The following NFL betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NFL game on February 8, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFL board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NFL betting trends and systems for this week’s NFL games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* NFL teams that have won a game despite scoring less than 12 points in the victory have carried the momentum through the next game with a 22-13 SU and 23-11-1 ATS (67.6%) record.
System Match (PLAY): NEW ENGLAND (+4.5 vs SEA) 

* NEW ENGLAND is 38-7 SU and 33-12 ATS when riding a 3-game or more outright winning streak since 2016
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ENGLAND (+4.5 vs SEA) 

•Teams that allowed fewer points per game during the regular season have gone 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS (80%) in the last 10 Super Bowl games, including Philadelphia a year ago.
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-4.5 vs NE) 

•Teams that generated more yardage overall offensively in the regular season also own no edge when it comes to Super Bowl success, going 3-11 SU and 2-12 ATS (14.3%) in the last 14!
Trend Match (FADE): NEW ENGLAND (+4.5 vs SEA)

-Seattle is on a 33-17 Under the total surge in games with totals of 45 or higher
-New England is 30-20 Under the total in its last 50 games with totals of 45 or higher
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): SEA-NE (o/u at 45.5) 

ATS and Money Line Trends

* Favorites in the Super Bowl are 35-23 SU but own an ATS mark of 25-30-3 (45.5%) in the last 58, with the 1982 game having been a pick em’ point spread.
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE ML (-230 vs NE) 

* Over the past 24 years, underdogs own an 18-6 ATS (75%) edge, including 14-4 ATS in the last 18.
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ENGLAND (+4.5 vs SEA) 

* The outright winner is 49-7-3 ATS (87.5%) in the 58 previous Super Bowls. This is the highest mark of any playoff round.
* AFC teams are 8-4 ATS in last 12.
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ENGLAND (+4.5 vs SEA) 

* The team that is the better playoff seed is just 2-17-2 ATS (10.5%) in the last 28 Super Bowl games! Note, in 2011, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2018, 2019, 2022, and 2023, equal seeds matched up.
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-4.5 vs NE) 

* In the last five matchups between #1 and #2 seeds, the #2 seeds own a 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS edge.
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ENGLAND (+4.5 vs SEA)

Over/Under Trends

* Totals in the 43-47.5 range are on a 5-2 Over (71.4%) run, but the last two were Unders.
Trend Match (SLIGHT PLAY UNDER): SEA-NE (o/u at 45.5) 

* The 2025 Super Bowl was one of only 21 in history that saw both teams reach the 20-point mark. Sixteen of those were Overs. Odds makers expect both teams to score in the 20s here (25-20.5), as evidenced by the line/total combination.

6-point Teaser Trends

* Looking back at the 59 past Super Bowls in terms of 6-point teaser trends, favorites are 38-20 (65.5%) while underdogs are 40-17-1 (70.2%), relatively close performance marks. Note that the ‘82 game was a pick ’em point spread, so no favorite or underdog was measured. However, in the last 24 seasons, there has been a huge separation as favorites are just 13-11 (54.2%) while underdogs are 21-3 (87.5%). An underdog 6-point teaser would put New England at +10.5, likely a very attractive wager for most bettors considering that the Patriots haven’t lost by more than a TD all season long.
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ENGLAND TEASER +10.5 

* In terms of the two different conferences, AFC teams are 38-20-1 (65.5%) and NFC teams are 42-17 (71.2%) in the history of the Super Bowl game on 6-point teaser bets.

Teams’ Regular Season Offensive Statistics Trends

• Teams that scored more points per game during the regular season are only 8-14-1 ATS (36.4%) in the last 23 Super Bowl games.
Trend Match (FADE): NEW ENGLAND (+4.5 vs SEA) 

• Teams that generated more yardage overall offensively in the regular season also own no edge when it comes to Super Bowl success, going 3-11 SU and 2-12 ATS (14.3%) in the last 14!
Trend Match (FADE): NEW ENGLAND (+4.5 vs SEA) 

• Offensive yards per point has proven to be an effective statistical indicator for fading teams, as teams who have averaged fewer yards per point are just 8-15 ATS (34.8%) in the last 23 Super Bowls.
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-4.5 vs NE) 

• Teams that converted 3rd down opportunities more efficiently in the regular season also have a poor trend mark, 8-16 ATS (33.3%) in the last 24 Super Bowls.
Trend Match (FADE): NEW ENGLAND (+4.5 vs SEA) 

It appears to be detrimental to have generated the better offensive statistics in the regular season, coinciding directly with the recent success of underdogs and teams with the lesser records in this game. A bit of a change this year, New England owns most of the offensive edges for 2026 but is the underdog.

Teams’ Regular Season Defensive Statistics Trends

• Teams that allowed fewer points per game during the regular season are have gone 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS (80%) in the last 10 Super Bowl games, including Philadelphia a year ago.
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-4.5 vs NE) 

• Teams that allowed less yardage overall defensively are also just 8-11 ATS (42.1%) since 2007, but 8-6 ATS (57.1%) since 2012 in the Super Bowl. Teams with an edge in yards per play are 9-10 ATS (47.4%) since 2007, but 9-5 ATS (64.3%) in the last 14.
Trend Match (SLIGHT PLAY): SEATTLE (-4.5 vs NE)

• Defensive yards per point should only be given serious consideration for Super Bowl Sunday if you are fading the team with the edge, 7-13 ATS (35%) since 2006.
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-4.5 vs NE) 

• Teams that stopped 3rd down opportunities more efficiently in the regular season are on a 10-6 ATS (62.5%) run in the last 16 Super Bowl games.
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-4.5 vs NE) 

There has been increasing evidence of late that better defensive teams have the advantage in recent Super Bowl games, certainly when compared to the effectiveness of offensive statistical edges. Almost all of the edges for ’26 go to the favored Seahawks.

