The following NFL betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NFL preseason games of Week 2. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFLPS board.

 

Strategies Using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits Data

The following systems are from the article NFL Preseason Betting Splits Systems for 2025 posted on Wednesday, August 6, 2025. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET on Thursday. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage. 

NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #1: Looking back at the 2023-24 NFL preseasons, majority handle bettors on sides have gone just 37-55 ATS (40.2%). Until proven otherwise, any August majority handle in the NFL should be faded.

NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #2: For the 2023-24 NFL preseasons, majority bets groups on sides were just 41-56 ATS (42.3%). This is another majority group that should be faded until further notice.
Systems Match: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLES AND BETS 

NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #3: Looking back at the 2023-24 NFL preseasons majority handle bettors on totals were just 43-51 ATS (45.7%). While not as bad as the side percentages, still a continued fade opportunity in ’25.

System Matches (FADE ALL): OVER – TEN-ATL, KC-SEA, GB-IND, MIA-DET, CAR-HOU, CLE-PHI, NE-MIN, SF-LVR, TB-PIT, NYJ-NYG, LAC-LAR, ARI-DEN, JAX-NO, BUF-CHI, CIN-WAS
UNDER – BAL-DAL 

NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #4: When the majority handle backed either team in a 2023-24 preseason game that had a point spread with one team favored by 3 points or higher, that majority group went just 23-40 ATS (36.5%). This is a noticeable drop off from the 40.2% overall win rate in system #1, so worth further consideration.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA, SEATTLE, GREEN BAY, DETROIT, PHILADELPHIA, SAN FRANCISCO, PITTSBURGH, NY JETS, LA CHARGERS, DENVER, WASHINGTON 

NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #5: When the majority of number of bets backed a 2023-24 NFL preseason team in a game with a point spread of 2.5 points or lower, that group was just 10-21 ATS (32%). This is over 10% worse than the overall bets majority win rate. Look to fade the majority number of bettors in expected tight games this month.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON, NEW ENGLAND, BALTIMORE, JACKSONVILLE, BUFFALO 

NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority number of bets was 60% or greater on any team in the 2023-24 NFL preseasons, that group went 22-34 ATS (39.3%). These bigger majorities also lost more than the overall groups.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA, GREEN BAY, DETROIT, HOUSTON, PHILADELPHIA, SAN FRANCISCO, PITTSBURGH, BALTIMORE, JACKSONVILLE, BUFFALO 

Was there any system in the 2023-24 NFL preseasons in which majorities actually won? YES! Here is a spot:

NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #9: When the majority of the handle backed either team in a 2024 preseason game that saw a line move of 3 points or more from open to close, that group was 12-6 ATS (66.7%), a very strong return. It’s rare for bettors to trust the oddsmakers, in when they did last year, they won.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SEATTLE, PHILADELPHIA, NEW ENGLAND, NY JETS, PITTSBURGH 

NFL Preseason Systematic Betting Concepts

The following systems were from the article NFL Preseason Betting Concepts to consider for 2025 posted on Tuesday, August 5th, 2025

1. Line ranges have proven very telling
Oddsmakers have essentially led bettors to water in the preseason, although it is easy to see how these prices can seem tricky to bettors. Since 2010, there have been 16 teams that have been favored by more than 7 points. Ten of these heavy favorites won their games outright; however, they were 5-11 ATS (31.3%). At the same time, favorites in the “sweet spot” range of -3.5 to -7 have been quite reliable, going 155-133-4 ATS for 53.8% (in ’25, this angle is 4-7 ATS). Most games, however, tend to land in the -1 to -3 range, and those contests are where the underdogs thrive. Since 2015, underdogs in the +1 to +3 range own a highly profitable record of 183-117 ATS, good for 61%! On that last angle, underdogs have gone 21-9 ATS since 2024, and obviously, readers of this article and our weekly analytics reports benefited greatly recently.

