Week 15 NFL Betting Trends:
The following NFL betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NFL games of Week 15. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFL board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NFL betting trends and systems for this week’s NFL games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Teams boasting an 83% or better won-lost record are 63-42 SU but 40-63 ATS (38.8%) in Post-Thanksgiving Day games since 2015, including 13-33 ATS (28.3%) in divisional contests.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW ENGLAND (-1.5 vs BUF), DENVER (+2.5 vs GB)
* Teams that lost the prior game to an opponent but now have a record of 20% or better outright have gone 48-16 SU and 41-23 ATS (64.1%) in the rematch contest
System Match (PLAY): CAROLINA (-2.5 at NO)
* Teams that have won their last three games ATS with a point margin of +10 or less in that stretch have gone just 17-49 SU and 18-44-4 ATS (29%) in game #4 since ’03.
System Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (+2.5 vs BAL)
* Since the start of the 2020 season, rookie starting quarterbacks have taken care of business in the home favorite role, going 43-15 SU and 40-17-1 ATS (70.2%).
System Match (PLAY): NY GIANTS (-2.5 vs WAS)
* TENNESSEE is 11-1 Under the total when coming off an upset win since 2022
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TEN-SF (o/u at 44.5)
* Teams that scored 45 or more points in their prior game have gone 23-15 SU but 11-27 ATS (28.9%) when favored at home by 3 or more points since 2012.
System Match (FADE): LA RAMS (-5.5 vs DET)
* Home teams are 9-1 SU and 7-1-2 ATS in the last 10 of the GB-DEN set
Trend Match (PLAY): DENVER (+2.5 vs GB)
#1 UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the MAKINEN POWER RATINGS: CHICAGO -7.5 vs CLE (projections have line at CHI -10.7)
Team/Coach/QB Specific Situational NFL Betting Trends
These are some of the top situational NFL betting trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action:
(451) ATLANTA (4-9) at (452) TAMPA BAY (7-6)
* ATLANTA is 21-5 Under the total on short rest (<7 days) since 2012
* ATLANTA’s Kirk Cousins is 11-3 Over the total in the last 14 games as a divisional road underdog
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in ATL-TB (o/u at 44.5)
* TAMPA BAY is 31-38 ATS (44.9%) when coming off a SU loss since 2016
* TAMPA BAY’s Baker Mayfield is 16-11 SU but 7-20 ATS as a home favorite since 2020
Trends Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-4.5 vs ATL)
(455) ARIZONA (3-10) at (456) HOUSTON (8-5)
* ARIZONA is 35-23 ATS (60.3%) in road/neutral games since 2019
* ARIZONA is 35-23 ATS (60.3%) as an underdog since 2021
Trends Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (+9.5 at HOU)
* HOUSTON’s DeMeco Ryans is on a 12-1 Under the total streak as a home favorite
* HOUSTON’s CJ Stroud is 17-9 Under the total in the last 26 games with his team coming off a win
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): ARI-HOU (o/u at 42.5)
(457) LAS VEGAS (2-11) at (458) PHILADELPHIA (8-5)
* LAS VEGAS is 39-54 ATS (41.9%) when coming off a SU loss since 2015
* LAS VEGAS is 38-54 ATS (41.3%) in road/neutral games since 2015
Trends Match (FADE): LAS VEGAS (+11.5 at PHI)
* PHILADELPHIA’s Nick Sirianni is 13-4 SU but 4-12 ATS vs. poor teams being outscored by 4.5 PPG or more since 2022
* PHILADELPHIA’s Jalen Hurts is 30-5 SU and 20-14-1 ATS (58.8%) as a home favorite. The average line was -7.1, Team average PF: 29.1
* PHILADELPHIA is 15-30 ATS (33.3%) when coming off a SU loss since 2018
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 2 FADES of PHILADELPHIA (-11.5 vs LVR)
* PHILADELPHIA’s Nick Sirianni is 13-4 Under the total in the last 17 games when coming off an outright loss
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LVR-PHI (o/u at 38.5)
(459) NY JETS (3-10) at (460) JACKSONVILLE (9-4)
* NY JETS own ugly 12-50 SU and 21-39 ATS record as road underdogs since 2016
* NY JETS are 25-47 ATS (34.7%) in road/neutral games since 2017
Trends Match (FADE): NY JETS (+13.5 at JAX)
* JACKSONVILLE is 23-30 ATS (43.4%) as a favorite since 2018
* JACKSONVILLE’s Trevor Lawrence is 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS with his team coming off an upset win since 2022
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of JACKSONVILLE (-13.5 vs NYJ)
* JACKSONVILLE is 45-37 Under the total (54.9%) since 2021
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYJ-JAX (o/u at 41.5)
(461) CLEVELAND (3-10) at (462) CHICAGO (9-4)
* CLEVELAND’s Kevin Stefanski is 23-15 Over the total vs. teams with a winning record since 2020
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-CHI (o/u at 38.5)
* CLEVELAND’s Kevin Stefanski is on a 10-8 SU and ATS run when coming off an outright home loss
* CHICAGO is 25-36-1 ATS (41%) when coming off a SU loss since 2019
Trends Match (SLIGHT PLAY): CLEVELAND (+7.5 at CHI)
(463) BUFFALO (9-4) at (464) NEW ENGLAND (11-2)
* BUFFALO’s Josh Allen is 39-22 Under the total on the road since 2018
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BUF-NE (o/u at 50.5)
* BUFFALO is 33-27 ATS (55%) in road/neutral games since 2019
* BUFFALO is 22-8 SU and 23-7 ATS vs. elite defenses allowing <19 PPG since 2018
Trends Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (+1.5 at NE)