Favoring Seattle: 

– Seattle 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15 games when riding a winning streak of six or more games

– Seattle is on a 7-2 ATS run against decent teams, outscoring opponents by 3.0 or more PPG

– New England is 4-9-2 ATS in the last 15 games versus elite teams winning 80%+ of their games

Favoring New England:

– New England is on a 7-0 ATS streak revenging a loss (last year)

– New England is on an 11-4 ATS surge versus solid rushing defenses allowing less than 3.9 YPR

– New England is on an extended run of 71-42-4 ATS versus strong defensive teams allowing fewer than 18.5 PPG

Favoring Over the total

– Seattle is on a 12-3 Over the total surge in its last 15 playoff games

– New England is 12-3 Over the total in its last 15 games against decent passing teams averaging 6.8+ yards per attempt

Favoring Under the total

– Seattle is on a 33-17 Under the total surge in games with totals of 45 or higher

– New England is 30-20 Under the total in its last 50 games with totals of 45 or higher

These are some of the top situational trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action: 

(109) SEATTLE (16-3) at (110) NEW ENGLAND (17-3)
* SEATTLE is 25-18-1 ATS (58.1%) vs. non-conference foes since 2015
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-4.5 at NE)

* NEW ENGLAND is 38-7 SU and 33-12 ATS when riding a 3-game or more outright winning streak since 2016
* NEW ENGLAND is 20-28-2 ATS (41.7%) as an underdog since 2021
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of NEW ENGLAND (+4.5 vs SEA)

* SEATTLE is 22-10 Over the total vs. teams with a better record since 2011
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SEA-NE (o/u at 45.5)

NFL Retread Coaching Systems

This material is from the VSiN piece titled Analyzing the New NFL Head Coaches for 2025, detailing systems that apply to retread coach Mike Vrabel (New England).

Retread Coach Systems

– In non-conference games, they have really struggled, going 46-64 ATS (41.8%) over the last decade, including 19-34 ATS (35.8%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): NEW ENGLAND (+4.5 vs SEA) 

– Since 2015, when coming off a win or tie, these coaches have posted a modest 90-82 ATS (52.3%) record in their first seasons, including 40-29 ATS (58%) since mid-2022.
System Match (PLAY): NEW ENGLAND (+4.5 vs SEA) 

NFL Extreme Stats Next Game System

This system identifies extreme statistical performances in NFL games and details the results of the follow-up game for those teams. 

CRAZY LOW SCORING GAMES COMMAND ATTENTION
NFL teams that have won a game despite scoring less than 12 points in the victory have carried the momentum through the next game with a 22-13 SU and 23-11-1 ATS (67.6%) record.
System Match (PLAY): NEW ENGLAND (+4.5 vs SEA)

Strategies Using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published in the 2025 NFL Betting Guide, Steve Makinen outlined 12 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of Thursday, January 29, 2026 at 2:30 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage. 

Here is a quick tabulation on how DK bettors performed in the 2024 season: 

– Majority handle on point spreads: 141-131 ATS (51.8%)
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 140-130 ATS (51.9%)
– Majority handle on totals: 143-133 (51.8%)
– Majority number of bets on totals: 147-131 (52.9%) 

These are very good wrap up numbers by the standards that have been established in most of the similar reports I have done for other sports. Considering NFL betting is king, it’s nice to see recreational bettors like those at DraftKings holding their own. With that in mind, here are the systems with updated language and records heading into the 2025 season. 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #1: Over the past two seasons, when more than 68% of the handle has been on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group is just 71-81 ATS (46.7%).
System Match (FADE): SEATTLE

NFL DK Betting Splits system #4: In NFL non-conference games of 2023 and 2024, DK majority number of bets groups were actually quite sharp, going 79-64 ATS (55.2%).
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): SEATTLE 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #8: In another rare winning record, when the majority number of bets has backed the team with fewer season wins in a 2023 or 2024 NFL game for an ATS wager, this majority group was 46-38 ATS (54.8%).
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): SEATTLE

NFL Strength Ratings

The following NFL betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: NEW ENGLAND +4.5 (+1.0) 

UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: NEW ENGLAND +4.5 (+0.1) 

TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: SEA-NE OVER 45.5 (+1.7) 

UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: NEW ENGLAND +4.5 (+0.5) 

TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: SEA-NE UNDER 45.5 (-1.5) 

These are the top head-to-head series NFL betting trends between teams from recent years’ action: 

(109) SEATTLE vs (110) NEW ENGLAND
* Over the total has converted in all seven meetings between SEA and NE since 2004
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SEA-NE (o/u at 45.5)

* Underdogs are 5-5 SU and 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 of the series as well
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ENGLAND (+4.5 vs SEA)

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