The following NFL betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NFL games of Week 10. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFL board. 

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top NFL betting trends and systems for this week’s NFL games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

There have been 30 TNF games since 2012 with a total of 50 or greater, they went Under at a 22-8 rate (73.3%).
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CIN-BAL (o/u at 53.5)

* DENVER is 12-13 SU but 20-5 ATS bouncing back after a game having scored 14 points or less since 2019
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (+8 at KC) 

New Orleans: 13-1 ATS stretch in revenge games
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+4 vs. ATL)

* MIAMI’s Mike McDaniel is on 0-9 SU and 1-8 ATS skid as a single-digit underdog
System Match (FADE): MIAMI (+1 at LAR)

Since the start of the 2020 season, rookie starting quarterbacks have taken care of business in the home favorite role, going 35-8 SU and 32-10-1 ATS (76.2%).
System Matches: PLAY – WASHINGTON, CHICAGO

* LA CHARGERS are on 13-0 Under the total streak when playing on normal rest (7 days)
Systems Match (PLAY UNDER): TEN-LAC (o/u at 39)

NFL Streaks Betting System #2: NFL teams that have won their last three games outright, with the first being in upset fashion and then being favored in the latter games, are 87-18 SU and 69-36 ATS (65.7%) in the follow-up game when favored by 3 points or more.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY (-8 vs. DEN), DETROIT (-3.5 at HOU)

The 49ers are 0-8 SU and ATS in their last eight post-bye week games versus non-divisional NFC foes
System Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (-5.5 at TB)

* DALLAS is on six-game SU and ATS win streak hosting Philadelphia
System Match: PLAY DALLAS (+7 vs PHI) 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #15: Call this one the Over trap, but when a super-majority (>=64%) of handle has been on the Over, but DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week, this majority group has lost big, going just 50-74 (40.3%) over the past two-plus seasons.
System Matches (INSTEAD PLAY UNDER): NYJ-ARI (o/u at 46) 

Strategies Using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published in the 2024 NFL Betting Guide, Steve Makinen outlined 12 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022 and 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of Wednesday. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage.

Here are the systems with updated language and records we will continue to track for the rest of the 2024 season.

NFL DK Betting Splits system #1: Over the past two-plus seasons, when more than 65% of the handle has been on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group is just 130-139 ATS (48.3%). The number for this “super-majority” in college football was closer to 80%. The record for this year has been 34-28 AYS, including 21-9 ATS backing road teams. It’s hard to see this one continuing. We will continue to recommend that if you see 2/3 of the handle backing one side in an NFL game this season, it’s consistently profitable to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY GIANTS, BUFFALO, MINNESOTA, ATLANTA, DENVER, SAN FRANCISCO, CHICAGO, PHILADELPHIA, ARIZONA, DETROIT 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #2: In NFL divisional games of 2022-24, DK majority handle bettors have been awful, as this majority group is just 91-117 ATS (43.8%). With the obvious generality that public bettors love favorites, it’s clear that they don’t value the stakes of these rivalry games and what they mean for the competitors. So far in 2024, this is 20-17, but the bulk of the season’s 96 divisional games are still yet to come.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE, ATLANTA, DENVER, PHILADELPHIA 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2 above, in that same time span, when the majority number of bets staked its side in an NFL divisional game, this majority group is just 96-114 ATS (45.7%), but 20-15 ATS in 2024.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE, ATLANTA, DENVER, PHILADELPHIA

NFL DK Betting Splits system #4: In NFL non-conferences games of 2023 and 2024, DK majority number of bets groups have actually been quite sharp, as this majority group is 60-50 ATS (54.5%), performing at nearly the exact same level in each season. This is obviously quite the opposite performance level of #2 above, and unfortunately for bettors, there are two fewer non-conference tilts than divisional contests for each team on the schedule every year. Of course, if strategically playing both spots according to these systems, every game in either situation is an opportunity.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA, WASHINGTON, CHICAGO, ARIZONA, DETROIT, LA RAMS

NFL DK Betting Splits system #5: Since the start of the 2022 season, when the majority number of bets has backed road favorites for an ATS wager, these majority groups are just 108-123 ATS (46.7%). I will tell you that there are only 15 games or less each year when this group will actually back the home dog. However, this system is 28-18 ATS for 2024, a major factor as to why bettors are doing well overall. I suspect if (or when) this turns, DK will regain the advantage.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BUFFALO, MINNESOTA, ATLANTA, SAN FRANCISCO, PHILADELPHIA, DETROIT 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority number of bets was on road underdogs for an ATS wager, these majority groups have actually produced adequate records, 71-65 ATS (52.2%) going back to September 2022. This matches up somewhat with the logic I used in explaining some college successes. When the public goes “against the grain”, they can do well.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): DENVER 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle and number of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games over the last two seasons, these majority groups are just 78-95 ATS (45.1%) and 76-94 ATS (44.7%) respectively. This set of games includes all the Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE, DETROIT

NFL DK Betting Splits system #8: In another rare winning record, when the majority of the handle has backed the team with fewer season wins in a 2022-24 NFL game for an ATS wager, this majority group is 69-56 ATS (55.2%). This has proven to be another situation in which going against the grain pays off.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DENVER, TENNESSEE, MIAMI

