The following NFL betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NFL games of Week 12. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFL board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NFL betting trends and systems for this week’s NFL games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

NFL Streaks Betting System #13: NFL teams that have lost at least their last five games outright have gone 13-66 SU but 51-27-1 ATS (65.4%) as double-digit road underdogs since 2006.
System Match (PLAY): NY GIANTS (+10.5 at DET) 

* BUFFALO is 22-7 SU and 23-6 ATS vs. elite defenses allowing <19 PPG since 2018
Trend Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (-6 at HOU) 

* Sunday Night Football teams coming off of losses have proven not ready for the big time, as they have gone just 14-28 SU and 15-27 ATS (35.7%) in their last 42 tries against teams off a win.
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (+6.5 at LAR) 

* BALTIMORE is 10-2 SU and ATS in games with NYJ since 1997
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-13.5 vs NYJ)

* NEW ORLEANS is on 16-1 Under the total run when playing with extra rest (>7 days)
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ATL-NO (o/u at 39.5)

* Dallas is 16-2 to the Over in the last 18 home rematch games
Trend Match (PLAY): PHI-DAL (o/u at 47.5) 

Post-bye week system #7: Play Under the total with road teams coming off their bye week (Record: 44-25-1 since 2021, 63.8%, +16.5 Units, 23.9% ROI, Grade 65)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): IND-KC (o/u at 50.5) 

#1 TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen Effective Strength Ratings: SEA-TEN OVER 40.5 (projections have total at 44.6)

These are some of the top situational NFL betting trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action: 

(111) BUFFALO (7-3) at (112) HOUSTON (5-5)
* BUFFALO is 22-7 SU and 23-6 ATS vs. elite defenses allowing <19 PPG since 2018
* BUFFALO is 42-29 ATS (59.2%) in non-divisional conference games since 2017
* BUFFALO is 32-26 ATS (55.2%) in road/neutral games since 2019
* HOUSTON is on a 17-58 SU and 26-48 ATS slide vs. elite teams with a point differential of >=+4.5 PPG since 2010
Trends Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (-6 at HOU)

* BUFFALO’s Josh Allen is 37-22 Under the total on the road since 2018
* HOUSTON’s DeMeco Ryans is on 17-6 Under the total surge vs. teams with a winning record
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): BUF-HOU (o/u at 43.5) 

(241) PITTSBURGH (6-4) at (242) CHICAGO (7-3)
* PITTSBURGH is 19-12 SU and 20-11 ATS vs. teams with better records since 2013
* PITTSBURGH’s Mike Tomlin is on 32-26 SU and 38-18 ATS run as a single-digit underdog
Trends Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (+2.5 at CHI)

* PITTSBURGH’s Aaron Rodgers is 15-7 Under the total vs. teams with a better record since 2014
* PITTSBURGH is 107-74 Under the total (59.1%) since 2015
* CHICAGO is 17-5 Under the total when coming off an upset win since 2017
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): PIT-CHI (o/u at 45.5) 

(243) NY JETS (2-8) at (244) BALTIMORE (5-5)
* NY JETS own ugly 12-49 SU and 20-39 ATS record as road underdogs since 2016
Trend Match (FADE): NY JETS (+13.5 at BAL)

* BALTIMORE’s Lamar Jackson is 13-5 SU but 6-12 ATS in the last 18 games vs. poor teams with a winning percentage <=33%
Trend Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (-13.5 vs NYJ) 

(245) NY GIANTS (2-9) at (246) DETROIT (6-4)
* DETROIT’s Dan Campbell is on a 13-0 SU and ATS streak coming off an outright loss
* DETROIT’s Jared Goff is 10-7 SU but 5-12 ATS as a home favorite of more than 7 points since 2018
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of DETROIT (-10.5 vs NYG)

* NY GIANTS are 60-34 Under the total (63.8%) since 2020
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYG-DET (o/u at 50.5) 

(247) NEW ENGLAND (9-2) at (248) CINCINNATI (3-7)
* NEW ENGLAND is 33-6 SU and 30-9 ATS when riding a three-game or more outright winning streak since 2016
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ENGLAND (-7.5 at CIN)

* CINCINNATI is 14-25 SU but 27-13 ATS surge when coming off an outright road loss since 2016
* CINCINNATI is 73-59 SU and 80-52 ATS when playing on normal rest (7 days) since 2012
* CINCINNATI’s Zac Taylor is on a 14-11 SU and 18-7 ATS run vs. elite teams with winning percentages >=66.7%
* CINCINNATI is 49-29 ATS (62.8%) in non-divisional conference games since 2015
* CINCINNATI is 27-20 ATS (57.4%) as an underdog since 2020
Trends Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+7.5 vs NE)

