Week 1 NFL Betting Trends:
The following NFL betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NFL games of Week 1. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFL board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NFL betting trends and systems for this week’s NFL games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Divisional home underdogs are 18-10-2 SU and 24-6 ATS (80%) in Week 1 since ’09 (Win: +17.4 units, ROI: 58%, Grade 75)
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (+5.5 vs CIN), ATLANTA (+2.5 vs TB), SEATTLE (+2.5 vs SF), CHICAGO (+1.5 vs MIN)
* Teams with a rookie starting quarterback in Weeks 1-3 have seen their total go Under at a 28-10 (73.7%) rate in the last 38 such contests.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): TEN-DEN (o/u at 42.5), MIN-CHI (o/u at 43.5)
* INDIANAPOLIS is on an impressive run of 15-2 SU and 14-3 (82.4%) ATS as a favorite of less than 3 points
Trend Match (PLAY): INDIANAPOLIS (-1.5 vs MIA)
* NFL opening week road teams that won between 4-6 games the prior season are 54-23-5 ATS (70.1%) since 2004 (Win: +28.7 units, ROI: 37.3%, Grade 70)
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CAROLINA (+3.5 at JAX), LAS VEGAS (+3 at NE), SAN FRANCISCO (-2.5 at SEA)
* PITTSBURGH’s Mike Tomlin is on crazy 32-9 (78%) Under the total run as a road favorite
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PIT-NYJ (o/u at 38.5)
* CINCINNATI is on an incredible 17-1 SU and ATS run as a road favorite of -3 to -7 points since 2015
Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (-5.5 at CLE)
* Home teams are 10-3 SU and 11-2 ATS in BAL-BUF head-to-head series since 1999
Trend Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (-1.5 vs BAL)
#1 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS: NEW ORLEANS +6.5 vs Arizona (projections have line at +4.0)
NFL Week 1 Systems
These are angles that take into account line positioning, how the teams fared the previous year and transition into the follow-up season opener, and whether or not revenge is in play.
SYSTEM #1: Divisional home underdogs are 18-10-2 SU and 24-6 ATS (80%) in Week 1 since 2009 (Win: +17.4 units, ROI: 58%, Grade 75)
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (+5.5 vs CIN), ATLANTA (+2.5 vs TB), SEATTLE (+2.5 vs SF), CHICAGO (+1.5 vs MIN)
SYSTEM #2: Home teams priced in the range of +3 to -3 in week 1 non-conference games have gone just 5-16 SU and 3-17-1 ATS since 2015 (Loss: -15.6 units, ROI: -78%, Grade 75)
System Match (FADE): LA RAMS (-3 vs HOU)
*WATCH FOR JACKSONVILLE vs CAR, -3.5 CURRENTLY
SYSTEM #3: NFL opening week road teams that won between 4-6 games the prior season are 54-23-5 ATS (70.1%) since 2004 (Win: +28.7 units, ROI: 37.3%, Grade 70)
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CAROLINA (+3.5 at JAX), LAS VEGAS (+3 at NE), SAN FRANCISCO (-2.5 at SEA)
SYSTEM #4: Divisional road underdogs of 6.5 points or less are on a 17-14 SU and 21-10-1 ATS (67.7%) run since 2013. (Win: +10 units, ROI: 32.2%, Grade 65)
System Matches (PLAY): NY GIANTS (+6 at WAS), DETROIT (+2.5 at GB)
SYSTEM #5: Laying big points is rarely a good idea in a Week 1 NFL contest, as underdogs of 6.5 points or more might be just 11-32-1 SU but they are 30-13-1 ATS (69.8%) in Week 1 since 2013 (Win: +15.7 units, ROI: 36.5%, Grade 67)
System Matches (PLAY ALL ATS): DALLAS (+8.5 at PHI), NEW ORLEANS (+6.5 vs ARI), TENNESSEE (+8.5 at DEN)
SYSTEM #6: Opening week home favorites hosting teams that were above .500 the prior season are 50-30-5 ATS (62.5%) since ’00 (Win: +17 units, ROI: 21.3%, Grade 60)
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANAPOLIS (-1.5 vs MIA), GREEN BAY (-2.5 vs DET), LA RAMS (-3 vs HOU), BUFFALO (-1.5 vs BAL)
SYSTEM #7: Week 1 favorites playing in a revenge spot from a loss the prior season are just 18-24 SU and 16-26 ATS (38.1%) over the last 13 seasons (Loss: -12.6 units, ROI: -30%, Grade 60)
System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY (-2.5 at ATL), SAN FRANCISCO (-2.5 at SEA), GREEN BAY (-2.5 vs DET)
Strategies Using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published in the 2025 NFL Betting Guide, Steve Makinen outlined 12 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of 2:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage.