System Matches:
Favorites -3.5 to -7 (PLAY ALL): TENNESSEE, INDIANAPOLIS, PHILADELPHIA, LAS VEGAS, TAMPA BAY, NY GIANTS, LA CHARGERS, JACKSONVILLE, CINCINNATI
Underdogs +1 to +3 (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY, DETROIT, CAROLINA, MINNESOTA, DALLAS, ARIZONA, BUFFALO 

2. Home-field advantage usually means very little in tight-lined games
Since 2011, preseason road teams own a 399-363 ATS edge, good for 52.4%, and essentially enough to make a profit without any other handicapping considered. However, the absolute best time to back road teams is in spots where they are underdogs of 2.5 points or less, as they have gone 80-42 ATS as such since 2015, good for 65.6%!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CAROLINA (+2.5 at HOU), BUFFALO (+2.5 at CHI)

3. “37” is a magic number for totals
Since 2010 in the NFL preseason, the number 37 has proven to be quite the benchmark in terms of totals. Totals less than 37 have gone Over at a rate of 57.3% (309-230), including 6-1 to the Over so far in 2025. Those closing totals of 37 or higher have gone UNDER at a 56.6% clip (557-427), including 30-20 since the start of last year!
System Matches:
Totals < 37 (PLAY OVER): BAL-DAL
Totals >=37 (PLAY UNDER): TEN-ATL, KC-SEA, GB-IND, MIA-DET, CAR-HOU, CLE-PHI, NE-MIN, SF-LVR, TB-PIT, NYJ-NYG, LAC-LAR, BAL-DAL, ARI-DEN, JAX-NO, BUF-CHI, CIN-WAS 

4. Big wins have a carryover effect
NFL teams coming off preseason wins of 20+ points and favored are on a 27-7 SU and 21-10-2 ATS (67.7%) surge since 2013. Most bettors tend to favor a yin-yang strategy in the preseason, assuming that the scales balance out, but in truth, big wins have provided big momentum for the next game as well.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW ENGLAND (-1.5 at MIN), TAMPA BAY (-3.5 at PIT), DENVER (-3 vs ARI)

5. Teams off double-digit losses are bad bets at home, good on the road
Double-digit games are noteworthy as indicators of the potential performance of the losing team in the follow-up game. When these teams have played at home the following week, they have gone just 37-53 ATS (41.1%) since 2013. When they faced their next contest on the road, they performed well, 57-42 ATS (57.6%) in that same time span, including 4-1 ATS since the start of last year.
System Matches:
AT HOME (FADE): HOUSTON (-2.5 vs CAR), DALLAS (+1.5 vs BAL), NEW ORLEANS (+3.5 vs JAX), WASHINGTON (+4.5 vs CIN)
ON THE ROAD (PLAY): TENNESSEE (-4.5 at ATL), GREEN BAY (+6 at IND), CAROLINA (+2.5 at HOU), SAN FRANCISCO (+4.5 at LVR)

6. Teams that scored very well last game tend to come back down to earth
Offensive outbursts one week don’t tend to carry over to the next game in the preseason, as teams that scored 34 points or more in their previous exhibition game have gone just 14-17 SU and 13-17-1 ATS (43.3%) since 2015. Only two of these 31 teams reached 30 again as well.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-4.5 vs CLE), NEW ENGLAND (-1.5 at MIN), NY GIANTS (-3.5 vs NYJ)

7. Teams that didn’t score well at all are good Over bets the next game
Struggling offenses tend to bounce back well in the next outing of the preseason, as teams that were held to fewer than 10 points in their previous preseason contest have gone 87-63-1 Over the total (58%) in the next game since 2010. These teams average 20.2 PPG in the next contest, while giving up 20.5. If you’re looking for a short-term ATS edge on these teams, they are also on a current 22-8 ATS (73.3%) surge!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TENNESSEE (-4.5 at ATL), SAN FRANCISCO (+4.5 at LVR)
PLAY OVER the total in: TEN-ATL (o/u at 38.5), SF-LVR (o/u at 40.5)

