Preseason Week 1 NFL Betting Trends:
The following NFL betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NFL preseason games of Week 1. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFLPS board.
Strategies Using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits Data
The following NFL betting systems are from the article NFL Preseason Betting Splits Systems for 2025 posted on Wednesday, August 6, 2025. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of 2:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage.
NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #1: Looking back at the 2023-24 NFL preseasons, majority handle bettors on sides have gone just 37-55 ATS (40.2%). Until proven otherwise, any August majority handle in the NFL should be faded.
NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #2: For the 2023-24 NFL preseasons, majority bets groups on sides were just 41-56 ATS (42.3%). This is another majority group that should be faded until further notice.
Systems Match: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLES AND BETS
NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #3: Looking back at the 2023-24 NFL preseasons majority handle bettors on totals were just 43-51 ATS (45.7%). While not as bad as the side percentages, still a continued fade opportunity in ’25.
System Matches (FADE ALL): OVER: IND-BAL, CIN-PHI, LVR-SEA, WAS-NE, HOU-MIN, NYJ-GB, DEN-SF, NO-LAC
UNDER: CLE-CAR, DET-ATL, NYG-BUF, PIT-JAX, DAL-LAR, TEN-TB, KC-ARI, MIA-CHI
NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #4: When the majority handle backed either team in a 2023-24 preseason game that had a point spread with one team favored by 3 points or higher, that majority group went just 23-40 ATS (36.5%). This is a noticeable drop off from the 40.2% overall win rate in system #1, so it is worth further consideration.
System Matches (FADE ALL): INDIANAPOLIS, CINCINNATI, LAS VEGAS, CAROLINA, DETROIT, NEW ENGLAND, PITTSBURGH, TENNESSEE, DENVER, CHICAGO
NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #5: When the majority of number of bets backed a 2023-24 NFL preseason team in a game with a point spread of 2.5 points or lower, that group was just 10-21 ATS (32%). This is over 10% worse than the overall bets majority win rate. Look to fade the majority number of bettors in expected tight games this month.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BUFFALO, HOUSTON, LA RMAS, KANSAS CITY, GREEN BAY, LA CHARGERS
NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority number of bets was 60% or greater on any team in the 2023-24 NFL preseasons, that group went 22-34 ATS (39.3%). These bigger majorities also lost more than the overall groups.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE, PHILADELPHIA, CLEVELAND, WASHINGTON, BUFFALO, PITTSBURGH, LA RAMS, TAMPA BAY, KANSAS CITY, GREEN BAY, LA CHARGERS
NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #7: Over the last two preseasons, in games between conference opponents, majority handle and number of bets bettors have gone just 9-16 ATS (36%) when backing one of the teams. Most preseason games are of the non-conference variety. This is another opportunity to fade majorities at a higher success rate.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT, PITTSBURGH
Were there any systems in the 2023-24 NFL preseasons in which majorities actually won? YES! Here are those spots:
NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #8: For the 3+ week 2024 NFL preseason majority bets groups on totals were 30-16 ATS (65.2%) when favoring Unders on total. This was actually a massive win for majority groups, and I’m willing to endorse it since it goes so much against the grain.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): PIT-JAX, KC-ARI
NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #9: When the majority of the handle backed either team in a 2024 preseason game that saw a line move of 3 points or more from open to close, that group was 12-6 ATS (66.7%), a very strong return. It’s rare for bettors to trust the oddsmakers, in when they did last year, they won.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANAPOLIS, CINCINNATI, LAS VEGAS, CAROLINA, NEW ENGLAND, NY GIANTS, TENNESSEE, DENVER
NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #10: In the 2023-24 NFL preseasons, majority handle and number of bets bettors at DraftKings were 13-10 (56.5%) on totals in conference games. Not spectacular, but a profitable opportunity.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – IND-BAL
UNDER – PIT-JAX
NFL Preseason Systematic Betting Concepts
The following systems were from the article NFL Preseason Betting Concepts to consider for 2025 posted on Tuesday, August 5th, 2025.
