The following NFL betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NFL preseason games of Week 2. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFLPS board.

Strategies Using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits Data

Here are the NFL betting trend systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET on Wednesday. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage.

 

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NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #1: Looking back at the 2023 NFL preseason majority handle bettors on sides were just 14-30 ATS (31.8%). Until proven otherwise, any August majority handle in the NFL should be faded.

NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #2: For the 3+ week 2023 NFL preseason majority bets groups on sides were just 17-32 ATS (34.7%). This is another majority group that should be faded until further notice.

NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #3: Looking back at the 2023 NFL preseason majority handle bettors on totals were just 19-28 ATS (40.4%). While not as bad as the side percentages, still a continued fade opportunity in 2024.

NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #4: For the 3+ week 2023 NFL preseason majority bets groups on totals were just 18-29 ATS (38.3%). A little less success for majority bets than handle on totals.

NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #5: When the majority of the handle backed either team in a 2023 preseason game that saw a line move of 3 points or more from open to close, that group was just 3-13 ATS (18.8%), a percentage low topped only by #9 below.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW ENGLAND, BALTIMORE, CHICAGO, KANSAS CITY, SEATTLE, LAS VEGAS, DENVER, NEW ORLEANS

NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority handle backed either team in a 2023 preseason game that had a point spread of 3 points or higher, that majority group went just 9-21 ATS (30%). This is a slight drop off from the 31.8% overall win rate in system #1, so worth further consideration.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY GIANTS, CHICAGO, KANSAS CITY, MINNESOTA, CAROLINA, PITTSBURGH, INDIANAPOLIS, JACKSONVILLE, LAS VEGAS, NEW ORLEANS, DENVER

NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority number of bets backed a 2023 NFL preseason team in a game with a point spread of 2.5 points or lower, that group was just 4-12 ATS (25%). This is almost 10% worse than the overall bets majority win rate. Look to fade the majority number of bettors in expected tight games this month.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, BALTIMORE, MIAMI, SEATTLE, LA CHARGERS

NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #8: When the majority number of bets was 60% or greater on any team in the 2023 NFL preseason, that group went 9-21 ATS (30%). These bigger majorities lost more than the overall groups.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE, HOUSTON, DETROIT, MIAMI, BUFFALO, DALLAS, SAN FRANCISCO, GREEN BAY

NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #9: In the 2023 NFL preseason, when DraftKings lines moved towards the road teams throughout the week but majority handle bettors stuck with the home teams, that group went just 1-7 ATS (12.5%). This might be the lowest DK splits percentage system I’ve posted for any sport, albeit the sample size is very small.
System Matches: NONE YET THIS WEEK

NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #10: In games between conference opponents, majority handle bettors were just 4-11 ATS (26.7%) when backing one of the teams. Most preseason games are of the non-conference variety, this is another opportunity to fade majorities at a higher success rate.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH, NEW ORLEANS

Were there any systems in the 2023 NFL preseason in which majorities actually won? YES! Here are those two spots:

NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #11: In the 2023 NFL preseason, when DraftKings totals moved 2 points or more on any given game from open to close, majority number of bets groups were 10-7 (58.9%). This is nowhere near as definitive as the negative systems thus far but still a possible spot in which the back the majority.
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in: PHI-NE, NYG-HOU, WAS-MIA, NYJ-CAR, DAL-LVR, NO-SF

NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #12: In the 2023 NFL preseason, majority handle bettors at DraftKings were 8-6 (57.1%) when betting totals in conference games. Again, not spectacular, but a profitable follow chance.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in: NO-SF
PLAY UNDER in: BUF-PIT

NFL Preseason Systematic Betting Concepts

The following NFL betting trend systems were from the article NFL preseason betting concepts for 2023 posted the day prior to the NFL Hall-of-Fame Game

