The following NFL betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NFL Divisional games. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFL board.

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top NFL betting trends and systems for this week’s NFL games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Home teams have dominated in the WAS-DET series, going 12-3 SU and ATS since 1995
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-9.5 vs. WAS) 

* KANSAS CITY’s Andy Reid is 33-11 Under the total as a home favorite of 7 points or more since 2011
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-KC (o/u at 41.5) 

*Teams that won by 21 or more points in the opening game between teams are 85-27 SU and 70-42 ATS (62.5%) in the rematch
System Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-1.5 at BUF) 

* PHILADELPHIA is 12-4 SU and 13-2-1 ATS versus Rams since 1995
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-6 vs. LAR) 

*LA Rams 16-6 Primetime Under surge
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LAR-PHI (o/u at 43.5)

* BALTIMORE’s John Harbaugh is 17-5 UNDER the total in January games since 2012

Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BAL-BUF (o/u at 51.5) 

*Since 2015, rookie starting quarterbacks facing underdog lines of 6.5 points or more have won just 20 games, going 20-124 SU and 56-84-4 ATS (40%).
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+9.5 at DET)

#1 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen BETTOR RATINGS projections: HOUSTON +8.5 at KC (+3.8 difference)

Strategies Using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published in the 2024 NFL Betting Guide, Steve Makinen outlined 12 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022 and 2023 seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of Wednesday afternoon. These can AND WILL change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage. 

Here are the NFL betting trends and systems with updated language and records we will continue to track for the rest of the 2024 season. 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #1: Over the past two-plus seasons, when more than 65% of the handle has been on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group is just 130-139 ATS (48.3%). The number for this “super-majority” in college football was closer to 80%. The record for this year has been 34-28 ATS, including 21-9 ATS backing road teams. It’s hard to see this one continuing. We will continue to recommend that if you see 2/3 of the handle backing one side in an NFL game this season, it’s consistently profitable to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NONE YET

NFL DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority number of bets was on road underdogs for an ATS wager, these majority groups have actually produced adequate records, 71-65 ATS (52.2%) going back to September 2022. This matches up somewhat with the logic I used in explaining some college successes. When the public goes “against the grain,” they can do well.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): HOUSTON, WASHINGTON, LA RAMS 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #8: In another rare winning record, when the majority of the handle has backed the team with fewer season wins in a 2022-24 NFL game for an ATS wager, this majority group is 69-56 ATS (55.2%). This has proven to be another situation in which going against the grain pays off.
System Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE 

The following are some new money line systems we will be employing going forward… 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle has backed a team in a money line wager but not real strongly (in the 40%-60%) range, they have really struggled in 2024, going 16-26 for -13.71 units of loss, an ROI of -32.6%. It seems that conviction is an important thing when majority groups get together. If it seems as if the DK betting public might be “guessing” as to who wins, fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA ML, BALTIMORE ML 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #10: Super majority handle bettors of more than 75% have also struggled in games when backing bigger favorites on money lines. In games with point spreads of -4.5 or higher (approx. -225 or more ML), this super majority group has gone just 23-13 but for -15.53 units of loss, an ROI of -43.1% in 2024. Public bettors tend to look at these games as more “automatic” wagers, and as you can tell, they aren’t.
System Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY ML

These next systems cover totals…

NFL DK Betting Splits system #12: Since 2022, the average NFL total has been right around 44 or a tic higher. Since mid-2023, majority handle bettors have been very sharp in dealing with totals at or below that number (44 or less). In fact, since November 2023, these groups have gone 97-66 (59.5%)! It’s in the higher totaled games that they typically fare worse.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): HOU-KC, LAR-PHI 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #13: When 56% or more of the handle has been on the Under in an NFL game total over the last two seasons, this majority group has been quite sharp, 70-52 ATS (57.4%). This number for a “super-majority” in the NFL is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total. Incidentally, the same majority figure for the number of bets has also produced a 54-39 (58.1%) record.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): WAS-DET

Here are some of the best ways to take advantage of playoff-specific data, qualified for this week’s matchups:

Line Range/Matchup Betting Systems

– Home underdogs in NFL playoff games are currently on an 8-4 SU and 10-2 ATS run heading into the 2025 postseason. This trend dates back to 2016.
Trend Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (+1.5 vs. BAL)

– The most vulnerable home teams in recent NFL playoffs in terms of covering lines have been those priced in the -7 to -9.5 line range, as they are 30-10 SU but just 14-25-1 ATS (35.9%) since 2011.
System Matches (FADE ALL ATS): KANSAS CITY (-8.5 vs. HOU), DETROIT (-9.5 vs. WAS)

– Home teams that won 1 or 2 games more in the regular season than their visiting opponent but are favored by 3 points or fewer (or are underdogs) have been very vulnerable, going 11-20 SU and 10-21 ATS (32.3%) in their last 31 playoff tries.
System Match (FADE): BUFFALO (+1.5 vs. BAL) 

Team Statistical Betting Systems

– Road teams scoring less than 22.5 PPG have struggled terribly in the NFL playoffs, going 8-27 SU and 11-24 ATS (31.4%) since 2009.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON (+8.5 at KC), LA RAMS (+6 at PHI) 

– Road teams averaging 7.5 or more yards per pass attempt have been dangerous in playoffs, going 29-35 SU but 40-22-2 ATS (64.5%) since 2004.
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+9.5 at DET)

– Home teams allowing more than 7.0 yards per pass attempt have been quite unreliable for bettors in the postseason, going 12-11 SU but 7-15-1 (31.8%) ATS since 2012.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-9.5 vs. WAS) 

– Home teams allowing 5.5 or fewer yards per pass attempt have been solid bets in the playoffs, going 20-7 SU and 17-10 ATS (63%) since 2002.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-6 vs. LAR) 

– Road teams that avoid turnovers (<=1.0 giveaways per game) have surprisingly not fared well in the playoffs of late, going 3-19 SU and 7-15 ATS (31.8%) since 2004.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+9.5 at DET), LA RAMS (+6 at PHI), BALTIMORE (-1.5 at BUF) 

– Home teams scoring 30+ points per game but not installed as double-digit favorites have not been good betting options in the postseason, going 20-14 SU but 13-21 ATS (38.2%) since 2004.
System Matches (FADE  ALL ATS): DETROIT (-9.5 vs. WAS), BUFFALO (+1.5 vs. BAL)

These are some of the top situational NFL betting trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action: 

(387) HOUSTON at (388) KANSAS CITY
* HOUSTON’s DeMeco Ryans is on 12-5 Under the total surge vs. teams with a winning record
* HOUSTON’s CJ Stroud is 13-7 Under the total in the last 20 games with his team coming off a win
Trends Match: PLAY UNDER the total in HOU-KC (o/u at 41.5)

* KANSAS CITY is 73-39 Under the total as a home favorite since 2010
* KANSAS CITY’s Andy Reid is 33-11 Under the total as a home favorite of 7 points or more since 2011
* KANSAS CITY’s Patrick Mahomes (KC) is 33-2 SU but 12-22-1 ATS (35.3%) in his last 35 games as a favorite of more than 7 points (the average line was -10.7, team average PF: 27.8)
Trends Match: FADE KANSAS CITY ATS (-8.5 vs HOU), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 41.5) 

(389) WASHINGTON at (390) DETROIT
* WASHINGTON is 13-11 SU and 18-5 ATS when coming off an upset win since 2018
* WASHINGTON is 26-10 OVER the total when playing on short rest (<7 days) since 2011
* WASHINGTON is 25-12-1 ATS (67.6%) when coming off a SU win since 2019
Trends Match: PLAY WASHINGTON (+9.5 at DET), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 55.5)

* DETROIT is 17-4 SU and ATS when coming off a double-digit win since 2018
* DETROIT is 14-7 SU and 18-4 ATS when playing with extra rest (>7 days) since 2019
* DETROIT is 23-9-1 ATS (71.9%) at home since 2021
* DETROIT is on 19-10 SU and 21-7-1 ATS run vs. teams with a winning record
* DETROIT’s Jared Goff is 9-5 SU but 4-10 ATS as a home favorite of more than 7 points since 2018
Trends Match: 4 PLAYS, 1 FADE of DETROIT (-9.5 vs. WAS) 