The following are some new money line systems we will be employing going forward…

NFL DK Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle has backed a team in a money line wager but not real strongly (in the 40%-60%) range, they have really struggled in 2024, going 16-26 for -13.71 units of loss, a ROI of -32.6%. It seems that conviction is an important thing when majority groups get together. If it seems as if the DK betting public might be “guessing” as to who wins, fade it.
System Matches (FADE): PITTSBURGH ML

NFL DK Betting Splits system #10: Super majority handle bettors of more than 75% have also struggled in games when backing bigger favorites on money lines. In games with point spreads of -4.5 or higher (approx. -225 or more ML), this super majority group has gone just 23-13 but for -15.53 units of loss, an ROI of -43.1% in 2024. Public bettors tend to look at these games as more “automatic” wagers, and as you can tell, they aren’t.
System Matches (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY ML, SAN FRANCISCO ML, LA CHARGERS ML, PHILADELPHIA ML 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #11: Majority number of bets groups have been at their best in 2024 on money lines in the Sunday afternoon games when backing small favorites (4 points or less, and approximately -220 or less). These groups boast an impressive 33-10 record for +18.93 units of profit and an ROI of +44%! These include the games in the 1:00 PM ET-4:30 PM ET starting slots, and with more choices at these times, bettors are faring well.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BUFFALO ML, MINNESOTA ML, PITTSBURGH ML, ATLANTA ML, NY JETS ML

These next systems cover totals… 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #12: Since 2022, the average NFL total has been right around 44 or a tic higher. Since mid-2023, majority handle bettors have been very sharp in dealing with totals at or below that number (44 or less). In fact, since November 2023, these groups have gone 97-66 (59.5%)! It’s in the higher totaled games that they typically fare worse.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – DEN-KC
UNDER – NYG-CAR, NE-CHI, TEN-LAC, PHI-DAL 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #13: When 56% or more of the handle has been on the Under in an NFL game total over the last two seasons, this majority group has been quite sharp, 70-52 ATS (57.4%). This number for a “super-majority” in the NFL is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total. Incidentally, the same majority figure for number of bets has also produced a 54-39 (58.1%) record.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NYG-CAR, MIN-JAX, NE-CHI, PHI-DAL, DET-HOU 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #14: Quite the opposite of #9, the magic mark for super majority on handle for betting Overs was 64% or higher, and this group performed miserably in 2022-24 with a record of 121-153 (44.2%). To me, this has been a long-standing belief, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses.
System Matches (INSTEAD PLAY UNDER ALL): BUF-IND, PIT-WAS, ATL-NO, NYJ-ARI

NFL DK Betting Splits system #15: Call this one the Over trap, but when a super-majority (>=64%) of the handle has been on the Over, but DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week, this majority group has lost big, going just 50-74 (40.3%) over the past two-plus seasons. Almost as if they were trying to bait more people into taking the Over. This is a classic example of where those behind the counter are smarter than those trying to cash the tickets.
System Matches (INSTEAD PLAY UNDER): NYJ-ARI 

These are some of the top situational trends that have developed with teams and their main components in recent years of action:

* ARIZONA is 38-18 SU and 35-21 ATS vs. poor teams with winning percentages <=33% since 2012
* ARIZONA’s Kyler Murray is just 2-7 SU and ATS in his last nine starts as a favorite
Systems Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of ARIZONA (-1 vs. NYJ)
* ARIZONA’s Kyler Murray is 7-0 Over the total vs. teams with a losing record since 2022
System Match (PLAY OVER): NYJ-ARI (o/u at 46)

* ATLANTA is 56-45 SU but 37-64 ATS as a single-digit favorite since 2012
* ATLANTA’s Kirk Cousins is 9-0 SU and 8-0-1 ATS in the last eight games as a road favorite
* ATLANTA is on 10-14 SU and 6-18 ATS skid on normal rest (7 days)
Systems Match: 2 FADEs, 1 PLAY of ATLANTA (-4 at NO)
* ATLANTA’s Raheem Morris is on 9-4 Over the total surge vs. teams with a losing record
System Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-NO (o/u at 46)

* BALTIMORE is 24-13 SU but 12-24 ATS as a divisional home favorite since 2010
* BALTIMORE’s Lamar Jackson is 26-8 SU and 22-11 ATS in a game following up scoring 30+ points since 2018
* BALTIMORE’s Lamar Jackson is 23-11 SU and 12-21 ATS as a single-digit home favorite since 2018
Systems Match: 2 FADEs, 1 PLAY of BALTIMORE (-6 vs. CIN) 

* BUFFALO’s Josh Allen is 33-18 Under the total on the road since 2018
System Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (-3.5 at IND) 

* CAROLINA is 6-17 SU and 5-18 ATS vs. poor teams with winning percentages <=33% since 2017
* CAROLINA’s Bryce Young is 3-17 SU and 6-13 ATS in his last 19 starts as an underdog
Systems Match (FADE): CAROLINA (+6.5 vs. NYG)

