The following NFL betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NFL games of Week 11. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFL board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NFL betting trends and systems for this week’s NFL games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* NFL teams that lose while allowing fewer than 12 points have also fared well in their follow-up game, going 19-9 SU and 22-6 ATS (78.6%) since 2015.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): GREEN BAY (-7 at NYG), LAS VEGAS (+3.5 vs DAL) 

Pre-bye week system #2: Play Under the total on any team heading into their bye week when facing a divisional opponent, assuming the opponent is not in the same situation. (Record: 39-16-2 since ‘13, 70.9%, +21.4 Units, 38.9% ROI, Grade 70)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): KC-DEN (o/u at 43.5) 

* NEW ENGLAND is 32-6 SU and 29-9 ATS when riding a three-game or more outright winning streak since 2016
Trends Match (PLAY): NEW ENGLAND (-12.5 vs NYJ)

NFL Streaks Betting System #10: NFL teams that have lost their last four games ATS are 26-26 SU but 32-18-2 ATS (64%) in their last 52 games versus non-conference foes.
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+2.5 vs MIA) 

* Since the start of the 2020 season, rookie starting quarterbacks have taken care of business in the home favorite role, going 42-12 SU and 39-14-1 ATS (73.6%).
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-3 vs CHI) 

* Dating back to 2006, veteran starting quarterbacks in their first seasons with new teams have gone 37-35 SU and 47-25 ATS (65.3%) when playing as road underdogs of +5.5-points or fewer.
System Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+5.5 at PIT) 

* Carolina is 3-12 ATS in their last 15 rematches after beatthe ing opponent in the initial outing
Trend Match (FADE): CAROLINA (+3.5 at ATL) 

* The league’s highest scoring teams have not fared well on Sunday Night Football of late, as those scoring 30+ PPG are 14-11 SU but 6-19 ATS (24%) in their last 25 tries against teams not scoring that much.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (+2.5 at PHI) 

#1 TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen Effective Strength Ratings: BAL-CLE OVER 38.5 (projections have total at 44.3) 

These are some of the top situational NFL betting trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action: 

(311) NY JETS (2-7) at (312) NEW ENGLAND (8-2)
* NY JETS own ugly 12-48 SU and 20-38 ATS record as road underdogs since 2016
* NY JETS are 8-26 SU and 10-22 ATS when playing on short rest (<7 days) since 2012
* NY JETS are 12-27 ATS (30.8%) when coming off a SU win since 2017
* NY JETS are 20-36 ATS (35.7%) vs. divisional opponents since 2016
* NEW ENGLAND is 32-6 SU and 29-9 ATS when riding a 3-game or more outright winning streak since 2016
Trends Match (PLAY): NEW ENGLAND (-12.5 vs NYJ) 

(451) WASHINGTON (3-7) at (452) MIAMI (3-7)
* WASHINGTON is 21-38 ATS (35.6%) when coming off SU loss since 2019
* WASHINGTON’s Dan Quinn is 7-16 SU and 6-16 ATS vs. the AFC since 2016
* WASHINGTON’s Dan Quinn is 12-4 SU and 11-5 ATS vs. teams with a losing record since 2019
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 2 FADES of WASHINGTON (+2.5 at MIA)

* MIAMI is 30-19 ATS (61.2%) vs. non-conference foes since 2014
* MIAMI’s Mike McDaniel is 18-10 SU and ATS vs. teams with a losing record since 2022
* MIAMI’s Tua Tagovailoa is on a 13-7 SU and ATS surge with his team coming off a home win
* MIAMI’s Tua Tagovailoa is 11-4 SU and 10-4-1 ATS vs. teams with poor point differentials of <=-4.5 PPG since 2022
Trends Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-2.5 vs WAS) 

(453) GREEN BAY (5-3) at (454) NY GIANTS (2-8)
* GREEN BAY is 27-12 Over the total as a road favorite since 2015
* NY GIANTS are 26-8 Under the total as home underdogs since 2020
* NY GIANTS are 60-33 Under the total (64.5%) since 2020
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 2 PLAYS UNDER in GB-NYG (o/u at 43.5)

* GREEN BAY is 23-18 ATS (56.1%) when coming off a SU loss since 2018
* GREEN BAY’s Matt Lafleur is 22-15-1 SU but 14-24 ATS as a single-digit favorite since 2021
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of GREEN BAY (-7 at NYG)

(455) TAMPA BAY (6-3) at (456) BUFFALO (6-3)
* TAMPA BAY is 31-35 ATS (47%) when coming off a SU loss since 2016
* TAMPA BAY’s Baker Mayfield is 11-18 SU but 19-10 ATS as a road underdog since 2020
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of TAMPA BAY (+5.5 at BUF)

* TAMPA BAY is on 27-10 Over the total surge as a single-digit road underdog
* BUFFALO’s Sean McDermott is 28-15 Under the total when coming off an outright loss since 2017
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in TB-BUF (o/u at 48.5) 

(457) CINCINNATI (3-6) at (458) PITTSBURGH (5-4)
* CINCINNATI is 27-19 ATS (58.7%) as an underdog since 2020
* CINCINNATI is 57-67 SU but 74-47 ATS on the road dating back to 2011
Trends Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+5.5 at PIT)

* PITTSBURGH is 25-33 ATS (43.1%) as a favorite since 2018
* PITTSBURGH’s Aaron Rodgers is on a 9-1 SU and ATS run as a divisional home favorite
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of PITTSBURGH (-5.5 vs CIN)

* CINCINNATI’s Joe Flacco is 18-9 Under the total in starts versus divisional foes since 2016
* PITTSBURGH is 106-74 Under the total (58.9%) since 2015
* PITTSBURGH is 36-13 Under the total vs. poor teams with point differentials <=-4.5 PPG since 2013
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): CIN-PIT (o/u at 48.5) 

(459) HOUSTON (4-5) at (460) TENNESSEE (1-8)
* TENNESSEE is 21-15 SU and 21-14 ATS when coming off a home loss since 2015
* TENNESSEE is on an 8-36 SU and 10-33-1 ATS skid in Sunday games
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of TENNESSEE (+6.5 vs HOU)

