NFL Survivor
I’ll start this season’s Week 1 NFL Survivor article the same way I started last year’s.
Survive and advance.
Survivor pools seem so easy on the surface. How hard can it be to pick a team to win the game? After all, per the KillerSports database, favorites of -3 or higher were 163-48 outright last season for a 77.3% win percentage. Sixteen of those 48 losses, though, came as a favorite of 7 or more. And all it takes is one slip-up for your Survivor entry to be gone.
I had some pieces of advice in our NFL 2.0 Betting Guide in terms of Survivor strategies, but I can give you the cliff notes version here. I also wrote up my Circa Survivor Blueprint article back in May (and forgot to post it until July!) where I mapped out the season well in advance, isolating when I wanted to use teams and when I wanted to save teams.
And that’s my biggest piece of advice. You want to go 1-0 every week, but you also want to be able to position yourself to go 18-0 (or 20-0 in Circa Survivor or contests that follow those rules). So you need to live in the present, but also be very much aware of the future. To have a perfect record in this contest, you have to take more than half of the NFL’s 32 teams. That means taking several non-elite teams. Those can be sweats, but if you plot out a course, you can find situations when you are more comfortable taking teams like that than others.
Until I pick a loser in this article, I will treat this like a Survivor entry and not double up on any teams I’ve previously used. Also, I try to be very cognizant of which teams are likely to be available to contestants as the season goes along. If it’s Week 16, the Bills, Chiefs, Eagles, etc. have probably been used. I’m not going to act like they’re available just to try and pick a winner. I try to make the information and analysis as time-relevant as possible.
Also, I’ll be implementing some tools from our pals over at PoolGenius, where I am also in their PoolGenius Survivor Bowl, including Stormy Buonantony, Matt Brown, Jonathan Von Tobel, Kelley Bydlon, Will Hill, and Ben Stevens, as well as several other sports betting media members.
PoolGenius has great NFL Survivor Tools and also NFL Pick ‘Em Tools for you to check out. For this season, they also have Circa Survivor tools set up to account for the holiday weeks. I will be using Circa Survivor rules for this article, so I’ll also be picking Thanksgiving and Christmas “weeks”.
Alright, here we go. Good luck to all this season!
Week 1 NFL Survivor Teams to Consider
Philadelphia Eagles (-8) over Dallas Cowboys
The Thursday Night Football game can be very scary to take, but this is not the short week that it usually is and the Eagles have grown to over a TD favorite in the betting market based on the Micah Parsons trade and a lot of questions about the Cowboys’ mindset coming into the season.
There is also a silver lining here in that an Eagles loss does allow you to buy back into your Survivor pool depending on the rules, as many have a sign-up deadline of Saturday. While I don’t think it’s a bad strategy, the Eagles also play on Black Friday, so they’re one of the eight Thanksgiving teams if your contest has that wrinkle. Also, there will be other times you can use them when there are fewer options, even if Week 1 is a bit terrifying.
PoolGenius gives the Eagles a 79% win probability – the highest for Week 1.
Washington Commanders (-6) over New York Giants
Many Survivor players try to avoid division games when possible because the familiarity between the teams can definitely lead to some crazy things. The Commanders certainly look to be a few notches above the Giants, though Russell Wilson may inject some new life into the G-Men and they were one of the more impressive teams during the preseason.
Washington is a Christmas consideration if you are in a Survivor contest with that wrinkle. Per PoolGenius, the only week with a higher win probability for the Commanders is Week 3 against the Raiders at home (71%). They are 66% this week.
Arizona Cardinals (-6.5) over New Orleans Saints
Back in 2023, my partner Marc “Spooky” Goldberg of SpookyExpress.com and I made it down to the final 13. I wouldn’t say that we had a strict policy of never taking a road team, but we rarely had road teams as part of the consideration process. Travel is absolutely more comfortable than ever and Week 1 might be the time to take a road team, given that they aren’t forced into any time constraints or missing out on any practices to travel.
Also, the Saints might be a home team to look to go against a lot this season as the co-favorite in the Fewest Wins market at DraftKings throughout most of the summer. Still, trusting Kyler Murray and Jonathan Gannon to be ready from the jump does feel a tad bit scary. Nevertheless, the Cardinals are at 75% win probability per PoolGenius and that is their highest percentage of the season as of now.
NFL Week 1 Survivor Pick
Denver Broncos (-8.5) over Tennessee Titans
Look, there are going to be pros and cons for every team and you’ll never feel completely comfortable, no matter what the spread says. The Broncos are expected to have one of the league’s elite defenses again and rookie Cam Ward will be making his first career NFL start against that unit.
The Titans also have to play in elevation. Per the KillerSports database, the Broncos are 34-8 SU in Weeks 1 and 2 at home dating back to the 1990 season. Of course, that being said, they have lost three of those games in a row. So, it is by no means perfect or foolproof. No game ever will be. But, the Broncos started 0-2 last season with a rookie QB of their own in Bo Nix and then went 10-5 the rest of the way in the regular season and finished with a 6-2 record at home, including six wins in their final seven home games.
Yes, you are going to align with a lot of people on this game, but “survive and advance”. You can start thinking more about the game theory and your ability to zig and zag later on. For now, the goal is just to make it to Week 2 and keep the dream alive. Tennessee was -149 in point differential last season. The Broncos were third behind the Bills and Ravens (both +157) at +114, leading the AFC West. It’s hard to imagine that much changed over the summer between the two teams and while the Titans are better, you could argue that the Broncos are better, too. The Broncos are 78% to win per PoolGenius, second among teams this week and their highest win probability for the season as of now.
Week 1 NFL Survivor Pick: Broncos
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