Here is a quick tabulation on how DK bettors performed in the 2024 season:
– Majority HANDLE on point spreads: 141-131 ATS (51.8%)
– Majority number of BETS on point spreads: 140-130 ATS (51.9%)
– Majority HANDLE on totals: 143-133 (51.8%)
– Majority number of BETS on totals: 147-131 (52.9%)
These are very good wrap-up numbers by the standards that have been established in most of the similar reports I have done for other sports. Considering NFL betting is king, it’s nice to see recreational bettors like those at DraftKings holding their own. With that in mind, here are the systems with updated language and records heading into the 2025 season.
NFL DK Betting Splits system #1: Over the past two seasons, when more than 68% of the handle has been on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group is just 71-81 ATS (46.7%). The number for this “super-majority” in college football was closer to 75%. In other words, if you see over 2/3 of the handle backing one side in an NFL game this season, it’s consistently profitable to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH, MIAMI, CINCINNATI, ARIZONA, DENVER, SAN FRANCISCO, DETROIT, BALTIMORE
NFL DK Betting Splits system #2: In NFL divisional games of 2022-24, DK majority handle bettors have been awful, as this majority group is just 117-148 ATS (44.2%). With the obvious generality that public bettors love favorites, it’s clear that they don’t value the stakes of these rivalry games and what they mean for the competitors.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, KANSAS CITY, WASHINGTON, CINCINNATI, TAMPA BAY, SAN FRANCISCO, DETROIT, CHICAGO
NFL DK Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2 above, in that same time span, when the majority number of bets staked its side in an NFL divisional game, this majority group is just 118-150 ATS (44%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, KANSAS CITY, WASHINGTON, CINCINNATI, TAMPA BAY, SAN FRANCISCO, DETROIT, CHICAGO
NFL DK Betting Splits system #4: In NFL non-conference games of 2023 and 2024, DK majority number of bets groups were actually quite sharp, going 79-64 ATS (55.2%). This is obviously quite the opposite performance level of #3 above, and unfortunately for bettors, there are two fewer non-conference tilts than divisional contests for each team on the schedule every year. Of course, if strategically playing both spots according to these systems, every game in either situation is an opportunity.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): JACKSONVILLE, HOUSTON
NFL DK Betting Splits system #5: Since the start of the 2023 season, when the majority number of bets has backed road favorites for an ATS wager, these majority groups are actually 100-87 ATS (53.5%). I will tell you that there are only 15 games or fewer each year when this group will actually back the home dog. Watch this one closely, as backing road favorites in the NFL consistently has never been a consistent winning strategy.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH, CINCINNATI, ARIZONA, TAMPA BAY, SAN FRANCISCO
NFL DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority handle was on road underdogs for an ATS wager over the last two years, these majority groups have surprisingly struggled, 27-36 ATS (42.9%). This goes against the logic I have discovered in other sports, which says that when the public goes “against the grain”, they can do well. Quite the opposite here. As you can see, it is rare, just 63 games in two full seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI, DETROIT, HOUSTON, BALTIMORE
