Week 18 NFL Betting Trends:
The following NFL betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NFL games of Week 18. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFL board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NFL betting trends and systems for this week’s NFL games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* In Post Thanksgiving Day games where there is win advantage of at least four season wins for the home team and they are favored but not by more than 7 points, these hosts boast an incredible 41-6 SU and 35-11 ATS (76.1%) record since Christmas 2016, and are currently riding a 16-0 SU and 15-1 ATS streak!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-4.5 vs WAS), BUFFALO (-7 vs NYJ)
* Cincinnati: 12-0 ATS rematch streak vs. CLE
Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (-7.5 vs CLE)
* NY GIANTS are 14-0 Under the total when coming off a win over an AFC foe since 2016
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DAL-NYG (o/u at 51.5)
* INDIANAPOLIS has felt good at Houston lately, going 9-3-1 SU and 11-1-1 ATS in the last 13 visits to NRG Stadium
Trend Match (PLAY): INDIANAPOLIS (+10.5 at HOU)
* NFL teams coming off a game with a -5 turnover differential or worse and then having to play away from home have gone just 5-18 SU and 3-20 ATS (13%) in their last 23 tries.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (+3 at CHI)
* NFL teams that have won their last five games outright or more have gone 53-14 SU and 41-24-2 ATS (63.1%) since 2003 as road favorites against divisional opponents.
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-1.5 at SF)
* Since 2008, rookie starting quarterbacks laying 7 points or more have gone 33-1 SU and 22-11-1 ATS (66.7%)!
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-7.5 vs GB)
#1 TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the MAKINEN EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS: BAL-PIT OVER 40.5 (projections have line at 43.1)
NFL Team/Coach/QB Specific Situational Trends
These are some of the top situational NFL betting trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action:
(345) CAROLINA (8-8) at (346) TAMPA BAY (7-9)
* TAMPA BAY’s Todd Bowles is 14-7 Over the total vs. teams with a better record since 2017
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CAR-TB (o/u at 43.5)
* TAMPA BAY’s Baker Mayfield is 16-12 SU but 7-21 ATS as a home favorite since 2020
* TAMPA BAY is 31-41 ATS (43.1%) when coming off a SU loss since 2016
Trends Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-2.5 vs CAR)
(361) SEATTLE (13-3) at (362) SAN FRANCISCO (12-4)
* SEATTLE’s Sam Darnold is 14-11 SU and 10-14-1 ATS in the last 25 starts vs. teams with losing records
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-1.5 at SF)
* SAN FRANCISCO’s Brock Purdy is 5-6 SU and 2-9 ATS in the last 11 starts following up a game in which his team scored 30+ points
* SAN FRANCISCO’s Kyle Shanahan is on an6-7 SU and 2-11 ATS skid when coming off a home win
Trends Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (+1.5 vs SEA)
* SAN FRANCISCO’s Brock Purdy is on 9-5 Over the total surge vs. divisional opponents
* SAN FRANCISCO’s Kyle Shanahan is 27-17 Under the total as a single-digit underdog since 2017
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in SEA-SF (o/u at 47.5)
(335) GREEN BAY (9-6) at (336) MINNESOTA (8-8)
* GREEN BAY is 24-16-1 ATS (60%) vs. divisional opponents since 2019
