Week 13 NFL Betting Trends:
The following NFL betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NFL games of Week 13. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFL board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NFL betting trends and systems for this week’s NFL games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Teams averaging less than 19 PPG offensively and playing on the ROAD in post-Thanksgiving Day games have struggled to a 50-144 SU and 75-116 ATS (39.3%) record since 2015.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW ORLEANS (+6 at Miami), LAS VEGAS (+10 at LA Chargers)
* Detroit is on a 16-3-1 ATS (84.2%) run in the last 20 rematch opportunities
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-2.5 vs GB)
* CLEVELAND is 5-21 SU and 4-22 ATS when coming off a game having allowed <=14 points since 2014
Trend Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+4.5 vs SF)
* NFL teams that lost, scored 7 points or fewer, and had 10 or fewer first downs in a game have performed admirably as underdogs in the next contest, 22-39 SU but 39-22 ATS (63.9%) over the last decade-plus.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (+10.5 at SEA)
* In Sunday Night Football games pitting non-conference opponents (AFC vs. NFC), Under the total is 32-14 (69.6%) in the last 46.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): DEN-WAS (o/u at 43.5)
NFL Streaks Betting System #1: NFL teams that have lost their last three games ATS, all when favored, are on a 48-17 SU and 38-25-2 ATS (60.3%) run when favored in the next game as well.
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-3.5 at DAL)
* Rookie quarterbacks are 21-6-1 ATS (77.8%) in their last 28 Monday Night Football contests.
System Match (PLAY): NY GIANTS (+7 at NE)
#1 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen Effective Strength Ratings: NY JETS +2.5 vs ATL (projections have line at NYJ -1.8)
Team/Coach/QB Specific Situational NFL Betting Trends
These are some of the top situational NFL betting trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action:
(305) GREEN BAY (7-3) at (306) DETROIT (7-4)
* GREEN BAY is 22-12-1 ATS (64.7%) as an underdog since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY): GREEN BAY (+2.5 at DET)
* DETROIT is on a 20-12 SU and 22-9-1 ATS run vs. teams with a winning record
* DETROIT’s Jared Goff is 17-7 SU and 17-6-1 ATS in divisional games since 2021
* DETROIT is 26-12-1 ATS (68.4%) at home since 2021
Trends Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-2.5 vs GB)
* DETROIT is 12-1 Over the total when playing as a favorite of less than 3 points since 2017
* GREEN BAY’s Jordan Love is on 15-9 Over the total surge when his team is coming off a win
Trends Match (PLAY OVER): GB-DET (o/u at 48.5)
(307) KANSAS CITY (6-5) at (308) DALLAS (5-5)
* KANSAS CITY’s Andy Reid is on 12-4 Under the total streak vs. elite offenses scoring >=27 PPG
* DALLAS’ Dak Prescott is 12-2 Over the total with his team coming off a home win since 2022
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in KC-DAL (o/u at 52.5)
* KANSAS CITY is 57-42-1 ATS (57.6%) in road/neutral games since 2014
* KANSAS CITY’s Andy Reid is on an 18-4 SU and 15-6 ATS surge in non-conference games
* DALLAS is 21-18 SU and 14-24 ATS when playing on short rest (<7 days) since 2010
* DALLAS’s Dak Prescott owns a poor 23-30-1 SU and 18-36 ATS record vs. teams with winning records since 2016
* DALLAS’ Dak Prescott is on a 4-13-1 SU and 6-12 ATS skid as a single-digit underdog
Trends Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-3.5 at DAL)
(309) CINCINNATI (3-8) at (310) BALTIMORE (6-5)
* CINCINNATI is 57-68 SU but 74-48 ATS on the road dating back to 2011
* CINCINNATI’s Joe Burrow is on an 8-10 SU but 16-2 ATS run as an underdog of +3 to 7 points
* BALTIMORE’s Lamar Jackson is 14-5 SU but 6-13 ATS in the last 19 games vs. poor teams with a winning percentage <=33%
* BALTIMORE is 28-13 SU but 15-25 ATS as a divisional home favorite since 2010
Trends Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+7 at BAL)
(313) CHICAGO (8-3) at (314) PHILADELPHIA (8-3)
* CHICAGO is 34-44 ATS (43.6%) in non-divisional conference games since 2015
* CHICAGO is 32-48 ATS (40%) in road/neutral games since 2016
* CHICAGO is 32-45-1 ATS (41.6%) as an underdog since 2019
Trends Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+7 at PHI)
* PHILADELPHIA is 15-19 SU and 9-23 ATS when coming off a divisional loss since 2012
* PHILADELPHIA’s Nick Sirianni boasts a 26-3 SU and 20-8 ATS record as a single-digit home favorite since 2021
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of PHILADELPHIA (-7 vs CHI)
* PHILADELPHIA’s Nick Sirianni is 11-4 Under the total in the last 15 games when coming off an outright loss
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CHI-PHI (o/u at 44.5)
(461) HOUSTON (6-5) at (462) INDIANAPOLIS (8-3)
* HOUSTON is on an 18-58 SU and 27-48 ATS slide vs. elite teams with a point differential of >=+4.5 PPG since 2010
* INDIANAPOLIS is 17-19 SU and 25-11 ATS vs. elite teams with point differentials of >=+4.5 PPG since 2015
* INDIANAPOLIS is 25-23 SU and 34-13 ATS vs. elite defenses allowing <19 PPG since 2010
* INDIANAPOLIS’s Daniel Jones is 17-18 SU and 21-15 ATS with his team coming off an outright loss since 2020
Trends Match (PLAY): INDIANAPOLIS (-4.5 vs HOU)
* HOUSTON’s DeMeco Ryans is on 18-6 Under the total surge vs. teams with a winning record
* HOUSTON’s CJ Stroud is 15-9 Under the total in the last 24 games with his team coming off a win
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-IND (o/u at 44.5)
(463) ARIZONA (3-8) at (464) TAMPA BAY (6-5)
* ARIZONA is 34-23 ATS (59.6%) in road/neutral games since 2019
* ARIZONA is 34-22 ATS (60.7%) as an underdog since 2021
* TAMPA BAY’s Baker Mayfield is 15-10 SU but 7-18 ATS as a home favorite since 2020
* TAMPA BAY is 31-37 ATS (45.6%) when coming off a SU loss since 2016
* TAMPA BAY is 39-54 ATS (41.9%) at home since 2014
* TAMPA BAY is 39-52 ATS (42.9%) as a favorite since 2014
Trends Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (+3 at TB)
(465) JACKSONVILLE (7-4) at (466) TENNESSEE (1-10)
* JACKSONVILLE is 22-30 ATS (42.3%) as a favorite since 2018
* JACKSONVILLE’s Trevor Lawrence is on a 0-6 SU and ATS skid vs. teams with poor defenses allowing >=27 PPG
Trends Match (FADE): JACKSONVILLE (-6.5 at TEN)