8. Preseason games involving a winning team as a heavy favorite lean Under
Teams that won their first two preseason games and are playing as a large favorite of -6 or higher have seen their totals go Under at a 11-4 rate (73.3%) since 2010.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): LAC-LAR (o/u at 38.5) 

This week’s NFLPS Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. WASHINGTON +4.5 (+2.7)
2. CLEVELAND +4.5 (+2.5)
3. PITTSBURGH +3.5 (+2.1)
4. NY JETS +3.5 (+1.8)
5. GREEN BAY +6 (+1.4) 

This week’s Top 4 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TENNESSEE -4.5 (+1.1)
2. SEATTLE -3 (+0.8)
3. DENVER -3 (+0.4)
4. CHICAGO -2.5 (+0.3) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. WASHINGTON +4.5 (+2.5)
2. CLEVELAND +4.5 (+2.4)
3. PITTSBURGH +3.5 (+2.1)
4. NY JETS +3.5 (+1.5)
5. NEW ORLEANS +3.5 (+1.4) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TENNESSEE -4.5 (+0.9)
2. SEATTLE -3 (+0.7)
3. DENVER -3 (+0.3)
4. CHICAGO -2.5 (+0.2) 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CLE-PHI OVER 37.5 (+4.8)
2. NYJ-NYG OVER 39.5 (+2.8)
3. ARI-DEN OVER 38.5 (+2.7)
4. KC-SEA OVER 39.5 (+2.0)
5. TB-PIT OVER 39.5 (+1.9) 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIA-DET UNDER 37.5 (-3.3)
2. LAC-LAR UNDER 38.5 (-2.8)
3. TEN-ATL UNDER 38.5 (-2.2)
4. JAX-NO UNDER 40.5 (-1.2)
5. BAL-DAL UNDER 36.5 (-0.8) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GREEN BAY +6 (+4.4)
2. SAN FRANCISCO +4.5 (+3.5)
3. NY JETS +3.5 (+2.6)
4. CLEVELAND +4.5 (+2.5)
5. DALLAS +1.5 (+1.3) 

This week’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TENNESSEE -4.5 (+3.3)
2. HOUSTON -2.5 (+1.9)
3. MIAMI -1.5 (+1.8) 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CLE-PHI OVER 37.5 (+2.8)
2. NE-MIN OVER 38.5 (+2.7)
3. BAL-DAL OVER 36.5 (+2.0)
4. KC-SEA OVER 39.5 (+1.6)
4. MIA-DET OVER 37.5 (+1.6)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TEN-ATL UNDER 38.5 (-2.1)
2. CIN-WAS UNDER 42.5 (-1.4)
3. TB-PIT UNDER 39.5 (-0.4)
4. GB-IND UNDER 39.5 (-0.1)
4. NYJ-NYG UNDER 39.5 (-0.1) 

These are some of the top situational NFL betting trends that have developed with teams in recent years of preseason action: 

KANSAS CITY (0-1) at SEATTLE (0-0)
-SEATTLE has gone Under the total in 11 of its last 15 preseason contests
-SEATTLE is on a 10-3 Under the total run in home preseason games
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): KC-SEA (o/u at 39.5) 

TENNESSEE (0-1) at ATLANTA (0-1)
-ATLANTA is on a 5-22-1 SU and 5-23 ATS skid in the preseason
-ATLANTA is just 2-11-1 SU and 1-13 ATS in its last 14 home preseason games, as well as 12-2 Under the total, scoring just 10 PPG
Trends Match: FADE ATLANTA (+4.5 vs TEN), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 38.5) 

ARIZONA (1-0) at DENVER (1-0)
-ARIZONA has lost its last five preseason games SU and ATS when coming off a win
Trend Match (FADE): ARIZONA (+5.5 at DEN)

