The following NFL betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NFL games of January 17, 2026, and January 18, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFL board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NFL betting trends and systems for this week’s NFL games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* #1 seeds playing as small home favorites of 7 points or less are on an ugly 4-12-1 ATS (25%) slide in the divisional round.
Trend Matches (FADE ALL): DENVER (-1.5 vs BUF), SEATTLE (-7 vs SF) 

* In the divisional round, non-returning playoff teams hosting a returning playoff team are on a 10-4 SU and 9-5 ATS run since 2008.
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ENGLAND (-3.5 vs HOU) 

* Home underdogs in NFL playoff games are currently on a 10-6 SU and 13-3 ATS run since 2016.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (+3.5 vs LAR) 

* BUFFALO is 23-8 SU and 24-7 ATS vs. elite defenses allowing <19 PPG since 2018
Trend Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (+1.5 at DEN) 

* San Francisco is 9-3 SU and 10-2 ATS in the last 12 road rematch games
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (+7 at SEA) 

#1 TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the MAKINEN BETTORS RATINGS: LAR-CHI OVER 48.5 (projections have total at 52.6) 

· The outright winner owns a 39-14-1 ATS (73.6%) mark in the last 54 divisional playoff games. 

· Since 2009, home teams are on a convincing run of 46-18 SU but are just 31-32-1 ATS (49.2%) in the divisional round. They are also just 8-12 ATS in the last five years, de-emphasizing the importance of not only home field advantage, but the extra week of rest and health that comes for teams securing a bye in the Wild Card round. 

· There have only been five road favorites in the last 29 years of the divisional playoffs, and San Francisco was the first to win in that scenario in 2014, beating Carolina 23-10. The other four lost outright and ATS, including Baltimore last season at Buffalo.
Trend Match (FADE): LA RAMS (-3.5 at CHI) 

· Point spreads have proven to be a strong giveaway as to which team should win in divisional playoff games, as home favorites of 5.5-points or less (or underdog) are just 17-15 SU and 13-19 ATS (40.6%) since 2006, while those laying 6 points or more are 34-13 SU and 21-25-1 ATS (45.7%) in that same span.
Trend Matches (FADE ALL): DENVER (-1.5 vs BUF), NEW ENGLAND (-3.5 vs HOU), LAR-CHI (o/u at 48.5) 

· Road teams have proven to be worthy bets in the divisional round when underdogs in the +3.5 to +9.5 range, going 29-17-1 ATS (63%) in the last 47 tries (15-32 SU).
Trend Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (+7 at SEA), HOUSTON (+3.5 at NE) 

· In intra-divisional games of this playoff round, the road teams are on a 4-2 SU and ATS surge.
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (+7 at SEA) 

· Here are the divisional round records since ’02 for the teams playing this weekend. Note that only three of them, the Bills, Texans, and Rams reached this level last season: 

Buffalo: 2-3 SU and ATS
Denver: 3-3 SU and 1-4-1 ATS
San Francisco: 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS
Seattle: 3-7 SU and 4-6 ATS but 3-0 SU at home
Houston: 0-6 SU and 2-4 ATS
New England: 13-2 SU and 9-5-1 ATS incl. 12-1 SU at home
LA Rams: 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS
Chicago: 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS 

· There has been a significant performance difference in home/road dichotomy based on the day of the weekend the Divisional Playoff game has been played on. On Saturdays, home teams have gone 26-6 SU and 20-12 ATS (62.5%) over the last 16 seasons. However, they were 0-2 ATS in ’25. On Sundays, road teams have performed much better, going 18-22 SU and 26-13-1 ATS (66.7%) since 2006!
Trend Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): DENVER (-1.5 vs BUF), SEATTLE (-7 vs SF)
Trend Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON (+3.5 at NE), LA RAMS (-3.5 at CHI) 

· In terms of AFC/NFC breakdown, AFC home teams are 23-10 SU and 16-16-1 ATS (50%) in the last 33, while NFC hosts are 28-12 SU and 18-22 ATS (45%) since 2006 in this playoff round. 