(461) CHICAGO (6-3) at (462) MINNESOTA (4-5)
* CHICAGO is 31-48 ATS (39.2%) in road/neutral games since 2016
* CHICAGO is 31-45-1 ATS (40.8%) as an underdog since 2019
* CHICAGO is 9-26 SU and 11-24 ATS versus divisional opponents since 2019
Trends Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+3 at MIN)

* MINNESOTA boasts an impressive 83-59 SU and 89-52-1 ATS record when playing on normal rest (7 days) since 2011
* MINNESOTA is 22-12 SU but only 11-23 ATS in its last 34 games as a home favorite
* MINNESOTA is 34-26 ATS (56.7%) when coming off a SU loss since 2014
* MINNESOTA is 19-27 ATS (41.3%) at home since 2020
Trends Match: 2 PLAYS, 2 FADES of MINNESOTA (-3 vs CHI)

* MINNESOTA is 64-48 Over the total (57.1%) since 2019
* MINNESOTA’s Kevin O’Connell is 18-7 Over the total vs. teams with a winning record since 2022
Trends Match (PLAY OVER): CHI-MIN (o/u at 48.5) 

(463) CAROLINA (5-5) at (464) ATLANTA (3-6)
* CAROLINA is 9-19 SU and 8-20 ATS vs. poor teams with winning percentages <=33% since 2017
Trend Match (FADE): CAROLINA (+3.5 at ATL)

* ATLANTA is 59-49 SU but 39-69 ATS as a single-digit favorite since 2012
* ATLANTA is on a 12-23 SU and 10-25 ATS skid on normal rest (7 days)
* ATLANTA’s Raheem Morris is on a 14-18 SU and 12-20 ATS slide in home games
Trends Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-3.5 vs CAR) 

(465) LA CHARGERS (7-3) at (466) JACKSONVILLE (5-4)
* LA CHARGERS are 66-35 Under the total when coming off an outright win since 2013
* LA CHARGERS are on 28-13 Under the total surge in Sunday games
* LA CHARGERS are on 17-5 Under the total streak when playing on normal rest (7 days)
* JACKSONVILLE is 43-35 Under the total (55.1%) since 2021
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): LAC-JAX (o/u at 43.5)

* LA CHARGERS’ Jim Harbaugh owns a solid 34-11 SU and 30-13 ATS NFL mark as a favorite of -3 to -7 points since 2011
* JACKSONVILLE is on a horrific 6-41 SU and 14-33 ATS skid vs. teams with better records since 2011
* JACKSONVILLE is 32-44 ATS (42.1%) when coming off a SU loss since 2018
Trends Match (PLAY): LA CHARGERS (-3 at JAX) 

(467) SEATTLE (7-2) at (468) LA RAMS (7-2)
* LA RAMS are 56-44 Under the total (56%) since 2020
* SEATTLE’s Sam Darnold is 27-14 Under the total when his team plays with normal rest (7 days) since 2019
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): SEA-LAR (o/u at 48.5)

* SEATTLE is 45-53-1 ATS (45.9%) when coming off a SU win since 2015
* SEATTLE is 38-28 ATS (57.6%) as an underdog since 2016
* SEATTLE’s Sam Darnold is on a 9-3 SU and ATS surge as an underdog
Trends Match: 2 PLAYS, 1 FADE of SEATTLE (+3 at LAR)

* LA RAMS Sean McVay is just 11-15 SU and 8-16 ATS in its last 26 November games
* LA RAMS’ Matthew Stafford is 36-65 SU and 38-61 ATS vs. teams with winning records since 2011
Trends Match (FADE): LA RAMS (-3 vs SEA) 

(469) SAN FRANCISCO (6-4) at (470) ARIZONA (3-6)
* SAN FRANCISCO’s Kyle Shanahan is 47-31 Over the total when his team is on normal rest (7 days) since 2017
* SAN FRANCISCO’s Brock Purdy is on 8-5 Over the total surge vs. divisional opponents
Trends Match (PLAY OVER): SF-ARI (o/u at 48.5)

* SAN FRANCISCO’s Brock Purdy is just 8-8 SU and 4-12 ATS in the last 16 vs. teams with lesser records
Trend Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (-3 at ARI)

* ARIZONA is 28-33 ATS (45.9%) at home since 2018
* ARIZONA is 13-21 ATS (38.2%) vs. divisional opponents since 2020
* ARIZONA is 34-20 ATS (63%) as an underdog since 2021
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 2 FADES of ARIZONA (+3 vs SF) 

(471) BALTIMORE (4-5) at (472) CLEVELAND (2-7)
* BALTIMORE’s Lamar Jackson is 12-5 SU but 6-11 ATS in the last 17 games vs. poor teams with a winning percentage <=33%
* BALTIMORE is 46-25 ATS (64.8%) in road/neutral games since 2017
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of BALTIMORE (-7.5 at CLE)

* CLEVELAND is 35-45 ATS (43.8%) at home since 2015
* CLEVELAND is 22-41 ATS (34.9%) vs. divisional opponents since 2015
Trends Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+7.5 vs BAL)

* CLEVELAND’s Kevin Stefanski is 17-10 Under the total vs. teams with a losing record since 2020
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BAL-CLE (o/u at 39.5)

(473) KANSAS CITY (5-4) at (474) DENVER (8-2)
* KANSAS CITY is 11-19-1 ATS (36.7%) vs. divisional opponents since 2020
* KANSAS CITY is 57-41-1 ATS (58.2%) in road/neutral games since 2014
* KANSAS CITY’s Patrick Mahomes boasts a 31-12 SU and 26-15 ATS record vs. teams with elite point differentials of >=+4.5 since 2019
Trends Match: 2 PLAYS, 1 FADE of KANSAS CITY (-3.5 at DEN)

* DENVER is 14-14 SU but 22-6 ATS bouncing back after a game having scored 14 points or less since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY): DENVER (+3.5 vs KC)

