The following NFL betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NFL games of Week 17. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFL board.

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top NFL betting trends and systems for this week’s NFL games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

Atlanta 14-1 to the Under in the last 15 primetime games
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ATL-WSH (o/u at 47.5)

In NFL December/January regular season games since 2010, teams on winning streaks of at least three games but not good offensively (scoring <22 PPG) have been terrible wagers, going 21-32 SU and 16-37 ATS (30.2%).
System Match (FADE): LA RAMS (-6 vs. ARI) 

Teams that get shut out in a game have been solid bounce-back teams in the next outing, going 26-35 SU but 36-23-2 ATS (61%) since 2012.
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (-1 vs. LVR) 

Teams that won by 21 or more points in the opening game between teams are 82-26 SU and 67-41 ATS (62%) in the rematch later in the season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ARIZONA (+6 at LAR), PHILADELPHIA (-9 vs. DAL)

Thursday Night Football road teams coming off a home loss the prior Sunday have rebounded incredibly with a 19-20 SU and 25-13-1 ATS (65.8%) record.
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-3.5 at CHI)

In later season road games for Rookie Quarterbacks (Week 10-EOY), they are just 35-104 SU and 57-80-2 ATS (41.6%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): DENVER (+3.5 at CIN), ATLANTA (+4 at WAS) 

NY GIANTS are 24-5 Under the total as home underdogs since 2020
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total in IND-NYG (o/u at 40.5) 

SEATTLE is 19-3 Under the total as road favorite vs. non-divisional NFC foes since 2013
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total in SEA-CHI (o/u at 43.5) 

#1 TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS: DAL-PHI UNDER 43 (-3.3 difference) 

Strategies Using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published in the 2024 NFL Betting Guide, Steve Makinen outlined 12 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022 and 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of Tuesday morning. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage. 

Here are the systems with updated language and records we will continue to track for the rest of the 2024 season.

NFL DK Betting Splits system #1: Over the past two-plus seasons, when more than 65% of the handle has been on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group is just 130-139 ATS (48.3%). The number for this “super-majority” in college football was closer to 80%. The record for this year has been 34-28 ATS, including 21-9 ATS backing road teams. It’s hard to see this one continuing. We will continue to recommend that if you see 2/3 of the handle backing one side in an NFL game this season, it’s consistently profitable to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY, BALTIMORE, SEATTLE, LA CHARGERS, CINCINNATI, LA RAMS, LAS VEGAS, JACKSONVILLE, BUFFALO, DALLAS, MIAMI, DETROIT 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #2: In NFL divisional games of 2022-24, DK majority handle bettors have been awful, as this majority group is just 91-117 ATS (43.8%). With the obvious generality that public bettors love favorites, it’s clear that they don’t value the stakes of these rivalry games and what they mean for the competitors. So far in 2024, this is 20-17, but the bulk of the season’s 96 divisional games are still yet to come.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA RAMS, JACKSONVILLE, BUFFALO, CAROLINA, DALLAS, GREEN BAY

NFL DK Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2 above, in that same time span, when the majority number of bets staked its side in an NFL divisional game, this majority group is just 96-114 ATS (45.7%), but 20-15 ATS in 2024.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA RAMS, JACKSONVILLE, BUFFALO, CAROLINA, DALLAS, MINNESOTA

NFL DK Betting Splits system #4: In NFL non-conferences games of 2023 and 2024, DK majority number of bets groups have actually been quite sharp, as this majority group is 60-50 ATS (54.5%), performing at nearly the exact same level in each season. This is obviously quite the opposite performance level of #2 above, and unfortunately for bettors, there are two fewer non-conference tilts than divisional contests for each team on the schedule every year. Of course, if strategically playing both spots according to these systems, every game in either situation is an opportunity.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANAPOLIS, NEW ORLEANS

NFL DK Betting Splits system #5: Since the start of the 2022 season, when the majority number of bets has backed road favorites for an ATS wager, these majority groups are just 108-123 ATS (46.7%). I will tell you that there are only 15 games or less each year when this group will actually back the home dog. However, this system is 28-18 ATS for 2024, a major factor as to why bettors are doing well overall. I suspect if (or when) this turns, DK will regain the advantage.
System Matches (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY, BALTIMORE, SEATTLE, LA CHARGERS, INDIANAPOLIS, MIAMI, DETROIT 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority number of bets was on road underdogs for an ATS wager, these majority groups have actually produced adequate records, 71-65 ATS (52.2%) going back to September ‘22. This matches up somewhat with the logic I used in explaining some college successes. When the public goes “against the grain,” they can do well.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CAROLINA, DALLAS 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle and number of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games over the last two seasons, these majority groups are just 78-95 ATS (45.1%) and 76-94 ATS (44.7%) respectively. This set of games includes all the Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests.
System Matches (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY, BALTIMORE, SEATTLE, LA CHARGERS, CINCINNATI, LA RAMS, DETROIT

NFL DK Betting Splits system #8: In another rare winning record, when the majority of the handle has backed the team with fewer season wins in a 2022-24 NFL game for an ATS wager, this majority group is 69-56 ATS (55.2%). This has proven to be another situation in which going against the grain pays off.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI, LAS VEGAS, CAROLINA, DALLAS, GREEN BAY

The following are some new money line systems we will be employing going forward…

NFL DK Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle has backed a team in a money line wager but not real strongly (in the 40%-60%) range, they have really struggled in 2024, going 16-26 for -13.71 units of loss, an ROI of -32.6%. It seems that conviction is an important thing when majority groups get together. If it seems as if the DK betting public might be “guessing” as to who wins, fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LAS VEGAS ML, TENNESSEE ML

NFL DK Betting Splits system #10: Super majority handle bettors of more than 75% have also struggled in games when backing bigger favorites on money lines. In games with point spreads of -4.5 or higher (approx. -225 or more ML), this super majority group has gone just 23-13 but for -15.53 units of loss, an ROI of -43.1% in ‘24. Public bettors tend to look at these games as more “automatic” wagers, and as you can tell, they aren’t.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE ML, LA RAMS ML, INDIANAPOLIS ML, BUFFALO ML, TAMPA BAY ML, PHILADELPHIA ML, MIAMI ML 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #11: Majority number of bets groups have been at their best in ’24 on money lines in the Sunday afternoon games when backing small favorites (4 points or less, and approximately -220 or less). These groups boast an impressive 33-10 record for +18.93 units of profit and an ROI of +44%! These including the games in the 1:00 p.m. ET-4:30 p.m. ET starting slots, and with more choices at these times, bettors are faring well.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NONE YET THIS WEEK 

These next systems cover totals… 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #12: Since 2022, the average NFL total has been right around 44 or a tic higher. Since mid-2023, majority handle bettors have been very sharp in dealing with totals at or below that number (44 or less). In fact, since November 2023, these groups have gone 97-66 (59.5%)! It’s in the higher totaled games that they typically fare worse.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – KC-PIT, SEA-CHI, LAC-NE, IND-NYG, TEN-JAX, DAL-PHI
UNDER – LVR-NO, MIA-CLE

NFL DK Betting Splits system #13: When 56% or more of the handle has been on the Under in an NFL game total over the last two seasons, this majority group has been quite sharp, 70-52 ATS (57.4%). This number for a “super-majority” inthe  NFL is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total. Incidentally, the same majority figure for NUMBER of bets has also produced a 54-39 (58.1%) record.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): ARI-LAR, LVR-NO, NYJ-BUF, MIA-CLE, ATL-WAS 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #14: Quite the opposite of #9, the magic mark for a super majority on the handle for betting Overs was 64% or higher, and this group performed miserably in 2022-24 with a record of 121-153 (44.2%). To me, this has been a long-standing belief, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses.
System Matches (INSTEAD PLAY UNDER ALL): KC-PIT, BAL-HOU, SEA-CHI, LAC-NE, DEN-CIN, IND-NYG, TEN-JAX, CAR-TB, GB-MIN, DET-SF

NFL DK Betting Splits system #15: Call this one the Over trap, but when a super-majority (>=64%) of the handle has been on the Over, but DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week, this majority group has lost big, going just 50-74 (40.3%) over the past two-plus seasons. Almost as if they were trying to bait more people into taking the Over. This is a classic example of where those behind the counter are smarter than those trying to cash the tickets.
System Matches (INSTEAD PLAY UNDER ALL): SEA-CHI, IND-NYG, TEN-JAX

These are some of the top situational NFL betting  trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action. 

(401) KANSAS CITY at (402) PITTSBURGH
* KANSAS CITY is 55-37-1 ATS (59.8%) in road/neutral games since 2014
Trend Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (-3 at PIT)

* PITTSBURGH is 24-5 SU and 23-6 ATS coming off a game allowing 30+ points since 2013
* PITTSBURGH is 18-8 SU and 19-7 ATS vs. teams with better records since 2013
* PITTSBURGH’s Mike Tomlin is on 30-21 SU and 35-14 ATS run as a single-digit underdog
* PITTSBURGH’s Russell Wilson is 22-15 SU and 26-12 ATS vs. teams with elite defenses allowing <19 PPG since 2012
* PITTSBURGH’s Russell Wilson is on 15-5 Over the total surge vs. teams with better records
* PITTSBURGH’s Russell Wilson is on a 3-9 SU and 1-11 ATS skid with his team on short rest (<7 days)
* PITTSBURGH’s Russell Wilson boasts a 10-5 SU and 12-3 ATS record as a home underdog since 2012
Trends Match: 5 PLAYS, 1 FADE of PITTSBURGH (+3 vs KC), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 43.5) 

(403) BALTIMORE at (404) HOUSTON
* BALTIMORE’s Lamar Jackson is 28-9 SU and 23-13 ATS in a game following up scoring 30+ points since 2018
* BALTIMORE is 43-22 ATS (66.2%) in road/neutral games since 2017
Trends Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (-5.5 at HOU)

* HOUSTON is on 16-54 SU and 25-44 ATS slide vs. elite teams with a point differential of >=+4.5 PPG since 2010
* HOUSTON’s DeMeco Ryans is on 11-4 Under the total surge vs. teams with a winning record
Trends Match: FADE HOUSTON (+5.5 vs BAL), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 46.5)

(405) SEATTLE at (406) CHICAGO
* SEATTLE is 19-3 Under the total as road favorite vs. non-divisional NFC foes since 2013
* SEATTLE’s Geno Smith is just 12-12 SU and 8-15-1 ATS in the last 24 starts vs. teams with lesser records
* SEATTLE is 35-24 ATS (59.3%) when coming off SU loss since 2015
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of SEATTLE (-3.5 at CHI), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 43.5)

* CHICAGO is 21-35-1 ATS (37.5%) when coming off SU loss since 2019
* CHICAGO is 30-43 ATS (41.1%) in non-divisional conference games since 2015
* CHICAGO is 26-42-1 ATS (38.2%) as an underdog since 2019
Trends Match: FADE CHICAGO (+3.5 vs. SEA) 

(407) LA CHARGERS at (408) NEW ENGLAND
* LA CHARGERS are 62-30 Under the total when coming off an outright win since 2013
* LA CHARGERS’s Jim Harbaugh owns a solid 29-8 SU and 26-9 ATS NFL mark as a favorite of -3 to -7 points since 2011
Trends Match: PLAY LA CHARGERS (-4 at NE), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 42.5)

* NEW ENGLAND is 15-25-2 ATS (37.5%) as an underdog since 2021
Trend Match: FADE NEW ENGLAND (+4 vs. LAC) 

(411) DENVER at (412) CINCINNATI
* DENVER’s Sean Payton is 16-8 SU and 19-4 ATS in the last 24 games when coming off an outright road loss
* DENVER is 96-66 Under the total (59.3%) since 2015
Trends Match: PLAY DENVER (+3.5 at CIN)

* CINCINNATI is 47-27 ATS (63.5%) in non-divisional conference games since 2015
* CINCINNATI’s Zac Taylor boasts a 19-5 SU and 17-5 ATS record as a favorite of -3 to -7 points since 2022
* CINCINNATI’s Joe Burrow is 13-5 Under the total versus non-divisional AFC foes since 2022
Trends Match: PLAY CINCINNATI (-3.5 vs. DEN), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 50) 

(415) ARIZONA at (416) LA RAMS
* ARIZONA is 10-19 ATS (34.5%) vs. divisional opponents since 2020
* ARIZONA is 29-18 ATS (61.7%) as an underdog since 2021
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of ARIZONA (+6 at LAR)

* LA RAMS are 15-5 SU and 16-3 ATS when playing on short rest (<7 days) since 2018
* LA RAMS are on 21-7 SU and 23-5 ATS December run since 2018
* LA RAMS’ Matthew Stafford is 20-11 Over the total with his team playing on short rest (<7 days) since 2012
Trends Match: PLAY LA RAMS (-6 vs. ARI), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 48)

(409) INDIANAPOLIS at (410) NY GIANTS
* INDIANAPOLIS’s Shane Steichen is on 12-2 SU and ATS run vs. poor offensive teams scoring <19 PPG
* INDIANAPOLIS is 25-17 ATS (59.5%) vs. non-conference foes since 2015
Trends Match: PLAY INDIANAPOLIS (-8 at NYG)

* NY GIANTS are 24-5 Under the total as home underdogs since 2020
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total in IND-NYG (o/u at 40.5) 

(417) LAS VEGAS at (418) NEW ORLEANS
* LAS VEGAS is 6-4 SU and 10-0 ATS when coming off a game allowing <=14 points since 2020
* LAS VEGAS is 35-50 ATS (41.2%) in road/neutral games since 2015
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of LAS VEGAS (+1 at NO)

* NEW ORLEANS is 24-41 ATS (36.9%) at home since 2017
Trend Match: FADE NEW ORLEANS (-1 vs. LVR)

(419) TENNESSEE at (420) JACKSONVILLE
* TENNESSEE is on a 7-26 SU and 7-25-1 ATS skid in Sunday games
Trend Match: FADE TENNESSEE (+1 at JAX)

* JACKSONVILLE’s Doug Pederson is 4-12 SU and ATS vs. poor defenses allowing >=27 PPG since 2016
* JACKSONVILLE’s Doug Pederson is just 12-10 SU and 5-17 ATS as a single-digit home favorite since 2018
* JACKSONVILLE is 30-42 ATS (41.7%) when coming off SU loss since 2018
* JACKSONVILLE’s Mac Jones is 1-16 SU and 2-15 ATS (11.8%) as an underdog of 7 points or less (the average line was +3.0, Team average PF: 16.5) (*if they become an underdog, -1 currently)
Trends Match: FADE JACKSONVILLE (-1 vs. TEN) 

(421) NY JETS at (422) BUFFALO
* NY JETS own ugly 11-45 SU and 18-36 ATS record as road underdogs since 2016
* NY JETS’ Aaron Rodgers is 13-4 Under the total vs. teams with a better record since 2014
* NY JETS are 19-33 ATS (36.5%) vs. divisional opponents since 2016
Trends Match: FADE NY JETS (+9.5 at BUF), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 46)

* BUFFALO’s Sean McDermott is 8-1 SU but 1-8 ATS as a double-digit favorite since 2022
Trend Match: FADE BUFFALO (*if they become double-digit favorites, -9.5 currently*) 

(423) CAROLINA at (424) TAMPA BAY
* CAROLINA is on 1-14 SU and 3-12 ATS slide vs. elite teams with PPG differentials >=+4.5
* CAROLINA’s Bryce Young is 5-20 SU and 11-13 ATS in the last 24 starts as an underdog
Trends Match: FADE CAROLINA (+8 at TB)

* TAMPA BAY’s Baker Mayfield is 12-8 SU but 6-14 ATS as a home favorite since 2020
Trend Match: FADE TAMPA BAY (-8 vs. CAR)

(425) GREEN BAY at (426) MINNESOTA
* GREEN BAY is 23-14 ATS (62.2%) when coming off SU loss since 2018
* GREEN BAY is 22-11-1 ATS (66.7%) as an underdog since 2019
* GREEN BAY’s Jordan Love is on 12-5 Over the total surge when his team is coming off a win
Trends Match: PLAY GREEN BAY (+1.5 at MIN), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 49)

* MINNESOTA boasts an impressive 80-55 SU and 86-48-1 ATS record when playing on normal rest (7 days) since 2011
* MINNESOTA is 21-11 SU but only 10-22 ATS in its last 32 games as a home favorite
* MINNESOTA’s Kevin O’Connell is 12-5 Over the total vs. teams with a winning record since 2022
* MINNESOTA’s Sam Darnold is 25-10 Under the total when his team plays with normal rest (7 days) since 2019
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of MINNESOTA (-1.5 vs GB), also 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER the total in GB-MIN (o/u at 49) 

(427) DALLAS at (428) PHILADELPHIA
* DALLAS’ Mike McCarthy is just 15-31-1 SU and 16-31 ATS vs. teams with a winning record since 2017
* DALLAS is 34-18 ATS (65.4%) vs. divisional opponents since 2016
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of DALLAS (+9 at PHI)

* PHILADELPHIA is 13-19 SU and 7-23 ATS when coming off a divisional loss since 2012
* PHILADELPHIA’s Nick Sirianni is 10-3 SU but 1-11 ATS vs. poor teams being outscored by 4.5 PPG or more since 2022
* PHILADELPHIA’s Nick Sirianni is 11-1 Under the total in the last 12 games when coming off an outright loss
* PHILADELPHIA’s Nick Sirianni boasts a 17-2 SU and 13-5 ATS record as a single-digit home favorite since 2021
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 2 FADES of PHILADELPHIA (-9 vs DAL), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 43) 

(429) MIAMI at (430) CLEVELAND
* MIAMI is on 32-16 SU and 31-16 ATS surge vs. teams with a losing record since 2019
* MIAMI’s Tua Tagovailoa is on 13-6 SU and ATS surge with his team coming off a home win
* MIAMI’s Tua Tagovailoa is 10-0 SU and 9-0-1 ATS vs. teams with poor point differentials of <=-4.5 PPG since 2022
Trends Match: PLAY MIAMI (-6.5 at CLE)

* CLEVELAND is 32-44 ATS (42.1%) at home since 2015
* CLEVELAND’s Kevin Stefanski is 16-7 Under the total vs. teams with a losing record since 2020
Trends Match: FADE CLEVELAND (+6.5 vs. MIA), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 40) 

(413) ATLANTA at (414) WASHINGTON
* ATLANTA is on 10-17 SU and 6-21 ATS skid on normal rest (7 days)
Trend Match: FADE ATLANTA (+4 at WAS)

* WASHINGTON is 12-11 SU and 17-5 ATS when coming off an upset win since 2018
* WASHINGTON’s Dan Quinn is 22-11 Over the total in games after scoring 30+ points since 2015
Trends Match: PLAY WASHINGTON (-4 vs ATL), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 47.5) 

(431) DETROIT at (432) SAN FRANCISCO
* DETROIT is 16-4 SU and ATS when coming off a double-digit win since 2018
* DETROIT is 13-7 SU and 17-4 ATS when playing with extra rest (>7 days) since 2019
* DETROIT is 45-19-1 ATS (70.3%) overall since 2021
Trends Match: PLAY DETROIT (-3.5 at SF)

* SAN FRANCISCO’s Kyle Shanahan is 25-13 Under the total as a single-digit underdog since 2017
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER in DET-SF (o/u at 51)

NFL Late-Season Betting Systems

NFL Late Regular Season System #1
These aren’t exactly “systems,” but these are the best line scenario records I was able to uncover from recent December/January regular season games:
· Double-digit home favorites are 11-4 SU but 3-12 ATS (20%) in the last 15 tries
System Match (FADE): BUFFALO (*if they become double-digit favorites vs. NYJ, -9.5 currently)

· Double-digit home favorites are on 42-12 SU but 21-32-1 ATS (39.6%) skid versus same conference opponents
System Match (FADE): BUFFALO (*if they become double-digit favorites vs. NYJ, -9.5 currently)

· Home underdogs of more than 7 points are just 11-52 SU and 27-35-1 ATS (43.5%) since 2015
System Match (FADE): NY GIANTS (+8 vs. IND)

· Road favorites 3 points or more are 143-123 ATS (53.8%) since 2014
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY, BALTIMORE, SEATTLE, LA CHARGERS, INDIANAPOLIS, MIAMI, DETROIT

NFL Late Regular Season System #2
Since 2015, NFL teams with winning percentages of 83% or higher are just 47-37 SU and 29-54-1 ATS (34.9%) in December/January regular season games, including 10-26-1 ATS vs. divisional opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY (-3 at PIT), MINNESOTA (-1.5 vs GB), DETROIT (-3.5 at SF)

NFL Late Regular Season System #3
In NFL December/January regular season games since 2012, home teams with at least four more wins than their opponent are 144-32 SU and 99-75 ATS (56.9%), including 118-17 SU and 78-56 ATS when favored by 6-points or more.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BUFFALO (-9.5 vs. NYJ), TAMPA BAY (-8 vs. CAR), PHILADELPHIA (-9 v.s DAL)

NFL Late Regular Season System #4
In NFL December/January regular season games since 2010, road teams scoring fewer than 19 PPG and playing as dogs of +13 points or fewer are just 32-122 SU and 55-96 ATS (36.4%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): TENNESSEE (+1 at JAX), LAS VEGAS (+1 at NO), CAROLINA (+8 at TB) 

NFL Late Regular Season System #5
In NFL December/January regular season games since 2012, road underdogs allowing 24.0 PPG or more are just 36-156 SU and 83-105 ATS (44.1%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): TENNESSEE (+1 at JAX), LAS VEGAS (+1 at NO), DALLAS (+9 at PHI), CAROLINA (+8 at TB) 

NFL Late Regular Season System #6
Since 2010, NFL teams coming off close upset losses (<=10-point margin) on the road have gone 62-33 SU and 59-35 ATS (62.8%) in the follow-up game.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ARIZONA (+6 at LAR), PHILADELPHIA (-9 vs. DAL), TAMPA BAY (-8 vs. CAR)

NFL Late Regular Season System #7
In NFL December/January regular season games since 2010, teams on losing streaks of at least three games outright and playing as underdogs or favorites of less than 3 points are just 44-103 SU and 60-88 ATS (40.5%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO (+3.5 vs. SEA), NEW ENGLAND (+4 vs. LAC), NY GIANTS (+8 vs. IND), TENNESSEE (+1 at JAX), CLEVELAND (+6.5 vs. MIA) 

NFL Late Regular Season System #9
In NFL December/January regular season games since 2010, teams on winning streaks of at least three games but not good offensively (scoring <22 PPG) have been terrible wagers, going 21-32 SU and 16-37 ATS (30.2%).
System Match (FADE): LA RAMS (-6 vs. ARI)

NFL Late Regular Season System #10
Since 2014, NFL teams coming off divisional losses and now playing on the road have gone 63-67 SU but 76-50 ATS (60.3%) in the follow-up game.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DENVER (+3.5 at CIN), TENNESSEE (+1 at JAX)

NFL Rookie/Retread Coaching Systems

This material is from the VSiN piece entitled Analyzing the New NFL Head Coaches for 2024 detailing systems that apply to rookie coaches Dave Canales (Carolina), Jerod Mayo (New England), Mike Macdonald (Seattle), Brian Callahan (Tennessee) as well as re-tread coaches Raheem Morris (Atlanta), Jim Harbaugh (LA Chargers), and Dan Quinn (Washington). 

Rookie Coach Systems

(Games this week: SEA(-3.5)-CHI, LAC-NE(+4), TEN(+1)-JAX, CAR(+8)-TB)

– Rookie head coaches have been far more proficient at covering point spreads on the road over the last decade. Here is the breakdown: Home games – 160-186-10 ATS (46.2%). Road/Neutral games – 184-165-9 ATS (52.7%).
System Match (FADE): NEW ENGLAND

– Rookie head coaches have also struggled in the revenge spot. When taking on a team they lost to earlier that season, they are just 28-47 SU and 34-40-1 ATS (45.9%) in the follow-up contest.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TENNESSEE, CAROLINA

Retread Coach Systems

(Games this week: LAC(-4)-NE, ATL(+4)-WAS)

– Like the rookie head coaches, re-tread head coaches have been far more proficient at covering point spreads on the road over the last decade. Here is the breakdown: Home games – 90-120-1 ATS (42.9%). Road/Neutral games – 103-110-1 ATS (48.4%).
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON

–  Re-tread head coaches have been brutal bets as favorites but respectable in the underdog role in their first seasons with new franchise. As favorites since 2014, they’ve gone 98-70 SU but just 61-96-11 ATS, for 38.9%! As dogs (or pick ’em), 82-191 SU and 132-134-7 ATS (49.6%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA CHARGERS, WASHINGTON

NFL Rookie Quarterback Systems

These NFL betting trends and systems take into account rookie quarterback records in their first seasons. They include game logs of any rookie who started seven or more games in that first season. The starters this week include Caleb Williams (Chicago), Michael Penix Jr. (Atlanta), Jayden Daniels (Washington), Drake Maye (New England), Spencer Rattler (New Orleans), and Bo Nix (Denver).

(Games this week: SEA-CHI(+3.5), LAC-NE(+4), DEN(+3.5)-CIN, LVR-NO(-1), ATL(+4)-WAS) 

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Rookie quarterbacks have struggled on the road, particularly late in the season
The results of rookie quarterbacks on the road lately are startling. Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie starters have combined for a record of 122-115-1 ATS (51.5%) in home games but just 102-127-2 ATS (44.5%) in road/neutral games. In later season road games, Week 10-EOY, they are just 35-104 SU and 57-80-2 ATS (41.6%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): DENVER, ATLANTA

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #7 – Rookie quarterbacks have been solid bets in the home favorite role over the last four seasons
Since the start of the 2020 season, rookie starting quarterbacks have taken care of business in the home favorite role, going 40-11 SU and 37-13-1 ATS (74%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW ORLEANS, WASHINGTON

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #10 – By type of opponent, non-conference matchups have been tougher for rookie starting quarterbacks
Since 2018, rookie QB are just 30-52 SU and 36-44-2 ATS (45%) versus non-conference foes.
System Match (FADE): NEW ORLEANS

Since 2018, rookie QBs have fared well against non-divisional conference opponents, going 52-60 SU but 64-47-1 ATS (57.7%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO, NEW ENGLAND, DENVER, ATLANTA, WASHINGTON

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #11 – Losses have tended to snowball for rookie QB’s
In their last 150 starts with their teams coming off outright losses, rookie QBs have gone just 51-114 SU and 72-90-3 ATS (44.4%). This trend dates back to 2018.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO, NEW ENGLAND, DENVER, NEW ORLEANS

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #12 – Non-Sunday games have been a respite for rookie QBs
Rookie quarterbacks have fared reasonably well under the spotlight of non-Sunday games lately, going 19-21 SU and 25-13-2 ATS (65.8%) in their last 40 such tries. Moreover, they are 20-6-1 ATS (76.9%) in their last 27 Monday Night contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO, NEW ENGLAND, DENVER

NFL Veteran Quarterback Leading New Team Systems

These NFL betting trends and systems take into account veteran quarterback records in their first season with a new team. They include game logs of 28 different veteran QBs since 2003 who have played at least eight years in the NFL and started extensively on a previous team. This week, there are two different QBs finding themselves in a new place: Aaron Rodgers (NY Jets) and Russell Wilson (Pittsburgh). 

(Games this week: KC-PIT(+3), NYJ(+9.5)-BUF) 

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #2 – Veteran quarterbacks are best for their new teams in the month of December
 I just showed how these veteran QBs in new places struggle a bit out of the gate. Well, like should be expected, these QBs play best in the key month of December, when postseason berths are usually on the line, going 51-50 SU and 54-44-3 ATS (55.1%) since 2004.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH, NY JETS

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #4 – Non-Sunday games have been a struggle for veteran QBs with their new teams
Veteran quarterbacks have struggled under the spotlight of non-Sunday games lately, going 25-36 SU and 24-36-1 ATS (40%) in their last 61 such tries for their new teams. Moreover, they are 10-19-1 ATS (34.5%) in their last 30 Monday Night contests.
System Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #6 – By type of opponent, non-divisional conference matchups have been best for veteran starting quarterbacks in their first season with new teams
Since 2005, veteran QBs in their first season with new teams have fared well against non-divisional conference opponents, going 83-68 SU and 83-66-2 ATS (55.7%).
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH 

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #10 – Veteran quarterbacks are consistent bets as sizeable underdogs with new teams
Dating back to 2006, veteran starting quarterbacks in their first seasons with new teams have gone 44-75 SU but 66-48-5 ATS (57.9%) when playing as underdogs of 3-points or more.
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH, NY JETS 

NFL Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NFL betting trends and systems search for extreme statistical performances in NFL games and detail the results of the follow-up game for these teams. 

SHUTOUTS ARE EXTREMES
Teams that get shut out in a game have been solid bounce back teams in the next outing, going 26-35 SU but 36-23-2 ATS (61%) since 2012.
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (-1 vs. LVR)

Teams off of a home shutout win have actually been dreadful in the next outing recently in the NFL, going 15-18 SU and 12-20-1 ATS (37.5%) in their last 33 games following up that extremely good defensive performance.
System Match (FADE): GREEN BAY (+1.5 at MIN)

TURNOVERS ARE KEY HANDICAPPING STATISTIC
NFL teams coming off a game in which they turned the ball over five times or more have continued to flounder, going 17-15 SU but 9-22-1 ATS (29%) when favored in the next contest since 2012.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (-4 vs ATL)

The following trends and systems come from a log of all the Thursday night (TNF), Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night (MNF) games since the start of the 2019 season. Only Thursday night games were included in the TNF study, not the day games played on Thanksgiving. The Sunday night games only included those games played on Sunday night, not all of the games covered by the NBC SNF crew, which also included some Wednesday and Saturday contests. The games analyzed were only regular-season games.

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
· Road teams have been solid, 36-43 SU and 43-33-3 ATS (56.6%) in the last 79.
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-3.5 at CHI)

·  There has been some interesting data regarding the first and second half of the season in terms of Thursday night games. In the first half of the season, or Weeks 1-8, home teams have gone 24-22 SU but 15-29-2 ATS (34.1%). Going back even further, since 2016, TNF home teams in weeks 9 and later are 44-26 SU and 41-26-3 ATS (61.2%). There seems to be a fundamental edge to playing at home with less rest late in the season.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (+3.5 vs. SEA)

· Home underdogs on TNF have really struggled of late, going 6-20 SU and 9-17 ATS (34.6%) in their L26, scoring just 15.6 PPG. In terms of totals, 16 of the L24 (66.7%) TNF games featuring a home dog went Under.
Systems Match: PLAY CHICAGO (+3.5 vs. SEA), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 43.5)

·  There has been a wild trend that has developed over the last 3+ seasons regarding TNF road teams coming off a home loss the prior Sunday, as they have rebounded incredibly with a 19-20 SU and 25-13-1 ATS (65.8%) record.
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-3.5 at CHI)

· Unfortunately, home cooking has not solved the ills for Thursday home teams coming off a loss in their most recent game, as they have been a brutal bet over the last four seasons, going 27-32 SU and 22-36-1 ATS (37.9%).
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+3.5 vs. SEA)

Good TNF Team Trend
Seattle 9-6 SU and 8-5-2 ATS L15
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-3.5 at CHI)

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
·  Home favorites of less than a TD on SNF have gone the complete opposite direction, showing a record of 22-13 SU and 15-20 ATS (42.9%) in their last 35 after going 40-18-2 ATS prior.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (-4 vs. ATL)

·  Momentum has been big for hosts overall, as home teams on SNF coming off a loss in their last games are just 14-21 SU and 14-20-1 ATS (41.2%) in their last 35, but those coming off a win are on a current 26-7 SU and 20-13 ATS (60.6%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (-4 vs. ATL)

· Strangely, the league’s highest-scoring teams have not fared well on SNF of late, as those scoring 30+ PPG are 12-9 SU but 4-17 ATS (19%) in their last 21 tries against teams not scoring that much.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (-4 vs. ATL) 

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
· NFL home underdogs on Monday Night are on a run of 13-16 SU and 16-12-1 ATS (57.1%) dating back to September 2021. The last 27 of these games have seen Under the total go 20-5-2 (80%) as well, games producing just 37.9 PPG.
Systems Match: PLAY SAN FRANCISCO (+3.5 vs. DET), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 51)

· In non-divisional conference matchups on MNF, hosts are on a 19-19 SU and 23-15 ATS (60.5%) surge since 2019.
System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (+3.5 vs. DET)

· Won/lost records have mattered on MNF, as teams with the better record are 41-35 SU but just 28-46-2 ATS (37.8%) in the last 75 MNF games not matching teams with identical records.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-3.5 at SF)

Good MNF Team Trend
San Francisco 12-6 SU and ATS since 2012
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (+3.5 vs. DET)

If you’ve picked up from each of the team trends sections that certain teams are consistently doing well or poorly, or are going Over or Under regularly, you’re right. Here are some overall primetime game trends that you’re going to want to consider:

Bad PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trends
Chicago 4-12 SU and 5-11 ATS last 16
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+3.5 vs. SEA)

Washington 11-22 and 10-22-1 ATS in primetime since 2013
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (-4 vs. ATL) 

UNDER the total PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trends
Atlanta 14-1 to the Under in the last 15
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ATL-WSH (o/u at 47.5)

Seattle 10-5 Under in the last 14
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SEA-CHI (o/u at 43.5)

NFL Streaks Provide Some Advantages for Bettors

The following NFL betting trends and systems were part of an article released in Week 8 of the 2023 NFL season focusing on winning and losing streaks. There were 15 different systems cited. These listed are the ones that have qualifying plays for this week’s action. 

NFL Streaks Betting System #5: NFL teams that have won their last four games outright while outscoring opponents by fewer than 30 total points in that span have gone 60-14 SU and 49-23-2 ATS (68.1%) in the next game when favored.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY (-2.5 at PIT), LA RAMS (-6 vs ARI)

Handicapping NFL Rematch Games

The following NFL betting trends and systems come from same-season rematch data over the last 13 seasons. 

Best NFL rematch teams lately
–  Dallas: 20-4 SU and 18-6 ATS since 2017
Trend Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+9 at PHI)

–  Tennessee: 16-9 SU and 15-10 ATS surge
Trend Match (PLAY): TENNESSEE (+1 at JAX)

Worst NFL rematch teams lately
–  Arizona: 3-16 SU and 5-14 ATS skid in the last 19
Trend Match (FADE): ARIZONA (+6 at LAR)

–  Carolina: 14-21 SU and 12-23 ATS in rematches since 2014
Trend Match (FADE): CAROLINA (+8 at TB)

–  Minnesota current 6-12 SU and 5-13 ATS slide
Trend Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-1.5 vs. GB)

–  NY Jets: 5-21 SU and 8-17-1 ATS skid
Trend Match (FADE): NY JETS (+9.5 at BUF)

–  Philadelphia: just 5-12 SU and 3-13-1 ATS in the last 17 rematch games
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-9 vs. DAL)

Best NFL home rematch teams lately
–  Buffalo: 17-5 SU and 12-10 ATS in the last 22 home rematches, scoring 29.7 PPG
Trend Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (-9.5 vs. NYJ)

–  Jacksonville: 12-5 SU and 13-3-1 ATS in the last 17 home rematches
Trend Match (PLAY): JACKSONVILLE (-1 vs. TEN)

Worst NFL revenge teams lately
–  Green Bay: 4-8 SU and 4-7-1 ATS in the last 12 revenge attempts
Trend Match (FADE): GREEN BAY (+1.5 at MIN)

High-scoring rematch teams
–  Minnesota: Over in 12 of the last 15 rematch games
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): GB-MIN (o/u at 49)

Noteworthy NFL head-to-head second-time (and third) around trends
–  Tennessee: 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS run vs. Jacksonville
Trend Match (PLAY): TENNESSEE (+1 at JAX)

Rematch Betting Systems
 -Teams that won by 21 or more points in the opening game between teams are 82-26 SU and 67-41 ATS (62%) in the rematch
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ARIZONA (+6 at LAR), PHILADELPHIA (-9 vs. DAL)

This Week’s NFL Strength Ratings

The following NFL betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DALLAS +9 (+2.7)
2(tie). ARIZONA +6 (+2.0)
CLEVELAND +6.5 (+2.0)
4. PITTSBURGH +3 (+1.8)
5. HOUSTON +5.5 (+1.5) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TAMPA BAY -8 (+2.1)
2. BUFFALO -9.5 (+2.0)
3. LA CHARGERS -4 (+1.5)
4. JACKSONVILLE -1 (+1.4)
5. WASHINGTON -4 (+0.7) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ARIZONA +6 (+4.4)
2. PITTSBURGH +3 (+3.8)
3. HOUSTON +5.5 (+1.2)
4. NY GIANTS +8 (+1.0)
5. CAROLINA +8 (+0.9) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW ORLEANS -1 (+3.1)
2. DETROIT -3.5 (+2.6)
3. MINNESOTA -1 (+1.2)
4. CINCINNATI -3.5 (+1.0)
5. LA CHARGERS -4 (+0.3) 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIA-CLE OVER 40 (+1.8)
2. LVR-NO OVER 37.5 (+1.3)
3. SEA-CHI OVER 43.5 (+1.2)
4. TEN-JAX OVER 39.5 (+1.1)
5. NYJ-BUF OVER 46 (+0.8) 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GB-MIN UNDER 49 (-2.8)
2. DET-SF UNDER 51 (-1.2)
3(tie). ARI-LAR UNDER 48 (-1.0)
IND-NYG UNDER 40.5 (-1.0)
5. BAL-HOU UNDER 46.5 (-0.6) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ARIZONA +6 (+3.3)
2. DALLAS +9 (+2.8)
3. CLEVELAND +6.5 (+1.9)
4. CHICAGO +3.5 (+1.8)
5. LAS VEGAS +1 (+1.6) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LA CHARGERS -4 (+2.6)
2. BUFFALO -9.5 (+1.6)
3. CINCINNATI -3.5 (+1.3)
4. INDIANAPOLIS -8 (+1.0)
5. MINNESOTA -1 (+0.2)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ATL-WAS OVER 47.5 (+3.5)
2. TEN-JAX OVER 39.5 (+2.6)
3. BAL-HOU OVER 46.5 (+2.2)
4. NYJ-BUF OVER 46 (+1.9)
5. MIA-CLE OVER 40 (+1.7) 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DAL-PHI UNDER 43 (-3.3)
2. KC-PIT UNDER 43.5 (-2.4)
3. GB-MIN UNDER 49 (-1.6)
4. ARI-LAR UNDER 48 (-1.1)
5. SEA-CHI UNDER 43.5 (-1.0) 

These are the top head-to-head series NFL betting trends between teams from recent years’ action:

(401) KANSAS CITY at (402) PITTSBURGH
* KANSAS CITY has won the last three ATS versus Pittsburgh
Trend Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY ATS 

(403) BALTIMORE at (404) HOUSTON
* BALTIMORE has won the last four ATS versus Houston
Trend Match: PLAY BALTIMORE ATS 

(405) SEATTLE at (406) CHICAGO
* Over the total is 9-2 in the last 11 of the SEA-CHI series
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(415) ARIZONA at (416) LA RAMS
* LA RAMS are on a 5-2 ATS surge at Arizona
Trend Match: PLAY LA RAMS ATS 

(413) ATLANTA at (414) WASHINGTON
* Road teams are on a 9-2 ATS surge in the last 11 of the ATL-WAS series
Trend Match: PLAY ATLANTA ATS 

(423) CAROLINA at (424) TAMPA BAY
* TAMPA BAY is on a 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS surge hosting Carolina
Trend Match: PLAY TAMPA BAY ATS 

(427) DALLAS at (428) PHILADELPHIA
* Favorites have won the last four SU and ATS of the DAL-PHI series at Philadelphia
Trend Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA ATS 

(411) DENVER at (412) CINCINNATI
* Road teams are on a 9-1 ATS surge in the DEN-CIN series
Trend Match: PLAY DENVER ATS 

(425) GREEN BAY at (426) MINNESOTA
* Over the total is 3-1 in the last four of the GB-MIN series at Minnesota after an 0-6 skid
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(409) INDIANAPOLIS at (410) NY GIANTS
* Over the total is 6-1 in the last seven of the IND-NYG series
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total

(407) LA CHARGERS at (408) NEW ENGLAND
* NEW ENGLAND is on a 7-1 ATS run vs. Chargers but lost last time
Trend Match: PLAY NEW ENGLAND ATS 

(417) LAS VEGAS at (418) NEW ORLEANS
* Underdogs have won the last three ATS in the LVR-NO series
Trend Match: PLAY LAS VEGAS ATS (*as of Tuesday morning)

(429) MIAMI at (430) CLEVELAND
* CLEVELAND is 4-1 ATS in the last five hosting Miami
Trend Match: PLAY CLEVELAND ATS 

(421) NY JETS at (422) BUFFALO
* Under the total is 11-5 in the NYJ-BUF series at Buffalo since 2007
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total 

(419) TENNESSEE at (420) JACKSONVILLE
* Under the total is 9-4 in the last 13 of the TEN-JAC series at Jacksonville
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total 

(431) DETROIT at (432) SAN FRANCISCO
* DETROIT has won the last four ATS versus San Francisco
Trend Match: PLAY DETROIT ATS

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Steve Makinen
Steve Makinen
As one of the original founders of StatFox, Steve Makinen has been in the business of sports betting and data analysis for almost 25 years now. In his time in the industry, Steve has worked in a variety of capacities on both sides of the betting counter, from his early days of developing the StatFox business, to almost a decade of oddsmaking consulting for one of the world's leading sportsbooks, to his last seven years as Point Spread Weekly and Analytics Director with VSiN. Steve has always believed that number crunching and handicapping through foundational trends and systems is the secret to success and he shares this data with VSiN readers on a daily basis for all of the major sports.

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