* CHICAGO’s Matt Eberflus is 7-10 SU and 5-11 ATS vs. teams with a losing record since 2022
* CHICAGO’s Matt Eberflus is on a 6-0 SU and ATS streak at home
Systems Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE on CHICAGO (-6 vs NE)
* CHICAGO’s Matt Eberflus is on a 16-9 OVER the total surge when coming off an outright loss
System Match (PLAY OVER): NE-CHI (o/u at 39)

* CINCINNATI is 53-62 SU but 70-42 ATS on the road dating back to 2011
* CINCINNATI’s Zac Taylor is on 12-6 SU and 14-4 ATS run vs. elite teams with winning percentages >=66.7%
* CINCINNATI’s Joe Burrow is on 8-9 SU but 15-2 ATS run as an underdog of +3 to 7 points
* CINCINNATI’s Joe Burrow is 10-7 SU and 14-3 ATS in his last 17 starts vs. elite offenses scoring >=27 PPG
Systems Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+6 at BAL) 

* DALLAS’ Mike McCarthy is just 13-29-1 SU and 14-29 ATS vs. teams with a winning record since 2017
Systems Match: FADE DALLAS (+7 vs. PHI)

* DENVER is 12-13 SU but 20-5 ATS bouncing back after a game having scored 14 points or less since 2019
* DENVER’s Sean Payton is 15-7 SU and 17-4 ATS in his 22 games when coming off an outright road loss
Systems Match (PLAY): DENVER (+8 at KC) 

* DETROIT is 13-4 SU and 15-2 ATS when coming off a double-digit win since 2018
* DETROIT is on 16-9 SU and 20-5 ATS run vs. teams with a winning record
Systems Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-3.5 at HOU)

* HOUSTON is on 16-52 SU and 24-43 ATS slide vs. elite teams with a point differential of >=+4.5 PPG since 2010
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (+3.5 vs. DET)
* HOUSTON’s CJ Stroud is on 10-2 UNDER the total surge vs. teams with winning records
System Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-HOU (o/u at 49) 

* INDIANAPOLIS is 16-15 SU and 23-8 ATS vs. elite teams with point differentials of >=+4.5 PPG since 2015
System Match (PLAY): INDIANAPOLIS (+3.5 vs. BUF) 

* JACKSONVILLE is 8-47 SU and 13-41 ATS versus NFC foes since 2011
* JACKSONVILLE is on a horrific 4-37 SU and 9-32 ATS skid vs. teams with better records since 2011
Systems Match (FADE): JACKSONVILLE (+4 vs. MIN)

* JACKSONVILLE is on 14-2 UNDER the total surge when coming off a loss to NFC foe
* JACKSONVILLE’s Trevor Lawrence is on 8-1 UNDER the total streak, with his team coming off a loss to an NFC foe
* JACKSONVILLE’s Doug Pederson is 18-5 UNDER the total in November games since 2016
Systems Match (PLAY UNDER): MIN-JAX (o/u at 45)

* KANSAS CITY is 18-10 SU but 6-20 ATS when coming off a game of scoring 30+ points since 2020
Systems Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (-8 vs. DEN)
* KANSAS CITY’s Andy Reid is 31-11 Under the total as a home favorite of 7 points or more since 2011
* KANSAS CITY is 70-38 Under the total as a home favorite since 2010
Systems Match (PLAY UNDER): DEN-KC (o/u at 41.5)

* LA CHARGERS are 61-27 Under the total when coming off an outright win since 2013
* LA CHARGERS are on 22-6 Under the total surge in Sunday games
* LA CHARGERS are on 13-0 Under the total streak when playing on normal rest (7 days)
Systems Match (PLAY UNDER): TEN-LAC (o/u at 39)
* LA CHARGERS’ Jim Harbaugh owns a solid 28-7 SU and 25-8 ATS NFL mark as a favorite of -3 to -7 points since 2011
System Match (PLAY): LA CHARGERS (*if they fall into this line range, -7.5 currently)

* LA RAMS’ Sean McVay is 6-4 SU but 1-8 ATS when his team plays with extra rest since 2022
* LA RAMS’ Sean McVay is just 8-13 SU and 5-14 ATS in its last 21 November games
Systems Match (FADE): LA RAMS (-1 vs. MIA) 

* MIAMI’s Mike McDaniel is on 0-9 SU and 1-8 ATS skid as a single-digit underdog
System Match (FADE): MIAMI (+1 at LAR) 

* MINNESOTA is 28-17 SU and 30-13 ATS versus AFC opponents since 2014
* MINNESOTA boasts an impressive 75-55 SU and 84-46 ATS record when playing on normal rest (seven days) since 2011
* MINNESOTA’s Sam Darnold is 3-11 SU and 2-12 ATS in the last 14 starts vs. teams with losing records
Systems Match: 2 PLAYs, 1 FADE of MINNESOTA (-4 at JAX)
* MINNESOTA’s Sam Darnold is 22-8 Under the total when his team plays with normal rest (7 days) since 2019
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MIN-JAX (o/u at 45)

* NEW ORLEANS’ Derek Carr is 19-6 Over the total as a home dog of +3 to +7 points since 2014
* NEW ORLEANS’ Derek Carr is on 12-1 Over the total run vs. teams with a better record
* NEW ORLEANS’ Derek Carr is on 8-0 OVER the total streak as home underdog of +3 to +7 points
System Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-NO (o/u at 46) 