* TENNESSEE is 21-17 SU and 23-14 ATS when coming off a home loss since 2015
* TENNESSEE is on an 8-38 SU and 12-33-1 ATS skid in Sunday games
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of TENNESSEE (+6.5 vs JAX)
* JACKSONVILLE is 44-36 Under the total (55%) since 2021
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): JAX-TEN (o/u at 42.5)
(467) LA RAMS (9-2) at (468) CAROLINA (6-6)
* LA RAMS’ Sean McVay is just 13-15 SU and 9-17 ATS in its last 27 November games
Trend Match (FADE): LA RAMS (-10.5 at CAR)
* CAROLINA is on a 3-17 SU and 6-14 ATS slide vs. elite teams with PPG differentials >=+4.5
* CAROLINA is 21-31 ATS (40.4%) at home since 2019
* CAROLINA is 23-34 ATS (40.4%) in non-divisional conference games since 2018
Trends Match (FADE): CAROLINA (+10.5 vs LAR)
* LA RAMS are 58-44 Under the total (56.9%) since 2020
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LAR-CAR (o/u at 44.5)
(469) NEW ORLEANS (2-9) at (470) MIAMI (4-7)
* NEW ORLEANS is 38-26 ATS (59.4%) in road/neutral games since 2018
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+6 at MIA)
* MIAMI is 31-19 ATS (62%) vs. non-conference foes since 2014
* MIAMI is on a 35-21 SU and 34-21 ATS surge vs. teams with a losing record since 2019
* MIAMI’s Tua Tagovalioa is 27-11 SU and 25-13 ATS (65.8%) in home games. The average line was -2.9, Team average PF: 24.8
* MIAMI’s Tua Tagovailoa is 12-4 SU and 11-4-1 ATS vs. teams with poor point differentials of <=-4.5 PPG since 2022
Trends Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-6 vs NO)
(471) ATLANTA (4-7) at (472) NY JETS (2-9)
* ATLANTA is 59-50 SU but 39-70 ATS as a single-digit favorite since 2012
* ATLANTA is on a 13-24 SU and 11-26 ATS skid on normal rest (7 days)
* ATLANTA’s Kirk Cousins is 10-1 SU and 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 games as a road favorite
* ATLANTA is 18-35 ATS (34%) vs. non-conference foes since 2014
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 3 FADES of ATLANTA (-2.5 at NYJ)
* NY JETS are 13-32 ATS (28.9%) vs. non-conference foes since 2015
Trend Match (FADE): NY JETS (+2.5 vs ATL)
(473) SAN FRANCISCO (8-4) at (474) CLEVELAND (3-8)
* SAN FRANCISCO is 19-30 ATS (38.8%) vs. non-conference foes since 2014
* SAN FRANCISCO’s Brock Purdy is just 10-8 SU and 6-12 ATS in last 18 vs. teams with lesser records
* SAN FRANCISCO’s Kyle Shanahan is on a 4-7 SU and 0-11 ATS skid when coming off a home win
* SAN FRANCISCO’s Kyle Shanahan is 15-3 SU and ATS in its last 18 games vs. poor offensive teams scoring <19 PPG
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 3 FADES of SAN FRANCISCO (-4.5 at CLE)
* CLEVELAND is 36-45 ATS (44.4%) at home since 2015
* CLEVELAND is 5-21 SU and 4-22 ATS when coming off a game having allowed <=14 points since 2014
* CLEVELAND’s Kevin Stefanski is on a 7-21 SU and 6-20 ATS slide when coming off an outright win
Trends Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+4.5 vs SF)
* CLEVELAND’s Kevin Stefanski is 23-14 Over the total vs. teams with a winning record since 2020
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SF-CLE (o/u at 37.5)
(475) MINNESOTA (4-7) at (476) SEATTLE (8-3)
* MINNESOTA boasts an impressive 83-61 SU and 89-54-1 ATS record when playing on normal rest (7 days) since 2011
* MINNESOTA is 34-28 ATS (54.8%) when coming off a SU loss since 2014
* SEATTLE’s Sam Darnold is 12-11 SU and 8-14-1 ATS in the last 23 starts vs. teams with losing records
* SEATTLE is 46-53-1 ATS (46.5%) when coming off a SU win since 2015
Trends Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (+10.5 at SEA)
* MINNESOTA is 64-50 Over the total (56.1%) since 2019
* MINNESOTA’s Kevin O’Connell is 18-9 Over the total vs. teams with a winning record since 2022
* SEATTLE’s Sam Darnold is 28-15 Under the total when his team plays with normal rest (7 days) since 2019
Trends Match: 2 PLAYS OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in MIN-SEA (o/u at 41.5)
(477) BUFFALO (7-4) at (478) PITTSBURGH (6-5)
* BUFFALO is 42-30 ATS (58.3%) in non-divisional conference games since 2017
* BUFFALO is 32-27 ATS (54.2%) in road/neutral games since 2019
Trends Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (-3.5 at PIT)
* PITTSBURGH’s Mike Tomlin is on a 32-27 SU and 38-18-1 ATS run as a single-digit underdog
* PITTSBURGH is 26-8 SU and 25-9 ATS coming off a game allowing 30+ points since 2013
* PITTSBURGH is 19-13 SU and 20-11-1 ATS vs. teams with better records since 2013
Trends Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (+3.5 vs BUF)
* PITTSBURGH is 107-75 Under the total (58.8%) since 2015
* PITTSBURGH’s Aaron Rodgers is 15-7 Under the total vs. teams with a better record since 2014
* BUFFALO’s Sean McDermott is 28-16 Under the total when coming off an outright loss since 2017
* BUFFALO’s Josh Allen is 38-22 Under the total on the road since 2018
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): BUF-PIT (o/u at 47.5)
(479) LAS VEGAS (2-9) at (480) LA CHARGERS (7-4)
* LAS VEGAS is 23-5 Under the total as a divisional road underdog since 2015
* LA CHARGERS are on 29-13 Under the total surge in Sunday games
* LA CHARGERS are 13-2 Under the total as a divisional home favorite since 2018
* LA CHARGERS’ Justin Herbert is on 16-5 Under the total streak when his team is playing on normal rest (7 days)
* LA CHARGERS’ Justin Herbert is 12-5 Over the total in the last 17 games when his team is coming off a non-divisional AFC loss
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 4 PLAYS UNDER in LVR-LAC (o/u at 41.5)
* LAS VEGAS’ Geno Smith is 8-13 SU but 12-9 ATS with his team coming off a double-digit loss since 2013
* LAS VEGAS is 38-53 ATS (41.8%) when coming off a SU loss since 2015
* LAS VEGAS is 38-53 ATS (41.8%) in road/neutral games since 2015
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 2 FADES of LAS VEGAS (+10 at LAC)
* LA CHARGERS are 39-52-1 ATS (42.9%) at home since 2014
* LA CHARGERS’ Justin Herbert is 9-1 SU and 8-1-1 ATS with his team coming off a double-digit loss since 2021
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of LA CHARGERS (-10 vs LVR)
(481) DENVER (9-2) at (482) WASHINGTON (3-8)
* DENVER is 26-38 ATS (40.6%) as a favorite since 2017
Trend Match (FADE): DENVER (-6.5 at WAS)
* DENVER is 106-70 Under the total (60.2%) since 2015
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DEN-WAS (o/u at 43.5)
* WASHINGTON is 21-39 ATS (35%) when coming off a SU loss since 2019