* DENVER is 105-70 Under the total (60%) since 2015
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): KC-DEN (o/u at 43.5)

(475) DETROIT (6-3) at (476) PHILADELPHIA (7-2)
* DETROIT is 19-7 SU and ATS when coming off a double-digit win since 2018
* DETROIT is on a 20-11 SU and 22-8-1 ATS run vs. teams with a winning record
* DETROIT’s Jared Goff is 11-12 SU and 18-5 ATS as a single-digit underdog since 2021
Trends Match (PLAY): DETROIT (+2.5 at PHI)

* PHILADELPHIA’s Nick Sirianni boasts a 25-3 SU and 19-8 ATS record as a single-digit home favorite since 2021
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-2.5 vs DET) 

(477) DALLAS (3-5) at (478) LAS VEGAS (2-7)
* DALLAS is 27-11 SU and 24-14 ATS vs. teams with a losing record since 2020
* DALLAS is 23-17 ATS (57.5%) in road/neutral games since 2021
* DALLAS’ Dak Prescott is 18-7 SU and 17-8 ATS when his team is playing with extra rest (>7 days) since 2016
Trends Match (PLAY): DALLAS (-3.5 at LVR)

* LAS VEGAS is 7-7 SU and 11-3 ATS when coming off a game allowing <=14 points since 2020
* LAS VEGAS is 38-51 ATS (42.7%) when coming off a SU loss since 2015
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of LAS VEGAS (+3.5 vs DAL) 

NFL Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NFL games and detail the results of the follow-up game for these teams. 

CRAZY LOW SCORING GAMES COMMAND ATTENTION
NFL teams that have won a game despite scoring less than 12 points in the victory have carried the momentum through the next game with a 20-13 SU and 21-11-1 ATS (65.6%) record.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DENVER (+3.5 vs KC), PHILADELPHIA (-2.5 vs DET) 

Alternatively to above, NFL teams that lose while allowing fewer than 12 points have also fared well in their follow-up game, going 19-9 SU and 22-6 ATS (78.6%) since 2015.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): GREEN BAY (-7 at NYG), LAS VEGAS (+3.5 vs DAL)

DON’T DISMISS TEAMS OFF DREADFUL OFFENSIVE OUTINGS
NFL teams that lost, scored 7 points or fewer, and had 10 or fewer first downs in a game have performed admirably as underdogs in the next contest, 22-38 SU but 39-21 ATS (65%) over the last decade-plus.
System Match (PLAY): LAS VEGAS (+3.5 vs DAL)

The following trends and systems come from a log of all the Thursday night (TNF), Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night (MNF) games since the start of the 2019 season. Only Thursday night games were included in the TNF study, not the day games played on Thanksgiving. The Sunday night games only included those games played on Sunday Night, not all of the games covered by the NBC SNF crew, which also included some Wednesday and Saturday contests. The games analyzed were only regular season games. 

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

There has been some interesting data regarding the first and second halves of the season in terms of Thursday night games. In the first half of the season, or Weeks 1-8, home teams have gone 30-24 SU but 19-33-2 ATS (36.5%) in the last 54. Going back even further, since 2016, TNF home teams in Weeks 9 and later are 45-28 SU and 42-28-3 ATS (60%). There seems to be a fundamental edge to playing at home with less rest late in the season.
System Match (PLAY): NEW ENGLAND (-12.5 vs NYJ)

·  NFL Home Favorites of 7 points or more are on a 33-3 SU and 21-13-2 ATS (61.8%) run on Thursday games since the start of the 2014 season.
System Match (PLAY): NEW ENGLAND (-12.5 vs NYJ)

Bad TNF Team Trend
NY Jets 2-6 SU and ATS in the last eight, allowed 26.9 PPG
Trend Match (FADE): NY JETS (+12.5 at NE)

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Home favorites of less than a TD on SNF have historically been solid, going 60-40-2 ATS (60%) in their last 102.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-2.5 vs DET)

Momentum has been big for hosts overall, as home teams on SNF coming off a loss in their last games are just 16-24-1 SU and 17-23-1 ATS (42.5%) in their last 41, but those coming off a win are on a current 29-10 SU and 23-16 ATS (59%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-2.5 vs DET)

Strangely, the league’s highest scoring teams have not fared well on SNF of late, as those scoring 30+ PPG are 14-11 SU but 6-19 ATS (24%) in their last 25 tries against teams not scoring that much.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (+2.5 at PHI)

Good SNF Team Trend
Philadelphia 6-2 SU and 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-2.5 vs DET) 

Bad SNF Team Trend
Detroit 5-6 SU and 4-7 ATS in the last 11
Trend Match (FADE): DETROIT (+2.5 at PHI) 

Under the total SNF Team Trend
Detroit 9-1-1 Under in the last 11
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-PHI (o/u at 46.5) 

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

NFL home underdogs on Monday Night are on a run of 16-19 SU and 19-15-1 ATS (55.9%) dating back to September 2021. The last 33 of these games have seen Under the total go 23-8-2 (74.2%) as well, games producing just 39.7 PPG.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): LAS VEGAS (+3.5 vs DAL)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): DAL-LVR (o/u at 50.5)

In MNF games pitting non-conference opponents (AFC vs. NFC), home teams are 30-30 SU but 19-39-2 ATS (32.8%) in the last 60.
System Match (FADE): LAS VEGAS (+3.5 vs DAL)

In concert with the theme of big underdogs faring well on MNF, teams scoring 17.5 PPG or less at the time have gone 11-16 SU and 16-11 ATS (59.3%) in their last 27 tries against teams scoring higher than that.
System Match (PLAY): LAS VEGAS (+3.5 vs DAL)

Won/lost records have mattered on MNF, as teams with the better record are 46-42 SU but just 33-53-2 ATS (38.4%) in the last 88 MNF games not matching teams with identical records.
System Match (FADE): DALLAS (-3.5 at LVR)

Good MNF Team Trends
Dallas 7-5 SU and ATS in the last 12
Trend Match (PLAY): DALLAS (-3.5 at LVR)

If you’ve picked up from each of the team trends sections that certain teams are consistently doing well or poorly, or are going Over or Under regularly, you’re right. Here are some overall primetime game trends that you’re going to want to consider: 

Good PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trend
Dallas 16-9 ATS in the last 25
Trend Match (PLAY): DALLAS (-3.5 at LVR) 

Bad PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trend
NY Jets 3-16 SU while going 5-14 ATS
Trend Match (FADE): NY JETS (+12.5 at NE) 

NFL Streaks Provide Some Advantages for Bettors

The following betting systems focus on winning and losing streaks. Below are the ones that have qualifying plays for this week’s action. 