* NY GIANTS’ Brian Daboll boasts a decent 11-12 SU and 15-9 ATS record when coming off an outright loss since 2022
System Match (PLAY): NY GIANTS (-6.5 at CAR)

* NY JETS own ugly 11-44 SU and 17-36 ATS record as road underdogs since 2016
System Match (FADE): NY JETS (+1 at ARI)

* NY JETS’ Aaron Rodgers is 11-1 Under the total vs. teams with a better record since 2014
System Match (PLAY UNDER): NYJ-ARI (o/u at 46)

* PHILADELPHIA is 17-4 Over the total when coming off a home win since 2021
* PHILADELPHIA’s Jalen Hurts is 17-7 Under the total in his last 24 road games
Systems Match: 1 PLAY on OVER, 1 PLAY on UNDER in PHI-DAL (o/u at 42.5)
* PHILADELPHIA’s Nick Sirianni is 8-3 SU but 0-10 ATS vs. poor teams being outscored by 4.5 PPG or more since 2022
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-7 at DAL) 

* PITTSBURGH is 17-7 SU and 18-6 ATS vs. teams with better records since 2013
* PITTSBURGH’s Mike Tomlin is on 27-19 SU and 32-12 ATS run as a single-digit underdog
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (+2.5 at WAS)
* PITTSBURGH’s Russell Wilson is on 14-4 Over the total surge vs. teams with better records
* PITTSBURGH’s Russell Wilson is 8-0 Over the total in the last eight starts as non-conference road underdog
* PITTSBURGH’s Russell Wilson is 10-1 Under the total in his last 11 November starts
Systems Match: 2 PLAYs on OVER, 1 PLAY on UNDER in PIT-WAS (o/u at 45.5) 

* SAN FRANCISCO’s Kyle Shanahan is on 3-4 SU and 0-7 ATS skid when coming off a home win
* SAN FRANCISCO’s Brock Purdy is 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS in his last six starts following up a game in which his team scored 30+ points
* SAN FRANCISCO’s Brock Purdy is just 6-6 SU and 3-9 ATS in his last 12 vs. teams with lesser records
System Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (-5.5 at TB) 

* TAMPA BAY’s Todd Bowles is on an 0-9 SU and 0-7 ATS skid as a home underdog of +3 to +7 points
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-4 at NO)
* TAMPA BAY’s Todd Bowles is 12-4 Over the total vs. teams with a better record since 2017
System Match (PLAY OVER): TAMPA BAY (+5.5 vs. SF)

* TENNESSEE is on 6-20 SU and 6-19-1 ATS skid in Sunday games
System Match (FADE): TENNESSEE (+7.5 at LAC) 

* WASHINGTON’s Dan Quinn is 4-14 SU and 3-14 ATS vs. AFC since 2016
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (-2.5 vs. PIT)

Rookie/Retread Coaching NFL Betting Trend Systems

This NFL betting trend material is from the VSiN piece entitled Analyzing the New NFL Head Coaches for 2024 detailing systems that apply to rookie coaches Dave Canales (Carolina), Jerod Mayo (New England), Mike Macdonald (Seattle), Brian Callahan (Tennessee) as well as re-tread coaches Raheem Morris (Atlanta), Jim Harbaugh (LA Chargers), and Dan Quinn (Washington). 

Rookie Coach System

(Games this week: NYG-CAR(+6.5), NE(+6)-CHI, TEN(+7.5)-LAC)

Rookie head coaches have shown a tendency to start and finish their first season most successfully when it comes to covering point spreads. Since 2013, in games #1-#4 of their first seasons, they’ve combined to go 85-85-8 ATS, good for 50%. In games #5-#12, they’ve gone 155-173-11 ATS (47.3%). To close the season in games #13-#17, the record has been 91-82-2 ATS (52.6%).
System Matches: FADE – CAROLINA, NEW ENGLAND, TENNESSEE 

Retread Coach Systems

(Games this week: PIT-WAS(-2.5), ATL(-4)-NO, TEN-LAC(-7.5))

Like the rookie head coaches, retread head coaches have been far more proficient at covering point spreads on the road over the last decade. Here is the breakdown: Home games – 84-115-1 ATS (42.2%). Road/Neutral games – 101-104-1 ATS (49.3%).
System Match: FADE – ATLANTA

Retread head coaches have been brutal bets as favorites but respectable in the underdog role in their first seasons with new franchise. As favorites since 2014, they’ve gone 90-66 SU but just 55-90-11 ATS, for 37.9%! As dogs (or pick ’em), 81-185 SU and 130-129-7 ATS (50.2%).
Systems Matches: FADE – WASHINGTON, ATLANTA, LA CHARGERS

Retread head coaches have shown a tendency to start very slow at their new franchises and finish their first seasons more successfully when it comes to covering point spreads. Since 2014, in weeks #1-#10 of their first seasons, they’ve combined to go 98-138-8 ATS (41.5%), while in weeks #11 and later, they’ve gone 87-81-10 ATS (51.8%).
System Matches: FADE – WASHINGTON, ATLANTA, LA CHARGERS 

NFL Rookie Quarterback Systems

These NFL betting trend systems take into account rookie quarterback records in their first seasons. They include game logs of any rookie who started seven or more games in that first season. The starters this week include Caleb Williams (Chicago), Jayden Daniels (Washington), Drake Maye (New England), and Bo Nix (Denver), although others could join them down the road.