Line ranges have proven very telling
Oddsmakers have essentially led bettors to water in the preseason, although it is easy to see how these prices can seem tricky to bettors. Since 2010, 13 teams have been favored by more than 7 points. Nine of these heavy favorites won their games outright. However, they were 4-9 ATS (30.8%). At the same time, favorites in the “sweet spot” range of -3.5 to -7 have been quite reliable, going 146-116-4 ATS for 55.7%. (In 2024, they are 3-4 ATS.) Most games, however, tend to land in the -1 to -3 range, and those contests are where the underdogs thrive. Since 2015, underdogs in the +1 to +3 range own a highly profitable record of 169-113 ATS, good for 59.9%! On that last angle, underdogs in 2023 went 13-8 ATS. (In 2024, that last angle is 7-3 ATS.)
System Match(es):
Favorites more than -7: NONE
Favorites -3.5 to -7 (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO, KANSAS CITY, CLEVELAND, PITTSBURGH, INDIANAPOLIS, NY JETS, LAS VEGAS, DENVER
Underdogs +1 to +3 (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, ATLANTA, NY GIANTS, TENNESSEE, WASHINGTON, LA RAMS, TAMPA BAY, SAN FRANCISCO

Home-field advantage usually means very little in tight-lined games
In looking at the home/road results of the last 12 NFL preseasons, there have been only two years where home teams finished with a record of better than .500 ATS. Last year, hosts were just 21-27 ATS. (In 2024, they are 8-8 ATS.) If you’re simply guessing on these games or wagering them for fun, side with the road teams, as the points given to hosts by oddsmakers for their “home-field advantage” tend to tip the ATS ledger to the visitors. In fact, since 2011, road teams own a 378-336 ATS edge, good for 52.9%, and essentially enough to make a reasonable profit without any other handicapping considered. However, the absolute best time to back road teams is in spots where they are underdogs of 2.5 points or less, as they have gone 76-39 ATS as such since 2015, good for 66.1%! On cue, these road underdogs in 2023 went 6-3 ATS. (In 2024, these road underdogs are 1-1 ATS.)
System Match(es):
Road Underdog of 2.5 points or less (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, ATLANTA, WASHINGTON, LA RAMS

“37” is a magic number for totals
Since 2010 in the NFL preseason, the number 37 has proven to be quite the benchmark in terms of totals. Totals less than 37 have gone Over at a rate of 58.9% (281-200), including 10-3 last preseason (in 2024 they are 2-5). Those closing totals of 37 or higher have gone Under at a 56.6% clip (534-410). (In 2024, they are 7-3.)
System Match(es):
Totals < 37 (PLAY OVER): PHI-NE, CIN-CHI, MIN-CLE, BUF-PIT, SEA-TEN, NYJ-CAR, LAR-LAC
Totals >=37 (PLAY UNDER): ATL-BAL, NYG-HOU, DET-KC, AZ-IND, WAS-MIA, TB-JAX, DAL-LVR, GB-DEN, NO-SF

Big wins have a carryover effect
NFL teams coming off preseason wins of 20+ points and favored are on a 23-7 SU and 17-10-2 ATS (63%) surge since 2013. Most bettors tend to favor a yin-yang strategy in the preseason, assuming that the scales balance out, but in truth, big wins have provided big momentum for the next game as well.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (-6 vs. CIN)

Teams off double-digit losses are bad bets at home, good on road
Double-digit games are noteworthy as indicators of the potential performance of the losing team in the follow-up game. When these teams played at home the following week, they went down to just 34-48 ATS (41.5%) since 2013. When they faced their next contest on the road, they have performed well, 53-41 ATS (56.4%) in that same time span, including 7-3 ATS last year. This near-15% variance is something you are going to want to give consideration to in the final two weeks of this year’s preseason.
System Match(es):
D-D LOSS TEAMS @ HOME (FADE ALL): CAROLINA (+3.5 vs. NYJ), CLEVELAND (-3.5 vs MIN), KANSAS CITY (-6.5 vs. DET), LA CHARGERS (-1 vs. LAR)
D-D LOSS TEAMS ON ROAD (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (+6.5 at KC), BUFFALO (+4.5 at PIT)