NFL Streaks Betting System #3: NFL teams that have lost their last five games ATS while being outscored by 50 points or more in that stretch are 28-54 SU but 51-30-1 ATS (63%) since 2007.
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+2.5 vs MIA) 

NFL Streaks Betting System #8: NFL teams that have lost their last five games ATS but were playing against a team that they have at least an equal won-lost record with have gone 23-15 SU and ATS (60.5%) in their last 38 tries.
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+2.5 vs MIA)

NFL Streaks Betting System #10: NFL teams that have lost their last four games ATS are 26-26 SU but 32-18-2 ATS (64%) in their last 52 games versus non-conference foes.
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+2.5 vs MIA) 

NFL Streaks Betting System #12: NFL teams that have lost at least their last three games outright have gone 64-38 SU BUT 42-56-4 ATS (42.9%) when favored by 3 points or more since 2013.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-3.5 vs CAR) 

NFL Streaks Betting System #15: NFL teams playing at home on Thursdays after winning at least their last 4 games outright have kept the momentum going with a 17-1 SU and 12-5-1 ATS (70.6%) record in their last 18 tries.
System Match (PLAY): NEW ENGLAND (-12.5 vs NYJ) 

The following systems and trends are from the long-running article series detailing pre-bye week performance in the NFL. These records are from only in-season bye weeks and do not include playoffs or preseason. 

Pre-bye week system #1:
Play on any team heading into their bye week when facing a divisional opponent, assuming the opponent is not in the same situation. (Record: 57-25-1 ATS since 2013, 69.5%, +29.5 Units, 36% ROI, Grade 70)
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (+3.5 vs KC) 

Pre-bye week system #2:
Play Under the total on any team heading into their bye week when facing a divisional opponent, assuming the opponent is not in the same situation. (Record: 39-16-2 since ‘13, 70.9%, +21.4 Units, 38.9% ROI, Grade 70)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): KC-DEN (o/u at 43.5) 

Pre-bye week system #4
Play on home teams in their pre-bye week game when it comes Week 8 or later on the NFL annual schedule. (Record: 76-41-2 ATS since 2010, 65%, +30.9 Units, 26.4% ROI, Grade 68)
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (+3.5 vs KC) 

Pre-bye week system #5
Play on home underdogs heading into their bye week. (Record: 37-24-3 ATS since 2015, 60.7%, +10.6 Units, 17.4% ROI, Grade 62)
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (+3.5 vs KC) 

Pre-bye week system #8
Play on any team heading into their bye week when favored on the road/neutral vs. a non-conference foe (Record: 31-8-1 SU and 26-13-1 ATS since ’09, 66.7%, +11.7 Units, 30% ROI, Grade 67)
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-2.5 vs WAS) 

Pre-bye week system #10
Play ON any teams heading into their bye week and playing as favorites in an overseas neutral field contest (Record: 18-2-1 SU and 15-6 ATS since ’08, 71.4%, +8.4 Units, 40% ROI, Grade 65)
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-2.5 vs WAS) 

* Please note that the systems above and all of the following trends only include bye week games from the regular season schedule, not playoffs. 

Denver Broncos Pre-Bye Week Game – 11/16 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
– Denver is 10-3 SU and 9-3-1 ATS in its L13 pre-bye week games overall
Trend Match (PLAY): DENVER

Outright winners are on an 18-game ATS winning streak in Denver pre-bye week home games 

Los Angeles Chargers Pre-Bye Week Game – 11/16 at Jacksonville Jaguars
– The Chargers are just 2-9 SU and 1-8-2 ATS in their last 11 pre-bye week games
Trend Match (FADE): LA CHARGERS (-3 at JAX)

– The Chargers are 9-3 Under the total in their last 12 pre-bye week games
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LAC-JAX (o/u at 43.5) 

Miami Dolphins Pre-Bye Week Game – 11/16 vs. Washington Commanders (Madrid)
– Miami is 6-1 Under the total in its last seven pre-bye week games
– Miami is on 4-0 Under the total streak in pre-bye week games vs. AFC foes, total point production 31.5 PPG
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): WAS-MIA (o/u at 47.5)

Washington Commanders Pre-Bye Week Game – 11/16 vs. Miami Dolphins (Madrid)
· Dating back to 1993, Washington is just 11-23-1 ATS in pre-bye week games overall, including 5-13-1 ATS in road/neutral games
· Washington has gone just 2-7-1 SU and 3-7 ATS in its last 10 pre-bye week games vs. AFC opponents
Trends Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+2.5 at MIA) 

Post-Bye Week Systems and Trends

The following systems and trends are from the long-running article series detailing pre- and post-bye week performance in the NFL. These records are from only in-season bye weeks and do not include playoffs or preseason 

Post-bye week system #1:
Play on road favorites coming out of their bye week. (Record: 117-48 SU and 96-65-4 ATS since 1999, 59.6%, +24.5 Units, 15.2% ROI, Grade 63)
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY (-3.5 at DEN), DALLAS (-3.5 at LVR)

Post-bye week road favorite subsystems:
–  vs. non-conference opponents. (Record: 35-16-3 ATS since 2000, 68.6%, +17.4 Units, 34.1% ROI, Grade 65)
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (-3.5 at LVR)

–  vs. divisional opponents. (Record: 32-18 ATS since 2002, 64%, +12.2 Units, 24.4% ROI, Grade 65)
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-3.5 at DEN) 