NFL DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle and number of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games over the last two seasons, these majority groups are just 100-114 ATS (46.7%) and 101-111 ATS (47.6%), respectively. This set of games includes all the Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests. These numbers were improved along with the overall majority figures last year, but I wouldn’t expect that to continue.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, KANSAS CITY, BALTIMORE, CHICAGO
DK Betting Splits system #9: The average NFL total in 2023 was 43.0. Last year, it ballooned back up to 44.6. In games where the totals reached 46.5 or higher and odds makers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, majority number of bettors have gauged these games incredibly well the last two years, going 96-72 ATS (60.8%)! We’ll see how that trend holds in ‘25.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – DAL-PHI, KC-LAC, CIN-CLE, TB-ATL, DET-GB, BAL-BUF
UNDER – MIA-IND, CAR-JAX
DK Betting Splits system #10: When 56% or more of the number of bets have been on the Under in an NFL game total over the last 2-1/2 seasons, this majority group has been quite sharp, 56-45 ATS (55.4%). This number for a “super-majority” in the NFL is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total. Incidentally, the same majority figure for handle has also produced a 74-62 (54.4%) record.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIA-IND, CAR-JAX
DK Betting Splits system #11: The magic mark for super majority on handle for betting Overs was 74% or higher, and this group performed miserably in 2023 and 2024 with a record of 46-69 (42.6%). To me, this has been a long-standing belief, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses. On number of bets, this same super majority percentage produced a slightly improved 30-37 (44.8%) record, still poor though.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL INSTEAD): CAR-JAX, BAL-BUF
Team/Coach/QB Specific Situational NFL Betting Trends
These are some of the top situational NFL betting trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action:
(451) DALLAS at (452) PHILADELPHIA
* DALLAS is 21-14 ATS (60%) in road/neutral games since 2021
* DALLAS’ Dak Prescott is 30-5 SU and 27-8 ATS in divisional games since 2017
* DALLAS’ Dak Prescott is on a 2-11 SU and ATS skid as a single-digit underdog
Trends Match: 2 PLAYS, 1 FADE of DALLAS (+8.5 at PHI)
* PHILADELPHIA’s Nick Sirianni boasts a 22-2 SU and 17-6 ATS record as a single-digit home favorite since 2021
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-8.5 vs DAL)
(453) KANSAS CITY vs (454) LA CHARGERS
* KANSAS CITY is 10-18-1 ATS (35.7%) vs. divisional opponents since 2020
* KANSAS CITY is 56-38-1 ATS (59.6%) in road/neutral games since 2014
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of KANSAS CITY (-3 vs LAC)
(455) PITTSBURGH at (456) NY JETS
* PITTSBURGH is 23-30 ATS (43.4%) as a favorite since 2018
* PITTSBURGH is 102-69 Under the total (59.6%) since 2015
* PITTSBURGH’s Mike Tomlin is on crazy 32-9 Under the total run as a road favorite
* PITTSBURGH’s Aaron Rodgers is 21-8 Over the total as a single-digit road favorite since 2015
* PITTSBURGH’s Aaron Rodgers is 9-13 SU and 6-16 ATS as a single-digit road favorite since 2021
Trends Match: 2 FADES of PITTSBURGH (-3 at NYJ), also 1 PLAY OVER, 2 PLAYS UNDER the total (o/u at 38.5)
* NY JETS’ Justin Fields is 11-26 SU and 14-21-2 ATS (40%) in Sunday games. The average line was +3.1, Team average PF: 19.6
Trend Match (FADE): NY JETS (+3 vs PIT)
(457) MIAMI at (458) INDIANAPOLIS
* MIAMI is 51-39 ATS (56.7%) as an underdog since 2014
* MIAMI’s Mike McDaniel is on a 2-12 SU and 3-11 ATS skid as a single-digit underdog