Line ranges have proven very telling
Oddsmakers have essentially led bettors to water in the preseason, although it is easy to see how these prices can seem tricky to bettors. Since 2010, favorites in the “sweet spot” range of -3.5 to -7 have been quite reliable, going 151-126-4 ATS for 54.5%. Most games, however, tend to land in the -1 to -3 range, and those contests are where the underdogs thrive. Since 2015, underdogs in the +1 to +3 range own a highly profitable record of 178-116 ATS, good for 60.5%! On that last angle, underdogs in 2024 went 16-8 ATS.
System Matches:
Favorites -3.5 to -7 (PLAY ALL): INDIANAPOLIS, CINCINNATI, LAS VEGAS, CAROLINA, DETROIT, NEW ENGLAND, TENNESSEE, DENVER
Underdogs +1 to +3 (PLAY ALL): BUFFALO, HOUSTON, PITTSBURGH, LA RAMS, KANSAS CITY, NY JETS, MIAMI, LA CHARGERS
Home-field advantage usually means very little in tight-lined games
Since 2011, preseason road teams own a 393-353 ATS edge, good for 52.7%, and essentially enough to make a profit without any other handicapping considered. However, the absolute best time to back road teams is in spots where they are underdogs of 2.5 points or less, as they have gone 79-41 ATS as such since 2015, good for 65.8%! These road underdogs had one of their lesser seasons in 2024, but still produced a 4-3 ATS record.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON (+1.5 at MIN), PITTSBURGH (+2.5 at JAX), KANSAS CITY (+1.5 at AZ), NY JETS (+2.5 at GB)
“37” is a magic number for totals
Since 2010 in the NFL preseason, the number 37 has proven to be quite the benchmark in terms of totals. Totals less than 37 have gone Over at a rate of 56.9% (303-229), but were 34-24 Under in a very low-scoring 2024 preseason. Those closing totals of 37 or higher have gone Under at a 57% clip (555-419), including 28-12 last year!
System Matches (PLAY ALL):
Totals < 37 (PLAY OVER): IND-BAL, CLE-CAR, DET-ATL, WAS-NE, PIT-JAX, DAL-LAR, TEN-TB, NYJ-GB, DEN-SF, MIA-CHI, NO-LAC
Totals >=37 (PLAY UNDER): CIN-PHI, LVR-SEA, NYG-BUF, HOU-MIN, KC-ARI
Big wins have a carryover effect
NFL teams coming off preseason wins of 20+ points and favored are on a 26-7 SU and 20-10-2 ATS (66.7%) surge since 2013. Most bettors tend to favor a yin-yang strategy in the preseason, assuming that the scales balance out, but in truth, big wins have provided big momentum for the next game as well.
System Match (PLAY): LA CHARGERS (*if they become favored vs New Orleans, +0.5 currently)
Teams off double-digit losses are bad bets at home, good on the road
Double-digit games are noteworthy as indicators of the potential performance of the losing team in the follow-up game. When these teams have played at home the following week, they have gone just 37-53 ATS (41.1%) since 2013. When they faced their next contest on the road, they performed well, 56-42 ATS (57.1%) in that same time span, including 3-1 ATS last year.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-3.5 at ATL)
Teams that scored very well last game tend to come back down to earth
Offensive outbursts one week don’t tend to carry over to the next game in the preseason, as teams that scored 34 points or more in their previous exhibition game have gone just 13-17 SU and 12-17-1 ATS (41.4%) since 2015. Only two of these 30 teams reached 30 again as well.
System Match (FADE): LA CHARGERS (+0.5 vs NO)
Teams that didn’t score well at all are good Over bets in the next game
Struggling offenses tend to bounce back well in the next outing of the preseason, as teams that were held to fewer than 10 points in their previous preseason contest have gone 87-62-1 Over the total (58.4%) in the next game since 2010. These teams average 20.2 PPG in the next contest, while giving up 20.6. If you’re looking for a short-term ATS edge on these teams, they are also on a current 21-8 ATS (72.4%) surge heading into 2025.