Post-bye week system #3:
Play against home underdogs coming out of their bye week. (Record: 47-19 SU and 37-27-2 ATS since 1999, 58.7%, +7.3 Units, 11.4% ROI, Grade 59)
System Match (FADE): TENNESSEE (+6.5 vs HOU) 

Post-bye week system #4:
Play Over the total in games involving posted totals of less than 40 with teams coming out of their bye week. (Record: 29-19-2 since 2010, 60.4%, +8.1 Units, 16.9% ROI, Grade 60)
System Match (PLAY OVER): HOU-TEN (o/u at 37.5) 

Post-bye week system #7:
Play Under the total with road teams coming off their bye week (Record: 42-24-1 since 2021, 63.6%, +15.6 Units, 23.6% ROI, Grade 65)
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CIN-PIT (o/u at 49.5), KC-DEN (o/u at 43.5), DAL-LVR (o/u at 50.5) 

Post-bye week system #9:
Play Under the total in games where a team is coming out of its bye week after losing in upset fashion before the bye. (Record: 33-17-1 Under since 1992, 66%, +14.4 Units, 28.8% ROI, Grade 62)
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): KC-DEN (o/u at 43.5), DAL-LVR (o/u at 50.5) 

Post-bye week system #10:
Play Under the total in games where a team is coming out of its bye week after yielding 35+ points before the bye. (Record: 23-14-1 UNDER since ’14, 62.2%, +7.6 Units, 20.5% ROI, Grade 62)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CIN-PIT (o/u at 49.5) 

** Please note that the systems above and all of the following trends only include bye week games from the regular season schedule, not playoffs. 

Cincinnati Bengals Post-Bye Week Game: 11/16 at Pittsburgh Steelers
·  The Bengals are on a 3-0 SU and ATS surge in post-bye week road games, including a 37-30 win at Pittsburgh in 2022
Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+5.5 at PIT)

· Cincinnati has gone 5-0 Over the total in its last five post-bye week divisional games, allowing 37.6 PPG
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CIN-PIT (o/u at 49.5) 

Dallas Cowboys Post-Bye Week Game: MON 11/17 at Las Vegas Raiders
· Dallas is on a 13-7 SU and 14-6 ATS run in post-bye week games
Trend Match (PLAY): DALLAS (-3.5 at LVR)

· The Cowboys are 17-3 Over the total in post-bye week games since ’05
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DAL-LVR (o/u at 50.5) 

Kansas City Chiefs Post-Bye Week Game: 11/16 at Denver Broncos
· Kansas City is 11-3 SU and 9-5 ATS in its last 15 post-bye week games versus divisional foes
Trend Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-3.5 at DEN)

· The Chiefs are 9-3-1 Under the total in their last 12 post-bye week road games
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): KC-DEN (o/u at 43.5) 

Tennessee Titans Post-Bye Week Game: 11/16 vs. Houston Texans
· Prior to last year’s 20-17 home loss to the Colts, the Titans had won eight straight post-bye week games while going 7-0-1 ATS
· Tennessee has won its last three games SU and ATS as a post-bye week underdog, scoring 32.7 PPG
Trends Match (PLAY): TENNESSEE (+6.5 vs HOU)

Handicapping NFL Rematch Games

The following trends and betting systems come from same season rematch data over the last 14 seasons 

Best NFL rematch teams lately
–  Cincinnati: 16-14 SU and 21-8 ATS last 29 rematch opportunities
Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+5.5 at PIT)

– San Francisco: 14-9 SU and ATS last 23
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-3 at ARI)

–  Tennessee: 16-12 SU and 15-13 ATS surge
Trend Match (SLIGHT PLAY): TENNESSEE (+6.5 vs HOU)

Worst NFL rematch teams lately
–   Arizona: 4-18 SU and 7-15 ATS skid last 22
Trend Match (FADE): ARIZONA (+3 vs SF)

–  Carolina: 15-22 SU and 13-24 ATS in rematches since 2014
Trend Match (FADE): CAROLINA (+3.5 at ATL)

–  Chicago: 4-15 ATS last 19
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+3 at MIN)

–  Cleveland: lengthy 9-30-1 ATS rematch skid in the last 40
Trend Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+7.5 vs BAL)

–   Minnesota current 7-14 SU and 6-15 ATS slide
Trend Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-3 vs CHI)

Worst NFL home rematch teams lately
–  Arizona: brutal 4-13 SU and 3-14 ATS home stretch
Trend Match (FADE): ARIZONA (+3 vs SF)

–  Cleveland: Lost 12 of last 14 home rematch games ATS! (6-8 SU)
Trend Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+7.5 vs BAL)

Best NFL road rematch teams lately
–   Baltimore: 15-4 ATS last 19 rematch road games
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-7.5 at CLE)

–  Cincinnati: Won ten of the last 14 road rematches ATS
Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+5.5 at PIT)

–  San Francisco: 8-3 SU and 9-2 ATS road last 11
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-3 at ARI)

Worst NFL road rematch teams lately
–  Chicago: 3-10 ATS last 13 roadies
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+3 at MIN)

–  Houston: 7-9 SU and 6-10 ATS last 16 road rematches
Trend Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-6.5 at TEN)

Worst NFL revenge teams lately
– Chicago: 6-21 SU and 8-18-1 ATS in last 27 revenge tries
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+3 at MIN)

– Cleveland: 5-11 SU and 4-11-1 ATS last 16 revenge games
Trend Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+7.5 vs BAL)

Best NFL teams in rematches after winning the last game lately
– Cincinnati: 11-3 SU and 10-4 ATS in last 14 follow-up games
Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+5.5 at PIT)

–  San Francisco: 12-4 SU and 11-5 ATS last 16 when having won initial outing
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-3 at ARI)

Worst NFL teams in rematches after winning last game lately
–  Carolina: 3-12 ATS last 15 after beating opponent initial outing
Trend Match (FADE): CAROLINA (+3.5 at ATL)

High-scoring rematch teams
–  Minnesota: Over in 13 of last 18 rematch games
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CHI-MIN (o/u at 48.5)