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of MIAMI (+1.5 at IND)
* INDIANAPOLIS is on an impressive run of 15-2 SU and 14-3 ATS as a favorite of less than 3 points
Trend Match (PLAY): INDIANAPOLIS (-1.5 vs MIA)
(459) CAROLINA at (460) JACKSONVILLE
* JACKSONVILLE is 8-49 SU and 14-42 ATS versus NFC foes since 2011
* JACKSONVILLE is 19-28 ATS (40.4%) as a favorite since 2018
* JACKSONVILLE is 39-30 Under the total (56.5%) since 2021
Trends Match: 2 FADES of JACKSONVILLE (-3.5 vs CAR), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 46.5)
(461) NY GIANTS at (462) WASHINGTON
* NY GIANTS are 55-28 Under the total (66.3%) since 2020
* NY GIANTS’ Brian Daboll is on 19-8 Under the total surge as a single-digit underdog
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): NYG-WSH (o/u at 45.5)
* WASHINGTON is 16-32 ATS (33.3%) vs. divisional opponents since 2017
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (-6 vs NYG)
(463) CINCINNATI at (464) CLEVELAND
* CINCINNATI is on an incredible 17-1 SU and ATS run as a road favorite of -3 to -7 points since 2015
* CINCINNATI is 56-31 ATS (64.4%) in road/neutral games since 2015
* CINCINNATI’s Zac Taylor boasts a 20-5 SU and 18-5 ATS record as a favorite of -3 to -7 points since 2022
Trends Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (-5.5 at CLE)
* CLEVELAND is 32-45 ATS (41.6%) at home since 2015
* CLEVELAND is 21-39 ATS (35%) vs. divisional opponents since 2015
* CLEVELAND’s Joe Flacco is 17-7 Under the total in starts versus divisional foes since 2016
Trends Match: FADE CLEVELAND (+5.5 vs CIN), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 47.5)
(465) LAS VEGAS at (466) NEW ENGLAND
* LAS VEGAS is 36-50 ATS (41.9%) in road/neutral games since 2015
Trend Match (FADE): LAS VEGAS (+3 at NE)
(467) ARIZONA at (468) NEW ORLEANS
* ARIZONA is 19-32 ATS (37.3%) as a favorite since 2016
* ARIZONA is 30-22 ATS (57.7%) in road/neutral games since 2019
* ARIZONA’s Kyler Murray is just 4-10 SU and ATS in his last 14 starts as a favorite
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 2 FADES of ARIZONA (-6.5 at NO)
* NEW ORLEANS is 24-42 ATS (36.4%) at home since 2017
Trend Match (FADE): NEW ORLEANS (+6.5 vs AZ)
(469) TAMPA BAY at (470) ATLANTA
* TAMPA BAY is 36-50 ATS (41.9%) as a favorite since 2014
* TAMPA BAY’s Todd Bowles is on 13-4 Under the total run as road favorite
Trends Match: FADE TAMPA BAY (-2.5 at ATL), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 47.5)
* ATLANTA is 20-36 ATS (35.7%) at home since 2018
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (+2.5 vs TB)
(471) TENNESSEE at (472) DENVER
* TENNESSEE is on a 7-28 SU and 7-27-1 ATS skid in Sunday games
* TENNESSEE is 33-49-1 ATS (40.2%) in non-divisional conference games since 2014
Trends Match (FADE): TENNESSEE (+8.5 at DEN)
* DENVER is 24-33 ATS (42.1%) as a favorite since 2017
* DENVER is 98-67 Under the total (59.4%) since 2015
Trends Match: FADE DENVER (-8.5 vs TEN), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 42.5)
(473) SAN FRANCISCO at (474) SEATTLE
* SAN FRANCISCO’s Brock Purdy is on 8-4 Over the total surge vs. divisional opponents
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SF-SEA (o/u at 43.5)
* SEATTLE is 37-27 ATS (57.8%) as an underdog since 2016
* SEATTLE’s Sam Darnold is on a 8-2 SU and ATS surge as an underdog
Trends Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (+2.5 vs SF)
(475) DETROIT at (476) GREEN BAY
* DETROIT is 47-20-1 ATS (70.1%) overall since 2021
* DETROIT’s Jared Goff is 10-10 SU and 17-3 ATS as a single-digit underdog since 2021
* DETROIT’s Jared Goff is 16-5 SU and 16-4-1 ATS in divisional games since 2021