* NEW ENGLAND is 35-6 SU and 31-10 ATS when riding a 3-game or more outright winning streak since 2016
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ENGLAND (-1.5 vs BUF)
(465) BALTIMORE (6-7) at (466) CINCINNATI (4-9)
* BALTIMORE is 46-26 ATS (63.9%) in road/neutral games since 2017
* BALTIMORE’s Lamar Jackson is 14-6 SU but 6-14 ATS in the last 20 games vs. poor teams with a winning percentage <=33%
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of BALTIMORE (-2.5 at CIN)
* CINCINNATI is 14-26 SU but 28-13 ATS surge when coming off an outright road loss since 2016
* CINCINNATI is 73-60 SU and 81-52 ATS when playing on normal rest (7 days) since 2012
* CINCINNATI is 30-20 ATS (60%) as an underdog since 2020
Trends Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+2.5 vs BAL)
(467) LA CHARGERS (9-4) at (468) KANSAS CITY (6-7)
* LA CHARGERS are 68-35 Under the total when coming off an outright win since 2013
* LA CHARGERS are on 29-14 Under the total surge in Sunday games
* KANSAS CITY is 79-40 Under the total as a home favorite since 2010
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): LAC-KC (o/u at 41.5)
* KANSAS CITY is 11-20-1 ATS (35.5%) vs. divisional opponents since 2020
Trend Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (-4.5 vs LAC)
(469) WASHINGTON (3-10) at (470) NY GIANTS (2-11)
* WASHINGTON is 22-40 ATS (35.5%) when coming off a SU loss since 2019
* WASHINGTON is 17-33 ATS (34%) vs. divisional opponents since 2017
* WASHINGTON’s Dan Quinn is 12-6 SU and 11-7 ATS vs. teams with a losing record since 2019
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 2 FADES of WASHINGTON (-2.5 at NYG)
* NY GIANTS are 60-36 Under the total (62.5%) since 2020
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): WAS-NYG (o/u at 47.5)
(471) INDIANAPOLIS (8-5) at (472) SEATTLE (10-3)
* INDIANAPOLIS is 17-20 SU but 25-12 ATS vs. elite teams with point differentials of >=+4.5 PPG since 2015
* INDIANAPOLIS is 31-15 SU and 32-12 ATS when coming off a double-digit loss since 2011
* INDIANAPOLIS is 25-24 SU and 34-14 ATS vs. elite defenses allowing <19 PPG since 2010
Trends Match (PLAY): INDIANAPOLIS (+14 at SEA)
* SEATTLE is 25-17-1 ATS (59.5%) vs. non-conference foes since 2015
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-14 vs IND)
* SEATTLE’s Sam Darnold is 29-16 Under the total when his team plays with normal rest (7 days) since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): IND-SEA (o/u at 42)
(473) GREEN BAY (9-3) at (474) DENVER (11-2)
* GREEN BAY is 28-12 Over the total as a road favorite since 2015
* GREEN BAY’s Jordan Love is on 17-9 Over the total surge when his team is coming off a win
* DENVER is 106-72 Under the total (59.6%) since 2015
Trends Match: 2 PLAYS OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in GB-DEN (o/u at 42.5)
* GREEN BAY’s Matt Lafleur is 25-15-1 SU but 16-25 ATS as a single-digit favorite since 2021
Trend Match (FADE): GREEN BAY (-2.5 at DEN)
(475) CAROLINA (7-6) at (476) NEW ORLEANS (3-10)
* CAROLINA is 10-19 SU and 9-20 ATS vs. poor teams with winning percentages <=33% since 2017
* CAROLINA is 16-34 ATS (32%) as a favorite since 2016
Trends Match (FADE): CAROLINA (-2.5 at NO)
* NEW ORLEANS is 25-47 ATS (34.7%) at home since 2017
Trend Match (FADE): NEW ORLEANS (+2.5 vs CAR)
(477) DETROIT (8-5) at (478) LA RAMS (10-3)
* DETROIT is 19-8 SU and ATS when coming off a double-digit win since 2018
* DETROIT is 16-9 SU and 20-6 ATS when playing with extra rest (>7 days) since 2019
* DETROIT is on a 21-13 SU and 23-10-1 ATS run vs. teams with a winning record
* DETROIT’s Jared Goff is 11-13 SU but 18-6 ATS as a single-digit underdog since 2021
Trends Match (PLAY): DETROIT (+5.5 at LAR)
* LA RAMS are on 23-7 SU and 24-6 ATS December run since 2018
* LA RAMS’ Matthew Stafford is 38-65 SU and 39-62 ATS vs. teams with winning records since 2011
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of LA RAMS (-5.5 vs DET)
* DETROIT’s Dan Campbell is 16-8 Under the total in games after allowing 30+ points since 2015
* LA RAMS are 58-46 Under the total (55.8%) since 2020
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-LAR (o/u at 55.5)
(479) TENNESSEE (2-11) at (480) SAN FRANCISCO (9-4)
* TENNESSEE is on a 9-39 SU and 13-34-1 ATS skid in Sunday games
Trend Match (FADE): TENNESSEE (+12.5 at SF)
* SAN FRANCISCO’s Kyle Shanahan is 16-3 SU and ATS in its last 19 games vs. poor offensive teams scoring <19 PPG
* SAN FRANCISCO’s Brock Purdy is just 11-8 SU and 7-12 ATS in last 19 vs. teams with lesser records
* SAN FRANCISCO is 20-30 ATS (40%) vs. non-conference foes since 2014
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 2 FADES of SAN FRANCISCO (-12.5 vs TEN)
* TENNESSEE is 11-1 Under the total when coming off an upset win since 2022
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TEN-SF (o/u at 44.5)
(481) MINNESOTA (5-8) at (482) DALLAS (6-6)
* MINNESOTA boasts an impressive 84-62 SU and 90-55-1 ATS record when playing on normal rest (7 days) since 2011
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (+5.5 at DAL)
* DALLAS is 30-26 ATS (53.6%) in non-divisional conference games since 2019
* DALLAS is 28-11 SU and 25-14 ATS vs. teams with a losing record since 2020
* DALLAS’ Dak Prescott is 19-7 SU and 18-8 ATS when his team is playing with extra rest (>7 days) since 2016