* CINCINNATI’s Joe Flacco is 21-5 Under the total with his team coming off a divisional loss since 2012
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NE-CIN (o/u at 50.5) 

(249) SEATTLE (7-3) at (250) TENNESSEE (1-9)
* SEATTLE is 37-25 ATS (59.7%) when coming off a SU loss since 2015
* SEATTLE is 25-16-1 ATS (61%) vs. non-conference foes since 2015
* SEATTLE’s Sam Darnold is 11-11 SU and 8-13-1 ATS in the last 22 starts vs. teams with losing records
Trends Match: 2 PLAYS, 1 FADE of SEATTLE (-13.5 at TEN)

* TENNESSEE is 21-16 SU and 22-14 ATS when coming off a home loss since 2015
* TENNESSEE is on an 8-37 SU and 11-33-1 ATS skid in Sunday games
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of TENNESSEE (+13.5 vs SEA)

* SEATTLE’s Sam Darnold is 28-14 Under the total when his team plays with normal rest (7 days) since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SEA-TEN (o/u at 40.5) 

(251) MINNESOTA (4-6) at (252) GREEN BAY (6-3)
* MINNESOTA boasts an impressive 83-60 SU and 89-53-1 ATS record when playing on normal rest (7 days) since 2011
* MINNESOTA is 5-23 SU and 9-20 ATS as a divisional road underdog since 2010
* MINNESOTA is 34-27 ATS (55.7%) when coming off a SU loss since 2014
Trends Match: 2 PLAYS, 1 FADE of MINNESOTA (+6.5 at GB)

* GREEN BAY’s Matt Lafleur is 23-15-1 SU but 14-25 ATS as a single-digit favorite since 2021
* GREEN BAY is 94-22 SU and 72-42 ATS as a home favorite since 2009
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of GREEN BAY (-6.5 vs MIN)

* MINNESOTA is 64-49 Over the total (56.6%) since 2019
* MINNESOTA’s Kevin O’Connell is 18-8 Over the total vs. teams with a winning record since 2022
* GREEN BAY’s Jordan Love is on 15-8 Over the total surge when his team is coming off a win
Trends Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-GB (o/u at 41.5) 

(253) INDIANAPOLIS (8-2) at (254) KANSAS CITY (5-5)
* INDIANAPOLIS is 17-18 SU and 24-11 ATS vs. elite teams with point differentials of >=+4.5 PPG since 2015
* INDIANAPOLIS is 25-22 SU and 33-13 ATS vs. elite defenses allowing <19 PPG since 2010
* INDIANAPOLIS’s Daniel Jones is 9-10 SU and 14-5 ATS as a road underdog of +3 to +7 points since 2019
Trends Match (PLAY): INDIANAPOLIS (+3.5 at KC)

* KANSAS CITY’s Patrick Mahomes boasts a 31-13 SU and 26-16 ATS record vs. teams with elite point differentials of >=+4.5 since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-3.5 vs IND)

* INDIANAPOLIS’s Daniel Jones is 33-15 Under the total as an underdog since 2020
* KANSAS CITY is 77-40 Under the total as a home favorite since 2010
* KANSAS CITY’s Andy Reid is on 11-4 Under the total streak vs. elite offenses scoring >=27 PPG
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): IND-KC (o/u at 50.5)

(255) JACKSONVILLE (6-4) at (256) ARIZONA (3-7)
* JACKSONVILLE is 10-51 SU and 16-44 ATS versus NFC foes since 2011
* JACKSONVILLE is 21-30 ATS (41.2%) as a favorite since 2018
* JACKSONVILLE’s Trevor Lawrence is 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS with his team coming off an upset win since 2022
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 2 FADES of JACKSONVILLE (-3 at ARI)

* JACKSONVILLE is 44-35 Under the total (55.7%) since 2021
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): JAX-ARI (o/u at 47.5)

* ARIZONA is 28-34 ATS (45.2%) at home since 2018
* ARIZONA is 34-21 ATS (61.8%) as an underdog since 2021
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of ARIZONA (+3 vs JAX) 

(257) CLEVELAND (2-8) at (258) LAS VEGAS (2-8)
* CLEVELAND is 14-2 Under the total as a dome dog of +3 to +7 points since 2016
* CLEVELAND’s Kevin Stefanski is 17-11 Under the total vs. teams with a losing record since 2020
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-LVR (o/u at 36.5)

* CLEVELAND’s Kevin Stefanski is on a 9-7 SU and ATS run when coming off an outright home loss
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+3.5 at LVR)

* LAS VEGAS’ Geno Smith is 8-12 SU but 12-8 ATS with his team coming off a double-digit loss since 2013
* LAS VEGAS is 11-18 SU and 8-21 ATS vs. poor teams with point differentials of <=-4.5 PPG since 2018
* LAS VEGAS is 38-52 ATS (42.2%) when coming off a SU loss since 2015
* LAS VEGAS is 17-21 ATS (44.7%) as a favorite since 2019
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 3 FADES of LAS VEGAS (-3.5 vs CLE) 