Noteworthy NFL head-to-head second-time (and 3rd) around trends
–  Baltimore: 7-3 SU and ATS in the last 10 rematches vs. Cleveland
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-7.5 at CLE)

– Cincinnati: 6-2 ATS streak vs. PIT
Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+5.5 at PIT)

Rematch Betting Systems
Teams that won by 21 or more points in the opening game between teams are 86-28 SU and 71-43 ATS (62.3%) in the rematch
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON (-6.5 at TEN), CAROLINA (+3.5 at ATL), BALTIMORE (-7.5 at CLE)

Teams that lost the prior game to an opponent but now have a record of 20% or better outright have gone 46-16 SU and 39-23 ATS (62.9%) in the rematch contest
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (-5.5 vs CIN), CHICAGO (+3 at MIN)

NFL Rookie/Retread Coaching Systems

This material is from the VSiN piece entitled Analyzing the New NFL Head Coaches for 2025 detailing systems that apply to rookie coaches Ben Johnson (Chicago), Brian Schottenheimer (Dallas), Liam Coen (Jacksonville), Kellen Moore (New Orleans), and Aaron Glenn (NY Jets) as well as re-tread coaches Pete Carroll (Las Vegas) and Mike Vrabel (New England). 

Rookie Coach Systems

(Games this week: NYJ(+12.5)-NE, CHI(+3)-MIN, LAC-JAX(+3), DAL(-3.5)-LVR) 

– Rookie head coaches haven’t been good at covering point spreads at home over the last decade – 156-184-10 ATS (45.9%).
System Match (FADE): JACKSONVILLE 

– Rookie head coaches have also struggled in the large underdog role, going 27-118-1 SU (19%) and 71-75 ATS (48.6%) when catching 7 points or more since 2017.
System Match (FADE): NY JETS 

– In a trend that seems to make sense as far as familiarity is concerned, the more familiar the opponent, the less successful rookie head coaches have been. Since 2015: Divisional games 115-132-4 ATS (46.6%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY JETS, CHICAGO

– After wins, rookie coaches have done measurably worse in that same time frame, 49-76-6 ATS (39.2%) in their last 131.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO 

– Rookie head coaches have also struggled in the revenge spot. When taking on a team they lost to earlier that season, they are just 28-44 SU and 31-41 ATS (43.1%) in the follow-up contest since 2015.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO

Retread Coach Systems

(Games this week: NYJ-NE(-12.5), DAL-LVR(+3.5)) 

– Retread head coaches have been brutal bets as favorites in their first seasons with a new franchise. As favorites since 2015, they’ve gone 97-68 SU but just 63-91-11 ATS, for 40.9%!
System Match (PLAY): NEW ENGLAND 

– In non-conference games, retread coaches have really struggled, going 45-61 ATS (42.5%) over the last decade, including 18-31 ATS (36.7%) over the last 3+ seasons.
System Match (FADE): LAS VEGAS 

– There seems to be a noteworthy trend of momentum that comes with these retread head coaches. Since 2015, when coming off a win or tie, these coaches have posted a modest 84-79 ATS (51.5%) record in their first seasons, including 34-26 ATS (56.7%) since mid-2022. When coming off a loss, the record has been an ugly 140-176 ATS (44.3%) in that same time span.
System Match (PLAY): NEW ENGLAND
System Match (FADE): LAS VEGAS

NFL Rookie Quarterback Systems

These systems take into account rookie quarterback records in their first seasons. They include game logs of any rookie who started seven or more games in that first season. The starters this week include Cam Ward (Tennessee), Dillon Gabriel (Cleveland), and JJ McCarthy (Minnesota). 

(Games this week: CHI-MIN(-3), HOU-TEN(+6.5), BAL-CLE(+7.5)) 

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #4 – Rookie quarterbacks have experienced major late-season woes
For as much as rookie QBs have struggled early in recent years, over the long haul, or since 2008, the part of the season in which they have struggled worst is in Weeks 10-15, as they are just 104-161 SU and 113-141-11 ATS (44.5%) in that time span.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA, TENNESSEE, CLEVELAND 

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #6 – Don’t fall for the big underdog point spreads with rookie quarterbacks
Since 2015, rookie starting quarterbacks facing underdog lines of 6.5 points or more have won just 24 games, going 24-130 SU and 62-88-4 ATS (41.3%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): TENNESSEE, CLEVELAND 

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #8 – Rookie quarterbacks have been INCREDIBLE bets in the home favorite role over the last five seasons
Since the start of the 2020 season, rookie starting quarterbacks have taken care of business in the home favorite role, going 42-12 SU and 39-14-1 ATS (73.6%).
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA 

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #10 – By type of opponent, divisional matchups have been toughest for rookie starting quarterbacks
Since 2015, rookie QBs are just 52-110 SU and 68-89-4 ATS (43.3%) versus divisional opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA, TENNESSEE, CLEVELAND 

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #11 – Losses have tended to snowball for rookie QBs
In their last 185 starts with their teams coming off outright losses, rookie QBs have gone just 59-126 SU and 83-99-2 ATS (45.6%). This trend dates back to 2018.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA, TENNESSEE, CLEVELAND 

NFL Veteran Quarterback Leading New Team Systems

These systems take into account veteran quarterback records in their first season with a new team. They include game logs of 32 different veteran QBs since 2004 who have played at least eight years in the NFL and started extensively on a previous team. This week, there are five different QBs finding themselves in a new place: Aaron Rodgers (Pittsburgh), Jacoby Brissett (Arizona), Joe Flacco (Cincinnati), Jameis Winston (NY Giants), and Geno Smith (Las Vegas). 