Trends Match (PLAY): DALLAS (-5.5 vs MIN)
* MINNESOTA is 64-52 Over the total (55.2%) since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DAL-MIN (o/u at 47.5)
(483) MIAMI (6-7) at (484) PITTSBURGH (7-6)
* MIAMI’s Mike McDaniel is on a 4-16 SU and 6-14 ATS skid as a single-digit underdog
* MIAMI’s Tua Tagovailoa is 2-12 SU and 5-9 ATS in his last 14 starts versus teams with winning records
Trends Match (FADE): MIAMI (+3 at PIT)
* PITTSBURGH is 26-33 ATS (44.1%) as a favorite since 2018
Trend Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (-3 vs MIA)
* PITTSBURGH is 108-76 Under the total (58.7%) since 2015
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIA-PIT (o/u at 42.5)
NFL Late-Season Betting Systems
NFL PTD Betting System #1 – There have been a couple of sweet line range spots in which to bet late regular-season home favorites in post-Thanksgiving action recently. When they’ve been -1 to -2.5, they’ve gone 55-39 SU and 53-40 ATS (57%) since 2015. When they’ve been in the -3.5 to -7 line range, they’ve gone 143-82 SU and 110-74 ATS (59.8%), since New Year’s ‘17.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): -1 to -2.5 line range – NEW ENGLAND (-1.5 vs BUF), NY GIANTS (-2.5 vs WAS)
-3.5 to -7 line range – TAMPA BAY (-4.5 vs ATL), KANSAS CITY (-4.5 vs LAC), LA RAMS (-5.5 vs DET), DALLAS (-5.5 vs MIN)
NFL PTD Betting System #2 – On late-season totals, there has been a PTD opportunity in games with the lowest numbers, as those games with posted totals of 40 or less have gone Over at an 80-64 (55.6%) rate since 2015.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): LVR-PHI (o/u at 38.5), CLE-CHI (o/u at 39.5)
NFL PTD Betting System #5 – NFL PTD teams coming off a game in which they lost by a TD or less as a 7-point or more favorite have bounced back well, going 27-10 SU and 23-14 ATS (62.2%) in the follow-up contest since 2015.
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-4.5 vs ATL)
NFL PTD Betting System #6 – Losing to a non-divisional conference foe at home can prove to be a negative momentum builder for NFL PTD teams, especially when hitting the road as an underdog the next week, as these teams have gone just 18-58 SU and 28-48 ATS (36.8%) in the follow-up game since 2015.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA (+4.5 at TB), CLEVELAND (+7.5 at CHI)
NFL PTD Betting System #7 – NFL PTD teams coming off close upset losses (<=10-point margin) on the road have gone 53-36 SU and 51-37 ATS (58%) in the follow-up game.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-11.5 vs LVR)
NFL PTD Betting System #8 – Brutal scoring efforts have propelled NFL PTD teams to good success in the next outing, as teams that scored less than 6 points in a late-season game have bounced back with a 33-26 SU and 39-18 ATS (68.4%) record in the follow-up outing since 2015.
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+2.5 at NYG)
NFL PTD Betting System #10 – NFL PTD teams allowing 30 points or more in a road loss have been big Under teams in the follow-up game, going 132-93 Under the total (58.7%) in the next contest since 2016.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): WAS-NYG (o/u at 47.5), BAL-CIN (o/u at 52.5), IND-SEA (o/u at 42.5), MIN-DAL (o/u at 47.5)
NFL PTD Betting System #11 – There is a dangerous late-season spot for red-hot home teams (on winning streaks of three-games or more) in NFL PTD games, and that is when they are not favored by a lot (<7 points) or underdog against a divisional rival. These teams have gone just 22-21 SU and 16-25 ATS (39%) dating back to 2015.
System Match (FADE): NEW ENGLAND (-1.5 vs BUF)
NFL PTD Betting System #12 – Another winning streak killer comes in PTD games when teams on winning streaks of 4 games or more hit the road and aren’t favored by a big amount (>7 points) or are underdogs. These teams have gone 35-43 SU and 29-48 ATS (37.7%) dating back to 2016.
System Matches (FADE ALL): GREEN BAY (-2.5 at DEN), MIAMI (+3 at PIT)
NFL PTD Betting System #13 – In NFL PTD games since 2010, teams on losing streaks of at least three games outright but boasting good defensive stats (allowing <21.5 PPG) are 24-37 SU but 39-22 ATS (63.9%).
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-11.5 vs LVR)
NFL PTD Betting System #14 – In NFL PTD games since 2010, teams on winning streaks of at least three games but not good offensively (scoring <22 PPG) have been terrible wagers, going 24-33 SU and 19-38 ATS (33.3%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON (-9.5 vs ARI), MIAMI (+3 at PIT)
NFL PTD Betting System #15 – Concerning late-season won-lost records, in PTD games where there is only a 1-win difference between the opponents, and oddsmakers have installed the team with the better record as a favorite of 3 points or more, that favored team is 73-17 SU and 58-30 ATS (65.9%) since 2017.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DALLAS (-5.5 vs MIN), PITTSBURGH (-3 vs MIA)
NFL PTD Betting System #16 – Again on late season won-lost records, in PTD games where there is win advantage of at least four season wins for the home team and they are favored but not by more than 7 points, these hosts boast an incredible 41-6 SU and 35-11 ATS (76.1%) record since Christmas 2016, and are currently riding a 16-0 SU and 15-1 ATS streak!