(259) ATLANTA (3-7) at (260) NEW ORLEANS (2-8)
* ATLANTA is on a 12-24 SU and 10-26 ATS skid on normal rest (7 days)
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (+1.5 at NO)

* NEW ORLEANS is 25-46 ATS (35.2%) at home since 2017
Trend Match (FADE): NEW ORLEANS (-1.5 vs ATL)

* ATLANTA’s Kirk Cousins is 11-2 Over the total in the last 13 games as a divisional road underdog
* NEW ORLEANS is on 16-1 Under the total run when playing with extra rest (>7 days)
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in ATL-NO (o/u at 39.5) 

(261) PHILADELPHIA (8-2) at (262) DALLAS (4-5)
* PHILADELPHIA is 22-10 Over the total when coming off a home win since 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PHI-DAL (o/u at 47.5)

* DALLAS is 20-18 SU and 13-24 ATS when playing on short rest (<7 days) since 2010
* DALLAS’ Dak Prescott is 32-6 SU and 29-9 ATS in divisional games since 2017
* DALLAS’s Dak Prescott owns a poor 22-30-1 SU and 17-36 ATS record vs. teams with winning records since 2016
* DALLAS’ Dak Prescott is on a 3-13-1 SU and 5-12 ATS skid as a single-digit underdog
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 3 FADES of DALLAS (+3 vs PHI) 

(263) TAMPA BAY (6-4) at (264) LA RAMS (8-2)
* TAMPA BAY’s Todd Bowles is 14-6 Over the total vs. teams with a better record since 2017
* TAMPA BAY is on 28-10 Over the total surge as a single-digit road underdog
* LA RAMS are 57-44 Under the total (56.4%) since 2020
Trends Match: 2 PLAYS OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in TB-LAR (o/u at 49.5)

* TAMPA BAY’s Baker Mayfield is 11-19 SU but 19-11 ATS as a road underdog since 2020
* TAMPA BAY is 31-36 ATS (46.3%) when coming off a SU loss since 2016
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of TAMPA BAY (+6.5 at LAR)

* LA RAMS’ Matthew Stafford is 37-65 SU and 38-62 ATS vs. teams with winning records since 2011
* LA RAMS’ Sean McVay is just 12-15 SU and 8-17 ATS in his last 26 November games
Trends Match (FADE): LA RAMS (-6.5 vs TB) 

(265) CAROLINA (6-5) at (266) SAN FRANCISCO (7-4)
* CAROLINA is 23-33 ATS (41.1%) in non-divisional conference games since 2018
Trend Match (FADE): CAROLINA (+7 at SF)

* SAN FRANCISCO’s Kyle Shanahan is 14-3 SU and ATS in his last 17 games vs. poor offensive teams scoring <19 PPG
* SAN FRANCISCO’s Brock Purdy is 2-6 SU and 0-8 ATS in his last eight starts following up a game in which his team scored 30+ points
* SAN FRANCISCO’s Brock Purdy is just 9-8 SU and 5-12 ATS in his last 17 vs. teams with lesser records
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 2 FADES of SAN FRANCISCO (-7 vs CAR)

* SAN FRANCISCO is on 16-2 Over the total surge as a home favorite of -3 to -7 points
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CAR-SF (o/u at 48.5)

The following NFL betting trends and systems come from a log of all the Thursday night (TNF), Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night (MNF) games since the start of the 2019 season. Only Thursday night games were included in the TNF study, not the day games played on Thanksgiving. The Sunday night games only included those games played on Sunday night, not all of the games covered by the NBC SNF crew which also included some Wednesday and Saturday contests. The games analyzed were only regular-season games.

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

·   There has been some interesting data regarding the first and second half of the season in terms of Thursday night games. In the first half of the season, or Weeks 1-8, home teams have gone 30-24 SU but 19-33-2 ATS (36.5%) in the last 54. Going back even further, since 2016, TNF home teams in Weeks 9 and later are 46-28 SU and 43-28-3 ATS (60.6%). There seems to be a fundamental edge to playing at home with less rest late in the season.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (+6 vs BUF)

·  Home underdogs on TNF have really struggled of late, going 8-23 SU and 12-19 ATS (38.7%) in their last 31, scoring just 16.2 PPG. In terms of totals, 19 of the last 29 (65.5%) TNF games featuring a home dog went Under.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (+6 vs BUF)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): BUF-HOU (o/u at 43.5) 

Bad TNF Team Trend
Houston 3-8 SU and ATS in the last 11
Trend Match (FADE): HOUSTON (+6 vs BUF)