· In terms of Wild Card teams’ potential success in the divisional round, note that 19 of the last 27 WC teams to cover the spread in divisional games played well defensively in the prior game, allowing 20 points or less. This doesn’t count games where these teams played one another. For this weekend, only San Francisco applies, since Houston and New England will be matched up. 

· Of the last 37 teams that pulled off road wins in the Wild Card round to advance to this weekend, 22 of them have covered the point spread (61.1% with one push), and 13 have won a second straight road game outright.
Trend Matches (PLAY ALL): BUFFALO (+1.5 at DEN), SAN FRANCISCO (+7 at SEA), HOUSTON (+3.5 at NE), LA RAMS (-3.5 at CHI)

Divisional Trends by New/Returning Playoff Team

· When both teams in a divisional round playoff matchup were not in the playoffs the prior season, as was the case most recently in the Houston-Baltimore and Tampa Bay-Detroit matchups of 2024, home teams are 6-1 SU and 4-3 ATS since 2005, having gone Over the total 5-1-1 as well.
Trend Match (SLIGHT PLAY): SEATTLE (-7 vs SF)
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SF-SEA (o/u at 45.5) 

· In 2024, Detroit last played as a non-returning playoff team hosting a returning playoff team in the divisional round. Those teams are now on a 10-4 SU and 9-5 ATS run since 2008.
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ENGLAND (-3.5 vs HOU)

Divisional Trends by Seed Number

· Teams fight all season long to have home-field advantage throughout their conference playoffs. However, that advantage has not lasted long as #1 seeds are 30-14 SU but just 15-28-1 ATS (34.9%) dating back to 2004.
Trend Matches (FADE ALL): DENVER (-1.5 vs BUF), SEATTLE (-7 vs SF)

· Making matters worse for the #1 seeds is their record versus #6’s (or worse), as in that matchup the home teams are just 13-8 SU and 6-14-1 ATS (30%) since 2006.
Trend Matches (FADE ALL): DENVER (-1.5 vs BUF), SEATTLE (-7 vs SF) 

· #1 seeds playing as small home favorites of 7-points or less are on an ugly 4-12-1 ATS (25%) slide in the divisional round.
Trend Matches (FADE ALL): DENVER (-1.5 vs BUF), SEATTLE (-7 vs SF) 

· #2 seeds have been arguably more effective than #1’s when it comes to protecting home field advantage in the divisional round, going 29-12 SU and 22-19 ATS (53.8%) over the last 21 playoff seasons.
Trend Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): NEW ENGLAND (-3.5 vs HOU), CHICAGO (+3.5 vs LAR)

Divisional Trends Regarding Totals

· In the last 28 matchups between a #1 seed and a Wild Card team, or a road winner from the prior weekend, Under the total is 21-9-1 (70%).
Trend Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): BUF-DEN (o/u at 45.5), SEA-SF (o/u at 45.5) 

· #2 seeds are a high scoring surge at 19-10 Over (65.5%) in the last 15 years.
Trend Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): HOU-NE (o/u at 40.5), LAR-CHI (o/u at 48.5) 

· Home teams that have covered the point spread in divisional round games are also on a 21-6-1 Over (77.8%) the total surge. Hosts averaged 33.3 PPG in those contests. Alternatively, road team covers have seen 17 Unders, 8 Overs (72.7%) since 2014. The hosts scored 10.4 PPG fewer in those road covers. In essence, home teams cover with offense, road teams cover with defense.