Teams that scored very well last game tend to come back down to earth
Offensive outbursts one week don’t tend to carry over to the next game in the preseason, as teams that scored 34 points or more in their previous exhibition game have gone just 12-17 SU and 11-17-1 ATS (39.3%) since 2015. Only two of these 29 teams reached 30 again as well.
System Match (FADE): DENVER (-7 vs. GB)

Teams that didn’t score well at all are good Over bets the next game
Struggling offenses tend to bounce back well in the next outing of the preseason, as teams that were held to fewer than 10 points in their previous preseason contest have gone 78-57-1 Over the total (57.8%) in the next game since 2010. These teams average 20.4 PPG in the next contest, while giving up 20.8. If you’re looking for a short-term ATS edge on these teams, they are also on a current 13-2 ATS (86.7%) surge heading into 2024.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): DET-KC, NYJ-CAR, BUF-PIT, LAR-LAC

Fade home teams that had huge defensive efforts last time out
Teams playing at home after allowing 7 points or fewer in their previous preseason game are just 20-28-1 SU & 17-30-2 ATS (36.2%) since 2010. Their average points allowed in the follow-up contest balloons to 20.1 PPG, a lofty total by preseason standards.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW ENGLAND (-2.5 vs PHI), CHICAGO (-6 vs CIN)

Preseason games between conference opponents lean heavily Under
Interestingly, dating back to September 2015, preseason games between opponents from the same conference have trended heavily Under the total, going 61-38 Under (61.6%). (In 2024, they are 5-1.) Just over one-third of preseason games fall into this category. Furthermore, if you add the qualifiers from #7 above to that time span, preseason games between conference opponents with totals of 37 or higher have gone Under at a 50-24 rate (67.6%) since September 2015. (In 2024, they are 3-1!)
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): BUF-PIT, NO-SF
*Totals >=37* (PLAY UNDER): NO-SF

This week’s NFLPS Strength Ratings

The following NFL betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GREEN BAY +7 (+2.7), 2. DALLAS +6.5 (+2.3), 3. MINNESOTA +3.5 (+1.5) and CAROLINA +3.5 (+1.5), 5. WASHINGTON +1 (+1.4)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. INDIANAPOLIS -3.5 (+1.1), 2. NEW ENGLAND -2.5 (+0.9), 3. HOUSTON -3 (+0.6) and TENNESSEE -1 (+0.6), 5. LA CHARGERS -1 (+0.5)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CINCINNATI +6 (+5.3), 2. MINNESOTA +3.5 (+3.7), 3. DETROIT +6.5 (+3.6), 4. WASHINGTON +1 (+3.3), 5. BUFFALO +4.5 (+2.4)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA CHARGERS -1 (+5.2), 2. JACKSONVILLE -3 (+4.4), 3. HOUSTON -3 (+1.7), 4. BALTIMORE -1.5 (+1.5), 5. TENNESSEE -1 (+0.2)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CIN-CHI OVER 36.5 (+5.4), 2. TB-JAX OVER 37.5 (+5.3), 3. PHI-NE OVER 36 (+3.2) and DAL-LVR OVER 39.5 (+3.2), 5. NYG-HOU OVER 39.5 (+2.9)

This week’s Top 4 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BUF-PIT UNDER 36 (-2.1), 2. DET-KC UNDER 39 (-0.9), 3. ARI-IND UNDER 37 (-0.6), 4. LAR-LAC UNDER 33.5 (-0.3)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GREEN BAY +7 (+4.5), 2. MINNESOTA +3.5 (+1.9), 3. WASHINGTON +1 (+1.8), 4. DALLAS +6.5 (+1.7), 5. CAROLINA +3.5 (+1.5)

This week’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA CHARGERS -1 (+1.4), 2. INDIANAPOLIS -3.5 (+1.0), 3. JACKSONVILLE -3 (+0.3)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BUF-PIT OVER 36 (+5.0), 2. LAR-LAC OVER 33.5 (+4.8), 3. CIN-CHI OVER 36.5 (+4.5), 4. SEA-TEN OVER 35 (+4.4) and TB-JAX OVER 37.5 (+4.4)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: NONE THIS WEEK