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

·  Home favorites of less than a TD on SNF have historically been solid, going 61-40-2 ATS (60.4%) in their last 103.
System Match (PLAY): LA RAMS (-6.5 vs TB)

·  SNF teams coming off of losses have proven not ready for the big time, as they have gone just 14-28 SU and 15-27 ATS (35.7%) in their last 42 tries against teams off a win.
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (+6.5 at LAR)

·   Momentum has been big for hosts overall, as home teams on SNF coming off a loss in their last games are just 16-24-1 SU and 17-23-1 ATS (42.5%) in their last 41, but those coming off a win are on a current 30-10 SU and 24-16 ATS (60%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): LA RAMS (-6.5 vs TB)

· More on unusual stat angles, the best defensive teams in the league, or those allowing less than 19 PPG, have gone just 17-27-1 SU and 19-26 ATS (42.2%) against worse defenses on SNF since 2019.
System Match (FADE): LA RAMS (-6.5 vs TB) 

Under the total SNF Team Trends
LA Rams 7-2 Under since 2019
Tampa Bay 7-2 Under stretch
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): TB-LAR (o/u at 49.5) 

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

·  Laying 7 points or more has not been a good strategy on MNF, as favorites of 7 points or more are 49-15 SU but just 24-38-2 ATS (38.7%) since 2012.
System Match (FADE ATS): SAN FRANCISCO (-7 vs CAR)

·   In non-divisional conference matchups on MNF, hosts are on a 23-23 SU and 27-19 ATS (58.7%) surge since 2019.
System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-7 vs CAR)

·  Won/lost records have mattered on MNF, as teams with the better record are 47-42 SU but just 34-53-2 ATS (39.1%) in the last 89 MNF games not matching teams with identical records.
System Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (-7 vs CAR) 

Good MNF Team Trend
San Francisco 12-7 SU and ATS since 2012
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-7 vs CAR)

If you’ve picked up from each of the team trends sections that certain teams are consistently doing well or poorly, or are going Over or Under regularly, you’re right. Here are some overall primetime game trends that you’re going to want to consider: 

Good PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trend
Buffalo 19-9 SU and 15-13 ATS primetime run
Trend Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (-6 at HOU) 

Bad PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trends
Carolina 7-14 SU and 7-13-1 ATS in the last 21 primetime games
Trend Match (FADE): CAROLINA (+7 at SF)

Tampa Bay 11-21 SU and 9-23 ATS in the last 32
Trend Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (+6.5 at LAR)

Under the total PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trend
LA Rams 16-7 Under surge
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TB-LAR (o/u at 49.5)

NFL Streaks Provide Some Advantages for Bettors

The following betting systems focus on winning and losing streaks. Below are the ones that have qualifying plays for this week’s action. 

NFL Streaks Betting System #1: NFL teams that have lost their last three games ATS, all when favored, are on a 47-17 SU and 37-25-2 ATS (59.7%) run when favored in the next game as well.
System Match (PLAY): GREEN BAY (-6.5 vs MIN) 

NFL Streaks Betting System #12: NFL teams that have lost at least their last three games outright have gone 64-39 SU but 42-57-4 ATS (42.4%) when favored by 3 points or more since 2013.
System Match (FADE): LAS VEGAS (-3.5 vs CLE)

NFL Streaks Betting System #13: NFL teams that have lost at least their last five games outright have gone 13-66 SU but 51-27-1 ATS (65.4%) as double-digit road underdogs since 2006.
System Match (PLAY): NY GIANTS (+10.5 at DET)

Post Bye-Week Systems and Trends

The following systems and trends are from the long-running article series detailing pre- and post-bye week performance in the NFL. These records are from only in-season bye weeks and do not include playoffs or preseason 

Post-bye week system #4:
Play Over the total in games involving posted totals of less than 40 with teams coming out of their bye week. (Record: 29-20-2 since ’10, 59.2%, +7 Units, 14.3% ROI, Grade 60)
System Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-NO (o/u at 39.5) 

Post-bye week system #6:
Play against road teams coming off their bye week and facing a non-divisional conference opponent. (Record: 25-18 SU and 28-15 ATS since 2019, 65.1%, +11.5 Units, 26.7% ROI, Grade 65)
System Match (FADE): INDIANAPOLIS (+3.5 at KC) 

Post-bye week system #7:
Play Under the total with road teams coming off their bye week (Record: 44-25-1 since ‘21, 63.8%, +16.5 Units, 23.9% ROI, Grade 65)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): IND-KC (o/u at 50.5) 

** Please note that the systems above and all of the following trends only include bye week games from the regular season schedule, not playoffs. 