* WASHINGTON’s Dan Quinn is 1-10 SU and 0-11 ATS when coming off a non-conference defeat since 2016
* WASHINGTON’s Dan Quinn is 7-17 SU and 6-17 ATS vs. AFC since 2016
Trends Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+6.5 vs DEN)
(483) NY GIANTS (2-10) at (484) NEW ENGLAND (10-2)
* NY GIANTS are 60-35 Under the total (63.2%) since 2020
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYG-NE (o/u at 46.5)
* NEW ENGLAND is 34-6 SU and 30-10 ATS when riding a three-game or more outright winning streak since 2016
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ENGLAND (-7 vs NYG)
NFL Late-Season Betting Systems
NFL PTD Betting System #1 – There have been a couple of sweet line range spots in which to bet late regular-season home favorites in post-Thanksgiving action recently. When they’ve been -1 to -2.5, they’ve gone 54-38 SU and 52-39 ATS (57.1%) since 2015. When they’ve been in the -3.5 to -7 line range, they’ve gone 137-77 SU and 107-66 ATS (61.8%), since New Year’s 2017.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (-2.5 vs. Green Bay), BALTIMORE (-7 vs. Cincinnati), PHILADELPHIA (-7 vs. Chicago), INDIANAPOLIS (-4.5 vs. Houston), TAMPA BAY (-2.5 vs. Arizona), MIAMI (-6 vs. New Orleans)
NFL PTD Betting System #2 – On late-season totals, there has been a PTD opportunity in games with the lowest numbers, as those games with posted totals of 40 or less have gone Over at a 78-63 (55.3%) rate since 2015.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): ATL-NYJ (o/u at 39.5), SF-CLE (o/u at 39.5)
NFL PTD Betting System #3 – There has been a dangerous line range for backing bigger home favorites in the non-Sunday late-season games recently, as home favorites of more than a TD (-7.5 or more) have gone 27-6 SU but just 11-21 ATS (34.4%) since 2015.
System Match (FADE): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR NEW ENGLAND vs NYG, -7 currently
NFL PTD Betting System #4 – There has been a sweet spot for betting late-season road favorites in the non-Sunday late-season games recently, and that is in the -3 to -9.5 line range, as these PTD chalk options are 36-6 SU and 27-14 ATS (65.9%) since 2017.
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-3.5 at Dallas)
NFL PTD Betting System #6 – Losing to a non-divisional conference foe at home can prove to be a negative momentum builder for NFL PTD teams, especially when hitting the road as an underdog the next week, as these teams have gone just 16-57 SU and 26-47 ATS (35.6%) in the follow-up game since 2015.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (+7 at Baltimore), LAS VEGAS (+10 at LA Chargers)
NFL PTD Betting System #7 – NFL PTD teams coming off close upset losses (<=10-point margin) on the road have gone 51-33 SU and 49-34 ATS (59%) in the follow-up game.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-7 vs. Chicago), BUFFALO (-3.5 at Pittsburgh)
NFL PTD Betting System #9 – NFL PTD teams scoring less than 17 points in a road loss have been big Under teams in the follow-up game, particularly as home underdogs, as they are 63-44 Under the total (58.9%) in this situation dating back to 2015.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): ATL-NYJ (o/u at 39.5)
NFL PTD Betting System #10 – NFL PTD teams allowing 30 points or more in a road loss have been big Under teams in the follow-up game, going 129-90 Under the total (58.9%) in the next contest since ’16.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): BUF-PIT (o/u at 47.5), ARI-TB (o/u at 44.5), NYG-NE (o/u at 46.5)
NFL PTD Betting System #12 – Another winning streak killer comes in PTD games when teams on winning streaks of 4 games or more hit the road and aren’t favored by a big amount (>7 points) or are underdogs. These teams have gone 32-42 SU and 27-46 ATS (37%) dating back to 2016.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DENVER (-6.5 at Washington), CHICAGO (+7 at Philadelphia)
NFL PTD Betting System #15 – Concerning late-season won-lost records, in PTD games where there is only a one-win difference between the opponents, and oddsmakers have installed the team with the better record as a favorite of 3 points or more, that favored team is 71-16 SU and 56-29 ATS (65.9%) since 2017.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY (-3.5 at Dallas), BUFFALO (-3.5 at Pittsburgh)
NFL PTD Betting System #16 – Again on late season won-lost records, in PTD games where there is win advantage of at least four season wins for the home team and they are favored but not by more than 7-points, these hosts boast an incredible 39-6 SU and 34-10 ATS (77.3%) record since Christmas ’16, and are currently riding a 14-game SU and ATS winning streak!
System Match (PLAY): NEW ENGLAND (-7 vs NYG)
NFL PTD Betting System #17 – Not surprisingly, some of the worst teams to back late in the season are those that can’t score well and are on the road, as teams averaging less than 19 PPG offensively and playing on the road in PTD games have struggled to a 50-144 SU and 75-116 ATS (39.3%) record since 2015.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW ORLEANS (+6 at Miami), LAS VEGAS (+10 at LA Chargers)
NFL PTD Betting System #18 – The truly elite teams have actually been the most unreliable for bettors to back, as teams boasting an 83% or better won-lost record are 61-42 SU but 39-62 ATS (38.6%) in PTD games since 2015.
System Match (FADE): NEW ENGLAND (-7 vs NYG)
NFL Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NFL games and detail the results of the follow-up game for these teams.
DON’T DISMISS TEAMS OFF DREADFUL OFFENSIVE OUTINGS
NFL teams that lost, scored 7 points or fewer, and had 10 or fewer first downs in a game have performed admirably as underdogs in the next contest, 22-39 SU but 39-22 ATS (63.9%) over the last decade-plus.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (+10.5 at SEA)
TNF, SNF, and MNF Team Trends and Systems for the NFL
The following trends and systems come from a log of all the Thursday night (TNF), Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night (MNF) games since the start of the 2019 season. Only Thursday night games were included in the TNF study, not the day games played on Thanksgiving. The Sunday night games only included those games played on Sunday night, not all of the games covered by the NBC SNF crew, which also included some Wednesday and Saturday contests. The games analyzed were only regular-season games.