These are some of the top situational NFL betting trends that have developed with teams in recent years of preseason action:

Overall NFL Betting Trends

ATLANTA is on a 5-19-1 SU and 4-21 ATS skid in the preseason
System Match: FADE ATLANTA (+1.5 at BAL)

Baltimore has lost its last five preseason games ATS after an incredible 21-1-1 ATS stretch
System Match: FADE BALTIMORE (-1.5 vs. ATL)

BUFFALO is on a 12-3 SU and 11-4 ATS surge in the preseason but is 1-4 ATS in the last five

CHICAGO is 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS in two preseasons under head coach Matt Eberflus, not including the storm shortened 2024 Hall-of-Fame Game
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO (-6 vs. CIN)

DALLAS is 3-3 SU and ATS in its last six preseason games after going 6-21-3 ATS in its prior 30
System Match: FADE DALLAS (+6.5 at LVR)

DENVER is 11-5 Under the total in its last 16 preseason games
System Match: PLAY UNDER in GB-DEN (o/u at 39)

DETROIT is on a 12-5 Over the total surge in preseason games, allowing 24.3 PPG
System Match: PLAY OVER in DET-KC (o/u at 39)

HOUSTON is on a 10-2 Under the total run in preseason games, total point production 32.1 PPG
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total in NYG-HOU (o/u at 39.5)

LA RAMS are on a 1-5 SU and ATS skid, outscored 26.8-12.3 on average
System Match: FADE LA RAMS (+1 at LAC)

LAS VEGAS is on an impressive 12-5 SU and ATS preseason surge
System Match: PLAY LAS VEGAS (-6.5 vs. DAL)

MINNESOTA is on a 1-11 SU and 3-8 ATS skid
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA (+3.5 at CLE)

NEW ENGLAND is on a current 12-4 Under the total surge in the preseason
System Match: PLAY UNDER in PHI-NE (o/u at 36)

NEW ORLEANS has gone 18-6-1 Under the total in its last 25 preseason tilts
System Match: PLAY UNDER in NO-SF (o/u at 38.5)

NY GIANTS are on unique 11-3 Over the total run, total point production 42.5 PPG
System Match: PLAY OVER in NYG-HOU (o/u at 39.5)

The NY JETS are on 10-3-1 SU and 10-4 ATS run in the preseason
System Match: PLAY NY JETS (-3.5 at CAR)

PHILADELPHIA has gone 4-13-2 SU and 5-13-1 ATS in the last 19 preseason games
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (+2.5 at NE)

PITTSBURGH is 6-1 SU and ATS in the last seven and is 19-4 SU and 17-6 ATS dating back to ‘17
System Match: PLAY PITTSBURGH (-4.5 vs. BUF)

SEATTLE has gone Under the total in 10 of its last 12 preseason contests
System Match: PLAY UNDER in SEA-TEN (o/u at 35)

Home/Road NFL Betting Trends

BALTIMORE is currently on a 12-1 SU streak (10-3 ATS) and is 21-4 SU in its last 25 at home
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (-1.5 vs. ATL)

CINCINNATI has gone 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road preseason tilts but just 3-10 ATS in its last 13 at home
System Match: PLAY CINCINNATI (+6 at CHI)

DALLAS is 1-17 SU and 3-15 ATS on the preseason road since 2012
System Match: FADE DALLAS (+6.5 at LVR)

GREEN BAY broke a seven-game road preseason losing streak in 2023 but is still 2-6-1 ATS in its last nine such contests
System Match: FADE GREEN BAY (+7 at DEN)

JACKSONVILLE home preseason games have been a struggle, 9-14 SU and 7-15-1 ATS in the last 23
System Match: FADE JACKSONVILLE (-3 vs. TB)