Trends Match (PLAY): DETROIT (+2.5 at GB)
* GREEN BAY is 20-15-1 ATS (57.1%) vs. divisional opponents since 2019
* GREEN BAY is 91-20 SU and 70-39 ATS as a home favorite since 2009
* GREEN BAY’s Matt Lafleur is 18-13 SU but 11-20 ATS as a single-digit favorite since 2021
Trends Match: 2 PLAYS, 1 FADE of GREEN BAY (-2.5 vs DET)
(477) HOUSTON at (478) LA RAMS
* LA RAMS are 14-18 ATS (43.8%) vs. non-conference foes since 2018
* LA RAMS are 51-40 Under the total (56%) since 2020
Trends Match: FADE LA RAMS (-3 vs HOU), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 43.5)
(479) BALTIMORE at (480) BUFFALO
* BALTIMORE is 13-14 SU but 21-6 ATS as an underdog since 2018
* BALTIMORE is 44-23 ATS (65.7%) in road/neutral games since 2017
Trends Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (+1.5 at BUF)
* BUFFALO is 40-29 ATS (58%) in non-divisional conference games since 2017
* BUFFALO’s Sean McDermott boasts a 15-3 SU and ATS record as a short favorite of less than 3 points since 2017
Trends Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (-1.5 vs BAL)
(481) MINNESOTA at (482) CHICAGO
* MINNESOTA is 4-23 SU and 8-20 ATS as a divisional road underdog since 2010
* MINNESOTA is 57-46 Over the total (55.3%) since 2019
Trends Match: FADE MINNESOTA (-1.5 at CHI), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 43.5)
* CHICAGO is 9-24 SU and 11-22 ATS versus divisional opponents since 2019
* CHICAGO is 28-42-1 ATS (40%) as an underdog since 2019
Trends Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+1.5 vs MIN)
NFL Rookie/Retread Coaching Systems
This material is from the VSiN piece entitled Analyzing the New NFL Head Coaches for 2025 detailing systems that apply to rookie coaches Ben Johnson (Chicago), Brian Schottenheimer (Dallas), Liam Coen (Jacksonville), Kellen Moore (New Orleans), and Aaron Glenn (NY Jets) as well as re-tread coaches Pete Carroll (Las Vegas) and Mike Vrabel (New England).
Rookie Coach Systems
(Games this week: DAL(+8.5)-PHI, PIT-NYJ(+3), CAR-JAX(-3.5), ARI-NO(+6.5), MIN-CHI(+1.5))
– Rookie head coaches haven’t been good at covering spreads at home over the last decade – 146-172-10 ATS (45.9%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY JETS, JACKSONVILLE, NEW ORLEANS, CHICAGO
– Rookie head coaches have also struggled in the large underdog role, going 27-113 SU (19.3%) and 66-74 ATS (47.1%) when catching 7 points or more since 2017.
System Match (FADE): DALLAS
– In a trend that seems to make sense as far as familiarity is concerned, the more familiar the opponent, the less successful rookie head coaches have been. Since 2015: Divisional games 111-125-4 ATS (47%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): DALLAS, CHICAGO
Retread Coach Systems
(Game this week: LVR-NE)
– Unlike the rookie HC’s, retread head coaches have been more proficient at covering point spreads at home since 2020. Here is the breakdown: Home games – 48-43 ATS (52.7%). Road/Neutral games – 47-52 ATS (47.5%).
System Match (PLAY): NEW ENGLAND (-3 vs LVR)
– Retread head coaches have been brutal bets as favorites but respectable in the underdog role in their first seasons with a new franchise. As favorites since 2015, they’ve gone 91-66 SU but just 58-88-11 ATS, for 39.7%! As dogs (or pick ’em), 79-165 SU and 121-117-6 ATS (50.8%).
System Match (FADE): NEW ENGLAND (-3 vs LVR)
NFL Rookie Quarterback Systems
These systems take into account rookie quarterback records in their first seasons. They include game logs of any rookie who started seven or more games in that first season. The starters out of the gate in 2025 include Cam Ward (Tennessee) and JJ McCarthy (Minnesota), although others could join them down the road.