Indianapolis Colts Post-Bye Week Game: 11/23 at Kansas City Chiefs

·  Indianapolis has gone 15-5 SU and 14-5-1 ATS in its last 20 post-bye week games overall, including 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS in the last six
System Match (PLAY): INDIANAPOLIS (+3.5 at KC)

· The Colts are 5-1-1 Over the total in the last seven post-bye week games, total point production 54.3 PPG
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): IND-KC (o/u at 50.5) 

New Orleans Saints Post-Bye Week Game: 11/23 vs. Atlanta Falcons

·  New Orleans has lost six straight post-bye week games ATS
Trend Match (FADE): NEW ORLEANS (-1.5 vs ATL)

· The Saints are 6-1 Under the total in their last seven post-bye week games
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ATL-NO (o/u at 39.5) 

Handicapping NFL Rematch Games

The following trends and betting systems come from same season rematch data over the last 14 seasons 

Best NFL rematch teams lately
Dallas: 20-6 SU and 19-7 ATS since 2017
Trend Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+3 vs PHI) 

Worst NFL rematch teams lately
Philadelphia: just 11-12 SU and 8-14-1 ATS in the last 23 rematch games
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-3 at DAL) 

High-scoring rematch teams
Dallas: 16-2 to the Over in the last 18 home rematch games
Trend Match (PLAY): PHI-DAL (o/u at 47.5)

NFL Rookie/Retread Coaching Systems

This material is from the VSiN piece entitled Analyzing the New NFL Head Coaches for 2025 detailing systems that apply to rookie coaches Ben Johnson (Chicago), Brian Schottenheimer (Dallas), Liam Coen (Jacksonville), Kellen Moore (New Orleans), and Aaron Glenn (NY Jets) as well as re-tread coaches Pete Carroll (Las Vegas) and Mike Vrabel (New England). 

Rookie Coach Systems

(Games this week: PIT-CHI(-2.5), NYJ(+13.5)-BAL, JAX(-3)-ARI, ATL-NO(-1.5), PHI-DAL(+3)) 

– Rookie head coaches haven’t been good at covering point spreads at home over the last decade – 157-184-10 ATS (46%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO, NEW ORLEANS, DALLAS 

– In a trend that seems to make sense as far as familiarity is concerned, the more familiar the opponent, the less successful rookie head coaches have been. Since 2015: Divisional games 116-133-4 ATS (46.6%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW ORLEANS, DALLAS 

– After wins, rookie coaches have done measurably worse in that same time frame, 50-76-6 ATS (39.7%) in their last 132.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO, JACKSONVILLE, NEW ORLEANS, DALLAS 

– Rookie head coaches have also struggled in the revenge spot. When taking on a team they lost to earlier that season, they are just 29-44 SU and 32-41 ATS (43.8%) in the follow-up contest since 2015.
System Match (FADE): DALLAS (+3 vs PHI)

Retread Coach Systems

(Games this week: NE(-7.5)-CIN, CLE-LVR(-3.5))

– Retread head coaches have been brutal bets as favorites in their first seasons with a new franchise. As favorites since 2015, they’ve gone 97-68 SU but just 64-91-11 ATS, for 41.3%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW ENGLAND, LAS VEGAS 

– Since 2015, in Weeks #1-#10 of their first seasons, they’ve combined to go 109-139 ATS (44%), while in Weeks #11 and later, they’ve gone 82-75 ATS (52.2%). It seems that it takes some time for these coaches to find their footing in their new homes.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): NEW ENGLAND, LAS VEGAS

– There seems to be a noteworthy trend of momentum that comes with these re-tread head coaches. Since 2015, when coming off a win or tie, these coaches have posted a modest 85-79 ATS (51.8%) record in their first seasons, including 35-26 ATS (57.4%) since mid-2022. When coming off a loss, the record has been an ugly 140-177 ATS (44.2%) in that same time span.
System Match (PLAY): NEW ENGLAND
System Match (FADE): LAS VEGAS 

NFL Rookie Quarterback Systems

These systems take into account rookie quarterback records in their first seasons. They include game logs of any rookie who started seven or more games in that first season. The starters this week include Cam Ward (Tennessee), Shedeur Sanders (Cleveland), JJ McCarthy (Minnesota), Tyler Shough (NO Saints), and possibly Jaxson Dart (NY Giants, questionable with concussion). 