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR CHICAGO vs CLE (current spread -7.5)
NFL PTD Betting System #17 – Not surprisingly, some of the worst teams to back late in the season are those that can’t score well and are on the road, as teams averaging less than 19 PPG offensively and playing on the road in PTD games have struggled to a 52-146 SU and 78-117 ATS (40%) record since 2015.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (+7.5 at CHI), LAS VEGAS (+11.5 at PHI), TENNESSEE (+12.5 at SF)
NFL PTD Betting System #18 – The truly elite teams have actually been the most unreliable for bettors to back, as teams boasting an 83% or better won-lost record are 63-42 SU but 40-63 ATS (38.8%) in PTD games since 2015, including 13-33 ATS (28.3%) in divisional contests.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW ENGLAND (-1.5 vs BUF), DENVER (+2.5 vs GB)
NFL Rookie/Retread Coaching Systems
This material is from the VSiN piece entitled Analyzing the New NFL Head Coaches for 2025 detailing systems that apply to rookie coaches Ben Johnson (Chicago), Brian Schottenheimer (Dallas), Liam Coen (Jacksonville), Kellen Moore (New Orleans), and Aaron Glenn (NY Jets) as well as re-tread coaches Pete Carroll (Las Vegas) and Mike Vrabel (New England).
Rookie Coach Systems
(Games this week: NYJ(+13.5)-JAX(-13.5), CLE-CHI(-7.5), CAR-NO(+2.5), MIN-DAL(-5.5))
– Rookie head coaches haven’t been good at covering point spreads at home over the last decade – 161-186-11 ATS (46.4%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): JACKSONVILLE, CHICAGO, NEW ORLEANS, DALLAS
– Rookie head coaches have won as big favorites, but covering point spreads has been a different story. In fact, as favorites of 6 points or more since 2015, rookie head coaches are 53-12 SU, good for 81.5% outright, but have gone just 26-37-2 ATS, a covering rate of just 41.3%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): JACKSONVILLE, CHICAGO
– In a trend that seems to make sense as far as familiarity is concerned, the more familiar the opponent, the less successful rookie head coaches have been. Since 2015: Divisional games 120-136-4 ATS (46.9%).
System Match (FADE): NEW ORLEANS
– After wins, rookie coaches have done measurably worse in that same time frame, 56-80-7 ATS (41.2%) in their L143.
System Matches (FADE ALL): JACKSONVILLE, NEW ORLEANS
Retread Coach Systems
(Games this week: LVR(+11.5)-PHI, BUF-NE(-1.5))
– In non-conference games, they have really struggled, going 46-62 ATS (42.6%) over the last decade, including 19-32 ATS (37.3%) over the L3+ seasons.
System Match (FADE): LAS VEGAS
– When coming off a loss, retread coaches have a record of 141-179 ATS (44.1%) since 2015.
System Match (FADE): LAS VEGAS
– Retread coaches having won the earlier game versus an opponent have gone just 12-21-1 ATS (36.4%) in the rematch games since 2014.
System Match (FADE): NEW ENGLAND
NFL Rookie Quarterback Systems
These systems take into account rookie quarterback records in their first seasons. They include game logs of any rookie who started seven or more games in that first season. The starters this week include Cam Ward (Tennessee), Shedeur Sanders (Cleveland), JJ McCarthy (Minnesota), Tyler Shough (NO Saints), Jaxson Dart (NY Giants), and possibly Riley Leonard (Indianapolis).
(Games this week: CLE(+7.5)-CHI, WAS-NYG(-2.5), IND(+14)-SEA, CAR-NO(+2.5), TEN(+12.5)-SF, MIN(+5.5)-DAL)
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #4 – Rookie quarterbacks have experienced major late-season woes
For as much as rookie QBs have struggled early in recent years, over the long haul, or since 2008, the part of the season in which they have struggled worst is in weeks 10-15, as they are just 108-173 SU and 121-149-11 ATS (44.8%) in that time span.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND, NY GIANTS, INDIANAPOLIS, NEW ORLEANS, TENNESSEE, MINNESOTA
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Rookie quarterbacks have struggled on the road, particularly late in the season
The results of rookie quarterbacks on the road lately are startling. Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie starters have combined for a record of 145-134 ATS (52%) in home games but just 130-154 ATS (45.8%) in road/neutral games. In later season road games, week 10-EOY, they are just 43-112 SU and 66-87-2 ATS (43.1%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND, INDIANAPOLIS, TENNESSEE, MINNESOTA
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #6 – Don’t fall for the big underdog point spreads with rookie quarterbacks
Since 2015, rookie starting quarterbacks facing underdog lines of 6.5 points or more have won just 25 games, going 25-135 SU and 65-91-4 ATS (41.7%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND, INDIANAPOLIS, TENNESSEE
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #8 – Rookie quarterbacks have been incredible bets in the home favorite role over the last five seasons
Since the start of the 2020 season, rookie starting quarterbacks have taken care of business in the home favorite role, going 43-15 SU and 40-17-1 ATS (70.2%).
System Match (PLAY): NY GIANTS
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #10 – By type of opponent, divisional matchups have been toughest for rookie starting quarterbacks
Since 2015, rookie QBs are just 53-116 SU and 71-93-4 ATS (43.3%) versus divisional opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY GIANTS, NEW ORLEANS
Since 2018, rookie QBs have fared well against non-divisional conference opponents, going 58-76 SU but 74-59 ATS (55.6%).
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA
Since 2022, rookie QBs are 21-23 SU but 25-16-3 ATS (61%) versus non-conference foes.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, INDIANAPOLIS, TENNESSEE
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #11 – Losses have tended to snowball for rookie QBs
In their last 199 starts with their teams coming off outright losses, rookie QBs have gone just 63-136 SU and 91-105-2 ATS (46.4%). This trend dates back to 2018.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND, INDIANAPOLIS, NY GIANTS
NFL Veteran Quarterback Leading New Team Systems
These systems take into account veteran quarterback records in their first season with a new team. They include game logs of 32 different veteran QBs since 2004 who have played at least eight years in the NFL and started extensively on a previous team. This week, there are two different QBs finding themselves in a new place: Aaron Rodgers (Pittsburgh) and Jacoby Brissett (Arizona).
(Games this week: ARI(+9.5)-HOU, MIA-PIT(-3))
NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #4 – Non-Sunday games have been a struggle for veteran QBs with their new teams
Veteran quarterbacks have struggled under the spotlight of non-Sunday games lately, going 28-45 SU and 29-43-1 ATS (40.8%) in their L73 such tries for their new teams. Moreover, they are 11-22-1 ATS (33.3%) in their last 34 Monday Night contests.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH
NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Veteran quarterbacks thrive with their new teams at home
The results since 2005 of veteran quarterbacks playing with their new teams at home are quite impressive, as they have gone 131-97 SU and 118-99-11 ATS (54.4%).