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
· There has been some interesting data regarding the first and second half of the season in terms of Thursday night games. In the first half of the season, or Weeks 1-8, home teams have gone 30-24 SU but 19-33-2 ATS (36.5%) in the last 54. Going back even further, since 2016, TNF home teams in Weeks 9 and later are 47-28 SU and 44-28-3 ATS (61.1%). There seems to be a fundamental edge to playing at home with less rest late in the season.
System Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-7 vs CIN)
· NFL Home Favorites of 7 points or more are on a 34-3 SU and 22-13-2 ATS (62.9%) run on Thursday games since the start of the 2014 season.
System Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-7 vs CIN)
· There has been a wild trend that has developed over the last 4+ seasons regarding TNF road teams coming off a home loss the prior Sunday, as they have rebounded incredibly with a 21-24 SU and 28-16-1 ATS (63.6%) record.
System Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+7 at BAL)
· More on totals, there have been 34 TNF games since 2012 with a total of 50 or greater, they went Under at a 23-11 rate (67.6%).
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CIN-BAL (o/u at 51.5)
Under the total TNF Team Trend
Cincinnati 6-5-1 Under the total since 2014
Trend Match (SLIGHT PLAY UNDER): CIN-BAL (o/u at 51.5)
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
· Home underdogs have been competitive on Sunday night football, going 20-26-1 SU and 26-19-2 ATS (57.8%) dating back to 2017.
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+6.5 vs DEN)
· In SNF games pitting non-conference opponents (AFC vs. NFC), home teams are just 28-26 SU and 21-31-2 ATS (40.4%) in the last 54. Under the total is also 32-14 (69.6%) in the last 46.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+6.5 vs DEN)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): DEN-WAS (o/u at 43.5)
· SNF teams coming off of losses have proven not ready for the big time, as they have gone just 14-29 SU and 15-28 ATS (34.9%) in their last 43 tries against teams off a win.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+6.5 vs DEN)
· Momentum has been big for hosts overall, as home teams on SNF coming off a loss in their last games are just 16-24-1 SU and 17-23-1 ATS (42.5%) in their last 41, but those coming off a win are on a current 31-10 SU and 25-16 ATS (61%) surge.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+6.5 vs DEN)
· More on unusual stat angles, the best defensive teams in the league, or those allowing less than 19 PPG, have gone just 18-27-1 SU and 20-26 ATS (43.5%) against worse defenses on SNF since ’19.
System Match (FADE): DENVER (-6.5 at WAS)
Bad SNF Team Trend
Denver 2-8 SU and ATS skid
Trend Match (FADE): DENVER (-6.5 at WAS)
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
· Laying 7 points or more has not been a good strategy on MNF, as favorites of 7 points or more are 50-15 SU but just 25-38-2 ATS (39.7%) since 2012.
System Match (FADE): NEW ENGLAND (-7 vs NYG)
· In MNF games pitting non-conference opponents (AFC vs. NFC), home teams are 30-31 SU but 19-40-2 ATS (32.2%) in the last 61.
System Match (FADE): NEW ENGLAND (-7 vs NYG)
· Won/lost records have mattered on MNF, as teams with the better record are 48-42 SU but just 35-53-2 ATS (39.8%) in the last 90 MNF games not matching teams with identical records.
System Match (FADE): NEW ENGLAND (-7 vs NYG)
Bad MNF Team Trend
NY Giants 1-9 SU and 4-6 ATS
Trend Match (FADE): NY GIANTS (+7 at NE)
Under the total MNF Team Trend
New England 7-2 Under surge
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYG-NE (o/u at 46.5)
If you’ve picked up from each of the team trends sections that certain teams are consistently doing well or poorly, or are going Over or Under regularly, you’re right. Here are some overall primetime game trends that you’re going to want to consider:
Good PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trend
Baltimore 29-14 SU and 26-16-1 ATS in the last 43
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-7 vs CIN)
Bad PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trends
Denver 11-21 SU and 11-19-2 ATS in the last 32
Trend Match (FADE): DENVER (-6.5 at WAS)
NY Giants 5-25 SU in the last 30 (13-17 ATS)
Trend Match (FADE): NY GIANTS (+7 at NE)
Washington 14-26 and 13-26-1 ATS in primetime since 2013
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+6.5 vs DEN)
Under the total PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trend
Denver 19-6 Under since 2017
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DEN-WAS (o/u at 43.5)
NFL Streaks Provide Some Advantages for Bettors
The following betting systems focus on winning and losing streaks. Below are the ones that have qualifying plays for this week’s action.
NFL Streaks Betting System #1: NFL teams that have lost their last three games ATS, all when favored, are on a 48-17 SU and 38-25-2 ATS (60.3%) run when favored in the next game as well.
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-3.5 at DAL)
NFL Streaks Betting System #2: NFL teams that have won their last three games outright, with the first being in upset fashion, then being favored in the latter games, are 92-22 SU and 72-42 ATS (63.2%) in the follow-up game when favored by 3 points or more.
System Match (PLAY): NEW ENGLAND (-7 vs NYG)
NFL Streaks Betting System #3: NFL teams that have lost their last five ATS while being outscored by 50 points or more in that stretch are 28-55 SU but 51-31-1 ATS (62.2%) since 2007.
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+6.5 vs DEN)
NFL Streaks Betting System #4: NFL teams that have won their last three games ATS with a point margin of +10 or less in that stretch have gone just 17-47 SU and 18-42-4 ATS (30%) in game #4 since ’03.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TENNESSEE (+6.5 vs JAX), NY GIANTS (+7 at NE)
NFL Streaks Betting System #5: NFL teams that have won their last four games outright while outscoring opponents by fewer than 30 total points in that span have gone 63-15 SU and 50-26-2 ATS (65.8%) in the next game when favored.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DENVER (-6.5 at WAS), NEW ENGLAND (-7 vs NYG)
NFL Streaks Betting System #7: NFL road teams that have lost their last three games outright and are facing a team with more than a 50% winning percentage better than them are 13-80 SU but 61-32 ATS (65.6%) as underdogs of 5.5 points or more since 2006.
System Match (PLAY): NY GIANTS (+7 at NE)
NFL Streaks Betting System #9: NFL teams that have lost their last three games ATS are 22-66 SU but 52-34-2 ATS (60.5%) when playing as road dogs to non-divisional conference foes since 2003.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ARIZONA (+3 at TB), MINNESOTA (+10.5 at SEA)
NFL Streaks Betting System #10: NFL teams that have lost their last four games ATS are 26-27 SU but 32-19-2 ATS (62.7%) in their last 53 games versus non-conference foes.