System Match (PLAY OVER): DET-ATL (o/u at 32.5)
Fade home teams that had huge defensive efforts last time out
Teams playing at home after allowing 7 points or fewer in their previous preseason game are just 22-30-1 SU and 20-31-2 ATS (39.2%) since 2010. Their average points allowed in the follow-up contest balloons to 19.7 PPG, a total that exceeds usual preseason standards by about 0.5 PPG.
System Match (FADE): LA CHARGERS (+0.5 vs NO)
Preseason games between conference opponents lean heavily Under
Interestingly, dating back to September 2015, preseason games between opponents from the same conference have trended heavily Under the total, going 64-39 Under (62.1%).
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): IND-BAL, DET-ATL, PIT-JAX, DAL-LAR
This Week’s NFLPS Strength Ratings
The following NFL betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHILADELPHIA +6 (+5.1)
2. CLEVELAND +6 (+3.5)
3(tie). BALTIMORE +6 (+3.1)
ATLANTA +3.5 (+3.1)
5. SEATTLE +4.5 (+3.0)
This week’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. JACKSONVILLE -2.5 (+1.3)
2. NEW ORLEANS -0.5 (+0.9)
3. MINNESOTA -1.5 (+0.3)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHILADELPHIA +6 (+5.1)
2. CLEVELAND +6 (+3.4)
3(tie). BALTIMORE +6 (+3.2)
WASHINGTON +6.5 (+3.2)
5. ATLANTA +3.5 (+3.1)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. JACKSONVILLE -2.5 (+1.1)
2. NEW ORLEANS -0.5 (+1.0)
3. ARIZONA -1.5 (+0.6)
4(tie). MINNESOTA -1.5 (+0.3)
GREEN BAY -2.5 (+0.3)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIA-CHI OVER 32.5 (+3.0)
2. HOU-MIN OVER 37.5 (+2.5)
3. DET-ATL OVER 32.5 (+1.5)
4. DEN-SF OVER 34.5 (+0.7)
5. CLE-CAR OVER 32.5 (+0.6)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NYG-BUF UNDER 37.5 (-2.7)
2. LVR-SEA UNDER 37.5 (-2.1)
3. NYJ-GB UNDER 36.5 (-1.3)
4. NO-LAC UNDER 36.5 (-0.9)
5. IND-BAL UNDER 36.5 (-0.8)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CLEVELAND +6 (+9.2)
2. SEATTLE +4.5 (+5.8)
3. PHILADELPHIA +6 (+4.4)
4. SAN FRANCISCO +6 (+3.6)
5. BALTIMORE +6 (+3.3)
This week’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW ORLEANS -0.5 (+0.5)
2. CHICAGO -3 (+0.4)
This week’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIA-CHI OVE 32.5 (+1.5)
2. DAL-LAR OVER 33.5 (+0.2)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NYJ-GB UNDER 36.5 (-4.4)
2. NYG-BUF UNDER 37.5 (-3.4)
3. KC-ARI UNDER 38.5 (-3.3)
4. IND-BAL UNDER 36.5 (-2.8)
5. NO-LAC UNDER 36.5 (-2.6)
Top NFLPS Team Situational NFL Betting Trends
These are some of the top situational NFL betting trends that have developed with teams in recent years of preseason action:
CINCINNATI (0-0) at PHILADELPHIA (0-0)
-CINCINNATI has struggled to a 3-13-1 SU and 7-10 ATS record in its last 17 preseason contests.