(391) LA RAMS at (392) PHILADELPHIA
* LA RAMS are 16-5 SU and 16-4 ATS when playing on short rest (<7 days) since 2018
* LA RAMS’ Matthew Stafford is 34-62 SU and 35-59 ATS vs. teams with winning records since 2011
* LA RAMS’ Matthew Stafford is 20-12 Over the total with his team playing on short rest (<7 days) since 2012
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of LA RAMS (+6 at PHI), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 43.5)

* PHILADELPHIA is 19-8 Over the total when coming off a home win since 2021
* PHILADELPHIA is 20-3 Under the total in January games since 2011
* PHILADELPHIA’s Nick Sirianni boasts a 20-2 SU and 16-5 ATS record as a single-digit home favorite since 2021
* PHILADELPHIA is Jalen Hurts is 24-3 SU and 16-10-1 ATS (61.5%) as a home favorite (the average line was -7.4, team average PF: 29.2)
Trends Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-6 vs LAR), also 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 43.5) 

(393) BALTIMORE at (394) BUFFALO
* BALTIMORE is 14-12 SU and 19-6 ATS vs. elite teams with winning percentages >=66.7% since 2020
* BALTIMORE is 44-22 ATS (66.7%) in road/neutral games since 2017
* BALTIMORE’s John Harbaugh is 17-5 Under the total in January games since 2012
* BALTIMORE’s John Harbaugh is on an 8-2 SU and 9-0 ATS run vs. elite offenses scoring >=27 PPG
Trends Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (-1.5 at BUF), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 51.5)

* BUFFALO is 39-28 ATS (58.2%) in non-divisional conference games since 2017
Trend Match: PLAY BUFFALO (+1.5 vs. BAL)

NFL Rookie Quarterback Systems

These systems take into account rookie quarterback records in their first seasons. They include game logs of any rookie who started seven or more games in that first season. The lone starter this week is Jayden Daniels (Washington).

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #2 – Rookie quarterbacks are a risky bet in the postseason
 In their last 18 playoff games, rookie quarterbacks are just 6-12 SU and ATS (33.3%). Take away Joe Flacco’s 2009 run and the record drops to 4-11 SU and ATS.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+9.5 at DET)

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Rookie quarterbacks have struggled on the road, particularly late in the season
The results of rookie quarterbacks on the road lately are startling. Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie starters have combined for a record of 124-118-1 ATS (51.2%) in home games but just 107-132-2 ATS (44.8%) in road/neutral games. In later season road games, week 10-EOY, they are just 38-108 SU and 60-84-2 ATS (41.7%).
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+9.5 at DET) 

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #6 – Don’t fall for the big underdog point spreads with rookie quarterbacks
Since 2015, rookie starting quarterbacks facing underdog lines of 6.5 points or more have won just 20 games, going 20-124 SU and 56-84-4 ATS (40%).
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+9.5 at DET)

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #10 – By type of opponent, non-divisional conference matchups have been better ATS for rookie starting quarterbacks
Since 2018, rookie QBs have fared well against non-divisional conference opponents, going 54-65 SU but 67-51-1 ATS (56.8%).
System Match (PLAY ATS): WASHINGTON (+9.5 at DET) 

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #12 – Non-Sunday games have been a respite for rookie QBs
Rookie quarterbacks have fared reasonably well under the spotlight of non-Sunday games lately, going 19-25 SU but 26-16-2 ATS (61.9%) in their last 44 such tries. Moreover, they are 20-7-1 ATS (74.1%) in their last 28 Monday Night contests.
System Match (PLAY ATS): WASHINGTON (+9.5 at DET) 

NFL Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NFL games and detail the results of the follow-up game for these teams.