Line range/matchup betting systems

– Home underdogs in NFL playoff games are currently on a 10-6 SU and 13-3 ATS run since 2016.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (+3.5 vs LAR) 

– The most vulnerable home teams in recent NFL playoffs in terms of covering lines have been those priced in the -7 to -9.5 line range, as they are 32-11 SU but just 14-28-1 ATS (33.3%) since 2011.
System Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-7 vs SF) 

– In the last 29 NFL playoff games matching divisional opponents, home teams have gone 17-12 SU but just 12-17 ATS (39.3%). This trend dates back to 2003.
System Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-7 vs SF) 

– There have been 37 NFL playoff games since 2003 in which the road team won more games in the regular season. These visitors are just 17-20 SU and 13-23-1 ATS (36.1%).
System Match (FADE): LA RAMS (-3.5 at CHI) 

– Home teams that won 1 or 2 games more in the regular season than their visiting opponent but are favored by 3-points or fewer (or are underdogs) have been very vulnerable, going 14-21 SU and 13-22 ATS (37.1%) in their last 35 playoff tries.
System Match (FADE): DENVER (-1.5 vs BUF)

Team Statistical Betting Systems

– Home teams gaining less than 6.5 yards per pass attempt have found the playoffs tough, as they are just 21-27 SU and 16-30-2 ATS (34.8%) since 2002.
System Match (FADE): DENVER (-1.5 vs BUF) 

– Road teams averaging 7.5 or more yards per pass attempt have been dangerous in playoffs, going 33-37 SU but 43-25-2 ATS (63.2%) since 2004.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BUFFALO (+1.5 at DEN), SAN FRANCISCO (+7 at SEA), LA RAMS (-3.5 at CHI) 

– Home teams allowing more than 7.0 yards per pass attempt have been quite unreliable for bettors in the postseason, going 13-11 SU but 8-15-1 ATS (34.8%) since 2012.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+3.5 vs LAR) 

– Home teams allowing 5.5 or fewer yards per pass attempt have been solid bets in the playoffs, going 22-7 SU and 18-11 ATS (62.1%) since 2002.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DENVER (-1.5 vs BUF), SEATTLE (-7 vs SF) 

– Road teams allowing 5.9 or fewer yards per pass attempt have also been solid bets in the playoffs, going 27-26 SU but 34-18-1 ATS (65.4%) since 2002.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BUFFALO (+1.5 at DEN), HOUSTON (+3.5 at NE) 

– Road teams that avoid turnovers (<=1.0 giveaways per game) have surprisingly not fared well in the playoffs of late, going 6-24 SU and 10-20 ATS (33.3%) since 2004.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON (+3.5 at NE), LA RAMS (-3.5 at CHI)

First-Time Head Coaches

– Regarding coaches, first-time playoff coaches have been wildly more successful in recent years than quarterbacks, and are currently on an 11-8 SU and 12-7 ATS (63.2%) run over the last seven seasons when not matched up against another rookie head coach.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SEATTLE (-7 vs SF), CHICAGO (+3.5 vs LAR) 

These are some of the top situational NFL betting trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action:

(389) SAN FRANCISCO (13-5) at (390) SEATTLE (14-3)
* SAN FRANCISCO’s Kyle Shanahan is 29-17 Under the total as a single-digit underdog since 2017
* SAN FRANCISCO’s Brock Purdy is on 9-6 Over the total surge vs. divisional opponents
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in SF-SEA (o/u at 45.5) 

(391) BUFFALO (13-5) at (392) DENVER (14-3)
* BUFFALO is 23-8 SU and 24-7 ATS vs. elite defenses allowing <19 PPG since 2018
* BUFFALO is 44-32 ATS (57.9%) in non-divisional conference games since 2017
* BUFFALO is 35-28 ATS (55.6%) in road/neutral games since 2019
* DENVER is 27-42 ATS (39.1%) as a favorite since 2017
Trends Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (+1.5 at DEN)

* BUFFALO’s Josh Allen is 40-24 Under the total on the road since 2018
* DENVER is 20-6 Under the total when coming off a double-digit victory since 2017
* DENVER is 108-74 Under the total (59.3%) since 2015
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): BUF-DEN (o/u at 45.5)