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+6.5 vs DEN)
NFL Streaks Betting System #12: NFL teams that have lost at least their last three games outright have gone 64-40 SU but 42-58-4 ATS (42%) when favored by 3 points or more since 2013.
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-3 vs ARI)
NFL Streaks Betting System #13: NFL teams that have lost at least their last five games outright have gone 13-67 SU but 52-27-1 ATS (65.8%) as double-digit road underdogs since 2006.
System Match (PLAY): LAS VEGAS (+10 at LAC)
NFL Streaks Betting System #14: NFL teams playing on Monday Night Football after losing at least their last five games outright have gone 7-14 SU but 16-5 ATS (76.2%) in their last 21 tries.
System Match (PLAY): NY GIANTS (+7 at NE)
NFL Streaks Betting System #15: NFL teams playing at home on Thursdays after winning at least their last four games outright have kept the momentum going with an 18-1 SU and 13-5-1 ATS (72.2%) record in their last 19 tries.
System Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-7 vs CIN)
Pre-Bye Week NFL Betting Trends and Systems
The following systems and trends are from the long-running article series detailing pre-bye week performance in the NFL. These records are from only in-season bye weeks and do not include playoffs or preseason.
Pre-bye week system #3
Play on favorites of 7 points or more heading into their bye week. (Record: 79-6-1 SU and 57-27-2 ATS since ’02, 67.9%, +27.3 units, 32.5% ROI, Grade 72)
System Match (PLAY): NEW ENGLAND (-7 vs NYG)
Pre-bye week system #4
Play on home teams in their pre-bye week game when it comes Week 8 or later on the NFL annual schedule. (Record: 77-41-2 ATS since 2010, 65.3%, +31.9 units, 27% ROI, Grade 68)
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CAROLINA (+10.5 vs LAR), NEW ENGLAND (-7 vs NYG)
Pre-bye week system #5
Play on home underdogs heading into their bye week. (Record: 38-24-3 ATS since ’15, 61.3%, +11.6 units, 18.7% ROI, Grade 62)
System Match (PLAY): CAROLINA (+10.5 vs LAR)
Pre-bye week system #6
Play on any road team heading into their bye week on Monday Night. (Record: 26-19 SU and 29-14-2 ATS since 1996, 67.4%, +13.6 units, 31.6% ROI, Grade 67)
System Match (PLAY): NY GIANTS (+7 at NE)
Pre-bye week system #8
Play on any team heading into their bye week when favored on the road/neutral vs. a non-conference foe (Record: 32-8-1 SU and 27-13-1 ATS since 2009, 67.5%, +12.7 units, 31.8% ROI, Grade 67)
System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-4.5 at CLE)
Pre-bye week system #9
Play against any teams heading into their bye week and playing as underdogs of more than 7 points (Record: 44-7 SU and 35-15-1 ATS since ’08, 70%, +18.5 units, 37% ROI, Grade 70)
System Match (FADE): CAROLINA (+10.5 vs LAR)
*WATCH FOR NY GIANTS at NE, +7 CURRENTLY*
* Please note that the systems above and all of the following trends only include bye week games from the regular season schedule, not playoffs.
Carolina Panthers Pre-Bye Week Game – 11/30 vs. Los Angeles Rams
· The Panthers are on a stretch of 9-3 ATS in pre-bye week games including a win over the Giants last year in London
· Carolina is on a 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS streak in home pre-bye week games, scoring 30.8 PPG
Trends Match (PLAY): CAROLINA (+10.5 vs LAR)
New England Patriots Pre-Bye Week Game – Mon 12/1 vs. New York Giants
·The Patriots are on a 6-2 Under the total run in pre-bye week games, scoring just 16.4 PPG
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYG-NE (o/u at 46.5)
· New England has 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in its last seven pre-bye week games vs. NFC foes
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ENGLAND (-7 vs NYG)
New York Giants Pre-Bye Week Game – Mon 12/1 at New England Patriots
· The Giants are on an 0-4 SU and ATS skid in their last four pre-bye week road/neutral games
Trend Match (FADE): NY GIANTS (+7 at NE)
· The Giants are 8-1 Under the total in their last nine pre-bye week games
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYG-NE (o/u at 46.5)
San Francisco 49ers Pre-Bye Week Game – 11/30 at Cleveland Browns
· San Francisco has gone a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS since 1997 as a pre-week road favorite, outscoring opponents 34.7-16.1
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-4.5 at CLE)
· The 49ers have lost their last three pre-bye week games versus AFC foes against the spread
Trend Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (-4.5 at CLE)
Post Bye Week NFL Betting Trends and Systems
The following NFL betting trends and systems are from the long-running article series detailing pre- and post-bye week performance in the NFL. These records are from only in-season bye weeks and do not include playoffs or preseason
Post-bye week system #1:
Play on road favorites coming out of their bye week. (Record: 118-49 SU and 97-66-4 ATS since 1999, 59.5%, +24.4 units, 15% ROI, Grade 63)
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (-6.5 at WAS)
Post-bye week road favorite subsystems:
– vs. non-conference opponents. (Record: 36-16-3 ATS since 2000, 69.2%, +18.4 units, 35.4% ROI, Grade 65)
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (-6.5 at WAS)
Post-bye week system #2:
Play against home teams coming out of their bye week against non-conference opponents. (Record: 26-24 SU and 31-17-2 ATS since 2015, 64.6%, +12.3 units, 25.6% ROI, Grade 66)
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI (-6 vs NO), WASHINGTON (+6.5 vs DEN)
Post-bye week system #3:
Play against home underdogs coming out of their bye week. (Record: 48-19 SU and 37-28-2 ATS since ’99, 56.9%, +6.2 units, 9.5% ROI, Grade 59)
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+6.5 vs DEN)
Post-bye week system #5:
Play against double-digit favorites coming off their bye week. (Record: 19-9-1 ATS since 2014, 67.9%, +9.1 units, 32.5% ROI, Grade 62)
System Match (FADE): LA CHARGERS (-10 vs LVR)
Post-bye week system #7:
Play Under the total with road teams coming off their bye week (Record: 45-25-1 since 2021, 64.3%, +17.5 units, 25% ROI, Grade 65)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): DEN-WAS (o/u at 43.5)
Post-bye week system #9:
Play Under the total in games where a team is coming out of its bye week after losing in upset fashion before the bye. (Record: 34-18-1 Under since 1992, 65.4%, +14.3 units, 27.5% ROI, Grade 62)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): LVR-LAC (o/u at 41.5)
Post-bye week system #10:
Play Under the total in games where a team is coming out of its bye week after yielding 35+ points before the bye. (Record: 24-14-1 Under since 2014, 63.2%, +8.6 units, 22.6% ROI, Grade 62)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): LVR-LAC (o/u at 41.5)
** Please note that the systems above and all of the following trends only include bye week games from the regular season schedule, not playoffs.