-CINCINNATI has gone 9-2 ATS in its last 11 road preseason tilts
-CINCINNATI is 2-7 ATS in the last nine as a preseason favorite
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 2 FADES of CINCINNATI (-6 at PHI)
-PHILADELPHIA has gone 5-14-2 SU and 6-14-1 ATS in the last 21 preseason games but did turn it around last year with a 2-1 SU and ATS mark
-PHILADELPHIA is on a 0-7-1 SU and 0-8 ATS skid at home in the preseason
Trends Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (+6 vs CIN)
INDIANAPOLIS (0-0) at BALTIMORE (0-0)
-INDIANAPOLIS is on a 12-5 Over the total run in preseason action, total point production of 41.3 PPG
-INDIANAPOLIS is 9-1 Over the total in the last 10 as a preseason favorite
Trends Match (PLAY OVER): IND-BAL (o/u at 36.5)
-BALTIMORE has lost its last seven preseason games ATS after an incredible 21-1-1 ATS stretch
-BALTIMORE is 22-4 SU in its last 26 home preseason games but has lost its last 4 ATS
Trends Match (SLIGHT FADE): BALTIMORE (+6 vs IND)
LAS VEGAS (0-0) at SEATTLE (0-0)
-SEATTLE has gone Under the total in 11 of its last 14 preseason contests
-SEATTLE is on a 10-2 Under the total run in home preseason games
-SEATTLE has dropped five in a row SU and ATS as a preseason dog
Trends Match: FADE SEATTLE (+4.5 vs LVR), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 37.5)
CLEVELAND (0-0) at CAROLINA (0-0)
-CLEVELAND boasts a 9-3-1 SU and 11-2 ATS mark in its last 13 preseason contests on the road
-CLEVELAND is 9-0-1 ATS since 2017, as well as 14-3-1 ATS in its last 18 as a preseason underdog
Trends Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+6 at CAR)
DETROIT (0-1) at ATLANTA (0-0)
-DETROIT is on a 17-6 Over the total surge in preseason games, allowing 24.3 PPG.
-DETROIT has gone 11-0 Over the total in the last 11 games following a preseason loss
-DETROIT is on a 1-6 SU and 0-6-1 ATS slide as preseason chalk
Trends Match: FADE DETROIT (-3.5 at ATL), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 32.5)
-ATLANTA is on a 5-21-1 SU and 5-22 ATS skid in the preseason
-ATLANTA is just 2-10-1 SU and 1-12 ATS in its last 13 home preseason games, as well as 11-2 Under the total, scoring just 10 PPG
Trends Match: FADE ATLANTA (+3.5 vs DET), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 32.5)
WASHINGTON (0-0) at NEW ENGLAND (0-0)
-NEW ENGLAND is on a current 14-4 Under the total surge in the preseason
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): WAS-NE (o/u at 34.5)
DALLAS (0-0) at LA RAMS (0-0)
-DALLAS is 2-17 SU and 4-15 ATS on the preseason road since 2012
-DALLAS is on a 4-13-3 ATS skid as a preseason favorite
Trends Match (FADE): DALLAS (-2.5 at LAR)
DENVER (0-0) at SAN FRANCISCO (0-0)
-Outright winners are on an incredible 36-1-1 ATS run in DENVER preseason games
-DENVER is 13-4 SU and 11-5-1 ATS in its last 17 as a preseason favorite
Trend Match (PLAY): DENVER (-6 at SF)
-SAN FRANCISCO is on an 8-0-1 ATS streak as a preseason underdog
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (+6 vs DEN)
HOUSTON (0-0) at MINNESOTA (0-0)
-HOUSTON has won its last six true road preseason games SU and ATS, holding opponents to 12.5 PPG
-HOUSTON is on a 12-3 Under the total run in preseason games, total point production 32.9 PPG
Trends Match: PLAY HOUSTON (+1.5 at MIN), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 37.5)
NY GIANTS (0-0) at BUFFALO (0-0)
-The NY GIANTS are 4-5 SU but just 1-8 ATS in three preseasons under head coach Brian Daboll
-NY GIANTS are 2-10 ATS in its last 12 as preseason favorites