(Games this week: CIN(+5.5)-PIT(-5.5), GB-NYG(+7), SF-ARI(+3), DAL-LVR(+3.5)) 

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #4 – Non-Sunday games have been a struggle for veteran QBs with their new teams
Veteran quarterbacks have struggled under the spotlight of non-Sunday games lately, going 28-44 SU and 29-42-1 ATS (40.8%) in their last 72 such tries for their new teams. Moreover, they are 11-21-1 ATS (34.4%) in their last 33 Monday Night contests.
System Match (FADE): LAS VEGAS 

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Veteran quarterbacks thrive with their new teams at home
The results since 2005 of veteran quarterbacks playing with their new teams at home are quite impressive, as they have gone 130-88 SU and 114-93-11 ATS (55.1%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH, NY GIANTS, ARIZONA, LAS VEGAS 

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #6 – By type of opponent, non-divisional conference matchups have been best for veteran starting quarterbacks in their first season with new teams
Since 2005, veteran QBs in their first season with new teams have fared well against non-divisional conference opponents, going 89-77 SU and 90-74-2 ATS (54.9%).
System Match (PLAY): NY GIANTS 

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #7 – Non-conference matchups have been an absolute struggle for veteran starting quarterbacks in their first season with new teams over the last four years
Since 2021, veteran QBs in their first season with new teams have struggled horribly against non-conference opponents, going 18-33 SU and 16-35 ATS (31.4%).
System Match (FADE): LAS VEGAS 

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #8 –Veteran QBs have shown an inability to strong win streaks together recently
In their last 66 starts with their new teams coming off outright victories, new incoming veteran QBs have gone just 30-36 SU and 24-41-1 ATS (36.9%). This trend dates back to 2021.
System Match (FADE): ARIZONA 

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #11 – Veteran quarterbacks are consistent bets as smaller road underdogs with new teams
Dating back to 2006, veteran starting quarterbacks in their first seasons with new teams have gone 37-35 SU and 47-25 ATS (65.3%) when playing as road underdogs of +5.5 points or fewer.
System Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI

Strategies Using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published in the 2025 NFL Betting Guide, Steve Makinen outlined 12 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of Wednesday at 4:00 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage. 

Here is a quick tabulation on how DK bettors performed in the 2024 season: 

– Majority handle on point spreads: 141-131 ATS (51.8%)
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 140-130 ATS (51.9%)
– Majority handle on totals: 143-133 (51.8%)
– Majority number of bets on totals: 147-131 (52.9%) 

These are very good wrap up numbers by the standards that have been established in most of the similar reports I have done for other sports. Considering NFL betting is king, it’s nice to see recreational bettors like those at DraftKings holding their own. With that in mind, here are the systems with updated language and records heading into the 2025 season. 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #1: Over the past two seasons, when more than 68% of the handle has been on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group is just 71-81 ATS (46.7%). The number for this “super-majority” in college football was closer to 75%. In other words, if you see over 2/3 of the handle backing one side in an NFL game this season, it’s consistently profitable to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI, BUFFALO, TENNESSEE, LA RAMS, SAN FRANCISCO, BALTIMORE, KANSAS CITY, DALLAS

NFL DK Betting Splits system #2: In NFL divisional games of 2022-24, DK majority handle bettors have been awful, as this majority group is just 117-148 ATS (44.2%). With the obvious generality that public bettors love favorites, it’s clear that they don’t value the stakes of these rivalry games and what they mean for the competitors.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW ENGLAND, CINCINNATI, TENNESSEE, MINNESOTA, CAROLINA, LA RAMS, SAN FRANCISCO, BALTIMORE, KANSAS CITY

NFL DK Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2 above, in that same time span, when the majority number of bets staked its side in an NFL divisional game, this majority group is just 118-150 ATS (44%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW ENGLAND, CINCINNATI, HOUSTON, ATLANTA, LA RAMS, SAN FRANCISCO, BALTIMORE, KANSAS CITY 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #4: In NFL non-conference games of 2023 and 2024, DK majority number of bets groups were actually quite sharp, going 79-64 ATS (55.2%). This is obviously quite the opposite performance level of #3 above, and unfortunately for bettors, there are two fewer non-conference tilts than divisional contests for each team on the schedule every year. Of course, if strategically playing both spots according to these systems, every game in either situation is an opportunity.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): MIAMI, TAMPA BAY, DALLAS 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #5: Since the start of the ’23 season, when the majority number of bets have backed ROAD FAVORITES for an ATS wager, these majority groups are actually 100-87 ATS (53.5%). I will tell you that there are only 15 games or fewer each year when this group will actually back the home dog. Watch this one closely, as backing road favorites in the NFL has never been a consistent winning strategy.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): GREEN BAY, HOUSTON, LA CHARGERS, SAN FRANCISCO, BALTIMORE, KANSAS CITY, DALLAS

NFL DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority handle was on road underdogs for an ATS wager over the last two years, these majority groups have surprisingly struggled, 27-36 ATS (42.9%). This goes against the logic I have discovered in other sports, which says that when the public goes “against the grain,” they can do well. Quite the opposite here. As you can see, it is rare, just 63 games in two full seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI, CAROLINA, DETROIT 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle and number of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games over the last two seasons, these majority groups are just 100-114 ATS (46.7%) and 101-111 ATS (47.6%), respectively. This set of games includes all the Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests. These numbers were improved along with the overall majority figures last year, but I wouldn’t expect that to continue.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW ENGLAND, DETROIT, DALLAS 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #8: In another rare winning record, when the majority number of bets has backed the team with fewer season wins in a 2023 or 2024 NFL game for an ATS wager, this majority group was 46-38 ATS (54.8%). This has proven to be a situation in which going against the grain pays off.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI, ATLANTA, KANSAS CITY, DETROIT 

DK Betting Splits system #9: The average NFL total in 2023 was 43.0. Last year, it ballooned back up to 44.6. In games where the totals reached 46.5 or higher and odds makers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, majority number of bettors have gauged these games incredibly well the last two years, going 96-72 ATS (60.8%)! We’ll see how that trend holds in 2025.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – WAS-MIA, TB-BUF, CHI-MIN, SEA-LAR, DET-PHI
UNDER – DAL-LVR

DK Betting Splits system #11: The magic mark for super majority on handle for betting Overs was 74% or higher, and this group performed miserably in 2023 and 2024 with a record of 46-69 (42.6%). To me, this has been a long-standing belief, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses. On the number of bets, this same super majority percentage produced a slightly improved 30-37 (44.8%) record, still poor though.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL INSTEAD): CHI-MIN, SF-ARI, KC-DEN 