(Games this week: TEN(+8.5)-DEN, MIN(-1.5)-CHI)
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #3 – Rookie quarterbacks have gotten off to slow starts of late
· As part of their overall recent struggles, rookie quarterbacks have struggled for bettors as early-season starters, going 6-23-1 SU and 11-18-1 ATS (37.9%) in their last 21 Week 1-3 games. They are also on a 28-10 UNDER the total (73.7%) run in their last 38 such contests.
System Matches: FADE TENNESSEE, FADE MINNESOTA
Also PLAY UNDER the total in: TEN-DEN (o/u at 42.5), MIN-CHI (o/u at 43.5)
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Rookie quarterbacks have struggled on the road
· Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie starters have combined for a record of 137-123 ATS (52.7%) in home games but just 119-141 ATS (45.8%) in road/neutral games.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TENNESSEE, MINNESOTA
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #6 – Don’t fall for the big underdog point spreads with rookie quarterbacks
· Since 2015, rookie starting quarterbacks facing underdog lines of 6.5 points or more have won just 21 games, going 21-121 SU and 56-82-4 ATS (40.6%).
System Match (FADE): TENNESSEE
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #10 – By type of opponent, divisional matchups have been toughest for rookie starting quarterbacks
· The breakdown of success level against Division, Conference, and Non-Conference opponents has been definitive for rookie starting quarterbacks. Here are those trends:
– Since 2015, rookie QBs are just 48-105 SU and 64-84-4 ATS (43.2%) versus divisional opponents.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA
– Since 2018, rookie QBs have fared well against non-divisional conference opponents, going 54-63 SU but 67-49 ATS (57.8%).
System Match (PLAY): TENNESSEE
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #12 – Non-Sunday games have been a respite for rookie QB’s
· Rookie quarterbacks have fared reasonably well under the spotlight of non-Sunday games lately, going 20-23 SU and 27-14-2 ATS (65.9%) in their last 43 such tries. Moreover, they are 20-6-1 ATS (76.9%) in their last 27 Monday Night contests.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA
NFL Veteran Quarterback Leading New Team Systems
These systems take into account veteran quarterback records in their first season with a new team. They include game logs of 32 different veteran QBs since 2004 who have played at least eight years in the NFL and started extensively on a previous team. This year, there are three different QBs finding themselves in a new place: Aaron Rodgers (Pittsburgh), Russell Wilson (NY Giants), and Geno Smith (Las Vegas).
(Games this week: PIT(-3)-NYJ, NYG(+6)-WAS, LVR(+3)-NE)
NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #1 – Veteran quarterbacks start slow for their new teams
· It takes a little time for these veteran quarterbacks to find their footing with their new franchises. In fact, dating back to 2006, in the month of September, these guys have gone 42-27-1 Under the total (60.9%), averaging about 1.5 PPG less than usual offensively.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): PIT-NYJ, NYG-WAS, LVR-NE
NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #6 – By type of opponent, non-divisional conference matchups have been best for veteran starting quarterbacks in their first season with new teams
· Since 2005, veteran QBs in their first season with new teams have fared well against non-divisional conference opponents, going 83-71 SU and 83-69-2 ATS (54.6%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH, LAS VEGAS
NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #10 – Veteran quarterbacks have been atrocious in the road favorite role with new teams
· Since the start of the 2004 season, veteran starting quarterbacks playing their first seasons with new teams have performed terribly in the road favorite role, 45-35 SU but 29-50-1 ATS (36.7%).
System Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH
NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #11 – Veteran quarterbacks are consistent bets as smaller road underdogs with new teams
· Dating back to 2006, veteran starting quarterbacks in their first seasons with new teams have gone 35-31 SU and 44-22 ATS (66.7%) when playing as road underdogs of +5.5 points or fewer.
System Match (PLAY): LAS VEGAS
TNF, SNF, and MNF Team NFL Betting Trends and Systems
The following trends and systems come from a log of all the Thursday night (TNF), Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night (MNF) games since the start of the 2019 season. Only Thursday night games were included in the TNF study, not the day games played on Thanksgiving. The Sunday night games only included those games played on Sunday night, not all of the games covered by the NBC SNF crew, which also included some Wednesday and Saturday contests. The games analyzed were only regular-season games.