(Games this week: PIT-WAS(-2.5), DEN(+8)-KC, NE(+6)-CHI)

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #4 – Rookie quarterbacks have experienced major late season woes
For as much as rookie QBs have struggled early in recent years, over the long haul, or since 2008, the part of the season in which they have struggled worst is in Weeks 10-15, as they are just 96-144 SU and 101-129-10 ATS (43.9%) in that time span.
System Matches: FADE – WASHINGTON, DENVER, NEW ENGLAND, CHICAGO 

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Rookie quarterbacks have struggled on the road, particularly late in the season
The results of rookie quarterbacks on the road lately are startling. Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie starters have combined for a record of 114-110 ATS (50.9%) in home games but just 97-120-2 ATS (44.7%) in road/neutral games. In later season road games, week 10-EOY, they are just 32-94 SU and 52-72-2 ATS (41.9%).
System Matches: FADE – DENVER, NEW ENGLAND 

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #6 – Don’t fall for the big underdog point spreads with rookie quarterbacks
Since 2015, rookie starting quarterbacks facing underdog lines of 6.5-points or more have won just 18 games, going 18-115 SU and 50-79-4 ATS (38.8%).
System Match: FADE – DENVER

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #7 – Rookie quarterbacks have been solid bets in the home favorite role over the last four seasons
Since the start of the 2020 season, rookie starting quarterbacks have taken care of business in the home favorite role, going 35-8 SU and 32-10-1 ATS (76.2%).
System Matches: PLAY – WASHINGTON, CHICAGO

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #10 – By type of opponent, divisional and non-conference matchups have been tougher for rookie starting quarterbacks
Since 2015, rookie QBs are just 43-94 SU and 56-77-4 ATS (42.1%) versus divisional opponents.
System Match: FADE – DENVER

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #11 – Losses have tended to snowball for rookie QBs
In their last 144 starts with their teams coming off outright losses, rookie QBs have gone just 48-99 SU and 64-81-2 ATS (44.1%). This trend dates back to 2018.
System Matches: FADE – DENVER, CHICAGO, NEW ENGLAND 

NFL Veteran Quarterback leading new team systems

These systems take into account veteran quarterback records in their first season with a new team. They include game logs of 28 different veteran QBs since 2003 who have played at least eight years in the NFL and started extensively on a previous team. This week, there are four different QBs finding themselves in a new place: Aaron Rodgers (NY Jets), Russell Wilson (Pittsburgh), Joe Flacco (Indianapolis), and Kirk Cousins (Atlanta). 

(Games this week: BUF-IND(+3.5), PIT(+2.5)-WAS, ATL(-4)-NO, NYJ(+1)-ARI)

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Veteran quarterbacks thrive with their new teams at home
The results since 2005 of veteran quarterbacks playing with their new teams at home are quite impressive, as they have gone 120-70 SU and 101-78-11 ATS (56.4%).
System Match: PLAY – INDIANAPOLIS

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #6 – By type of opponent, non-divisional conference matchups have been best for veteran starting quarterbacks in their first season with new teams
Since 2005, veteran QBs in their first season with new teams have fared well against non-divisional conference opponents, going 82-65 SU but 82-63-2 ATS (56.6%).
System Match: PLAY – INDIANAPOLIS

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #7 –Veteran QBs have shown a tendency to lead their teams back well after losses
In their last 135 starts with their new teams coming off outright losses, veteran QBs have gone 76-70 SU and 80-63-3 ATS (55.9%). This trend dates back to 2016.
System Match: PLAY – INDIANAPOLIS

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #9 – Veteran quarterbacks have been atrocious in the road favorite role with new teams
Since the start of the 2004 season, veteran starting quarterbacks playing their first seasons with new teams have performed terribly in the road favorite role, 43-32 SU but 28-46-1 ATS (37.8%).
System Match: FADE – ATLANTA

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #10 – Veteran quarterbacks are consistent bets as sizeable underdogs with new teams
Dating back to 2006, veteran starting quarterbacks in their first seasons with new teams have gone 42-69 SU but 63-43-5 ATS (59.4%) when playing as underdogs of 3-points or more.
System Match: PLAY – INDIANAPOLIS

NFL Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NFL betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NFL games and detail the results of the follow-up game for these teams.

NO QUALIFYING EXTREME STATS SYSTEMS THIS WEEK 

The following trends and systems come from a log of all the Thursday night (TNF), Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night (MNF) games since the start of the 2019 season. Only Thursday night games were included in the TNF study, not the day games played on Thanksgiving. The Sunday night games only included those games played on Sunday night, not all of the games covered by the NBC SNF crew, which also included some Wednesday and Saturday contests. The games analyzed were only regular-season games.