* GREEN BAY’s Matt Lafleur boasts an impressive record of 13-7 SU and 15-4-1 ATS as an underdog of +3 to +7 points since 2019
* MINNESOTA is 23-13 SU but only 12-24 ATS in its last 36 games as a home favorite
Trends Match (PLAY): GREEN BAY (+7 at MIN)
* MINNESOTA’s Kevin O’Connell is 18-11 Over the total vs. teams with a winning record since 2022
* MINNESOTA is 65-54 Over the total (54.6%) since 2019
Trends Match (PLAY OVER): GB-MIN (o/u at 35.5)
(337) INDIANAPOLIS (8-8) at (338) HOUSTON (11-5)
* INDIANAPOLIS is 17-22 SU but 26-13 ATS vs. elite teams with point differentials of >=+4.5 PPG since 2015
* INDIANAPOLIS is 26-24 SU and 35-14 ATS vs. elite defenses allowing <19 PPG since 2010
Trends Match (PLAY): INDIANAPOLIS (+10.5 at HOU)
* HOUSTON’s DeMeco Ryans is on 12-3 Under the total streak as a home favorite
* HOUSTON’s CJ Stroud is 18-11 Under the total in the last 29 games with his team coming off a win
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): IND-HOU (o/u at 38.5)
(339) MIAMI (7-9) at (340) NEW ENGLAND (13-3)
* MIAMI is 40-24 ATS (62.5%) vs. divisional opponents since 2015
* MIAMI is 56-44 ATS (56%) as an underdog since 2014
Trends Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+10.5 at NE)
(341) KANSAS CITY (6-10) at (342) LAS VEGAS (2-14)
* KANSAS CITY is 12-21-1 ATS (36.4%) vs. divisional opponents since 2020
* KANSAS CITY is 57-44-1 ATS (56.4%) in road/neutral games since 2014
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of KANSAS CITY (-5.5 at LVR)
* LAS VEGAS is 40-56 ATS (41.7%) when coming off a SU loss since 2015
* LAS VEGAS is 27-19 ATS (58.7%) vs. divisional opponents since 2018
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of LAS VEGAS (+5.5 vs KC)
(343) DETROIT (8-8) at (344) CHICAGO (11-5)
* DETROIT is 16-10 SU and 20-7 ATS when playing with extra rest (>7 days) since 2019
* DETROIT is on a 21-15 SU and 23-12-1 ATS run vs. teams with a winning record
* DETROIT’s Dan Campbell is on a 15-2 SU and 14-3 ATS streak coming off an outright loss
* DETROIT’s Jared Goff is 11-14 SU but 18-7 ATS as a single-digit underdog since 2021
* DETROIT’s Jared Goff is 17-9 SU and 17-8-1 ATS in divisional games since 2021
* CHICAGO is 26-36-1 ATS (41.9%) when coming off a SU loss since 2019
* CHICAGO is 11-27 SU and 13-25 ATS versus divisional opponents since 2019
Trends Match (PLAY): DETROIT (+3 at CHI)
(347) NY JETS (3-13) at (348) BUFFALO (11-5)
* NY JETS are 20-39 ATS (33.9%) vs. divisional opponents since 2016
* NY JETS own ugly 12-52 SU and 21-41 ATS record as road underdogs since 2016
Trends Match (FADE): NY JETS (+7 at BUF)
* BUFFALO’s Sean McDermott is 29-16 Under the total when coming off an outright loss since 2017
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYJ-BUF (o/u at 38.5)
(349) BALTIMORE (8-8) at (350) PITTSBURGH (9-7)
* BALTIMORE is 48-26 ATS (64.9%) in road/neutral games since 2017
* BALTIMORE’s Lamar Jackson is 33-11 SU and 28-15 ATS in a game following up scoring 30+ points since 2018
Trends Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-3.5 at PIT)
* PITTSBURGH’s Mike Tomlin is on a 34-28 SU and 40-19-1 ATS run as a single-digit underdog
* PITTSBURGH’s Aaron Rodgers is 20-6 SU and ATS with his team coming off a divisional loss since 2010
Trends Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (+3.5 vs BAL)
* BALTIMORE’s John Harbaugh is 17-6 Under the total in January games since 2012