(387) HOUSTON (13-5) at (388) NEW ENGLAND (15-3)
* HOUSTON is on a 20-58 SU and 29-48 ATS slide vs. elite teams with point differential of >=+4.5 PPG since 2010
* NEW ENGLAND is 36-7 SU and 32-11 ATS when riding a three-game or more outright winning streak since 2016
Trends Match (PLAY): NEW ENGLAND (-3.5 vs HOU)

* HOUSTON’s DeMeco Ryans is on 21-6 Under the total surge vs. teams with a winning record
* HOUSTON’s CJ Stroud is 19-12 Under the total in the last 31 games with his team coming off a win
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-NE (o/u at 40.5) 

(393) LA RAMS (13-5) at (394) CHICAGO (12-6)
* LA RAMS’ Sean McVay is 10-7 SU but 6-10 ATS when his team plays with extra rest since 2022
* LA RAMS’ Matthew Stafford is 39-66 SU and 40-63 ATS vs. teams with winning records since 2011
Trends Match (FADE): LA RAMS (-3.5 at CHI)

* CHICAGO is 36-44 ATS (45%) in non-divisional conference games since 2015
* CHICAGO is 35-46-1 ATS (43.2%) as an underdog since 2019
Trends Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+3.5 vs LAR)

* CHICAGO is 17-7 Under the total when coming off an upset win since 2017
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LAR-CHI (o/u at 48.5) 

NFL Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NFL games and detail the results of the follow-up game for these teams.

NO QUALIFYING EXTREME STATS SYSTEMS THIS WEEK

Handicapping NFL Rematch Games

The following trends and betting systems come from same season rematch data over the last 14 seasons 

Best NFL rematch teams lately
San Francisco: 15-10 SU and ATS in the last 25
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (+7 at SEA) 

Best NFL road rematch teams lately
San Francisco: 9-3 SU and 10-2 ATS road in the last 12
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (+7 at SEA) 

NFL Rookie/Retread Coaching Systems

This material is from the VSiN piece entitled Analyzing the New NFL Head Coaches for 2025 detailing systems that apply to rookie coach Ben Johnson (Chicago) as well as re-tread coach Mike Vrabel (New England).

Rookie Coach Systems

– Rookie head coaches have been far more proficient at covering point spreads on the road over the last decade. Here is the breakdown: Home games – 168-191-11 ATS (46.8%).
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+3.5 vs LAR) 

– After wins, they’ve done measurably worse since December 2020, just 66-82-7 ATS (44.6%).
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+3.5 vs LAR)

Retread Coach Systems

– Retread head coaches have been brutal bets as favorites since 2015, going 102-69 SU but just 68-93-11 ATS, for 42.2%!
System Match (FADE): NEW ENGLAND (-3.5 vs HOU) 

– Since 2015, when coming off a win or tie, these coaches have posted a modest 89-81 ATS (52.4%) record in their first seasons, including 39-28 ATS (58.2%) since mid-2022.
System Match (PLAY): NEW ENGLAND (-3.5 vs HOU) 

Strategies Using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published in the 2025 NFL Betting Guide, Steve Makinen outlined 12 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of Thursday at 1:45 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage.

Here is a quick tabulation on how DK bettors performed in the 2024 season: 

–  Majority handle on point spreads: 141-131 ATS (51.8%)
–  Majority number of bets on point spreads: 140-130 ATS (51.9%)
–  Majority handle on totals: 143-133 (51.8%)
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 147-131 (52.9%) 