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH
NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #6 – By type of opponent, non-divisional conference matchups have been best for veteran starting quarterbacks in their first season with new teams
Since 2005, veteran QBs in their first season with new teams have fared well against non-divisional conference opponents, going 89-82 SU and 93-76-2 ATS (55%).
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH
NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #7 – Non-conference matchups have been an absolute struggle for veteran starting quarterbacks in their first season with new teams over the last four years
Since 2021, veteran QBs in their first season with new teams have struggled horribly against non-conference opponents, going 18-35 SU and 16-37 ATS (30.2%).
System Match (FADE): ARIZONA
NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #8 –Veteran QBs have shown an inability to string win streaks together recently
In their last 67 starts with their new teams coming off outright victories, new incoming veteran QBs have gone just 30-37 SU and 24-42-1 ATS (36.4%). This trend dates back to 2021.
System Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH
NFL Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NFL games and detail the results of the follow-up game for these teams.
SHUTOUTS ARE EXTREMES
Teams that get shut out in a game have been solid bounce back teams in the next outing, going 30-37 SU but 41-24-2 ATS (63.1%) since 2012.
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+2.5 at NYG)
Teams off of a home shutout win have actually been dreadful in the next outing recently in the NFL, going 18-21 SU and 15-23-1 ATS (39.5%) in their last 39 games following up that extremely good defensive performance.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (+5.5 at DAL)
BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
Teams that scored 45 or more points in their prior game have gone 23-15 SU but 11-27 ATS (28.9%) when favored at home by 3 or more points since 2012.
System Match (FADE): LA RAMS (-5.5 vs DET)
TURNOVERS ARE A KEY HANDICAPPING STATISTIC
NFL teams coming off a game in which they turned the ball over five times or more have continued to flounder, going 21-16 SU but 12-24-1 ATS (33.3%) when favored in the next contest since 2012.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-11.5 vs LVR)
TNF, SNF, and MNF Team Trends and Systems for the NFL
The following NFL betting trends and systems come from a log of all the Thursday night (TNF), Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night (MNF) games since the start of the 2019 season. Only Thursday night games were included in the TNF study, not the day games played on Thanksgiving. The Sunday night games only included those games played on Sunday night, not all of the games covered by the NBC SNF crew, which also included some Wednesday and Saturday contests. The games analyzed were only regular-season games.
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
· There has been some interesting data regarding the first and second half of the season in terms of Thursday night games. In the first half of the season, or Weeks 1-8, home teams have gone 30-24 SU but 19-33-2 ATS (36.5%) in the last 54. Going back even further, since 2016, TNF home teams in Weeks 9 and later are 48-29 SU and 45-29-3 ATS (60.8%). There seems to be a fundamental edge to playing at home with less rest late in the season.
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-4.5 vs ATL)
· There has been a wild trend that has developed over the last 4+ seasons regarding TNF road teams coming off a home loss the prior Sunday, as they have rebounded incredibly with a 22-24 SU and 29-16-1 ATS (64.4%) record.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+4.5 at TB)
·Unfortunately, home cooking has not solved the ills for Thursday home teams coming off a loss in their most recent game, as they have been a brutal bet over the last five seasons, going 31-34 SU and 27-37-1 ATS (42.2%).
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-4.5 vs ATL)
Bad TNF Team Trends
Atlanta 2-5 SU and ATS skid L7
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (+4.5 at TB)
Tampa Bay 2-10 ATS since ‘13
Trend Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-4.5 vs ATL)
Under the total TNF Team Trends
Atlanta 7-1 to the UNDER in L8
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ATL-TB (o/u at 42.5)
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
· Home favorites of less than a TD on SNF have historically been solid, going 61-41-2 ATS (59.8%) in their last 104.
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (-5.5 vs MIN)
· SNF teams coming off of losses have proven not ready for the big time, as they have gone just 14-31 SU and 16-29 ATS (35.6%) in their last 45 tries against teams off a win.
System Match (FADE): DALLAS (-5.5 vs MIN)
· Momentum has been big for hosts overall, as home teams on SNF coming off a loss in their last games are just 16-26-1 SU and 18-24-1 ATS (42.9%) in their last 43, but those coming off a win are on a current 31-10 SU and 25-16 ATS (61%) surge.
System Match (FADE): DALLAS (-5.5 vs MIN)
Under the total SNF Team Trends
Dallas 16-9 UNDER since 2016
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIN-DAL (o/u at 47.5)
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
·In non-divisional conference matchups on MNF, hosts are on a 24-23 SU and 28-19 ATS (59.6%) surge since ’19.
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-3 vs MIA)
· Blowout wins have been great momentum builders for road MNF teams, as those coming off wins by 20 points or more have gone 10-5 SU and ATS (66.7%) in their last 15 tries.
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+3 at PIT)
·Won/lost records have mattered on MNF, as teams with the better record are 49-42 SU but just 36-53-2 ATS (40.4%) in the last 91 MNF games not matching teams with identical records.
System Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (-3 vs MIA)
If you’ve picked up from each of the team trends sections that certain teams are consistently doing well or poorly, or are going OVER or UNDER regularly, you’re right. Here are some overall primetime game trends that you’re going to want to consider:
Good PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trends
Dallas 17-10 ATS in the last 27
Trend Match (PLAY): DALLAS (-5.5 vs MIN)
Bad PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trends
Tampa Bay 11-22 SU and 9-24 ATS in the last 33
Trend Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-4.5 vs ATL)
UNDER the total PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trends
Atlanta 17-2 to the Under in the last 19
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ATL-TB (o/u at 44.5)
Miami 14-4 to the Under
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIA-PIT (o/u at 42.5)
Minnesota 26-14 Under primetime record since 2015
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIN-DAL (o/u at 47.5)
NFL Streaks Provide Some Advantages for Bettors
The following betting systems focus on winning and losing streaks. Below are the ones that have qualifying plays for this week’s action.