* PITTSBURGH’s Aaron Rodgers is 13-2 Over the total in January games since 2017
* PITTSBURGH is 109-78 Under the total (58.3%) since 2015
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 2 PLAYS UNDER in BAL-PIT (o/u at 40.5)
(351) CLEVELAND (4-12) at (352) CINCINNATI (6-10)
* CLEVELAND is 5-22 SU and 4-23 ATS when coming off a game having allowed <=14 points since 2014
* CLEVELAND is 24-41 ATS (36.9%) vs. divisional opponents since 2015
* CLEVELAND’s Kevin Stefanski is on a 7-22 SU and 6-21 ATS slide when coming off an outright win
* CINCINNATI is 75-61 SU and 83-53 ATS when playing on normal rest (7 days) since 2012
Trends Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (-7.5 vs CLE)
* CLEVELAND’s Kevin Stefanski is 18-12 Under the total vs. teams with a losing record since 2020
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-CIN (o/u at 44.5)
(353) DALLAS (7-8) at (354) NY GIANTS (3-13)
* DALLAS is 29-12 SU and 25-16 ATS vs. teams with a losing record since 2020
* DALLAS is 24-19 ATS (55.8%) in road/neutral games since 2021
* DALLAS’ Dak Prescott is 34-6 SU and 30-10 ATS in divisional games since 2017
* DALLAS’ Dak Prescott is 19-8 SU and 18-9 ATS when his team is playing with extra rest (>7 days) since 2016
* DALLAS’ Dak Prescott is 4-8 SU and 3-9 ATS (25%) in January. The average line was -3.1, Team average PF: 24.9
Trends Match: 4 PLAYS, 1 FADE of DALLAS (-3.5 at NYG)
* NY GIANTS are 61-38 Under the total (61.6%) since 2020
* NY GIANTS are 26-9 Under the total as home underdogs since 2020
* NY GIANTS are 14-0 Under the total when coming off a win over an AFC foe since 2016
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): DAL-NYG (o/u at 51.5)
(355) WASHINGTON (4-12) at (356) PHILADELPHIA (11-5)
* WASHINGTON is 24-40 ATS (37.5%) when coming off a SU loss since 2019
* WASHINGTON is 19-34 ATS (35.8%) vs. divisional opponents since 2017
Trends Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+4.5 at PHI)
* PHILADELPHIA’s Nick Sirianni is 15-4 SU but 6-12 ATS vs. poor teams being outscored by 4.5 PPG or more since 2022
* PHILADELPHIA’s Nick Sirianni boasts a 26-4 SU and 20-9 ATS record as a single-digit home favorite since 2021
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of PHILADELPHIA (-4.5 vs WAS)
* PHILADELPHIA is 20-5 Under the total in January games since 2011
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): WAS-PHI (o/u at 38.5)
(357) NEW ORLEANS (6-10) at (358) ATLANTA (7-9)
* NEW ORLEANS is 41-26 ATS (61.2%) in road/neutral games since 2018
* NEW ORLEANS is 24-10 SU and 23-11 ATS when riding a 3-game or more ATS winning streak since ‘11
* ATLANTA is 60-51 SU but 40-71 ATS as a single-digit favorite since 2012
* ATLANTA’s Raheem Morris is on a 15-20 SU and 13-22 ATS slide in home games
* ATLANTA’s Kirk Cousins is 20-12 SU and 9-23 ATS as a home favorite since 2019
Trends Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+3 at ATL)
* ATLANTA’s Kirk Cousins is 20-9 Over the total as a single-digit home favorite since 2019
* ATLANTA is 21-6 Under the total on short rest (<7 days) since 2012
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in NO-ATL (o/u at 45.5)
(359) ARIZONA (3-13) at (360) LA RAMS (11-5)
* ARIZONA is 13-23 ATS (36.1%) vs. divisional opponents since 2020
* ARIZONA is 35-25 ATS (58.3%) in road/neutral games since 2019
* ARIZONA is 35-26 ATS (57.4%) as an underdog since 2021
Trends Match: 2 PLAYS, 1 FADE of ARIZONA (+7.5 at LAR)