-Outright winners are on an incredible 37-1-1 ATS run in DENVER preseason games
-DENVER has won seven straight home preseason contests while going 6-1 ATS
-DENVER is 14-4 SU and 12-5-1 ATS in the last 18 as a preseason favorite
Trends Match (PLAY): DENVER (-3 vs ARI) 

BALTIMORE (1-0) at DALLAS (0-1)
-BALTIMORE has lost seven of its last eight preseason games ATS after an incredible 21-1-1 ATS stretch
Trend Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (-1.5 at DAL)

-DALLAS is 6-15-2 ATS in the last 23 preseason games following a loss
Trend Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+1.5 vs BAL) 

CAROLINA (0-1) at HOUSTON (0-1)
-HOUSTON is on a 13-3 Under the total run in preseason games, total point production 32.7 PPG
-HOUSTON is 11-1 SU & ATS in the last 12 games, rebounding from a preseason loss
Trends Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-2.5 vs CAR), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 39.5) 

CLEVELAND (1-0) at PHILADELPHIA (1-0)
-CLEVELAND is on crazy 13-2 Under the total surge in preseason games following a win the week prior, allowing just 15.1 PPG
-CLEVELAND is 10-0-1 ATS since 2017, as well as 15-3-1 ATS in the last 19 as a preseason underdog
-CLEVELAND boasts a 10-3-1 SU and 12-2 ATS mark in its last 14 preseason contests on the road
Trends Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+4.5 at PHI), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 37.5)

-PHILADELPHIA has gone 6-14-2 SU and 7-14-1 ATS in the last 22 preseason games but has turned it around with a 3-1 SU and ATS mark since 2024
-PHILADELPHIA is on a 1-7-1 SU and 1-8 ATS skid at home in the preseason
-PHILADELPHIA is on a 1-6 ATS skid when laying points in the preseason
Trends Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-4.5 vs CLE) 

GREEN BAY (0-1) at INDIANAPOLIS (0-1)
-GREEN BAY has lost eight of its last nine games SU as a preseason dog (1-7-1 ATS)
Trend Match (FADE): GREEN BAY (+6 at IND)

-INDIANAPOLIS is on a 10-1 Over the total run in the last 11 as a preseason favorite
-INDIANAPOLIS is on a 13-5 Over the total run in preseason action, total point production 41.2 PPG
Trends Match (PLAY OVER): GB-IND (o/u at 39.5) 

MIAMI (0-0) at DETROIT (1-1)
-MIAMI has gone 11-6-1 SU and 12-6 ATS in its last 18 preseason games
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-3.5 at DET)

-DETROIT is on a 17-7 Over the total surge in preseason games, allowing 23.7 PPG.
-DETROIT is on skids of 2-9 SU and 2-8 ATS in home preseason games
Trends Match: FADE DETROIT (+1.5 vs MIA), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 37.5) 

NEW ENGLAND (1-0) at MINNESOTA (1-0)
-NEW ENGLAND is on a current 14-5 Under the total surge in the preseason
-NEW ENGLAND is 13-5 UNDER the total in its last 18 preseason road affairs
-NEW ENGLAND is 12-3 UNDER the total in the last 15 as preseason underdog
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): NE-MIN (o/u at 38.5) 

NY JETS (1-0) at NY GIANTS (1-0)
-NY JETS are on 13-3-1 SU and 13-4 ATS run in the preseason
-NY JETS have covered nine of the last 10 ATS as preseason underdogs
Trends Match (PLAY): NY JETS (+3.5 at NYG)

-NY GIANTS are 5-5 SU but just 2-8 ATS in three preseasons under head coach Brian Daboll
-NY GIANTS preseason games following up an outright win have gone Over the total, producing 52.3 PPG
-NY GIANTS are 2-10 ATS in the last 12 as preseason favorites
Trends Match: FADE NY GIANTS (-3.5 vs NYJ), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 39.5) 

SAN FRANCISCO (0-1) at LAS VEGAS (0-0)
-SAN FRANCISCO is on an 8-1-1 ATS streak as preseason underdog
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (+4.5 at LVR)