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Since the home teams last won three straight ATS on TNF in September 2020, road teams have been on a roll, 35-37 SU and 41-29-2 ATS (58.6%) in the last 72.
System Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+6 at BAL)

There has been some interesting data regarding the first and second half of the season in terms of Thursday night games. In the first half of the season, or Weeks 1-8, home teams have gone 24-22 SU but 15-29-2 ATS (34.1%). Going back even further, since 2016, TNF home teams in Weeks 9 and later are 38-25 SU and 37-24-2 ATS (60.7%). There seems to be a fundamental edge to playing at home with less rest late in the season.
System Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-6 vs. CIN)

A long-running trend of Thursday night home-field advantage being crucial in divisional games has turned lately, with these hosts going 17-17 SU but 13-21 ATS (38.2%) since the start of the 2019 season. Prior to that, divisional hosts were on an amazing 17-2-1 ATS run.
System Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (-6 vs. CIN)

More on totals, there have been 30 TNF games since 2012 with a total of 50 or greater, they went Under at a 22-8 rate (73.3%).
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CIN-BAL (o/u at 53)

UNDER the total TNF Team Trends
Cincinnati 6-3-1 Under the total since 2014
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CIN-BAL (o/u at 53)

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Home underdogs have been competitive on Sunday night football, going 18-20 SU and 22-14-2 ATS (61.1%) dating back to 2017.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (+3.5 vs. DET)

 In SNF games pitting non-conference opponents (AFC vs. NFC), home teams are just 26-23 SU and 18-29-2 ATS (38.3%) in the last 49. Under the total is also 28-13 (68.3%) in the last 41.
System Match: FADE HOUSTON (+3.5 vs. DET), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 49)

SNF teams coming off of losses have proven not ready for the big time, as they have gone just 10-23 SU and ATS (30.3%) in their last 33 tries against teams off a win.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (+3.5 vs. DET)

Momentum has been big for hosts overall, as home teams on SNF coming off a loss in their last games are just 14-20 SU and 13-20-1 ATS (39.4%) in their last 34, but those coming off a win are on a current 22-5 SU and 17-10 ATS (63%) surge.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (+3.5 vs DET)

Strangely, the league’s highest-scoring teams have not fared well on SNF of late, as those scoring 30+ PPG are 11-9 SU but 4-16 ATS (20%) in their last 20 tries against teams not scoring that much.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-3.5 at HOU)

More on unusual stat angles, the best defensive teams in the league, or those allowing less than 19 PPG, have gone just 14-25 SU and 16-23 ATS (41%) against worse defenses on SNF since 2019.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-3.5 at HOU)

Bad SNF Team Trends
Detroit 3-5 SU and ATS in the last eight
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-3.5 at HOU)

Houston 1-5-2 ATS in the last eight
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (+3.5 vs. DET)

UNDER the total SNF Team Trends
Detroit 6-1-1 Under in the last eight
System Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-HOU (o/u at 49) 

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

In MNF games pitting non-conference opponents (AFC vs. NFC), home teams are 27-24 SU but 15-34-2 ATS (30.6%) in the last 51.
System Match (FADE): LA RAMS (-1 vs. MIA)

In concert with the theme of big underdogs faring well on MNF, teams scoring 17.5 PPG or less at the time have gone 10-14 SU and 15-9 ATS (62.5%) in their last 24 tries against teams scoring higher than that.
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+1 at LAR)

Won/lost records have mattered on MNF, as teams with the better record are 36-32 SU, but just 24-42-2 ATS (36.4%) in the last 68 MNF games not matching teams with identical records.
System Match (FADE): LA RAMS (-1 vs. MIA) 

If you’ve picked up from each of the team trends sections that certain teams are consistently doing well or poorly, or are going Over or Under regularly, you’re right. Here are some overall primetime game trends that you’re going to want to consider:

Good PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trends
Baltimore 26-11 SU and 24-12-1 ATS in the last 37
System Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-6 vs. CIN)

UNDER the total PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trends
LA Rams 13-5 Under surge
Miami 11-2 to the Under
Systems Match (PLAY UNDER): MIA-LAR (o/u at 50)

NFL Streaks Provide Some Advantages for Bettors

The following NFL betting trend systems were part of an article released in Week 8 of the 2023 NFL season focusing on winning and losing streaks. There were 15 different systems cited. These listed are the ones that have qualifying plays for this week’s action. 

NFL Streaks Betting System #2: NFL teams that have won their last three games outright, with the first being in upset fashion and then being favored in the latter games, are 87-18 SU and 69-36 ATS (65.7%) in the follow-up game when favored by 3 points or more.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY (-8 vs. DEN), DETROIT (-3.5 at HOU)

NFL Streaks Betting System #3: NFL teams that have lost the last five ATS while being outscored by 50 points or more in that stretch are 25-50 SU but 48-26-1 ATS (64.9%) since 2007.
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+3.5 vs. ATL) 

NFL Streaks Betting System #4: NFL teams that have won their last three games ATS with a point margin of +10 or less in that stretch have gone just 17-41 SU and 15-39-4 ATS (27.8%) in game #4 since 2003.
System Match (FADE): JACKSONVILLE (+4 vs. MIN) 

