Match: FADE TAMPA BAY (-1 vs BALTIMORE)
– WASHINGTON is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven home preseason games
Trend Match: FADE WASHINGTON (-4.5 vs CINCINNATI)
Off SU Win/Loss Trends
– CAROLINA is on 11-3 SU and 11-2-1 ATS run in its last 14 preseason games following a loss the week prior
Trend Match: PLAY CAROLINA (-4.5 vs DETROIT)
– CHICAGO has gone 6-0 OVER the total in its last six games following up a preseason loss
Trend Match: PLAY OVER in BUF-CHI (o/u at 39)
– DALLAS is 4-15-2 ATS in the last 21 preseason games following a loss
Trend Match: FADE DALLAS (+5 vs LAS VEGAS)
– DETROIT has gone 9-0 OVER the total in its last nine games following a preseason loss
Trend Match: PLAY OVER in DET-CAR (o/u at 37)
– HOUSTON is 8-1 SU & ATS in its last nine games rebounding from a preseason loss
Trend Match: PLAY HOUSTON (+3.5 @ NEW ORLEANS)
– LA RAMS are on 7-1 surge to the UNDER in next game following a preseason loss
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER in LAR-DEN (o/u at 36.5)
– NEW ORLEANS has gone 8-1 to UNDER the total in the last nine games following up a preseason win
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER in HOU-NO (o/u at 38)
– SEATTLE is 14-3 SU and 13-4 ATS in its last 17 preseason games following up a win the week prior
Trend Match: PLAY SEATTLE (+3 @ GREEN BAY)
Favorite/Underdog Trends
– BUFFALO is on an 9-1 SU and ATS surge as a preseason underdog
Trend Match: PLAY BUFFALO (+1 @ CHICAGO)
– CHICAGO is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 as chalk
Trend Match: FADE CHICAGO (-1 vs BUFFALO)
– CINCINNATI is on an 8-2 ATS surge as a preseason underdog
Trend Match: PLAY CINCINNATI (+4.5 @ WASHINGTON)
– DENVER is 11-3 UNDER the total in its last 14 as a preseason favorite, allowing just 12.5 PPG
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER in LAR-DEN (o/u at 36.5)
– JACKSONVILLE is just 5-9 SU and ATS in the last 14 when laying points in the preseason
Trend Match: FADE JACKSONVILLE (-7 vs MIAMI)
– NY GIANTS are 9-2 ATS in the last 11 as preseason underdogs
Trend Match: PLAY NY GIANTS (+4.5 vs NY JETS)
– TAMPA BAY is 5-11 SU and 4-12 ATS in its last 16 as preseason favorite
Trend Match: FADE TAMPA BAY (-1 vs BALTIMORE)
Top NFLPS Head-to-Head Series Trends
These are the top head-to-head series trends between teams from recent years’ preseason action:
8/26/23 – (x) CINCINNATI at (x) WASHINGTON
* The last four games in the CIN-WAS preseason head-to-head series went Under the total
System Match: PLAY UNDER
8/27/23 – (x) HOUSTON at (x) NEW ORLEANS
* The last four games in the HOU-NO preseason head-to-head series went Under the total
System Match: PLAY UNDER