(Games this week: MIN(+6.5)-GB, SEA-TEN(+13.5), NYG(+10.5)-DET, ATL-NO(-1.5), CLE(+3.5)-LVR)

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #4 – Rookie quarterbacks have experienced major late-season woes
For as much as rookie QBs have struggled early in recent years, over the long haul, or since 2008, the part of the season in which they have struggled the worst is in weeks 10-15, as they are just 104-164 SU and 115-142-11 ATS (44.7%) in that time span.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA, TENNESSEE, NY GIANTS, CLEVELAND 

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Rookie quarterbacks have struggled on the road, particularly late in the season
The results of rookie quarterbacks on the road lately are startling. Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie starters have combined for a record of 143-130 ATS (52.4%) in home games but just 126-151 ATS (45.5%) in road/neutral games. In later season road games, week 10-EOY, they are just 40-108 SU and 62-84-2 ATS (42.5%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA, NY GIANTS, CLEVELAND 

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #6 – Don’t fall for the big underdog point spreads with rookie quarterbacks
Since 2015, rookie starting quarterbacks facing underdog lines of 6.5 points or more have won just 24 games, going 24-131 SU and 63-88-4 ATS (41.7%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA, TENNESSEE, NY GIANTS 

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #8 – Rookie quarterbacks have been INCREDIBLE bets in the home favorite role over the last five seasons
Since the start of the 2020 season, rookie starting quarterbacks have taken care of business in the home favorite role, going 42-13 SU and 39-15-1 ATS (72.2%).
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #9 – Rookie quarterbacks are not good bets as small road dogs
Over the last 12 seasons, rookie starting quarterbacks have proven not worthy of backing as small road underdogs, going 21-55 SU but 31-43-2 ATS (41.9%) when catching +4.5 points or fewer.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND 

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #10 – By type of opponent, divisional matchups have been toughest for rookie starting quarterbacks
Since 2015, rookie QBs are just 52-113 SU and 70-90-4 ATS (43.8%) versus divisional opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA, NEW ORLEANS

Since 2018, rookie QBs have fared well against non-divisional conference opponents, going 55-74 SU but 71-57 ATS (55.5%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY GIANTS, CLEVELAND

Since 2022, rookie QBs are 21-19 SU and 23-14-3 ATS (62.2%) versus non-conference foes.
System Match (PLAY): TENNESSEE 

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #11 – Losses have tended to snowball for rookie QBs
In their last 188 starts with their teams coming off outright losses, rookie QBs have gone just 59-129 SU and 85-100-2 ATS (45.9%). This trend dates back to 2018.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA, TENNESSEE, NY GIANTS, CLEVELAND

NFL Veteran Quarterback Leading New Team Systems

These systems take into account veteran quarterback records in their first season with a new team. They include game logs of 32 different veteran QBs since 2004 who have played at least eight years in the NFL and started extensively on a previous team. This week, there are four different QBs finding themselves in a new place: Aaron Rodgers (Pittsburgh), Jacoby Brissett (Arizona), Joe Flacco (Cincinnati), and Geno Smith (Las Vegas). 

(Games this week: PIT(+2.5)-CHI, JAX-ARI(+3), NE-CIN(+7.5), CLE-LVR(-3.5)) 

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Veteran quarterbacks thrive with their new teams at home
The results since 2005 of veteran quarterbacks playing with their new teams at home are quite impressive, as they have gone 131-91 SU and 116-95-11 ATS (55%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ARIZONA, CINCINNATI, LAS VEGAS 

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #6 – By type of opponent, non-divisional conference matchups have been best for veteran starting quarterbacks in their first season with new teams
Since 2005, veteran QBs in their first season with new teams have fared well against non-divisional conference opponents, going 89-78 SU and 91-74-2 ATS (55.2%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI, LAS VEGAS 

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #7 – Non-conference matchups have been an absolute struggle for veteran starting quarterbacks in their first season with new teams over the last four years
Since 2021, veteran QBs in their first season with new teams have struggled horribly against non-conference opponents, going 18-34 SU and 16-36 ATS (30.8%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH, ARIZONA 

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #8 –Veteran QBs have shown an inability to strong win streaks together recently
In their last 67 starts with their new teams coming off outright victories, new incoming veteran QBs have gone just 30-37 SU and 24-42-1 ATS (36.4%). This trend dates back to 2021.
System Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #11 – Veteran quarterbacks are consistent bets as smaller road underdogs with new teams
Dating back to 2006, veteran starting quarterbacks in their first seasons with new teams have gone 37-36 SU and 47-26 ATS (64.4%) when playing as road underdogs of +5.5 points or fewer.
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH

NFL Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NFL games and detail the results of the follow-up game for these teams. 

NO QUALIFYING EXTREME STATS SYSTEMS THIS WEEK

Strategies Using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published in the 2025 NFL Betting Guide, Steve Makinen outlined 12 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of Wednesday at 2:45 PM ET. These can AND WILL change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage.