NFL Streaks Betting System #12: NFL teams that have lost at least their last three games outright have gone 56-36 SU BUT 34-54-4 ATS (38.6%) when favored by 3 points or more since 2013.
System Match (FADE): NY GIANTS (-5.5 vs. CAR)

The following NFL betting trends and systems are from the long-running article series detailing pre- and post-bye week performance in the NFL. These records are from only in-season bye weeks and do not include playoffs or preseason

Pre-bye week system #3
Play on home teams in their pre-bye week game when it comes Week 8 or later on the NFL annual schedule. (Record: 68-37-2 ATS since 2010, 64.8%, +27.3 Units, 26% ROI, Grade 70)
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ARIZONA (+1 vs. NYJ), TAMPA BAY (+5.5 vs. SF) 

Pre-bye week system #4
Play on home underdogs heading into their bye week. (Record: 32-22-3 ATS since 2015, 59.3%, +7.8 Units, 14.4% ROI, Grade 68)
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ARIZONA (+1 vs. NYJ), TAMPA BAY (+5.5 vs. SF)

* Please note that the systems above and all of the following trends only include bye week games from the regular season schedule, not playoffs.

Arizona Cardinals Pre-Bye Week Game: 11/10 vs. New York Jets
Arizona is on an 8-3 ATS surge in pre-bye week games
System Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (+1 vs. NYJ)

The Cardinals are on a 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS streak in pre-bye week games at home
System Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (+1 vs. NYJ) 

Carolina Panthers Pre-Bye Week Game: 11/10 vs. New York Giants (in Munich)
The Panthers are on a stretch of 8-3 ATS in pre-bye week games but lost LY
System Match (PLAY): CAROLINA (+5.5 vs. NYG)

Carolina has gone Over the total in eight of its last nine pre-bye week games, scoring 29.9 PPG and allowing 27.2 PPG
System Match (PLAY OVER): NYG-CAR (o/u at 40.5) 

New York Giants Pre-Bye Week Game: 11/10 vs. Carolina Panthers (in Munich)
The Giants are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven pre-bye week games as favorites
System Match (FADE): NY GIANTS (-5.5 vs. CAR)

The Giants are 7-1 Under the total in their last eight pre-bye week games
System Match (PLAY UNDER): NYG-CAR (o/u at 40.5) 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pre-Bye Week Game: 11/10 vs. San Francisco 49ers
Tampa Bay has won back-to-back pre-bye week games SU and ATS after brutal 2-10-1 ATS skid prior
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): TAMPA BAY (+5.5 vs. SF)

The Buccaneers are 1-7 SU and 1-6-1 ATS in the last eight pre-bye week home games
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (+5.5 vs. SF)

Post Bye-Week NFL Betting Trends and Systems

The following NFL betting trends and systems are from the long-running article series detailing pre- and post-bye week performance in the NFL. These records are from only in-season bye weeks and do not include playoffs or preseason

Post-bye week system #1:
Play on road favorites coming out of their bye week. (Record: 109-45 SU and 92-58-4 ATS since 1999, 61.3%, +28.2 Units, 18.8% ROI, Grade 65)
System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-5.5 at TB) 

Post-bye week system #6:
Play against road teams coming off their bye week and facing a non-divisional conference opponent. (Record: 22-10 SU and ATS since 2019, 68.8%, +11.0 Units, 34.4% ROI, Grade 62)
System Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (-5.5 at TB)

Post-bye week system #8:
Play Under the total with road teams coming off their bye week (Record: 34-13 since 2021, 72.3%, +19.7 Units, 41.9% ROI, Grade 70)
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): PIT-WAS (o/u at 45.5), SF-TB (o/u at 50.5) 

** Please note that the systems above and all of the following trends only include bye week games from the regular season schedule, not playoffs. 

Pittsburgh Steelers Post-Bye Week Game: 11/10 at Washington Commanders
The Steelers are on a seven-game post-bye week game winning streak, as well as a four-game ATS winning streak in such games
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (+2.5 at WAS)

Pittsburgh is 7-1 Under the total in its last eight post-bye week games vs. NFC opponents
System Match (PLAY UNDER): PIT-WAS (o/u at 45.5)

San Francisco 49ers Post-Bye Week Game: 11/10 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
San Francisco is on 6-1 Under the total run in post-bye week games
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SF-TB (o/u at 50.5)

The 49ers are 0-8 SU and ATS in their last eight post-bye week games versus non-divisional NFC foes
System Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (-5.5 at TB) 

Handicapping NFL Rematch Games

The following trends and betting systems come from same-season rematch data over the last 13 seasons

Best NFL rematch teams lately
Cincinnati: 14-13 SU and 19-7 ATS L26 rematch opportunities
System Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+6 at BAL)

New Orleans: 14-4 SU and ATS run
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+4 vs. ATL)

Worst NFL home rematch teams lately
Baltimore: 6-20 ATS in the last 26 rematch home games
System Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (-6 vs. CIN)

Best NFL road rematch teams lately
Cincinnati: Won nine of the last 12 road rematches ATS
System Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+6 at BAL)