LA CHARGERS are looking to end 1-11 SU and 2-9-1 ATS skid in preseason home games
System Match: FADE LA CHARGERS (-1 vs. LAR)

LAS VEGAS has won its last seven preseason home games SU and ATS, holding opponents to 8.4 PPG
System Match: PLAY LAS VEGAS (-6.5 vs. DAL)

NY JETS have won their last six true road preseason games, both outright and ATS
System Match: PLAY NY JETS (-3.5 at CAR)

Off SU Win/Loss NFL Betting Trends

CAROLINA is on an 11-4 SU and 11-3-1 ATS run in its last 15 preseason games following a loss the week prior, but 2-9 ATS in the last 11 following a win
System Match: PLAY CAROLINA (+3.5 vs. NYJ)

DALLAS is 5-15-2 ATS in the last 22 preseason games following a loss
System Match: FADE DALLAS (+6.5 at LVR)

DETROIT has gone 10-0 OVER the total in the last 10 games following a preseason loss
System Match: PLAY OVER the total in DET-KC (o/u at 39)

The last six NY GIANTS preseason games following up an outright win have gone Over the total, producing 52.3 PPG
System Match: PLAY OVER in NYG-HOU (o/u at 39.5)

NEW ORLEANS has gone Under the total in nine of its last 10 games following up a preseason win
System Match: PLAY UNDER in NO-SF (o/u at 38.5)

WASHINGTON has gone 8-1 Under the total in the last nine games following up a preseason loss
System Match: PLAY UNDER in WAS-MIA (o/u at 37.5)

Favorite/Underdog NFL Betting Trends

ATLANTA is on a 1-9 ATS skid as a preseason favorite
System Match: FADE ATLANTA (*if they become a favorite at BAL, +1.5 currently)

BUFFALO is on a 9-1 SU and ATS surge as a preseason underdog
System Match: PLAY BUFFALO (+4.5 at PIT)

CINCINNATI is on a 9-2 ATS surge as a preseason underdog but is 2-8 ATS as chalk
System Match: PLAY CINCINNATI (+6 at CHI)

CLEVELAND is 8-0-1 ATS since 2017 as a preseason underdog but 1-7 ATS in the last eight as a favorite
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND (-3.5 vs MIN)

GREEN BAY has lost seven of its last eight games SU as preseason dog (1-6-1 ATS)
System Match: FADE GREEN BAY (+6.5 at DEN)

LA RAMS have covered just once in the last 10 preseason games as favorites
System Match: FADE LA RAMS (*if they become a favorite at LAC, +1 currently)

NY GIANTS are 16-6 ATS in the last 22 as preseason underdogs but 2-9 ATS in the last 11 as favorites
System Match: PLAY NY GIANTS (+3 at HOU)

SAN FRANCISCO is on a 7-0-1 ATS streak as preseason underdog
System Match: PLAY SAN FRANCISCO (+3 vs NO)

These are the top head-to-head series NFL betting trends between teams from recent years’ preseason action:

8/15/24 – (401) PHILADELPHIA at (402) NEW ENGLAND
* NEW ENGLAND has won the last three ATS in the preseason head-to-head series
System Match: PLAY NEW ENGLAND ATS (-2.5 vs PHI)

8/17/24 – (415) BUFFALO at (416) PITTSBURGH
* HOME TEAMS have covered the last three ATS in preseason head-to-head games
System Match: PLAY PITTSBURGH ATS (-4.5 vs. BUF)

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Steve Makinen
Steve Makinen
As one of the original founders of StatFox, Steve Makinen has been in the business of sports betting and data analysis for almost 25 years now. In his time in the industry, Steve has worked in a variety of capacities on both sides of the betting counter, from his early days of developing the StatFox business, to almost a decade of oddsmaking consulting for one of the world's leading sportsbooks, to his last seven years as Point Spread Weekly and Analytics Director with VSiN. Steve has always believed that number crunching and handicapping through foundational trends and systems is the secret to success and he shares this data with VSiN readers on a daily basis for all of the major sports.

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