These are very good wrap-up numbers by the standards that have been established in most of the similar reports I have done for other sports. Considering NFL betting is king, it’s nice to see recreational bettors like those at DraftKings holding their own. With that in mind, here are the systems with updated language and records heading into the 2025 season. 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #1: Over the past two seasons, when more than 68% of the handle has been on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group is just 71-81 ATS (46.7%). The number for this “super-majority” in college football was closer to 75%. In other words, if you see over 2/3 of the handle backing one side in an NFL game this season, it’s consistently profitable to fade it.
System Match (FADE): NEW ENGLAND 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #2: In NFL divisional games of 2022-24, DK majority handle bettors have been awful, as this majority group is just 117-148 ATS (44.2%). With the obvious generality that public bettors love favorites, it’s clear that they don’t value the stakes of these rivalry games and what they mean for the competitors.
System Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2 above, in that same time span, when the majority number of bets staked its side in an NFL divisional game, this majority group is just 118-150 ATS (44%).
System Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority handle was on road underdogs for an ATS wager over the last two years, these majority groups have surprisingly struggled, 27-36 ATS (42.9%). This goes against the logic I have discovered in other sports, which says that when the public goes “against the grain,” they can do well. Quite the opposite here. As you can see, it is rare, just 63 games in two full seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BUFFALO, SAN FRANCISCO 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #8: In another rare winning record, when the majority number of bets has backed the team with fewer season wins in a 2023 or 2024 NFL game for an ATS wager, this majority group was 46-38 ATS (54.8%). This has proven to be a situation in which going against the grain pays off.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): BUFFALO, SAN FRANCISCO, CHICAGO 

DK Betting Splits system #9: The average NFL total in 2023 was 43.0. Last year, it ballooned back up to 44.6. In games where the totals reached 46.5 or higher and oddsmakers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, majority number of bettors have gauged these games incredibly well the last two years, going 96-72 ATS (60.8%)!
System Match (PLAY): OVER – LAR-CHI 

DK Betting Splits system #10: When 56% or more of the number of bets have been on the Under in an NFL game total over the last 2-1/2 seasons, this majority group has been quite sharp, 56-45 ATS (55.4%). This number for a “super-majority” in the NFL is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total. Incidentally, the same majority figure for handle has also produced a 74-62 (54.4%) record.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY UNDER ALL): SF-SEA, HOU-NE

This Week’s NFL Strength Ratings

The following NFL betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

This week’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BUFFALO +1.5 (+1.4)
2. SAN FRANCISCO +7 (+1.0)
3. HOUSTON +3.5 (+0.8)
4. CHICAGO +3.5 (+0.2) 

This week’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOUSTON +3.5 (+2.9)
2. CHICAGO +3.5 (+0.5)
3. BUFFALO +1.5 (+0.3) 

This week’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: SEATTLE -7 (+0.4) 

This week’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAR-CHI OVER 48.5 (+2.3)
2. BUF-DEN OVER 45.5 (+1.6)
3. SF-SEA OVER 45.5 (+1.0)
4. HOU-NE OVER 40.5 (+0.7) 

This week’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAN FRANCISCO +7 (+2.3)
2. HOUSTON +3.5 (+1.6)
3. BUFFALO +1.5 (+1.1)
4. CHICAGO +3.5 (+0.5) 

This week’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAR-CHI OVER 48.5 (+4.1)
2. HOU-NE OVER 40.5 (+3.3)
3. BUF-DEN OVER 45.5 (+2.3)
4. SF-SEA OVER 45.5 (+0.3) 

These are the top head-to-head series NFL betting trends between teams from recent years’ action:

(389) SAN FRANCISCO at (390) SEATTLE
* Road teams are 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in all six meetings between divisional foes SF and SEA in the last three seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (+7 at SEA) 

(391) BUFFALO at (392) DENVER
* BUFFALO is on a 6-3 SU and 8-1 ATS run versus Denver since 2007
Trend Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (+1.5 at DEN) 

(387) HOUSTON at (388) NEW ENGLAND
* HOUSTON is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in matchups with New England since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (+3.5 at NE) 

(393) LA RAMS at (394) CHICAGO
* Home teams are 7-1 SU and ATS in the last eight of the Rams-Bears series
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (+3.5 vs LAR)

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