SHUTOUTS ARE EXTREMES
 Teams that get shut out in a game have been solid bounce-back teams in the next outing, going 26-36 SU but 36-24-2 ATS (60%) since 2012.
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-8.5 vs HOU)

If you’ve picked up from each of the team trends sections that certain teams are consistently doing well or poorly, or are going Over or Under regularly, you’re right. Here are some overall primetime game trends that you’re going to want to consider:

Good PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trends
Baltimore 28-11 SU and 25-13-1 ATS last 39
Buffalo 16-6 SU and 13-9 ATS primetime run
Trends Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE and BUFFALO play each other 

Bad PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trends
Washington 13-22 and 12-22-1 ATS in primetime since 2013
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+9.5 at DET)

UNDER the total PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trends
LA Rams 16-6 Under surge
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LAR-PHI (o/u at 43.5)

NFL Streaks Provide Some Advantages for Bettors

The following betting systems were part of an article released in Week 8 of the 2023 NFL season focusing on winning and losing streaks. There were 15 different systems cited. 

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

Handicapping NFL Rematch Games

The following trends and betting systems come from same-season rematch data over the last 13 seasons 

Worst NFL rematch teams lately
–  Philadelphia: just 8-12 SU and 6-13-1 ATS in the last 20 rematch games
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-6 vs. LAR)

Best NFL home rematch teams lately
–  Buffalo: 18-5 SU and 13-10 ATS in the last 23 home rematches, scoring 30.1 PPG
Trend Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (+1.5 vs. BAL)

Best NFL ROAD rematch teams lately
–  Baltimore: 15-3 ATS in the last 18 rematch road game

–  LA Rams: 10-3 SU and 12-1 ATS in the last 13 on road
Trends Match (PLAY ALL): LA RAMS (+6 at PHI), BALTIMORE (-1.5 at BUF)

Worst NFL road rematch teams lately
–  Houston: 7-8 SU and 5-10 ATS in the last 15 road rematches
Trend Match (FADE): HOUSTON (+8.5 at KC) 

Rematch Betting Systems
Teams that lost the prior same-season game versus an opponent by 21 points or more are just 1-14 SU and 5-10 ATS (33.3%) in the playoffs since 2012, including 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS at home.
System Match (FADE): BUFFALO (+1.5 vs. BAL)

This Week’s NFL Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis). 

This week’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BUFFALO +1.5 (+2.7)
2. WASHINGTON +9.5 (+2.0)
3. HOUSTON +8.5 (+0.7) 

This week’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: PHILADELPHIA -6 (+1.3) 

This week’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. HOUSTON +8.5 (+1.9)
2. BUFFALO +1.5 (+0.1)

This week’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DETROIT -9.5 (+1.3)
2. PHILADELPHIA -6 (+0.1) 

This week’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LAR-PHI OVER 43.5 (+0.5)
2(tie). HOU-KC OVER 41.5 (+0.2)
BAL-BUF OVER 51.5 (+0.2) 

This week’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: WAS-DET UNDER 55.5 (-1.6)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. HOUSTON +8.5 (+3.8)
2. WASHINGTON +9.5 (+3.6)
3. BUFFALO +1.5 (+2.1) 

This week’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: PHILADELPHIA -6 (+0.3) 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LAR-PHI OVER 43.5 (+1.5)
2. HOU-KC OVER 41.5 (+1.0)
3. BAL-BUF OVER 51.5 (+0.2)

This week’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: WAS-DET UNDER 55.5 (-2.2) 

These are the top head-to-head series NFL betting trends between teams from recent years’ action:

(387) HOUSTON at (388) KANSAS CITY
* Over the total has converted in six straight meetings between HOU and KC
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total

* Favorites are on runs of 12-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in the HOU-KC series
Trend Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY 

(389) WASHINGTON at (390) DETROIT
* Home teams have dominated in the WAS-DET series, going 12-3 SU and ATS since 1995
Trend Match: PLAY DETROIT 

(391) LA RAMS at (392) PHILADELPHIA
* PHILADELPHIA is 12-4 SU and 13-2-1 ATS versus Rams since 1995
Trend Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA ATS

* Over the total is 5-1 in the last six of the LAR-PHI series
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total

(393) BALTIMORE at (394) BUFFALO
* BALTIMORE is 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS in the last six games versus Buffalo
Trend Match: PLAY BUFFALO ATS

* Under the total is 10-2 in the BAL-BUF meetings since 1999
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total

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