Trends Match (FADE): NY GIANTS (-1.5 at BUF)
-BUFFALO is on a 13-4 SU and ATS surge in the preseason
-BUFFALO is on a 7-1 ATS surge in preseason home games
-BUFFALO is on a 10-2 SU and 11-1 ATS surge as a preseason underdog
Trends Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (+1.5 vs NYG)
NY JETS (0-0) at GREEN BAY (0-0)
-NY JETS are on 12-3-1 SU and 12-4 ATS run in the preseason
-NY JETS have won their last seven true road preseason games, both outright and ATS
-NY JETS have converted eight of the last nine ATS as preseason underdogs
Trends Match (PLAY): NY JETS (+2.5 at GB)
-GREEN BAY is on a 14-4 SU and ATS run in preseason games at Lambeau Field
-GREEN BAY is 13-3 SU and ATS as a preseason favorite since 2014
Trends Match (PLAY): GREEN BAY (-2.5 vs NYJ)
PITTSBURGH (0-0) at JACKSONVILLE (0-0)
-PITTSBURGH lost all three preseason games last year SU and ATS after an 18-4 SU and 16-6 ATS run prior to last season
-PITTSBURGH is 9-3 SU and ATS in its last 12 as a preseason underdog
Trends Match (SLIGHT PLAY): PITTSBURGH (+2.5 at JAX)
-JACKSONVILLE has put together back-to-back perfect exhibition seasons, 6-0 SU and ATS, while outscoring opponents 26.8-11.3
Trend Match (PLAY): JACKSONVILLE (-2.5 vs PIT)
TENNESSEE (0-0) at TAMPA BAY (0-0)
-TAMPA BAY has gone Over the total in the last five home preseason contests
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): TEN-TB (o/u at 32.5)
MIAMI (0-0) at CHICAGO (0-0)
-MIAMI has gone 11-6 SU and 12-5 ATS in its last 17 preseason games
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+3 at CHI)
-CHICAGO went 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS in three preseasons under head coach Matt Eberflus, but now turns to newly hired Ben Johnson.
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (-3 vs MIA)
NEW ORLEANS (0-0) at LA CHARGERS (1-0)
-NEW ORLEANS has gone 19-7-1 Under the total in its last 27 preseason tilts
-NEW ORLEANS enters the 2025 exhibition season on a 10-3 Under run on the road
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): NO-LAC (o/u at 36.5)
-LA CHARGERS are looking to end a 1-12 SU and 2-10-1 ATS skid in preseason home games
Trend Match (FADE): LA CHARGERS (+0.5 vs NO)
Top Head-to-Head Series NFL Betting Trends
These are the top head-to-head series NFL betting trends between teams from recent years’ preseason action:
8/8/25 – WASHINGTON at NEW ENGLAND
* HOME TEAMS have covered all four preseason head-to-head meetings since 2014
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ENGLAND (-6.5 vs WAS)
8/9/25 – DALLAS at LA RAMS
* UNDERDOGS are 3-0-1 ATS in preseason head-to-head series since 2016
* UNDER the total is 3-0 in the last three head-to-head preseason meetings, going under the closing total by 12.8 points on average (110.5 listed total, 72 points scored)
Trends Match: PLAY LA RAMS (+2.5 vs DAL), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 33.5)
8/9/25 – DENVER at SAN FRANCISCO
* UNDERDOGS are 3-0 SU and ATS in all three preseason head-to-head meetings in SAN FRANCISCO since 2014
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (+6 vs DEN)
8/9/25 – KANSAS CITY at ARIZONA
* KANSAS CITY has won and covered in all three preseason visits to Arizona since 2015
Trend Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (+1.5 at ARI) 8/10/25 – NEW ORLEANS at LA CHARGERS
* NEW ORLEANS is 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS in preseason head-to-head matchups with LAC since 2017
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (-0.5 at LAC)