NFL Streaks Betting System #1: NFL teams that have lost their last 3 games ATS, all when favored, are on a 48-20 SU and 38-28-2 ATS (57.6%) run when favored in the next game as well.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-11.5 vs LVR), BALTIMORE (-2.5 at CIN), KANSAS CITY (-4.5 vs LAC)
NFL Streaks Betting System #4: NFL teams that have won their last 3 games ATS with a point margin of +10 or less in that stretch have gone just 17-49 SU and 18-44-4 ATS (29%) in game #4 since ’03.
System Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (+2.5 vs BAL)
NFL Streaks Betting System #5: NFL teams that have won their last 4 games outright while outscoring opponents by fewer than 30 total points in that span have gone 66-15 SU and 51-28-2 ATS (64.6%) in the next game when favored.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-9.5 vs ARI)
NFL Streaks Betting System #8: NFL teams that have lost their last 5 games ATS but were playing against a team that they have at least an equal won-lost record with have gone 23-16 SU and ATS (59%) in their last 39 tries.
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-4.5 vs ATL)
NFL Streaks Betting System #12: NFL teams that have lost at least their last 3 games outright have gone 65-40 SU but 42-59-4 ATS (41.6%) when favored by 3 points or more since 2013.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-11.5 vs LVR)
WATCH FOR NY GIANTS vs WAS (current spread -2.5)
NFL Streaks Betting System #13: NFL teams that have lost at least their last 5 games outright have gone 13-67 SU but 52-27-1 ATS (65.8%) as double-digit road underdogs since ’06.
System Match (PLAY): LAS VEGAS (+11.5 at PHI)
WATCH FOR ARIZONA at HOU (current spread +9.5)
Post-Bye Week Systems and Trends
The following systems and trends are from the long-running article series detailing pre- and post-bye week performance in the NFL. These records are from only in-season bye weeks and do not include playoffs or preseason.
Post-bye week system #1:
Play on road favorites coming out of their bye week. (Record: 119-49 SU and 97-67-4 ATS since 1999, 59.1%, +23.3 units, 14.2% ROI, Grade 63)
System Match (PLAY): CAROLINA (-2.5 at NO)
Post-bye week ROAD FAVORITE subsystems:
vs. divisional opponents. (Record: 32-19 ATS since 2002, 62.7%, +11.1 units, 21.8% ROI, Grade 65)
System Match (PLAY): CAROLINA (-2.5 at NO)
Post-bye week system #2:
Play against home teams coming out of their bye week against non-conference opponents. (Record: 27-25 SU and 32-18-2 ATS since 2015, 64%, +12.2 units, 24.4% ROI, Grade 66)
System Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (-12.5 vs TEN)
Post-bye week system #3:
Play against home underdogs coming out of their bye week. (Record: 49-19 SU and 37-29-2 ATS since 1999, 56.1%, +5.1 units, 7.7% ROI, Grade 59)
System Match (FADE): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR NEW ENGLAND vs BUF (current spread -1.5)
Post-bye week system #4:
Play Over the total in games involving posted totals of less than 40 with teams coming out of their bye week. (Record: 29-21-2 since ’10, 58%, +5.9 units, 11.8% ROI, Grade 60)
System Match (PLAY OVER): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR CAR-NO (current total 40.5)
Post-bye week system #5:
Play against double-digit favorites coming off their bye week. (Record: 19-9-1 ATS since 2014, 67.9%, +9.1 units, 32.5% ROI, Grade 62)
System Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (-12.5 vs TEN)
Post-bye week system #7:
Play Under the total with road teams coming off their bye week (Record: 45-26-1 since 2021, 63.4%, +16.4 units, 23.1% ROI, Grade 65)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CAR-NO (o/u at 40.5)
** Please note that the systems above and all of the following trends only include bye week games from the regular season schedule, not playoffs.
Carolina Panthers Post-Bye Week Game: 12/14 at New Orleans Saints
Carolina has won its last 3 post-bye week games ATS
Trend Match (PLAY): CAROLINA (-2.5 at NO)
Ten of the last 11 Panthers’ post-bye week games went Over the total
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CAR-NO (o/u at 40.5)
New England Patriots Post-Bye Week Game: 12/14 vs. Buffalo Bills
The Patriots are 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS in the last 8 post-bye week games versus divisional rivals
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ENGLAND (-1.5 vs BUF)
New England is on a 17-9 Under the total run in post-bye week games, allowing just 16.4 PPG
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BUF-NE (o/u at 50.5)
New York Giants Post-Bye Week Game: 12/14 vs. Washington Commanders
The Giants have a 9-2 Under the total record in their last 11 post-bye week divisional games
The Giants have gone Under the total in 5 of their last 6 post-bye week games
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): WAS-NE (o/u at 47.5)
San Francisco 49ers Post-Bye Week Game: 12/14 vs. Tennessee Titans
San Francisco is on 7-1 Under the total run in post-bye week games
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TEN-SF (o/u at 44.5)
The 49ers are 5-15-1 ATS in post-bye week games dating back to 2004, including 1-3 ATS in the last 4
Trend Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (-12.5 vs TEN)
Handicapping NFL Rematch Games
The following trends and betting systems come from same-season rematch data over the last 14 seasons.