Denver Broncos Post-Bye Week Game: 11/30 at Washington Commanders
· Denver has gone 19-7 SU and 20-6 ATS in post-bye week games since 2000
Trend Match (PLAY): DENVER (-6.5 at WAS)
· The Broncos are on a 12-4-1 Under the total surge in post-bye week games
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DEN-WAS (o/u at 43.5)
Los Angeles Chargers Post-Bye Week Game: 11/30 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
· The Chargers have gone 2-6 ATS in their last eight post-bye week home contests
· The Chargers are on a 5-7 SU and 4-8 ATS skid in their last 12 post-bye week divisional games but did win last year
Trends Match (FADE): LA CHARGERS (-10 vs LVR)
Miami Dolphins Post-Bye Week Game: 11/30 vs. New Orleans Saints
· Miami is on a 6-2 ATS run in post-bye week games vs. NFC foes since 2003
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-6 vs NO)
· The Dolphins are 7-1 Under the total in their last eight post-bye week games
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NO-MIA (o/u at 41.5)
Washington Commanders Post-Bye Week Game: 11/30 vs. Denver Broncos
· Washington is just 5-12 SU and 3-14 ATS in its last 17 post-bye week games
· The Redskins are on an 0-5 ATS losing streak in post-bye week games as favorites
Trends Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+6.5 vs DEN)
Handicapping NFL Rematch Games
The following trends and betting systems come from same season rematch data over the last 14 seasons
Best NFL rematch teams lately
Detroit: 16-3-1 ATS run in rematches
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-2.5 vs GB)
Worst NFL road rematch teams lately
Las Vegas: 4-10 SU and 5-9 ATS in the last 14 road rematches
Trend Match (FADE): LAS VEGAS (+10 at LAC)
Best NFL revenge teams lately
Detroit: current 9-1 ATS run in revenge opportunities
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-2.5 vs GB)
Low-scoring rematch teams
Las Vegas: 15-3 Under in the last 18 road rematches, scoring 15.6 PPG
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LVR-LAC (o/u at 41.5)
NFL Rookie/Retread Coaching Systems
This material is from the VSiN piece entitled Analyzing the New NFL Head Coaches for 2025 detailing systems that apply to rookie coaches Ben Johnson (Chicago), Brian Schottenheimer (Dallas), Liam Coen (Jacksonville), Kellen Moore (New Orleans), and Aaron Glenn (NY Jets) as well as re-tread coaches Pete Carroll (Las Vegas) and Mike Vrabel (New England).
Rookie Coach Systems
(Games this week: KC-DAL(+3.5), CHI(+7)-PHI, JAX(-6.5)-TEN, NO(+6)-MIA, ATL-NYJ(+2.5))
– Rookie head coaches haven’t been good at covering point spreads at home over the last decade – 158-185-11 ATS (46.1%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): DALLAS, NY JETS
– Rookie head coaches have won as big favorites, but covering point spreads has been a different story. In fact, as favorites of 6 points or more since 2015, rookie head coaches are 52-12 SU, good for 81.3% outright, but have gone just 25-37-2 ATS, a covering rate of just 40.3%. Going into 2025, they are on a 7-19-1 ATS (26.9%) skid in this regard.
System Match (FADE): JACKSONVILLE
– In a trend that seems to make sense as far as familiarity is concerned, the more familiar the opponent, the less successful rookie head coaches have been. Since 2015: Divisional games 117-134-4 ATS (46.6%).
System Match (FADE): JACKSONVILLE
– After wins, rookie coaches have done measurably worse in that same time frame, 52-77-7 ATS (40.3%) in their L136.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DALLAS, CHICAGO, JACKSONVILLE
Retread Coach Systems
(Games this week: LVR(+10)-LAC, NYG-NE(-7))
– Retread head coaches have been brutal bets as favorites in their first seasons with a new franchise. As favorites since 2015, they’ve gone 98-69 SU but just 64-93-11 ATS, for 40.8%!
System Match (FADE): NEW ENGLAND
– The ATS results by game type are almost identical for the Division (48.6%) and Conference (47.9%) scenarios for retrend coaches in terms of opponents. However, in non-conference games, they have really struggled, going 45-62 ATS (42.1%) over the last decade, including 18-32 ATS (36%) over the last 3+ seasons.
System Match (FADE): NEW ENGLAND
– There seems to be a noteworthy trend of momentum that comes with these retread head coaches. Since ’15, when coming off a win or tie, these coaches have posted a modest 85-80 ATS (51.5%) record in their first seasons, including 35-27 ATS (56.5%) since mid-2022. When coming off a loss, the record has been an ugly 140-178 ATS (44%) in that same time span.
System Match (PLAY): NEW ENGLAND
System Match (FADE): LAS VEGAS
– Retread coaches have been solid in revenge scenarios over the last decade, going 25-18 ATS (58.1%) when having lost an earlier-season game against an opponent. This trend is on a 14-4 ATS run heading into 2025.
System Match (PLAY): LAS VEGAS
NFL Rookie Quarterback Systems
These systems take into account rookie quarterback records in their first seasons. They include game logs of any rookie who started seven or more games in that first season. The starters this week include Cam Ward (Tennessee), Shedeur Sanders (Cleveland), JJ McCarthy (Minnesota), Tyler Shough (NO Saints), and Jaxson Dart (NY Giants).
(Games this week: JAX-TEN(+6.5), SF-CLE(+4.5), MIN(+10.5)-SEA, NO(+6)-MIA, NYG(+7)-NE)
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #4 – Rookie quarterbacks have experienced major late-season woes
For as much as rookie QBs have struggled early in recent years, over the long haul, or since 2008, the part of the season in which they have struggled worst is in weeks 10-15, as they are just 105-167 SU and 117-144-11 ATS (44.8%) in that time span.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TENNESSEE, CLEVELAND, MINNESOTA, NEW ORLEANS, NY GIANTS
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Rookie quarterbacks have struggled on the road, particularly late in the season
The results of rookie quarterbacks on the road lately are startling. Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie starters have combined for a record of 144-131 ATS (52.4%) in home games but just 127-152 ATS (45.5%) in road/neutral games. In later season road games, Week 10-EOY, they are just 41-109 SU and 63-85-2 ATS (42.6%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA, NEW ORLEANS, NY GIANTS
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #6 – Don’t fall for the big underdog point spreads with rookie quarterbacks
Since 2015, rookie starting quarterbacks facing underdog lines of 6.5 points or more have won just 24 games, going 24-133 SU and 64-89-4 ATS (41.8%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): TENNESSEE, MINNESOTA, NY GIANTS
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #10 – By type of opponent, divisional matchups have been toughest for rookie starting quarterbacks
Since 2015, rookie QBs are just 52-115 SU and 70-92-4 ATS (43.2%) versus divisional opponents.