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
· There has been some interesting data regarding the first and second half of the season in terms of Thursday night games. In the first half of the season, or weeks 1-8, home teams have gone 24-22 SU but 15-29-2 ATS (34.1%) in the last 46. Going back even further, since 2016, TNF home teams in Weeks 9 and later are 44-27 SU and 42-26-3 ATS (61.8%).
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-8.5 vs DAL)
· NFL Home Favorites of 7 points or more are on a 30-2 SU and 21-9-2 ATS (70%) run on Thursday games since the start of the 2014 season.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-8.5 vs DAL)
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
· Home favorites of less than a TD on SNF have gone the complete opposite direction, showing a record of 24-14 SU and 17-21 ATS (44.7%) in their last 38 after going 40-18-2 ATS prior.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): BUFFALO (-1.5 vs BAL)
Good SNF Team Trends
Buffalo 7-2 SU since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY): BUFFALO ML (-112 vs BAL)
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
· NFL home underdogs on Monday Night are on a run of 14-17 SU and 17-13-1 ATS (56.7%) dating back to September 2021. The last 29 of these games have seen Under the total go 21-6-2 (77.8%) as well, games producing just 39.1 PPG.
System Matches: PLAY CHICAGO (+1.5 vs MIN), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 43.5)
· Home teams have enjoyed little advantage in divisional MNF games of late, going 16-15 SU and 11-19-1 ATS (36.7%) in their last 31 tries.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+1.5 vs MIN)
UNDER the total MNF Team Trends
Chicago 10-3-1 UNDER L14
Minnesota 14-2 UNDER L16, incl. 9-1 on road
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): MIN-CHI (o/u at 43.5)
If you’ve picked up from each of the team trends sections that certain teams are consistently doing well or poorly, or are going Over or Under regularly, you’re right. Here are some overall primetime game trends that you’re going to want to consider:
Good PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trends
Baltimore 28-12 SU and 25-14-1 ATS in the last 40
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (+1.5 at BUF)
Buffalo 17-7 SU and 14-10 ATS primetime run
Trend Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (-1.5 vs BAL)
Dallas 14-8 ATS in the last 22
Trend Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+8.5 at PHI)
Bad PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trends
Chicago 4-13 SU and 6-11 ATS in the last 17
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+1.5 vs MIN)
UNDER the total PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trends
Minnesota 25-12 Under primetime record since 2015
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIN-CHI (o/u at 43.5)
This Week’s NFL Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1(tie). NEW ORLEANS +6.5 (+2.5)
CHICAGO +1.5 (+2.5)
3. MIAMI +1.5 (+1.5)
4. NY JETS +3 (+0.8)
5. DETROIT +2.5 (+0.7)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. WASHINGTON -6 (+1.7)
2. LA RAMS -3 (+0.9)
3. BUFFALO -1.5 (+0.7)
4. KANSAS CITY -3 (+0.5)
5. NEW ENGLAND -3 (+0.4)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHICAGO +1.5 (+3.9)
2. NY GIANTS +6 (+3.5)
3(tie). NEW ORLEANS +6.5 (+2.5)
TENNESSEE +8.5 (+2.5)
5. ATLANTA +2.5 (+1.4)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHILADELPHIA -8.5 (+3.4)
2. BUFFALO -1.5 (+1.9)
3. CINCINNATI -5.5 (+1.7)
4. GREEN BAY -2.5 (+0.6)
5. JACKSONVILLE -3.5 (+0.3)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PIT-NYJ OVER 38.5 (+1.6)
2. ARI-NO OVER 43.5 (+0.9)
3. SF-SEA OVER 43.5 (+0.8)
4. HOU-LAR OVER 43.5 (+0.6)
5. TEN-DEN OVER 42.5 (+0.5)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. KC-LAC UNDER 46.5 (-1.7)