Best NFL revenge teams lately
New Orleans: 13-1 ATS stretch in revenge games
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+4 vs. ATL)

Noteworthy NFL head-to-head second-time (and third) around trends
New Orleans: 8-1 SU and ATS run vs. Atlanta
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+4 vs. ATL)

This Week’s NFL Strength Ratings

The following NFL betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis). 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CAROLINA +6.5 (+2.2)
2. ARIZONA +1 (+2.0)
3. TAMPA BAY +5.5 (+1.1)
4. NEW ORLEANS +4 (+0.4)
5. JACKSONVILLE +4 (+0.1) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LA CHARGERS -7.5 (+3.2)
2. LA RAMS -1 (+2.4)
3. DETROIT -3.5 (+1.7)
4. CHICAGO -6 (+1.5)
5. BUFFALO -3.5 (+1.1) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ARIZONA +1 (+3.7)
2. TAMPA BAY +5.5 (+2.6)
3(tie). CAROLINA +6.5 (+1.0)
PITTSBURGH +3 (+1.0)
5. DENVER +8 (+0.7) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MINNESOTA -4 (+2.0)
2. PHILADELPHIA -7 (+1.8)
3. LA CHARGERS -7.5 (+1.1)
4. BALTIMORE -6 (+1.0)
5. CHICAGO -6 (+0.4) 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NYG-CAR OVER 40.5 (+2.3)
2. ATL-NO OVER 46 (+1.7)
3. MIN-JAX OVER 45 (+1.3)
4. SF-TB OVER 50.5 (+0.5)
5. NE-CHI OVER 38.5 (+0.3) 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches:
1. MIA-LAR UNDER 50 (-2.7)
2. BUF-IND UNDER 48.5 (-1.5)
3(tie). PHI-DAL UNDER 43 (-1.2)
DET-HOU UNDER 49 (-1.2)
5. CIN-BAL UNDER 53.5 (-1.0) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW ORLEANS +4 (+3.9)
2. DALLAS +7 (+3.1)
3. TENNESSEE +7.5 (+2.4)
4. HOUSTON +3.5 (+2.1)
5. TAMPA BAY +5.5 (+1.9) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHICAGO -6 (+3.6)
2. NY JETS -1 (+2.5)
3. MINNESOTA -4 (+1.7)
4. NY GIANTS -6.5 (+0.8)
5. LA RAMS -1 (+0.3) 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIN-JAX OVER 45 (+4.6)
2. ATL-NO OVER 46 (+2.3)
3. NE-CHI OVER 38.5 (+2.0)
4. PIT-WAS OVER 45.5 (+1.5)
5. NYG-CAR OVER 40.5 (+1.2) 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIA-LAR UNDER 50 (-3.6)
2. BUF-IND UNDER 48.5 (-3.1)
3. PHI-DAL UNDER 43 (-2.6)
4. NYJ-ARI UNDER 46 (-1.4)
5. DET-HOU UNDER 49 (-1.0)

These are the top head-to-head series NFL betting trends between teams from recent years’ action:

(109) CINCINNATI at (110) BALTIMORE
* Underdogs are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 of CIN-BAL series at Baltimore
System Match: PLAY CINCINNATI ATS 

(269) ATLANTA at (270) NEW ORLEANS
* Under the total is 8-3 in last 11 of the ATL-NO series at New Orleans
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total 

(263) BUFFALO at (264) INDIANAPOLIS
* INDIANAPOLIS in on a 5-1 ATS run hosting Buffalo
System Match: PLAY INDIANAPOLIS ATS 

(271) DENVER at (272) KANSAS CITY
* DENVER is on a 4-1 ATS run vs. Kansas City
System Match: PLAY DENVER ATS

(283) DETROIT at (284) HOUSTON
* Over the total is 4-1 in the last five of the DET-HOU series
System Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(265) MINNESOTA at (266) JACKSONVILLE
* Over the total is 3-0-1 in the last four of the MIN-JAC series
System Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(275) NEW ENGLAND at (276) CHICAGO
* Over the total is 6-1 in the last seven of the NE-CHI series
System Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(261) NY GIANTS vs. (262) CAROLINA
* Underdogs have won the last six ATS in the NYG-CAR series
System Match: PLAY CAROLINA ATS 

(281) NY JETS at (282) ARIZONA
* Under the total is 5-1 in the last six of the NYJ-ARI series
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total 

(279) PHILADELPHIA at (280) DALLAS
* DALLAS is on a six-game SU and ATS win streak hosting Philadelphia
System Match: PLAY DALLAS ATS

(267) PITTSBURGH at (268) WASHINGTON
* Under the total is 6-1 in the last seven of the PIT-WAS series
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(273) SAN FRANCISCO at (274) TAMPA BAY
* Road teams are on 4-2 ATS run in the SF-TB series
System Match: PLAY SAN FRANCISCO ATS 

(277) TENNESSEE at (278) LA CHARGERS
* Home teams are on a 6-0-1 ATS run in the LAC-TEN series
System Match: PLAY LA CHARGERS ATS

(285) MIAMI at (286) LA RAMS
* Underdogs have won the last five ATS in the MIA-LAR series
System Match: PLAY MIAMI ATS

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