Here is a quick tabulation on how DK bettors performed in the 2024 season: 

– Majority handle on point spreads: 141-131 ATS (51.8%)
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 140-130 ATS (51.9%)
– Majority handle on totals: 143-133 (51.8%)
– Majority number of bets on totals: 147-131 (52.9%) 

These are very good wrap up numbers by the standards that have been established in most of the similar reports I have done for other sports. Considering NFL betting is king, it’s nice to see recreational bettors like those at DraftKings holding their own. With that in mind, here are the systems with updated language and records heading into the 2025 season. 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #1: Over the past two seasons, when more than 68% of the handle has been on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group is just 71-81 ATS (46.7%). The number for this “super-majority” in college football was closer to 75%. In other words, if you see over 2/3 of the handle backing one side in an NFL game this season, it’s consistently profitable to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BUFFALO, CHICAGO, DETROIT, NEW ENGLAND, SEATTLE, MINNESOTA, LAS VEGAS, CAROLINA 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #2: In NFL divisional games of 2022-24, DK majority handle bettors have been awful, as this majority group is just 117-148 ATS (44.2%). With the obvious generality that public bettors love favorites, it’s clear that they don’t value the stakes of these rivalry games and what they mean for the competitors.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA, ATLANTA, DALLAS 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2 above, in that same time span, when the majority number of bets staked its side in an NFL divisional game, this majority group is just 118-150 ATS (44%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA, ATLANTA, PHILADELPHIA

NFL DK Betting Splits system #4: In NFL non-conference games of 2023 and 2024, DK majority number of bets groups were actually quite sharp, going 79-64 ATS (55.2%). This is obviously quite the opposite performance level of #3 above, and unfortunately for bettors, there are two fewer non-conference tilts than divisional contests for each team on the schedule every year. Of course, if strategically playing both spots according to these systems, every game in either situation is an opportunity.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CHICAGO, JACKSONVILLE 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #5: Since the start of the 2023 season, when the majority number of bets have backed road favorites for an ATS wager, these majority groups are actually 100-87 ATS (53.5%). I will tell you that there are only 15 games or fewer each year when this group will actually back the home dog. Watch this one closely, as backing road favorites in the NFL has never been a consistent winning strategy.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): BUFFALO, NEW ENGLAND, SEATTLE, JACKSONVILLE, PHILADELPHIA 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority handle was on road underdogs for an ATS wager over the last two years, these majority groups have surprisingly struggled, 27-36 ATS (42.9%). This goes against the logic I have discovered in other sports, which says that when the public goes “against the grain,” they can do well. Quite the opposite here. As you can see, it is rare, just 63 games in two full seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY JETS, MINNESOTA, ATLANTA, CAROLINA 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle and number of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games over the last two seasons, these majority groups are just 100-114 ATS (46.7%) and 101-111 ATS (47.6%), respectively. This set of games includes all the Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests. These numbers were improved along with the overall majority figures last year, but I wouldn’t expect that to continue.
System Match (FADE): BUFFALO

NFL DK Betting Splits system #8: In another rare winning record, when the majority number of bets has backed the team with fewer season wins in a 2023 or 2024 NFL game for an ATS wager, this majority group was 46-38 ATS (54.8%). This has proven to be a situation in which going against the grain pays off.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA, TAMPA BAY

DK Betting Splits system #9: The average NFL total in 2023 was 43.0. Last year it ballooned back up to 44.6. In games where the totals reached 46.5 or higher and odds makers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, majority number of bettors have gauged these games incredibly well the last two years, going 96-72 ATS (60.8%)! We’ll see how that trend holds in ‘25.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – NYG-DET, JAX-ARI, TB-LAR, CAR-SF
UNDER – NE-CIN, IND-KC, PHI-DAL 

DK Betting Splits system #10: When 56% or more of the number of bets have been on the Under in an NFL game total over the last 2-1/2 seasons, this majority group has been quite sharp, 56-45 ATS (55.4%).
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY UNDER ALL): NYJ-BAL, NE-CIN, IND-KC, CLE-LVR, PHI-DAL 

DK Betting Splits system #11: The magic mark for super majority on handle for betting Overs was 74% or higher, and this group performed miserably in ’23 and ‘24 with a record of 46-69 (42.6%). To me, this has been a long-standing belief, but when the OVER looks too obvious, it usually loses. On number of bets, this same super majority percentage produced a slightly improved 30-37 (44.8%) record, still poor though.
System Match (PLAY UNDER INSTEAD): NYG-DET 