-LAS VEGAS is on a 7-1-1 SU and 8-1 ATS preseason home game surge, holding opponents to 12.2 PPG
Trend Match (PLAY): LAS VEGAS (-4.5 vs SF) 

TAMPA BAY (1-0) at PITTSBURGH (1-0)
-TAMPA BAY has gone Under the total in the last five on the road
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TB-PIT (o/u at 39.5)

-PITTSBURGH is 1-3 SU and ATS since the start of last year after an 18-4 SU and 16-6 ATS run previously
-PITTSBURGH is 10-3 SU and ATS in its last 13 as a preseason underdog
Trends Match (SLIGHT PLAY): PITTSBURGH (+3 vs TB) 

BUFFALO (0-1) at CHICAGO (0-0)
-BUFFALO is on a 13-5 SU and ATS surge in the preseason
-BUFFALO is on a 10-2 SU and 11-1 ATS surge as a preseason underdog
Trends Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (+2.5 at CHI)

-CHICAGO is on an 8-2-1 SU and 10-1 ATS run in the preseason
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (-2.5 vs BUF) 

JACKSONVILLE (0-1) at NEW ORLEANS (0-1)
-JACKSONVILLE is on a 6-1 SU and ATS run while outscoring opponents 26.6-14.1
-JACKSONVILLE has been a tremendous road preseason team, 14-5 ATS in its last 19
Trends Match (PLAY): JACKSONVILLE (-3.5 at NO)

-NEW ORLEANS has gone 19-8-1 Under the total in its last 28 preseason tilts
-NEW ORLEANS is 2-10 SU and 3-9 ATS in its last 12 as a preseason underdog
Trends Match: FADE NEW ORLEANS (+3.5 vs JAX), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 40.5) 

CINCINNATI (0-1) at WASHINGTON (0-1)
-CINCINNATI has struggled to a 3-14-1 SU and 7-11 ATS record in its last 18 preseason contests.
-CINCINNATI has gone 9-3 ATS in its last 12 road preseason tilts
-CINCINNATI is 2-8 ATS in the last 10 as preseason chalk
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 2 FADES of CINCINNATI (-4.5 at WAS)

-WASHINGTON has gone 10-1 Under the total in the last 11 games following a preseason loss
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CIN-WAS (o/u at 42.5)

These are the top head-to-head series NFL betting trends between teams from recent years’ preseason action: 

8/16/25 – NY JETS at NY GIANTS
* NY JETS are 4-0 SU and ATS in preseason head-to-head rivalry with NYG
Trend Match (PLAY): NY JETS (+3.5 at NYG) 

8/16/25 – SAN FRANCISCO at LAS VEGAS
* HOME TEAMS are 3-0 ATS in SF-LVR head-to-head preseason series since 2021
* OVER the total is 3-0 in this head-to-head preseason series as well
Trends Match (PLAY): LAS VEGAS (-4.5 vs SF), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 40.5)

8/16/25 – ARIZONA at DENVER
* Home teams are 5-1 SU and ATS in the last six of ARI-DEN preseason head-to-head series since 2016
Trend Match (PLAY): DENVER (-3 vs ARI) 

8/17/25 – BUFFALO at CHICAGO
* Underdogs are 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in BUF-CHI head-to-head preseason series since 2018
* Over the total is 4-0 in these games as well
Trends Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (+2.5 at CHI), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 40.5)

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Steve Makinen
Steve Makinen
As one of the original founders of StatFox, Steve Makinen has been in the business of sports betting and data analysis for almost 25 years now. In his time in the industry, Steve has worked in a variety of capacities on both sides of the betting counter, from his early days of developing the StatFox business, to almost a decade of oddsmaking consulting for one of the world's leading sportsbooks, to his last seven years as Point Spread Weekly and Analytics Director with VSiN. Steve has always believed that number crunching and handicapping through foundational trends and systems is the secret to success and he shares this data with VSiN readers on a daily basis for all of the major sports.

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