System Match (FADE): TENNESSEE
Since 2018, rookie QBs have fared well against non-divisional conference opponents, going 56-74 SU but 72-57 ATS (55.8%).
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA
Since 2022, rookie QBs are 21-20 SU and 24-14-3 ATS (63.2%) versus non-conference foes.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, NEW ORLEANS, NY GIANTS
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #11 – Losses have tended to snowball for rookie QBs
In their last 191 starts with their teams coming off outright losses, rookie QBs have gone just 60-131 SU and 87-101-2 ATS (46.3%). This trend dates back to 2018.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TENNESSEE, MINNESOTA, NEW ORLEANS, NY GIANTS
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #12 – Non-Sunday games have been a respite for rookie QBs
Rookie quarterbacks have fared reasonably well under the spotlight of non-Sunday games lately, going 22-23 SU and 29-14-2 ATS (67.4%) in their last 45 such tries. Moreover, they are 21-6-1 ATS (77.8%) in their last 28 Monday Night contests.
System Match (PLAY): NY GIANTS
NFL Veteran Quarterback Leading New Team Systems
These systems take into account veteran quarterback records in their first season with a new team. They include game logs of 32 different veteran QBs since 2004 who have played at least eight years in the NFL and started extensively on a previous team. This week, there are three different QBs finding themselves in a new place: Aaron Rodgers (Pittsburgh), Jacoby Brissett (Arizona), and Geno Smith (Las Vegas).
(Games this week: ARI(+3)-TB, BUF-PIT(+3.5), LVR(+10)-LAC)
NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Veteran quarterbacks thrive with their new teams at home
The results since 2005 of veteran quarterbacks playing with their new teams at home are quite impressive, as they have gone 131-94 SU and 117-97-11 ATS (54.7%).
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH
NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #6 – By type of opponent, non-divisional conference matchups have been best for veteran starting quarterbacks in their first season with new teams
Since 2005, veteran QBs in their first season with new teams have fared well against non-divisional conference opponents, going 89-80 SU and 92-75-2 ATS (55.1%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ARIZONA, PITTSBURGH
NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #11 – Veteran quarterbacks are consistent bets as smaller road underdogs with new teams
Dating back to 2006, veteran starting quarterbacks in their first seasons with new teams have gone 37-36 SU and 47-26 ATS (64.4%) when playing as road underdogs of +5.5 points or fewer.
System Match (PLAY): ARIZONA
Strategies Using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published in the 2025 NFL Betting Guide, Steve Makinen outlined 12 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of Tuesday at 5:00 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage.
Here is a quick tabulation on how DK bettors performed in the 2024 season:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 141-131 ATS (51.8%)
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 140-130 ATS (51.9%)
– Majority handle on totals: 143-133 (51.8%)
– Majority number of bets on totals: 147-131 (52.9%)
These are very good wrap up numbers by the standards that have been established in most of the similar reports I have done for other sports. Considering NFL betting is king, it’s nice to see recreational bettors like those at DraftKings holding their own. With that in mind, here are the systems with updated language and records heading into the 2025 season.
NFL DK Betting Splits system #1: Over the past two seasons, when more than 68% of the handle has been on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group is just 71-81 ATS (46.7%). The number for this “super-majority” in college football was closer to 75%. In other words, if you see over 2/3 of the handle backing one side in an NFL game this season, it’s consistently profitable to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT, DALLAS, CINCINNATI, CHICAGO, TAMPA BAY, MIAMI, ATLANTA, SEATTLE, BUFFALO, LAS VEGAS
NFL DK Betting Splits system #2: In NFL divisional games of 2022-24, DK majority handle bettors have been awful, as this majority group is just 117-148 ATS (44.2%). With the obvious generality that public bettors love favorites, it’s clear that they don’t value the stakes of these rivalry games and what they mean for the competitors.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT, CINCINNATI, INDIANAPOLIS, JACKSONVILLE, LAS VEGAS
NFL DK Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2 above, in that same time span, when the majority number of bets staked its side in an NFL divisional game, this majority group is just 118-150 ATS (44%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT, CINCINNATI, INDIANAPOLIS, JACKSONVILLE, LA CHARGERS
NFL DK Betting Splits system #4: In NFL non-conference games of 2023 and 2024, DK majority number of bets groups were actually quite sharp, going 79-64 ATS (55.2%). This is obviously quite the opposite performance level of #3 above, and unfortunately for bettors, there are two fewer non-conference tilts than divisional contests for each team on the schedule every year. Of course, if strategically playing both spots according to these systems, every game in either situation is an opportunity.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): DALLAS, ATLANTA, SAN FRANCISCO, DENVER, NY GIANTS
NFL DK Betting Splits system #5: Since the start of the 2023 season, when the majority number of bets have backed road favorites for an ATS wager, these majority groups are actually 100-87 ATS (53.5%). I will tell you that there are only 15 games or fewer each year when this group will actually back the home dog. Watch this one closely, as backing road favorites in the NFL has never been a consistent winning strategy.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): JACKSONVILLE, LA RAMS, ATLANTA, SAN FRANCISCO, BUFFALO, DENVER
NFL DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority handle was on road underdogs for an ATS wager over the last two years, these majority groups have surprisingly struggled, 27-36 ATS (42.9%). This goes against the logic I have discovered in other sports, which says that when the public goes “against the grain,” they can do well. Quite the opposite here. As you can see, it is rare, just 63 games in two full seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI, CHICAGO, LAS VEGAS
NFL DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle and number of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games over the last two seasons, these majority groups are just 100-114 ATS (46.7%) and 101-111 ATS (47.6%), respectively. This set of games includes all the Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests. These numbers were improved along with the overall majority figures last year, but I wouldn’t expect that to continue.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI, DENVER
NFL DK Betting Splits system #8: In another rare winning record, when the majority number of bets has backed the team with fewer season wins in a 2023 or 2024 NFL game for an ATS wager, this majority group was 46-38 ATS (54.8%). This has proven to be a situation in which going against the grain pays off.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): DALLAS, CINCINNATI, NY GIANTS
DK Betting Splits system #9: The average NFL total in 2023 was 43.0. Last year, it ballooned back up to 44.6. In games where the totals reached 46.5 or higher and odds makers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, majority number of bettors have gauged these games incredibly well the last two years, going 96-72 ATS (60.8%)! We’ll see how that trend holds in 2025.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – GB-DET, KC-DAL, BUF-PIT, NYG-NE
UNDER – CIN-BAL
DK Betting Splits system #10: When 56% or more of the number of bets have been on the Under in an NFL game total over the last 2-1/2 seasons, this majority group has been quite sharp, 56-45 ATS (55.4%). This number for a “super-majority” in the NFL is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total. Incidentally, the same majority figure for handle has also produced a 74-62 (54.4%) record.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY UNDER ALL): HOU-IND, JAX-TEN, DEN-WAS
DK Betting Splits system #11: The magic mark for super majority on handle for betting Overs was 74% or higher, and this group performed miserably in ’23 and ‘24 with a record of 46-69 (42.6%). To me, this has been a long-standing belief, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses. On nthe umber of bets, this same super majority percentage produced a slightly improved 30-37 (44.8%) record, still poor though.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL INSTEAD): DET-GB, LAR-CAR
DK Betting Splits system #12: Call this one the Over trap, but when a super-majority (>=64%) of handle has been on the Over, but DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week, this majority group has lost big, going just 70-92 (43.2%) over the past three seasons. Almost as if they were trying to bait more people into taking the Over. This is a classic example of where those behind the counter are smarter than those trying to cash the tickets.
System Match (PLAY UNDER INSTEAD): LAR-CAR
This Week’s NFL Strength Ratings
The following NFL betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NY JETS +2.5 (+2.1)
2. HOUSTON +4.5 (+1.2)
3. PITTSBURGH +3.5 (+0.9)
4. CAROLINA +10.5 (+0.5)
5. DALLAS +3.5 (+0.3)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). JACKSONVILLE -6.5 (+1.9)
MIAMI -6 (+1.9)
3. PHILADELPHIA -7 (+1.8)
4. BALTIMORE -7 (+1.3)
5. DENVER -6.5 (+1.2)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NY JETS +2.5 (+4.3)
2. PITTSBURGH +3.5 (+2.5)
3. TENNESSEE +6.5 (+2.4)
4(tie). DALLAS +3.5 (+1.0)
WASHINGTON +6.5 (+1.0)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA RAMS -10.5 (+3.6)
2. LA CHARGERS -10 (+2.4)
3. NEW ENGLAND -7 (+1.9)
4(tie). TAMPA BAY -3 (+0.6)
SAN FRANCISCO -4.5 (+0.6)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SF-CLE OVER 37.5 (+5.6)
2. ATL-NYJ OVER 39.5 (+2.9)
3. MIN-SEA OVER 41.5 (+2.7)
4. CHI-PHI OVER 44.5 (+2.4)
5. LAR-CAR OVER 44.5 (+1.3)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GB-DET UNDER 48.5 (-3.1)
2. KC-DAL UNDER 52.5 (-1.3)
3. BUF-PIT UNDER 47.5 (-0.6)
4(tie). CIN-BAL UNDER 51.5 (-0.3)
DEN-WAS UNDER 43.5 (-0.3)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW ORLEANS +6 (+3.0)
2. WASHINGTON +6.5 (+2.0)
3. NY JETS +2.5 (+1.7)
4. CAROLINA +10.5 (+1.6)
5. MINNESOTA +10.5 (+1.5)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. KANSAS CITY -3.5 (+4.2)
2. TAMPA BAY -3 (+3.3)
3. PHILADELPHIA -7 (+3.2)
4. JACKSONVILLE -6.5 (+1.8)
5. BALTIMORE -7 (+1.6)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SF-CLE OVER 37.5 (+7.9)
2. ATL-NYJ OVER 39.5 (+4.0)
3. ARI-TB OVER 44.5 (+3.4)
4. NYG-NE OVER 46.5 (+2.9)
5. HOU-IND OVER 44.5 (+2.7)
This week’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GB-DET UNDER 48.5 (-3.1)
2. KC-DAL UNDER 52.5 (-1.7)
3. LVR-LAC UNDER 41.5 (-0.8)
Top Head-to-Head Series NFL Betting Trends
These are the top head-to-head series NFL betting trends between teams from recent years’ action:
(305) GREEN BAY at (306) DETROIT
* Over the total is 7-2-1 in the last 10 of the GB-DET divisional rivalry at Ford Field
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): GB-DET (o/u at 48.5)
(307) KANSAS CITY at (308) DALLAS
* Home teams are 5-1-2 ATS in the KC-DAL non-conference series since 1992
Trend Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+3.5 vs KC)
(309) CINCINNATI at (310) BALTIMORE
* Over the total has converted in all six meetings between these AFC North rivals the last three seasons
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CIN-BAL (o/u at 51.5)
(313) CHICAGO at (314) PHILADELPHIA
* Under the total is 4-0-1 in the CHI-PHI series since 2016
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CHI-PHI (o/u at 44.5)
(461) HOUSTON at (462) INDIANAPOLIS
* Underdogs are 5-1 ATS in the HOU-IND divisional series in the last three seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (+4.5 at IND)
(463) ARIZONA at (464) TAMPA BAY
* ARIZONA has covered all five meetings with Tampa Bay since 2013
Trend Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (+3 at TB)
(465) JACKSONVILLE at (466) TENNESSEE
* Underdogs are 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS in the JAX-TEN divisional series in the last three seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): TENNESSEE (+6.5 vs JAX)
(467) LA RAMS at (468) CAROLINA
* Home teams are 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 of the Rams-Panthers series
Trend Match (PLAY): CAROLINA (+10.5 vs LAR)
(469) NEW ORLEANS at (470) MIAMI
* Favorites are 5-1 SU and ATS in the NO-MIA series since 1998
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-6 vs NO)
(471) ATLANTA at (472) NY JETS
* Under the total is 3-1 in the Falcons-Jets non-conference series in New York since 1998
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ATL-NYJ (o/u at 39.5)
(473) SAN FRANCISCO at (474) CLEVELAND
* Under the total is 6-0-1 in the SF-CLE non-conference series since 1993
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SF-CLE (o/u at 37.5)
* Home teams are 6-1 SU and ATS in these seven games as well
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+5.5 vs SF)
(475) MINNESOTA at (476) SEATTLE
* Favorites are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in the Vikings-Seahawks series at Seattle since 2012
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-10.5 vs MIN)
(477) BUFFALO at (478) PITTSBURGH
* Favorites are 6-1 SU and ATS in last seven Bills-Steelers matchups at Pittsburgh
Trend Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (-3.5 at PIT)
(479) LAS VEGAS at (480) LA CHARGERS
* Favorites are 8-1 SU and 7-1-1 ATS in the LVR-LAC AFC West rivalry in Los Angeles
Trend Match (PLAY): LA CHARGERS (-10 vs LVR)
(481) DENVER at (482) WASHINGTON
* Home teams are 4-1 ATS in the DEN-WAS series since 2009
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+6.5 vs DEN)
(483) NY GIANTS at (484) NEW ENGLAND
* Underdogs are on a 6-1 ATS run in the last seven of the NYG-NE series
Trend Match (PLAY): NY GIANTS (+7.5 at NE)