Best NFL rematch teams lately
Cincinnati: 16-15 SU and 21-9 ATS in the last 30 rematch opportunities
Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+2.5 vs BAL)
New Orleans: 16-5 SU and 17-4 ATS run
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+2.5 vs CAR)
Worst NFL rematch teams lately
Carolina: 16-22 SU and 14-24 ATS in rematches since 2014
Trend Match (FADE): CAROLINA (-2.5 at NO)
Best NFL HOME rematch teams lately
Cincinnati: 13-4 ATS in the last 17 home rematch opportunities
System Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+2.5 vs BAL)
Best NFL ROAD rematch teams lately
Baltimore: 15-5 ATS in the last 20 rematch road games
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-2.5 at CIN)
Best NFL teams in rematches after winning the last game lately
Cincinnati: 11-4 SU and 10-5 ATS in the last 15 follow-up games
Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+2.5 vs BAL)
Noteworthy NFL Head-to-Head Second-Time (and 3rd) Around Trends
Buffalo: 12-6 ATS streak vs. Miami and New England since 12/31/17
Trend Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (+1.5 at NE)
Rematch Betting Systems
Teams that lost the prior game to an opponent but now have a record of 20% or better outright have gone 48-16 SU and 41-23 ATS (64.1%) in the rematch contest
System Match (PLAY): CAROLINA (-2.5 at NO)
Teams playing on the road in revenge mode and averaging 28.0 PPG or more offensively have gone 20-8 SU and 20-9 ATS (69%) in their last 29 revenge tries
System Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (+1.5 at NE)
Strategies Using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published in the 2025 NFL Betting Guide, Steve Makinen outlined 12 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of Wednesday at 1:45 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage.
Here is a quick tabulation on how DK bettors performed in the 2024 season:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 141-131 ATS (51.8%)
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 140-130 ATS (51.9%)
– Majority handle on totals: 143-133 (51.8%)
– Majority number of bets on totals: 147-131 (52.9%)
These are very good wrap-up numbers by the standards that have been established in most of the similar reports I have done for other sports. Considering NFL betting is king, it’s nice to see recreational bettors like those at DraftKings holding their own. With that in mind, here are the systems with updated language and records heading into the ’25 season.
NFL DK Betting Splits system #1: Over the past two seasons, when more than 68% of the handle has been on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group is just 71-81 ATS (46.7%). The number for this “super-majority” in college football was closer to 75%. In other words, if you see over 2/3 of the handle backing one side in an NFL game this season, it’s consistently profitable to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY, LAS VEGAS, KANSAS CITY, NY GIANTS, SEATTLE, CAROLINA, LA RAMS, SAN FRANCISCO, DALLAS, PITTSBURGH
NFL DK Betting Splits system #2: In NFL divisional games of 2022-24, DK majority handle bettors have been awful, as this majority group is just 117-148 ATS (44.2%). With the obvious generality that public bettors love favorites, it’s clear that they don’t value the stakes of these rivalry games and what they mean for the competitors.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY, NEW ENGLAND, BALTIMORE, KANSAS CITY, NY GIANTS, CAROLINA
NFL DK Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2 above, in that same time span, when the majority number of bets staked its side in an NFL divisional game, this majority group is just 118-150 ATS (44%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY, BUFFALO, CINCINNATI, LA CHARGERS, NY GIANTS, CAROLINA
NFL DK Betting Splits system #4: In NFL non-conference games of 2023 and 2024, DK majority number of bets groups were actually quite sharp, going 79-64 ATS (55.2%). This is obviously quite the opposite performance level of #3 above, and unfortunately for bettors, there are two fewer non-conference tilts than divisional contests for each team on the schedule every year. Of course, if strategically playing both spots according to these systems, every game in either situation is an opportunity.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): HOUSTON, PHILADELPHIA, CHICAGO, SEATTLE, DENVER, SAN FRANCISCO
NFL DK Betting Splits system #5: Since the start of the 2023 season, when the majority number of bets have backed road favorites for an ATS wager, these majority groups are actually 100-87 ATS (53.5%). I will tell you that there are only 15 games or fewer each year when this group will actually back the home dog. Watch this one closely, as backing road favorites in the NFL consistently has never been a consistent winning strategy.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): CAROLINA
NFL DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority handle was on road underdogs for an ATS wager over the last two years, these majority groups have surprisingly struggled, 27-36 ATS (42.9%). This goes against the logic I have discovered in other sports, which says that when the public goes “against the grain.” they can do well. Quite the opposite here. As you can see, it is rare, just 63 games in two full seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LAS VEGAS, NY JETS
NFL DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle and number of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games over the last two seasons, these majority groups are just 100-114 ATS (46.7%) and 101-111 ATS (47.6%), respectively. This set of games includes all the Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests. These numbers were improved along with the overall majority figures last year, but I wouldn’t expect that to continue.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY, DALLAS, PITTSBURGH
NFL DK Betting Splits system #8: In another rare winning record, when the majority number of bets has backed the team with fewer season wins in a 2023 or 2024 NFL game for an ATS wager, this majority group was 46-38 ATS (54.8%). This has proven to be a situation in which going against the grain pays off.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): BUFFALO, CINCINNATI, NY GIANTS, DETROIT
DK Betting Splits system #9: The average NFL total in 2023 was 43.0. Last year, it ballooned back up to 44.6. In games where the totals reached 46.5 or higher and oddsmakers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, majority number of bettors have gauged these games incredibly well the last two years, going 96-72 ATS (60.8%)! We’ll see how that trend holds in 2025.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – BUF-NE, BAL-CIN, DET-LAR, MIN-DAL
UNDER – WAS-NYG
DK Betting Splits system #11: The magic mark for super majority on handle for betting Overs was 74% or higher, and this group performed miserably in 2023 and 2024 with a record of 46-69 (42.6%). To me, this has been a long-standing belief, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses. On number of bets, this same super majority percentage produced a slightly improved 30-37 (44.8%) record, still poor though.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL INSTEAD): NYJ-JAX, IND-SEA, DET-LAR
DK Betting Splits system #12: Call this one the Over trap, but when a super-majority (>=64%) of handle has been on the Over, but DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week, this majority group has lost big, going just 70-92 (43.2%) over the past three seasons. Almost as if they were trying to bait more people into taking the Over. This is a classic example of where those behind the counter are smarter than those trying to cash the tickets.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL INSTEAD): NYJ-JAX, IND-SEA
This Week’s NFL Strength Ratings
The following NFL betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DENVER +2.5 (+2.4)
2. INDIANAPOLIS +14 (+1.4)
3. NY JETS +13.5 (+1.2)
4. BUFFALO +1.5 (+1.1)
5. NEW ORLEANS +2.5 (+1.0)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHICAGO -7.5 (+3.2)
2. SAN FRANCISCO -12.5 (+1.6)
3. PITTSBURGH -3 (+1.5)
4. PHILADELPHIA -11.5 (+1.3)
5. TAMPA BAY -4.5 (+0.4)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DENVER +2.5 (+3.1)
2. LAS VEGAS +11.5 (+1.6)
3(tie). CLEVELAND +7.5 (+0.7)
MINNESOTA +5.5 (+0.7)
5. ARIZONA +9.5 (+0.6)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAN FRANCISCO -12.5 (+3.9)
2. KANSAS CITY -4.5 (+2.3)
3. JACKSONVILLE -13.5 (+2.0)
4. TAMPA BAY -4.5 (+1.6)
5. LA RAMS -5.5 (+0.9)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NYJ-JAX OVER 41.5 (+2.7)
2. LVR-PHI OVER 38.5 (+2.4)
3(tie). MIN-DAL OVER 47.5 (+1.3)
MIA-PIT OVER 42.5 (+1.3)
5. TEN-SF OVER 44.5 (+0.7)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DET-LAR UNDER 55.5 (-1.4)
2. GB-DEN UNDER 42.5 (-0.9)
3(tie). BUF-NE UNDER 50.5 (-0.8)
BAL-CIN UNDER 52.5 (-0.8)
CAR-NO UNDER 40.5 (-0.8)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA CHARGERS +4.5 (+1.9)
2. INDIANAPOLIS +14 (+1.8)
3(tie). BUFFALO +1.5 (+1.7)
DENVER +2.5 (+1.7)
5. NEW ORLEANS +2.5 (+1.6)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHICAGO -7.5 (+2.5)
2. PITTSBURGH -3 (+1.9)
3. PHILADELPHIA -11.5 (+0.9)
4. TAMPA BAY -4.5 (+0.7)
5. JACKSONVILLE -13.5 (+0.1)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIA-PIT OVER 42.5 (+1.9)
2. MIN-DAL OVER 47.5 (+1.8)
3. LAC-KC OVER 41.5 (+1.6)
4. LVR-PHI OVER 38.5 (+1.4)
5. ARI-HOU OVER 42.5 (+1.3)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BUF-NE UNDER 50.5 (-2.0)
2. BAL-CIN UNDER 52.5 (-1.3)
3. DET-LAR UNDER 55.5 (-1.0)
4. CLE-CHI UNDER 39.5 (-0.6)
5. ATL-TB UNDER 44.5 (-0.5)
Top Head-to-Head Series NFL Betting Trends
These are the top head-to-head series NFL betting trends between teams from recent years’ action:
(451) ATLANTA at (452) TAMPA BAY
* Road teams are 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS in the last 8 of the ATL-TB divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+4.5 at TB)
(455) ARIZONA at (456) HOUSTON
* Under the total has converted in both meetings between ARI and HOU since 2021
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ARI-HOU (o/u at 42.5)
(457) LAS VEGAS at (458) PHILADELPHIA
* The Raiders have covered six of their last seven games with the Eagles
Trend Match (PLAY): LAS VEGAS (+11.5 at PHI)
(459) NY JETS at (460) JACKSONVILLE
* Favorites are 6-0 SU and ATS in Jets-Jaguars series at Jacksonville since 2002
Trend Match (PLAY): JACKSONVILLE (-12.5 vs NYJ)
* Over the total is 6-1 in the last 7 of the series as well
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NYJ-JAX (o/u at 41.5)
(461) CLEVELAND at (462) CHICAGO
* Favorites/home teams are 7-1 SU and 6-1-1 ATS in the CLE-CHI non-conference series since 1992
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (-7.5 vs CLE)
(463) BUFFALO at (464) NEW ENGLAND
* New England is 3-2 SU and 5-0 ATS in the divisional rivalry with Buffalo since the start of the 2023 season
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ENGLAND (-1.5 vs BUF)
(465) BALTIMORE at (466) CINCINNATI
* Road teams are 12-3 ATS in the BAL-CIN divisional series since 2017
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-2.5 at CIN)
* Over the total is 7-1 in the last 8 of the series at Cincinnati as well
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): BAL-CIN (o/u at 52.5)
(467) LA CHARGERS at (468) KANSAS CITY
* Underdogs are 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 of the LAC-KC AFC West set
Trend Match (PLAY): LA CHARGERS (+4.5 at KC)
(469) WASHINGTON at (470) NY GIANTS
* Under the total is 11-5-1 in the last 17 matchups between WAS and NYG
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): WAS-NYG (o/u at 47.5)
(471) INDIANAPOLIS at (472) SEATTLE
* Favorites are 5-1 SU and ATS in the last 6 of the IND-SEA non-conference series
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-14 vs IND)
(473) GREEN BAY at (474) DENVER
* Home teams are 9-1 SU and 7-1-2 ATS in the last 10 of the GB-DEN set
Trend Match (PLAY): DENVER (+2.5 vs GB)
(475) CAROLINA at (476) NEW ORLEANS
* Home teams are 6-3 SU and 6-2-1 ATS in the last 9 of the Panthers-Saints NFC South rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+2.5 vs CAR)
(477) DETROIT at (478) LA RAMS
* Under the total is 5-1 in the last 6 of the DET-LAR series
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-LAR (o/u at 55.5)
(479) TENNESSEE at (480) SAN FRANCISCO
* Tennessee is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 games with San Francisco
Trend Match (PLAY): TENNESSEE (+12.5 at SF)
(481) MINNESOTA at (482) DALLAS
* Road teams are 5-1 SU and ATS in the last 6 of the MIN-DAL series
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (+5.5 at DAL)
(483) MIAMI at (484) PITTSBURGH
* Underdogs are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings between Miami and Pittsburgh
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+3 at PIT)