2. DAL-PHI UNDER 47.5 (-1.4)
3(tie). MIA-JAX UNDER 47.5 (-1.1)
BAL-BUF UNDER 50.5 (-1.1)
5. LVR-NE UNDER 43.5 (-0.9)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHICAGO +1.5 (+2.8)
2. NEW ORLEANS +6.5 (+2.2)
3. MIAMI +1.5 (+1.6)
4. NY JETS +3 (+0.9)
5. DETROIT +2.5 (+0.7)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAN FRANCISCO -2.5 (+1.9)
2. WASHINGTON -6 (+1.5)
3. LA RAMS -3 (+0.9)
4. NEW ENGLAND -3 (+0.5)
5. KANSAS CITY -3 (+0.4)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1(tie). SF-SEA OVER 43.5 (+2.2)
DET-GB OVER 47.5 (+2.2)
3. PIT-NYJ OVER 38.5 (+2.1)
4. TB-ATL OVER 47.5 (+1.9)
5. BAL-BUF OVER 50.5 (+1.7)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. KC-LAC UNDER 46.5 (-1.7)
2. CIN-CLE UNDER 47.5 (-1.4)
3. DAL-PHI UNDER 47.5 (-1.2)
4. LVR-NE UNDER 43.5 (-1.1)
5. MIA-IND UNDER 47.5 (-1.0)
Top NFL Head-to-Head Series NFL Betting Trends
These are the top head-to-head series NFL betting trends between teams from recent years’ action:
(451) DALLAS at (452) PHILADELPHIA
* Favorites are on runs of 8-0 ATS in the last eight and 16-3 ATS in the last 19 of DAL-PHI head-to-head divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-8.5 vs DAL)
(453) KANSAS CITY vs. (454) LA CHARGERS
* Under the total is 5-1 in the last six of the KC-LAC head-to-head divisional series
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): KC-LAC (o/u at 46.5)
(455) PITTSBURGH at (456) NY JETS
* Under the total is a perfect 6-0 in the PIT-NYJ series at New York since 2000
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PIT-NYJ (o/u at 38.5)
(457) MIAMI at (458) INDIANAPOLIS
* Underdogs are 12-5 SU and 14-3 ATS in the last 17 of the MIA-IND series (although IND won and covered as a 3-point favorite last year)
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+1.5 at IND)
(459) CAROLINA at (460) JACKSONVILLE
* Favorites have won seven straight SU and five straight ATS in the CAR-JAX series
Trend Match (PLAY): JACKSONVILLE (-3.5 vs CAR)
(461) NY GIANTS at (462) WASHINGTON
* NY GIANTS are 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS in the last seven visits to Washington (but did lose ATS last year as +1.5 underdog)
Trend Match (PLAY): NY GIANTS (+6 at WAS)
(463) CINCINNATI at (464) CLEVELAND
* Under the total is 5-1-1 in the last seven of CIN-CLE in-state rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CIN-CLE (o/u at 47.5)
(465) LAS VEGAS at (466) NEW ENGLAND
* Favorites are 10-0 SU and 8-1-1 ATS in the Raiders-Patriots series since 2002
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ENGLAND (-3 vs LVR)
(467) ARIZONA at (468) NEW ORLEANS
* Home teams are 8-1 ATS in the last nine ARI-NO matchups
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+6.5 vs ARI)
(469) TAMPA BAY at (470) ATLANTA
* ATLANTA is 5-1 ATS in the last three seasons versus Tampa Bay
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+2.5 vs TB)
(471) TENNESSEE at (472) DENVER
* DENVER has covered all five head-to-head games when hosting the Titans organization since 1992
Trend Match (PLAY): DENVER (-8.5 vs TEN)
(473) SAN FRANCISCO at (474) SEATTLE
* Road teams have covered five of the last six in the SF-SEA divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-2.5 at SEA)
(475) DETROIT at (476) GREEN BAY
* DETROIT is 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven matchups with Green Bay
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (+2.5 at GB)
(479) BALTIMORE at (480) BUFFALO
* Home teams are 10-3 SU and 11-2 ATS in the BAL-BUF series since 1999
Trend Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (-1.5 vs BAL)
(481) MINNESOTA at (482) CHICAGO
* MINNESOTA is 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS in the last five visits to Chicago
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-1.5 at CHI)