DK Betting Splits system #12: Call this one the Over trap, but when a super-majority (>=64%) of handle has been on the Over, but DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week, this majority group has lost big, going just 70-92 (43.2%) over the past three seasons. Almost as if they were trying to bait more people into taking the Over. This is a classic example of where those behind the counter are smarter than those trying to cash the tickets.
System Match (PLAY UNDER INSTEAD): KC-DEN 

This Week’s NFL Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAS VEGAS +3.5 (+2.2)
2. WASHINGTON +2.5 (+2.1)
3(tie). JACKSONVILLE +3 (+1.7)
DENVER +3.5 (+1.7)
5. DETROIT +2.5 (+1.1) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). GREEN BAY -7 (+1.5)
ATLANTA -3.5 (+1.5)
3. BALTIMORE -7.5 (+0.7)
4. HOUSTON -6.5 (+0.3)
5. PITTSBURGH -5.5 (+0.2) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SEATTLE +3 (+2.3)
2. JACKSONVILLE +3 (+2.1)
3. CINCINNATI +5.5 (+1.7)
4. TAMPA BAY +5.5 (+1.4)
5. DETROIT +2.5 (+1.2) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOUSTON -6.5 (+5.6)
2. DALLAS -3.5 (+1.0)
3. MINNESOTA -3 (+0.5)
4(tie). SAN FRANCISCO -3 (+0.2)
NEW ENGLAND -12.5 (+0.2) 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BAL-CLE OVER 38.5 (+5.8)
2. CAR-ATL OVER 42.5 (+2.3)
3. KC-DEN OVER 43.5 (+1.7)
4. LAC-JAX OVER 43.5 (+1.6)
5. HOU-TEN OVER 37.5 (+0.7) 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DET-PHI UNDER 46.5 (-2.0)
2. SEA-LAR UNDER 48.5 (-0.9)
3(tie). WAS-MIA UNDER 47.5 (-0.4)
TB-BUF UNDER 48.5 (-0.4)
5. SF-ARI UNDER 48.5 (-0.2) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. WASHINGTON +2.5 (+5.8)
2. JACKSONVILLE +3 (+5.4)
3(tie). TENNESSEE +6.5 (+2.4)
DETROIT +2.5 (+2.4)
5. SEATTLE +3 (+1.9) 

This week’s Top 4 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAN FRANCISCO -3 (+2.8)
2. GREEN BAY -7 (+2.4)
3. ATLANTA -3.5 (+1.6)
4. PITTSBURGH -5.5 (+0.4) 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAC-JAX OVER 43.5 (+3.8)
2. BAL-CLE OVER 38.5 (+3.1)
3. TB-BUF OVER 48.5 (+2.9)
4. DET-PHI OVER 46.5 (+1.8)
5. SF-ARI OVER 48.5 (+0.8) 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CAR-ATL UNDER 42.5 (-3.9)
2. CHI-MIN UNDER 48.5 (-2.5)
3. WAS-MIA UNDER 47.5 (-1.5)
4. KC-DEN UNDER 43.5 (-1.4)
5. HOU-TEN UNDER 37.5 (-1.2) 

These are the top head-to-head series NFL betting trends between teams from recent years’ action:

(311) NY JETS at (312) NEW ENGLAND
* Under the total is 5-1 in the NYJ-NE AFC East rivalry in the last three seasons
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYJ-NE (o/u at 43.5) 

(451) WASHINGTON at (452) MIAMI
* MIAMI is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five games with Washington
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-2.5 vs WAS) 

(453) GREEN BAY at (454) NY GIANTS
* Home teams are 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine non-neutral meetings between GB and NYG
Trend Match (PLAY): NY GIANTS (+7 vs GB) 

(455) TAMPA BAY at (456) BUFFALO
* TAMPA BAY is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven matchups with Buffalo
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (+5.5 at BUF) 

(457) CINCINNATI at (458) PITTSBURGH
* Underdogs are 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in the last four of the CIN-PIT divisional set
Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+5.5 at PIT) 

(459) HOUSTON at (460) TENNESSEE
* HOUSTON is 8-2 ATS versus Tennessee since 2021
Trend Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-6.5 at TEN) 

(461) CHICAGO at (462) MINNESOTA
* Road teams are 8-3 SU and 8-2-1 ATS in the CHI-MIN NFC North divisional series
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (+3 at MIN) 

(463) CAROLINA at (464) ATLANTA
* Underdogs are on 8-3 SU and 9-2 ATS surge in the CAR-ATL divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): CAROLINA (+3.5 at ATL)

(465) LA CHARGERS at (466) JACKSONVILLE
* Over the total is 12-2 in the LAC-JAX cross-country series since 2003
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LAC-JAX (o/u at 43.5) 

(467) SEATTLE at (468) LA RAMS
* LA RAMS have dominated Seattle lately, going 11-2 ATS since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY): LA RAMS (-3 vs SEA) 

(469) SAN FRANCISCO at (470) ARIZONA
* ARIZONA has covered all three meetings with San Francisco since the start of last season
Trend Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (+3 vs SF) 

(471) BALTIMORE at (472) CLEVELAND
* Over the total has converted in the last four meetings between the Ravens and the Browns
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): BAL-CLE (o/u at 39.5) 

(473) KANSAS CITY at (474) DENVER
* DENVER is 6-1 ATS in matchups with Kansas City since 2022
Trend Match (PLAY): DENVER (+3.5 vs KC) 

(475) DETROIT at (476) PHILADELPHIA
* Over the total has converted in all nine meetings between Detroit and Philadelphia since 2007
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DET-PHI (o/u at 46.5) 

(477) DALLAS at (478) LAS VEGAS
* Favorites are 5-0 SU and 3-1-1 ATS in the DAL-LVR series at the Raiders
Trend Match (PLAY): DALLAS (-3.5 at LVR)

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR