The following NFL betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NFL games of Week 18. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFL board. 

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top NFL betting trends and systems for this week’s NFL games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* In rematch games where point spreads have changed 17 points or more from the prior contest, the team that the line moved favorably towards is on a 37-1 SU and 27-11 ATS (71.1%) run
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (-10.5 vs KC)

* Dallas: 16-1 to the Over in the last 17 home rematch games
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): WAS-DAL (o/u at 44) 

* Teams playing on the road in revenge mode and averaging 28.0 PPG or more offensively have gone 17-8 SU and 19-7 ATS (73.1%) in their last 26 revenge tries
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (-1.5 at PIT), WASHINGTON (-4.5 at DAL) 

NFL Streaks Betting System #13: NFL teams that have lost at least their last five games outright have gone 12-65 SU and 50-26-1 ATS (65.8%) as double-digit road underdogs since 2006.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (+17.5 at BAL), CHICAGO (+10 at GB)

* In NFL December/January regular season games since 2010, road teams scoring fewer than 19 PPG and playing as dogs of +13 points or fewer are just 33-124 SU and 56-98 ATS (36.4%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND, CAROLINA, CHICAGO, NY GIANTS, JACKSONVILLE 

* Teams that scored 45 or more points in their prior game have gone 21-15 SU but 11-25 ATS (30.6%) when favored at home by 3 or more points since 2012.
System Match (FADE ATS): TAMPA BAY (-13.5 vs. NO) 

* NY GIANTS are 12-0 Under the total when coming off a win over AFC foe since 2016
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total in NYG-PHI (o/u at 37.5) 

* BALTIMORE’s John Harbaugh is 16-4 Under the total in January games since 2012
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total in CLE-BAL (o/u at 41.5) 

#1 TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections: MIA-NYJ OVER 39 (+4.0) 

Strategies Using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published in the 2024 NFL Betting Guide, Steve Makinen outlined 12 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022 and 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of Wednesday. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage.

Here are the systems with updated language and records we will continue to track for the rest of the 2024 season. 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #1: Over the past two-plus seasons, when more than 65% of the handle has been on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group is just 130-139 ATS (48.3%). The number for this “super-majority” in college football was closer to 80%. The record for this year has been 34-28 ATS, including 21-9 ATS backing road teams. It’s hard to see this one continuing. We will continue to recommend that if you see 2/3 of the handle backing one side in an NFL game this season, it’s consistently profitable to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY, BUFFALO, CHICAGO, INDIANAPOLIS, WASHINGTON, MIAMI, LAS VEGAS, LA RAMS, ARIZONA, DETROIT

NFL DK Betting Splits system #2: In NFL divisional games of 2022-24, DK majority handle bettors have been awful, as this majority group is just 91-117 ATS (43.8%). With the obvious generality that public bettors love favorites, it’s clear that they don’t value the stakes of these rivalry games and what they mean for the competitors. So far in 2024, this is 20-17, but the bulk of the season’s 96 divisional games are still yet to come.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND, CINCINNATI, TAMPA BAY, BUFFALO, CHICAGO, JACKSONVILLE, CAROLINA, WASHINGTON, TENNESSEE, PHILADELPHIA, MIAMI, KANSAS CITY, LAS VEGAS, LA RAMS, ARIZONA, DETROIT 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2 above, in that same time span, when the majority number of bets staked its side in an NFL divisional game, this majority group is just 96-114 ATS (45.7%), but 20-15 ATS in 2024.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND, CINCINNATI, TAMPA BAY, BUFFALO, GREEN BAY, JACKSONVILLE, ATLANTA, WASHINGTON, HOUSTON, PHILADELPHIA, MIAMI, KANSAS CITY, LA CHARGERS, LA RAMS, SAN FRANCISCO, DETROIT

NFL DK Betting Splits system #5: Since the start of the 2022 season, when the majority number of bets has backed road favorites for an ATS wager, these majority groups are just 108-123 ATS (46.7%). I will tell you that there are only 15 games or less each year when this group will actually back the home dog. However, this system is 28-18 ATS for 2024, a major factor as to why bettors are doing well overall. I suspect if (or when) this turns, DK will regain the advantage.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI, BUFFALO, WASHINGTON, HOUSTON, MIAMI, LA CHARGERS

NFL DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority number of bets was on road underdogs for an ATS wager, these majority groups have actually produced adequate records, 71-65 ATS (52.2%) going back to September 2022. This matches up somewhat with the logic I used in explaining some college successes. When the public goes “against the grain,” they can do well.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, KANSAS CITY, SAN FRANCISCO 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle and number of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games over the last two seasons, these majority groups are just 78-95 ATS (45.1%) and 76-94 ATS (44.7%) respectively. This set of games includes all the Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND, CINCINNATI, DETROIT 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #8: In another rare winning record, when the majority of the handle has backed the team with fewer season wins in a 2022-24 NFL game for an ATS wager, this majority group is 69-56 ATS (55.2%). This has proven to be another situation in which going against the grain pays off.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI, CHICAGO, CAROLINA, TENNESSEE, LAS VEGAS

The following are some new money line systems we will be employing going forward…

NFL DK Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle has backed a team in a money line wager but not real strongly (in the 40%-60%) range, they have really struggled in 2024, going 16-26 for -13.71 units of loss, a ROI of -32.6%. It seems that conviction is an important thing when majority groups get together. If it seems as if the DK betting public might be “guessing” as to who wins, fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CAROLINA ML, TENNESSEE ML, MINNESOTA ML 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #10: Super majority handle bettors of more than 75% have also struggled in games when backing bigger favorites on money lines. In games with point spreads of -4.5 or higher (approx. -225 or more ML), this super majority group has gone just 23-13 but for -15.53 units of loss, an ROI of -43.1% in ‘24. Public bettors tend to look at these games as more “automatic” wagers, and as you can tell, they aren’t.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE ML, TAMPA BAY ML, GREEN BAY ML, WASHINGTON ML 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #11: Majority number of bets groups have been at their best in 2024 on money lines in the Sunday afternoon games when backing small favorites (4 points or less, and approximately -220 or less). These groups boast an impressive 33-10 record for +18.93 units of profit and an ROI of +44%! These include the games in the 1:00 p.m. ET-4:30 p.m. ET starting slots, and with more choices at these times, bettors are faring well.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BUFFALO ML, PHILADELPHIA ML, MIAMI ML, ARIZONA ML

These next systems cover totals… 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #12: Since 2022, the average NFL total has been right around 44 or a tic higher. Since mid-2023, majority handle bettors have been very sharp in dealing with totals at or below that number (44 or less). In fact, since November 2023, these groups have gone 97-66 (59.5%)! It’s in the higher totaled games that they typically fare worse.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – CLE-BAL, WAS-DAL, NYG-PHI, MIA-NYJ
UNDER – NO-TB, BUF-NE, CHI-GB, HOU-TEN, KC-DEN, LAC-LVR, SEA-LAR, SF-ARI 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #13: When 56% or more of the handle has been on the Under in an NFL game total over the last two seasons, this majority group has been quite sharp, 70-52 ATS (57.4%). This number for a “super-majority” in the NFL is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total. Incidentally, the same majority figure for the number of bets has also produced a 54-39 (58.1%) record.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NO-TB, BUF-NE, HOU-TEN, KC-DEN, LAC-LVR, SEA-LAR 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #14: Quite the opposite of #9, the magic mark for super majority on the handle for betting Overs was 64% or higher, and this group performed miserably in 2022-24 with a record of 121-153 (44.2%). To me, this has been a long-standing belief, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses.
System Matches (INSTEAD PLAY UNDER ALL): CIN-PIT, CAR-ATL, NYG-PHI, MIN-DET 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #15: Call this one the Over trap, but when a super-majority (>=64%) of the handle has been on the Over, but DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week, this majority group has lost big, going just 50-74 (40.3%) over the past two-plus seasons. Almost as if they were trying to bait more people into taking the Over. This is a classic example of where those behind the counter are smarter than those trying to cash the tickets.
System Matches (INSTEAD PLAY UNDER ALL): NONE YET

These are some of the top situational NFL betting trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action: 

(343) CLEVELAND at (344) BALTIMORE
* CLEVELAND is 21-38 ATS (35.6%) vs. divisional opponents since 2015
* CLEVELAND’s Kevin Stefanski is 21-11 Over the total vs. teams with a winning record since 2020
* CLEVELAND’s Kevin Stefanski is on a 9-5 SU and ATS run when coming off an outright home loss
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of CLEVELAND (+17.5 at BAL), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 41.5)

* BALTIMORE is 25-13 SU but 12-25 ATS as a divisional home favorite since 2010
* BALTIMORE’s John Harbaugh is 16-4 Under the total in January games since 2012
* BALTIMORE’s Lamar Jackson is 29-9 SU and 24-13 ATS in a game following up scoring 30+ points since 2018
* BALTIMORE’s Lamar Jackson is 9-4 SU but 3-10 ATS in the last 13 games vs. poor teams with winning percentage <=33%
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 2 FADES of BALTIMORE (-17.5 vs CLE), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 41.5) 

(355) CINCINNATI at (356) PITTSBURGH
* CINCINNATI is 55-64 SU but 73-43 ATS on the road dating back to 2011
* CINCINNATI is 71-56 SU and 78-49 ATS when playing on normal rest (7 days) since 2012
Trends Match: PLAY CINCINNATI (-1.5 at PIT)

* PITTSBURGH’s Mike Tomlin is on 30-22 SU and 35-15 ATS run as a single-digit underdog
* PITTSBURGH’s Russell Wilson boasts a 10-6 SU and 12-4 ATS record as a home underdog since 2012
* PITTSBURGH’s Russell Wilson is 7-0 Over the total in January games since 2020
* PITTSBURGH is 100-69 UNDER the total (59.2%) since 2015
Trends Match: PLAY PITTSBURGH (+1.5 vs CIN), also 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 48.5) 

(335) NEW ORLEANS at (336) TAMPA BAY
* NEW ORLEANS is 35-23 ATS (60.3%) in road/neutral games since 2018
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+13.5 at TB)

* TAMPA BAY’s Baker Mayfield is 13-8 SU but 7-14 ATS as a home favorite since 2020
Trend Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-13.5 vs. NO) 

(337) BUFFALO at (338) NEW ENGLAND
* BUFFALO’s Sean McDermott boasts a 15-3 SU and ATS record as a short favorite of less than 3-points since 2017
Trend Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (-2.5 at NE)

* NEW ENGLAND is 15-26-2 ATS (36.6%) as an underdog since 2021
Trend Match (FADE): NEW ENGLAND (+2.5 vs. BUF) 

(339) CHICAGO at (340) GREEN BAY
* CHICAGO is 8-24 SU and 10-22 ATS versus divisional opponents since 2019
* CHICAGO is 22-35-1 ATS (38.6%) when coming off SU loss since 2019
* CHICAGO is 27-46 ATS (37%) in road/neutral games since 2016
Trends Match: FADE CHICAGO (+10 at GB)

* GREEN BAY is 23-14 ATS (62.2%) when coming off SU loss since 2018
* GREEN BAY is 91-19 SU and 70-38 ATS as a home favorite since 2009
Trends Match: PLAY GREEN BAY (-10 vs CHI) 

(349) JACKSONVILLE at (350) INDIANAPOLIS
* JACKSONVILLE is on horrific 5-40 SU and 12-33 ATS skid vs. teams with better records since 2011
* JACKSONVILLE’s Doug Pederson is 39-25 Over the total in road games since 2016
* JACKSONVILLE’s Doug Pederson owns a 14-8 SU and 15-6 ATS record when coming off an upset win since 2017
* JACKSONVILLE’s Mac Jones is 2-16 SU and 3-15 ATS (16.7%) as an underdog of 7 points or less (the average line was +2.9, Team average PF: 16.7)
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 2 FADES of JACKSONVILLE (+4.5 at IND), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 44.5)

* INDIANAPOLIS’s Shane Steichen is on 12-3 SU and ATS run vs. poor offensive teams scoring <19 PPG
* INDIANAPOLIS is 30-15 SU and 32-11 ATS when coming off a double-digit loss since 2011
Trends Match: PLAY INDIANAPOLIS (-4.5 vs. JAX) 

(351) CAROLINA at (352) ATLANTA
* CAROLINA’s Bryce Young is 5-21 SU and 11-14 ATS in the last 25 starts as an underdog
* CAROLINA’s Bryce Young is on 7-2 Under the total run with his team coming off a double-digit loss
Trends Match: FADE CAROLINA (+8 at ATL), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 48)

* ATLANTA is 58-46 SU but 38-66 ATS as a single-digit favorite since 2012
* ATLANTA is on 10-18 SU and 6-22 ATS skid on normal rest (seven days)
* ATLANTA’s Raheem Morris is on a 12-15 SU and 10-17 ATS slide in home games
Trends Match: FADE ATLANTA (-8 vs. CAR) 

(353) WASHINGTON at (354) DALLAS
* WASHINGTON’s Dan Quinn is 23-11 Over the total in games after scoring 30+ points since 2015
* WASHINGTON’s Dan Quinn is 11-2 SU and ATS vs. teams with a losing record since 2019
* WASHINGTON is 24-11-1 ATS (68.6%) when coming off SU win since 2019
Trends Match: PLAY WASHINGTON (-4.5 at DAL), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 44)

* DALLAS is 34-18 ATS (65.4%) vs. divisional opponents since 2016
* DALLAS’s Mike McCarthy is just 15-32-1 SU and 16-32 ATS vs. teams with a winning record since 2017
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of DALLAS (+4.5 vs. WAS) 

(361) HOUSTON at (362) TENNESSEE
* TENNESSEE is on 7-27 SU and 7-26-1 ATS skid in Sunday games
Trend Match: FADE TENNESSEE (+1 vs. HOU) 

(365) NY GIANTS at (366) PHILADELPHIA
* NY GIANTS are 12-0 Under the total when coming off win over AFC foe 2016
* NY GIANTS’ Brian Daboll is on 18-8 Under the total surge as single-digit underdog
Trends Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 37.5)

* PHILADELPHIA’s Nick Sirianni is 11-3 SU but 2-11 ATS vs. poor teams being outscored by 4.5 PPG or more since 2022
* PHILADELPHIA’s Nick Sirianni boasts a 18-2 SU and 14-5 ATS record as a single-digit home favorite since 2021
* PHILADELPHIA is 19-6 Over the total when coming off a home win since 2021
* PHILADELPHIA is 18-3 Under the total in January games since 2011
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of NY GIANTS (+2.5 at PHI), also 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 37.5) 

(341) MIAMI at (342) NY JETS
* MIAMI is on 33-16 SU and 32-16 ATS surge vs. teams with a losing record since 2019
* MIAMI is 36-22 ATS (62.1%) vs. divisional opponents since 2015
Trend Match: PLAY MIAMI (-1 at NYJ)

* NY JETS’ Aaron Rodgers is 19-5 SU and ATS with his team coming off a divisional loss since 2010
* NY JETS’ Aaron Rodgers is 12-2 Over the total in January games since 2017
* NY JETS’ Aaron Rodgers is 13-5 Under the total vs. teams with a better record since 2014
* NY JETS’ Aaron Rodgers is 5-4 SU and 6-3 ATS (66.7%) as a home underdog (the average line was +2.5, team average PF: 24.7)
Trends Match: PLAY NY JETS (+1 vs. MIA), also 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 39) 

(345) KANSAS CITY at (346) DENVER
* KANSAS CITY is 15-4 SU and 17-2 ATS in its last 19 games as road underdog
* KANSAS CITY is 27-7 SU and 24-10 ATS when riding a three-game or more ATS winning streak since 2014
Trend Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (+10.5 at DEN)

* DENVER is 23-33 ATS (41.1%) as a favorite since 2017
* DENVER is 96-67 Under the total (58.9%) since 2015
* DENVER’s Sean Payton is 16-9 SU and 19-5 ATS in the last 25 games when coming off an outright road loss
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of DENVER (-10.5 vs. KC), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 39.5) 

(347) LA CHARGERS at (348) LAS VEGAS
* LA CHARGERS are 62-31 Under the total when coming off an outright win since 2013
* LA CHARGERS are on 24-9 Under the total surge in Sunday games
* LA CHARGERS’s Jim Harbaugh owns a solid 30-8 SU and 27-9 ATS NFL mark as a favorite of -3 to -7 points since 2011
Trends Match: PLAY LA CHARGERS (-5 at LVR), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 41.5)

* LAS VEGAS is 25-15 ATS (62.5%) vs. divisional opponents since 2018
* LAS VEGAS is 7-4 SU and 11-0 ATS when coming off a game allowing <=14 points since 2020
* LAS VEGAS is 28-8 Over the total vs. elite defenses allowing <19 PPG since 2013
Trends Match: PLAY LAS VEGAS (+5 vs. LAC), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 41.5) 

(357) SEATTLE at (358) LA RAMS
* SEATTLE is 20-9 Over the total vs. teams with a better record since 2011
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 38.5)

* LA RAMS are 50-38 Under the total (56.8%) since 2020
* LA RAMS’s Sean McVay is 7-5 SU but 2-9 ATS when his team plays with extra rest since 2022
Trends Match: FADE LA RAMS (+6.5 vs. SEA), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 38.5) 

(359) SAN FRANCISCO at (360) ARIZONA
* SAN FRANCISCO’s Kyle Shanahan is 25-14 Under the total as a single-digit underdog since 2017
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 42.5)

* ARIZONA is 18-32 ATS (36%) as a favorite since 2016
* ARIZONA’s Kyler Murray is 9-1 Over the total vs. teams with a losing record since 2022
Trends Match: FADE ARIZONA (-4 vs. SF), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 42.5) 

(363) MINNESOTA at (364) DETROIT
* MINNESOTA boasts an impressive 81-55 SU and 87-48-1 ATS record when playing on normal rest (seven days) since 2011
* MINNESOTA is 4-22 SU and 8-19 ATS as a divisional road underdog since 2010
* MINNESOTA’s Kevin O’Connell is 13-5 Over the total vs. teams with a winning record since 2022
* MINNESOTA’s Sam Darnold is 25-11 Under the total when his team plays with normal rest (seven days) since 2019
* MINNESOTA’s Sam Darnold is on 8-1 SU and ATS surge as an underdog
Trends Match: 2 PLAYS, 1 FADE of MINNESOTA (+2.5 at DET), also 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 56.5)

* DETROIT is on 18-10 SU and 20-7-1 ATS run vs. teams with a winning record
* DETROIT is 22-9-1 ATS (71%) at home since 2021
* DETROIT is 12-1 Over the total when playing as a favorite of less than 3 points since 2017
* DETROIT’s Dan Campbell is 13-7 Under the total in games after allowing 30+ points since 2015
* DETROIT’s Jared Goff is 15-5 SU and 15-4-1 ATS in divisional games since 2021
Trends Match: PLAY DETROIT (-2.5 vs MIN), also 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 56.5) 

NFL Late-Season Betting Systems 

NFL Late Regular Season System #1

These aren’t exactly “systems”, but these are the best line scenario records I was able to uncover from recent December/January regular season games:

Double-digit home favorites are 12-4 SU but 4-12 ATS (25%) in the last 16 tries
System Matches (FADE ALL ATS): BALTIMORE, TAMPA BAY, GREEN BAY, DENVER

Double-digit home favorites are on 43-12 SU but 22-32-1 ATS (40.7%) skid versus same conference opponents
System Matches (FADE ALL ATS): BALTIMORE, TAMPA BAY, GREEN BAY, DENVER

Road favorites 3 points or more are 147-125 ATS (54%) since 2014
System Matches (PLAY ALL ATS): BUFFALO, WASHINGTON, LA CHARGERS, SEATTLE

NFL Late Regular Season System #2
Since 2015, NFL teams with winning percentages of 83% or higher are just 50-37 SU and 32-54-1 ATS (37.2%) in December/January regular season games, including 11-26-1 ATS vs. divisional opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL ATS): KANSAS CITY (+10.5 at DEN), MINNESOTA (+2.5 at DET), DETROIT (-2.5 vs. MIN) 

NFL Late Regular Season System #3
In NFL December/January regular season games since 2012, home teams with at least four more wins than their opponent are 147-32 SU and 102-75 ATS (57.6%), including 121-17 SU and 81-56 ATS when favored by 6 points or more.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE, ATLANTA, TAMPA BAY, PHILADELPHIA, GREEN BAY 

NFL Late Regular Season System #4
In NFL December/January regular season games since 2010, road teams scoring fewer than 19 PPG and playing as dogs of +13 points or fewer are just 33-124 SU and 56-98 ATS (36.4%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND, CAROLINA, CHICAGO, NY GIANTS, JACKSONVILLE 

NFL Late Regular Season System #5
In NFL December/January regular season games since 2012, road underdogs allowing 24.0 PPG or more are just 36-158 SU and 83-107 ATS (43.7%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND, JACKSONVILLE, NY GIANTS, CAROLINA, SAN FRANCISCO 

NFL Late Regular Season System #6
Since 2010, NFL teams coming off close upset losses (<=10-point margin) on the road have gone 64-34 SU and 62-35 ATS (63.9%) in the follow-up game.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TENNESSEE, GREEN BAY

NFL Late Regular Season System #7
In NFL December/January regular season games since 2010, teams on losing streaks of at least three games outright and playing as underdogs or favorites of less than 3 points are just 45-107 SU and 62-91 ATS (40.5%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND, PITTSBURGH, NEW ENGLAND, TENNESSEE, CHICAGO, NEW ORLEANS, SAN FRANCISCO

NFL Late Regular Season System #8
In NFL December/January regular season games since 2010, teams on losing streaks of at least three games outright but boasting good defensive stats (allowing <21.5 PPG) are 24-32 SU but 36-20 ATS (64.3%).
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (+1.5 vs. CIN) 

NFL Late Regular Season System #9
In NFL December/January regular season games since 2010, teams on winning streaks of at least three games but not good offensively (scoring <22 PPG) have been terrible wagers, going 22-32 SU and 16-38 ATS (29.6%).
System Match (FADE): LA RAMS (+6.5 vs. SEA)

NFL Late Regular Season System #10
Since 2014, NFL teams coming off divisional losses and now playing on the road have gone 63-69 SU but 76-52 ATS (59.4%) in the follow-up game.
System Match (PLAY): CAROLINA (+8 at ATL)

NFL Rookie/Retread Coaching Systems

This material is from the VSiN piece entitled Analyzing the New NFL Head Coaches for 2024 detailing systems that apply to rookie coaches Dave Canales (Carolina), Jerod Mayo (New England), Mike Macdonald (Seattle), Brian Callahan (Tennessee) as well as re-tread coaches Raheem Morris (Atlanta), Jim Harbaugh (LA Chargers), and Dan Quinn (Washington).

Rookie Coach Systems

(Games this week: CAR(+8)-ATL, BUF-NE(+2.5), HOU-TEN(+1), SEA(-6.5)-LAR)

– In a trend that seems to make sense as far as familiarity is concerned, the more familiar the opponent, the less successful rookie head coaches have been: Divisional games 120-133-6 ATS (47.4%),
System Matches (FADE ALL): CAROLINA, NEW ENGLAND, TENNESSEE, SEATTLE

– Rookie head coaches have also struggled in the revenge spot. When taking on a team they lost to earlier that season, they are just 28-49 SU and 34-42-1 ATS (44.7%) in the follow-up contest.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CAROLINA, NEW ENGLAND, SEATTLE

Retread Coach Systems

(Games this week: WAS(-4.5)-DAL, CAR-ATL(-8), LAC(-5)-LVR)

– Like the rookie head coaches, retread head coaches have been far more proficient at covering point spreads on the road over the last decade. Here is the breakdown: Home games – 91-120-1 ATS (43.1%). Road/Neutral games – 104-111-1 ATS (48.4%).
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA

– Retread head coaches have been brutal bets as favorites but respectable in the underdog role in their first seasons with new franchise. As favorites since 2014, they’ve gone 100-70 SU but just 63-96-11 ATS, for 39.6%! As dogs (or pick ’em), 82-192 SU and 132-135-7 ATS (49.4%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON, ATLANTA, LA CHARGERS

– There seems to be a noteworthy trend of momentum that comes with these re-tread head coaches. Since 2014, when coming off a win or tie, these coaches have posted a modest 84-82-1 ATS (50.6%) record in their first seasons. When coming off a loss, the record has been an ugly 110-147-1 ATS (42.8%) in that same time span.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA

– Retread coaches have been solid in revenge scenarios over the last decade, going 26-20-3 ATS (56.5%) when having lost an earlier season game against an opponent. When having beat that team the first time around, these coaches have gone just 12-19-1 ATS (38.7%) in the rematch.
System Matches: PLAY – WASHINGTON
FADE – ATLANTA, LA CHARGERS 

NFL rookie quarterback systems

These systems take into account rookie quarterback records in their first seasons. They include game logs of any rookie that started seven or more games in that first season. The starters this week include Caleb Williams (Chicago), Michael Penix Jr. (Atlanta), Jayden Daniels (Washington), Drake Maye (New England), Spencer Rattler (New Orleans), and Bo Nix (Denver). 

(Games this week: CHI(+10)-GB, CAR-ATL(-8), WAS(-4.5)-DAL, BUF-NE(+2.5), NO(+13.5)-TB, KC-DEN(-10.5)) 

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Rookie quarterbacks have struggled on the road, particularly late in the season
The results of rookie quarterbacks on the road lately are startling. Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie starters have combined for a record of 122-117-1 ATS (51%) in home games but just 104-130-2 ATS (44.4%) in road/neutral games. In later season road games, week 10-EOY, they are just 35-106 SU and 57-82-2 ATS (41%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO, WASHINGTON, NEW ORLEANS

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #6 – Don’t fall for the big underdog point spreads with rookie quarterbacks
Since 2015, rookie starting quarterbacks facing underdog lines of 6.5 points or more have won just 19 games, going 19-122 SU and 54-83-4 ATS (39.4%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO, NEW ORLEANS

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #7 – Rookie quarterbacks have been solid bets in the home favorite role over the last four seasons
Since the start of the 2020 season, rookie starting quarterbacks have taken care of business in the home favorite role, going 41-11 SU and 38-13-1 ATS (74.5%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DENVER, ATLANTA 

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #8 – Rookie quarterbacks are not good bets as road chalk
Over the last 12 seasons, rookie starting quarterbacks have proven not worthy of backing as road favorites, going 25-20 SU but 20-24-1 ATS (45.5%).
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON 

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #10 – By type of opponent, divisional matchups have been tougher for rookie starting quarterbacks
Since 2015, rookie QBs are just 45-105 SU and 62-83-5 ATS (42.8%) versus divisional opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO, NEW ENGLAND, WASHINGTON, DENVER, NEW ORLEANS, ATLANTA

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #11 – Losses have tended to snowball for rookie QBs
In their last 150 starts with their teams coming off outright losses, rookie QBs have gone just 51-118 SU and 73-93-3 ATS (44%). This trend dates back to 2018.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO, NEW ENGLAND, ATLANTA, DENVER, NEW ORLEANS

NFL Veteran Quarterback Leading New Team System

These NFL betting trend systems take into account veteran quarterback records in their first season with a new team. They include game logs of 28 different veteran QBs since 2003 who have played at least eight years in the NFL and started extensively on a previous team. This week, there are three different QBs finding themselves in a new place: Aaron Rodgers (NY Jets), Carson Wentz (Kansas City), and Russell Wilson (Pittsburgh).

(Games this week: CIN-PIT(+1.5), KC(+10.5)-DEN, MIA-NYJ(+1)) 

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #4 – Non-Sunday games have been a struggle for veteran QBs with their new teams
Veteran quarterbacks have struggled under the spotlight of non-Sunday games lately, going 25-37 SU and 24-37-1 ATS (39.3%) in their last 62 such tries for their new teams. Moreover, they are 10-19-1 ATS (34.5%) in their last 30 Monday Night contests.
System Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH 

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #10 – Veteran quarterbacks are consistent bets as sizeable underdogs with new teams
Dating back to 2006, veteran starting quarterbacks in their first seasons with new teams have gone 44-76 SU but 66-49-5 ATS (57.4%) when playing as underdogs of 3 points or more.
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY 

NFL Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NFL betting trends systems search for extreme statistical performances in NFL games and detail the results of the follow-up game for these teams. 

BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
Teams that scored 45 or more points in their prior game have gone 21-15 SU but 11-25 ATS (30.6%) when favored at home by 3 or more points since 2012.
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-13.5 vs. NO)

CRAZY LOW SCORING GAMES COMMAND ATTENTION
NFL teams that have won a game despite scoring less than 12 points in the victory have carried the momentum through the next game with a 19-13 SU and 21-10-1 ATS (67.7%) record.
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-6.5 at LAR) 

Alternatively to #11 above, NFL teams that lose while allowing fewer than 12 points have also fared well in their follow-up game, going 18-9 SU and 21-6 ATS (77.8%) since 2015.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (+10 at GB) 

DON’T DISMISS TEAMS OFF DREADFUL OFFENSIVE OUTINGS
NFL teams that lost, scored 7 points or fewer, and had 10 or less first downs in a game have performed admirably as underdogs in the next contest, 20-36 SU but 36-20 ATS (64.3%) over the last decade-plus.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (*if they become underdogs at Tennessee, -1 currently) 

The following NFL beeting trends and systems come from a log of all the Thursday night (TNF), Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night (MNF) games since the start of the 2019 season. Only Thursday NIGHT games were included in the TNF study, not the day games played on Thanksgiving. The Sunday night games only included those games played on Sunday night, not all of the games covered by the NBC SNF crew which also included some Wednesday and Saturday contests. The games analyzed were only regular season games. 

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

·   Home favorites of less than a TD on SNF have gone the complete opposite direction, showing a record of 23-13 SU and 16-20 ATS (44.4%) in their last 36 after going 40-18-2 ATS prior.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-2.5 vs MIN)

·  Home-field advantage has been big in divisional SNF games of late, with hosts owning a 19-12 SU and 17-13-1 ATS (56.7%) record since 2019.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-2.5 vs. MIN)

·   Momentum has been big for hosts overall, as home teams on SNF coming off a loss in their last games are just 14-21 SU and 14-20-1 ATS (41.2%) in their last 35, but those coming off a win are on a current 27-7 SU and 21-13 ATS (61.8%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-2.5 vs. MIN)

·  Strangely, the league’s highest scoring teams have not fared well on SNF of late, as those scoring 30+ PPG are 13-9 SU but 5-17 ATS (22.7%) in their last 22 tries against teams not scoring that much.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-2.5 vs MIN)

·   More on unusual stat angles, the best defensive teams in the league, or those allowing less than 19 PPG, have gone just 17-26 SU and 19-24 ATS (44.2%) against worse defenses on SNF since 2019.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (+2.5 at DET) 

Bad SNF Team Trends
Detroit 4-5 SU and 3-6 ATS in the last nine
Trend Match (FADE): DETROIT (-2.5 vs. MIN) 

UNDER the total SNF Team Trends
Detroit 7-1-1 Under in the last nine
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIN-DET (o/u at 57) 

If you’ve picked up from each of the team trends sections that certain teams are consistently doing well or poorly, or are going Over or Under regularly, you’re right. Here are some overall primetime game trends that you’re going to want to consider:

UNDER the total PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trends
Minnesota 23-12 Under primetime record since 2015
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIN-DET (o/u at 57)

NFL Streaks Provide Some Advantages for Bettors

The following betting systems were part of an article released in Week 8 of the 2023 NFL season focusing on winning and losing streaks. There were 15 different systems cited. These listed are the ones that have qualifying plays for this week’s action.

NFL Streaks Betting System #2: NFL teams that have won their last three games outright, with the first being in upset fashion then being favored in the latter games are 90-19 SU and 70-39 ATS (64.2%) in the follow-up game when favored by 3 points or more.
System Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (-3 at NE)

NFL Streaks Betting System #3: NFL teams that have lost their last five ATS while being outscored by 50 points or more in that stretch are 28-52 SU but 51-28-1 ATS (64.6%) since 2007.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (+17.5 at BAL), TENNESSEE (+1 vs. HOU) 

NFL Streaks Betting System #13: NFL teams that have lost at least their last five games outright have gone 12-65 SU and 50-26-1 ATS (65.8%) as double-digit road underdogs since 2006.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (+17.5 at BAL), CHICAGO (+10 at GB)

Handicapping NFL Rematch Games

The following NFL betting trends and betting systems come from same-season rematch data over the last 13 seasons

Best NFL rematch teams lately
–  Cincinnati: 15-14 SU and 21-7 ATS in the last 28 rematch opportunities
–  Dallas: 20-5 SU and 18-7 ATS since 2017
–  Detroit: 15-3-1 ATS run in rematches
–  Miami 13-5 ATS in the last 18, including 8-2 in the last 10
–  New Orleans: 15-4 SU and ATS run
–  San Francisco: 14-7 SU and ATS in the last 21
–  Tennessee: 16-10 SU and 15-11 ATS surge
Trends Match (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI, DALLAS, DETROIT, MIAMI, NEW ORLEANS, SAN FRANCISCO, TENNESSEE

Worst NFL rematch teams lately
–  Arizona: 3-17 SU and 6-14 ATS skid in the last 20
–  Carolina: 14-22 SU and 12-24 ATS in rematches since 2014
–  Chicago: 3-15 ATS in the last 18
–  Cleveland: lengthy 9-29-1 ATS rematch skid in the last 39
–  Denver: 6-17 SU and 9-14 ATS in the last 23 tries
–  Minnesota current 7-12 SU and 6-13 ATS slide
–  NY Jets: 5-22 SU and 8-18-1 ATS skid
–  Philadelphia: just 6-12 SU and 4-13-1 ATS in the last 18 rematch games
Trends Match (FADE ALL): ARIZONA, CAROLINA, CHICAGO, CLEVELAND, DENVER, MINNESOTA, NY JETS, PHILADELPHIA

Worst NFL HOME rematch teams lately
–  Arizona: brutal 3-13 SU and 2-14 ATS home stretch
–  Baltimore: 7-21 ATS in the last 28 rematch home games
Trends Match (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE (-17.5 vs. CLE), ARIZONA (-4 vs SF)

Best NFL road rematch teams lately
–  Cincinnati: Won ten of the last 13 road rematches ATS
–  New Orleans: 16-2 ATS in the last 18 on road
–  San Francisco: 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS road in the last 10
Trends Match (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (-1.5 at PIT), NEW ORLEANS (+13.5 at TB), SAN FRANCISCO (+4 at ARI)

Worst NFL road rematch teams lately
–  Chicago: 2-10 ATS in the last 12 roadies
–  Houston: 6-8 SU and 4-10 ATS in the last 14 road rematches
–  Jacksonville: ugly 3-18 SU and 9-12 ATS road rematch skid
Trends Match (FADE ALL): CHICAGO (+10 at GB), HOUSTON (-1 at TEN), JACKSONVILLE (+4.5 at IND)

Best NFL revenge teams lately
–  New Orleans: 14-1 ATS stretch in revenge games
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+13.5 at TB)

Worst NFL revenge teams lately
–  Chicago: 5-21 SU and 7-18-1 ATS in the last 26 revenge tries
–  Indianapolis: 3-9 ATS skid in revenge mode
Trends Match (FADE ALL): CHICAGO (+10 at GB), INDIANAPOLIS (-4.5 vs JAX)

Best NFL teams in rematches after winning last game lately
–  Dallas: on 13-3 SU and 12-4 ATS run following up the head-to-head series win
Trend Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+4.5 vs. WAS)

High-scoring rematch teams
–  Kansas City: 14-12 Over run
–  Minnesota: Over in 13 of the last 16 rematch games
–  Dallas: 16-1 to the Over in the last 17 home rematch games
Trends Match (PLAY OVER ALL): WAS-DAL (o/u at 44), MIN-DET (o/u at 56.5), KC-DEN (o/u at 39.5)

Low-scoring rematch teams
–  Indianapolis: 13-5 Under run in home rematch games
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): JAX-IND (o/u at 44.5)

Noteworthy NFL head-to-head second-time (and 3rd) around trends
–  Baltimore: 6-3 SU and ATS in the last nine rematches vs. Cleveland
–  Buffalo: 12-4 ATS streak vs. Miami and New England since 12/31/17
–  Cincinnati: 6-1 ATS streak vs. PIT
–  Dallas: 8-1-1 Overs vs. WAS
–  Jacksonville: 8-1 ATS in the last nine rematch games vs. Indianapolis
Trends Match (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE, BUFFALO, CINCINNATI, DALLAS, JACKSONVILLE

Rematch Betting Systems

Teams that won by 21 or more points in the opening game between teams are 83-27 SU and 69-41 ATS (62.7%) in the rematch
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-2.5 vs. NYG), TAMPA BAY (-13.5 vs. NO)

In rematch games where point spreads have changed 17-points or more from the prior contest, the team that the line moved favorable towards is on a 37-1 SU and 27-11 ATS (71.1%) run
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (-10.5 vs. KC)

Teams that lost the prior game to an opponent but now have a record 20% or better outright have gone 42-15 SU and 36-21 ATS (63.2%) in the rematch contest
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (-17.5 vs. CLE), TENNESSEE (+1 vs. HOU), WASHINGTON (-4.5 at DAL)

Teams playing on the road in revenge mode and averaging 28.0 PPG or more offensively have gone 17-8 SU and 19-7 ATS (73.1%) in their last 26 revenge tries
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (-1.5 at PIT), WASHINGTON (-4.5 at DAL) 

This Week’s NFL Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis). 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LA RAMS +6.5 (+3.0)
2. KANSAS CITY +10.5 (+1.3)
3. PITTSBURGH +1.5 (+1.2)
4(tie). CAROLINA +8 (+0.5)
SAN FRANCISCO +4 (+0.5) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GREEN BAY -10 (+2.8)
2. MIAMI -1 (+2.4)
3. BALTIMORE -17.5 (+2.2)
4. LA CHARGERS -5 (+1.1)
5. INDIANAPOLIS -4.5 (+0.7)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAN FRANCISCO +4 (+2.9)
2. LAS VEGAS +5 (+2.1)
3. CAROLINA +8 (+1.4)
4(tie). CHICAGO +10 (+1.3)
DALLAS +4.5 (+1.3) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BUFFALO -3 (+6.0)
2(tie). DENVER -10.5 (+2.0)
PHILADELPHIA -2.5 (+2.0)
4. HOUSTON -1 (+1.9)
5. MIAMI -1 (+1.1) 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. WAS-DAL OVER 44 (+3.2)
2. CHI-GB OVER 41 (+2.5)
3. MIA-NYJ OVER 39 (+2.0)
4(tie). SEA-LAR OVER 38.5 (+1.0)
NYG-PHI OVER 37.5 (+1.0) 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIN-DET UNDER 56.5 (-4.2)
2. NO-TB UNDER 43.5 (-1.9)
3. CAR-ATL UNDER 48 (-1.7)
4. KC-DEN UNDER 39.5 (-1.6)
5. CIN-PIT UNDER 48.5 (-1.0) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAN FRANCISCO +4 (+5.4)
2. PITTSBURGH +1.5 (+4.6)
3. CAROLINA +13.5 (+2.9)
4. CLEVELAND +17.5 (+2.1)
5. CAROLINA +8 (+1.9) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LA CHARGERS -5 (+3.3)
2. DETROIT -2.5 (+2.7)
3. INDIANAPOLIS -4.5 (+2.1)
4. DENVER -10.5 (+1.8)
5. HOUSTON -1 (+1.2) 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIA-NYJ OVER 39 (+4.0)
2. WAS-DAL OVER 44 (+3.9)
3. CHI-GB OVER 41 (+3.2)
4. BUF-NE OVER 38 (+2.3)
5. SF-ARI OVER 42.5 (+0.9) 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIN-DET UNDER 56.5 (-3.5)
2. CAR-ATL UNDER 48 (-2.0)
3. CLE-BAL UNDER 41.5 (-1.5)
4. JAX-IND UNDER 44.5 (-1.4)
5. NO-TB UNDER 43.5 (-1.3) 

These are the top head-to-head series NFL betting trends between teams from recent years’ action:

(343) CLEVELAND at (344) BALTIMORE
* CLEVELAND is 9-5 ATS in the last 14 at Baltimore
Trend Match: PLAY CLEVELAND ATS 

(355) CINCINNATI at (356) PITTSBURGH
* Over the total is 3-1 in the last four of the CIN-PIT series at Pittsburgh
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total

(337) BUFFALO at (338) NEW ENGLAND
* Underdogs are 6-3 ATS in the last nine of the BUF-NE series at Foxboro
Trend Match: PLAY NEW ENGLAND ATS 

(351) CAROLINA at (352) ATLANTA
* ATLANTA is on a 6-3 ATS run hosting Carolina
Trend Match: PLAY ATLANTA ATS 

(339) CHICAGO at (340) GREEN BAY
* GREEN BAY has won the last five ATS hosting Chicago
Trend Match: PLAY GREEN BAY ATS

(361) HOUSTON at (362) TENNESSEE
* UnderR the total is 7-1 in the last eight of the HOU-TEN series at Tennessee
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total 

(349) JACKSONVILLE at (350) INDIANAPOLIS
* JACKSONVILLE is on a 6-2 ATS surge at Indianapolis
Trend Match: PLAY JACKSONVILLE ATS

(335) NEW ORLEANS at (336) TAMPA BAY
* NEW ORLEANS has won the last six ATS at Tampa Bay
Trend Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS ATS 

(353) WASHINGTON at (354) DALLAS
* Over the total is 8-1 in the last nine of the WAS-DAL series in Dallas
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(365) NY GIANTS at (366) PHILADELPHIA
* NY GIANTS are on a 6-2 ATS run at Philadelphia
Trend Match: PLAY NY GIANTS ATS 

(341) MIAMI at (342) NY JETS
* MIAMI is on a 5-1 ATS run at NY Jets
Trend Match: PLAY MIAMI ATS

(345) KANSAS CITY at (346) DENVER
* DENVER has won the last three ATS hosting Kansas City
Trend Match: PLAY DENVER ATS 

(347) LA CHARGERS at (348) LAS VEGAS
* LAS VEGAS has won the last three ATS hosting LA Chargers
Trend Match: PLAY LAS VEGAS ATS

(357) SEATTLE at (358) LA RAMS
* Under the total is 6-2 in the last eight of the SEA-LAR series in Los Angeles
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total 

(359) SAN FRANCISCO at (360) ARIZONA
* Under the total is 5-2 in the last seven of the SF-ARI series in Arizona
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total 

(363) MINNESOTA at (364) DETROIT
* The last five games of the MIN-DET rivalry in Detroit went Over the total
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total

For more NFL Week 18 best bets, visit the NFL Week 18 betting hub, exclusively on VSiN.

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Steve Makinen
Steve Makinen
As one of the original founders of StatFox, Steve Makinen has been in the business of sports betting and data analysis for almost 25 years now. In his time in the industry, Steve has worked in a variety of capacities on both sides of the betting counter, from his early days of developing the StatFox business, to almost a decade of oddsmaking consulting for one of the world's leading sportsbooks, to his last seven years as Point Spread Weekly and Analytics Director with VSiN. Steve has always believed that number crunching and handicapping through foundational trends and systems is the secret to success and he shares this data with VSiN readers on a daily basis for all of the major sports.

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