This Week’s NFL Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOUSTON +6 (+2.2)
2. CLEVELAND +3.5 (+1.7)
3. ATLANTA +1.5 (+1.6)
4. ARIZONA +3 (+1.5)
5. MINNESOTA +6.5 (+1.1) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DETROIT -10.5 (+3.8)
2. SAN FRANCISCO -7 (+3.2)
3(tie). BALTIMORE -13.5 (+1.3)
KANSAS CITY -3.5 (+1.3)
5. PHILADELPHIA -3 (+1.0) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOUSTON +6 (+3.0)
2. CINCINNATI +8.5 (+1.5)
3. MINNESOTA +6.5 (+1.4)
4. PITTSBURGH +2.5 (+1.1)
5. TAMPA BAY +6.5 (+0.9) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SEATTLE -13.5 (+3.1)
2. LAS VEGAS -3.5 (+2.2)
3. DETROIT -10.5 (+1.4)
4. KANSAS CITY -3.5 (+1.1)
5. SAN FRANCISCO -7 (+0.9) 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SEA-TEN OVER 40.5 (+4.1)
2. PIT-CHI OVER 45.5 (+3.2)
3. CLE-LVR OVER 36.5 (+2.7)
4. NYJ-BAL OVER 44.5 (+1.7)
5. CAR-SF OVER 48.5 (+0.8) 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NYG-DET UNDER 50.5 (-2.1)
2. PHI-DAL UNDER 47.5 (-1.6)
3. ATL-NO UNDER 39.5 (-1.5)
4. TB-LAR UNDER 49.5 (-1.1)
5. NE-CIN UNDER 50.5 (-1.0) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ARIZONA +3 (+4.1)
2. CINCINNATI +8.5 (+3.0)
3. CLEVELAND +3.5 (+2.8)
4. ATLANTA +1.5 (+2.4)
5. HOUSTON +6 (+2.0) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DETROIT -10.5 (+3.4)
2. BALTIMORE -13.5 (+3.2)
3. SAN FRANCISCO -7 (+3.0)
4. KANSAS CITY -3.5 (+1.6)
5. GREEN BAY -6.5 (+0.5)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SEA-TEN OVER 40.5 (+4.6)
2. PIT-CHI OVER 45.5 (+2.6)
3. PHI-DAL OVER 47.5 (+1.9)
4(tie). NYJ-BAL OVER 44.5 (+1.4)
MIN-GB OVER 41.5 (+1.4) 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NYG-DET UNDER 50.5 (-2.2)
2(tie). JAX-ARI UNDER 47.5 (-1.1)
CAR-SF UNDER 48.5 (-1.1)
4. ATL-NO UNDER 39.5 (-0.7)
5. TB-LAR UNDER 49.5 (-0.4) 

These are the top head-to-head series NFL betting trends between teams from recent years’ action: 

(111) BUFFALO at (112) HOUSTON
* Under the total is 9-2 in the BUF-HOU series since 2003
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BUF-HOU (o/u at 43.5) 

(241) PITTSBURGH at (242) CHICAGO
* CHICAGO is 5-1 ATS versus Pittsburgh since 1998
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (-2.5 vs PIT) 

(243) NY JETS at (244) BALTIMORE
* BALTIMORE is 10-2 SU and ATS in games with NYJ since 1997
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-13.5 vs NYJ) 

(245) NY GIANTS at (246) DETROIT
* Road teams are 11-2 ATS in the last 13 of the NYG-DET series
Trend Match (PLAY): NY GIANTS (+10.5 at DET)

(247) NEW ENGLAND at (248) CINCINNATI
* NEW ENGLAND is 7-2 ATS in the last nine games with Cincinnati
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ENGLAND (-8.5 at CIN) 

(249) SEATTLE at (250) TENNESSEE
* Underdogs are 2-7 SU but 7-1-1 ATS in the SEA-TEN non-conference series since 1994
Trend Match (PLAY): TENNESSEE (+13.5 vs SEA) 

(251) MINNESOTA at (252) GREEN BAY
* Over the total is 8-2 in the MIN-GB divisional set in the last five seasons
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-GB (o/u at 40.5) 

(253) INDIANAPOLIS at (254) KANSAS CITY
* Under the total is 9-2 in the last 11 of the Colts-Chiefs AFC series
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): IND-KC (o/u at 50.5) 

(255) JACKSONVILLE at (256) ARIZONA
* ARIZONA has won all four meetings with JAX since 2009, both SU and ATS
Trend Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (+3 vs JAX) 

(257) CLEVELAND at (258) LAS VEGAS
* Under the total is 8-2 in the last 10 of the Browns-Raiders series
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-LVR (o/u at 36.5) 

(259) ATLANTA at (260) NEW ORLEANS
* Underdogs are 5-1 ATS in the last six of the ATL-NO divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+1.5 at NO) 

(261) PHILADELPHIA at (262) DALLAS
* Favorites are 9-1 SU and ATS in the last 10 meetings between the Eagles and the Cowboys at AT&T Stadium
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-3 at DAL) 

(263) TAMPA BAY at (264) LA RAMS
* The RAMS are 9-1-1 ATS in the last 11 matchups with NFC foe Tampa Bay
Trend Match (PLAY): LA RAMS (-6.5 vs TB)

(265) CAROLINA at (266) SAN FRANCISCO
* Favorites have won all five games between CAR and SF since 2014
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-7 vs CAR)

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