* LA RAMS are 16-8 SU and 17-6 ATS when playing on short rest (<7 days) since 2018
* LA RAMS are 28-16 ATS (63.6%) when coming off a SU loss since 2019
Trends Match (PLAY): LA RAMS (-7.5 vs ARI)
* LA RAMS are 58-49 Under the total (54.2%) since 2020
* LA RAMS’ Matthew Stafford is 22-12 Over the total with his team playing on short rest (<7 days) since 2012
* ARIZONA’s Jonathan Gannon is on 10-3 Over the total streak vs. elite teams with winning percentages >=66.7%
Trends Match: 2 PLAYS OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in ARI-LAR (o/u at 46.5)
(363) LA CHARGERS (11-5) at (364) DENVER (13-3)
* DENVER is 26-42 ATS (38.2%) as a favorite since 2017
Trend Match (FADE): DENVER (-12.5 vs LAC)
* LA CHARGERS are on 30-15 Under the total surge in Sunday games
* DENVER is 107-74 Under the total (59.1%) since 2015
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): LAC-DEN (o/u at 37.5)
(365) TENNESSEE (3-13) at (366) JACKSONVILLE (12-4)
* TENNESSEE is 22-18 SU and 24-15 ATS when coming off a home loss since 2015
* TENNESSEE is on a 10-41 SU and 14-36-1 ATS skid in Sunday games
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of TENNESSEE (+12.5 at JAX)
* JACKSONVILLE’s Trevor Lawrence is on a 1-6 SU and ATS skid vs. teams with poor defenses allowing >=27 PPG
* JACKSONVILLE is 25-30 ATS (45.5%) as a favorite since 2018
Trends Match (FADE): JACKSONVILLE (-12.5 vs TEN)
NFL Late-Season Betting Systems
NFL PTD Betting System #1 – There have been a couple of sweet line range spots in which to bet late regular-season home favorites in post-Thanksgiving action recently. When they’ve been -1 to -2.5, they’ve gone 57-42 SU and 54-44 ATS (55.1%) since 2015. When they’ve been in the -3.5 to -7 line range, they’ve gone 147-87 SU and 113-80 ATS (58.5%), since New Year’s ‘17.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): -1 to -2.5 line range – TAMPA BAY (-2.5 vs CAR)
-3.5 to -7 line range – MINNESOTA (-7 vs GB), BUFFALO (-7 vs NYJ), PHILADELPHIA (-4.5 vs WAS)
NFL PTD Betting System #2 – On late-season totals, there has been a PTD opportunity in games with the lowest numbers, as those games with posted totals of 40 or less have gone Over at an 83-70 (54.2%) rate since 2015.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): GB-MIN (o/u at 35.5), IND-HOU (o/u at 38.5), KC-LVR (o/u at 36.5), NYJ-BUF (o/u at 38.5), WAS-PHI (o/u at 38.5), LAC-DEN (o/u at 37.5)
NFL PTD Betting System #5 – NFL PTD teams coming off a game in which they lost by a TD or less as a 7-point or more favorite have bounced back well, going 27-12 SU and 23-16 ATS (59%) in the follow-up contest since 2015.
System Match (PLAY): LA RAMS (-7.5 vs ARI)
NFL PTD Betting System #6 – Losing to a non-divisional conference foe at home can prove to be a negative momentum builder for NFL PTD teams, especially when hitting the road as an underdog the next week, as these teams have gone just 20-60 SU and 30-50 ATS (37.5%) in the follow-up game since 2015.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CAROLINA (+2.5 at TB), LA CHARGERS (+12.5 at DEN)
NFL PTD Betting System #7 – NFL PTD teams coming off close upset losses (<=10-point margin) on the road have gone 55-39 SU and 54-39 ATS (58.1%) in the follow-up game.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (-2.5 vs CAR), LA RAMS (-7.5 vs ARI), PITTSBURGH (+3.5 vs BAL)
NFL PTD Betting System #9 – NFL PTD teams scoring less than 17 points in a road loss have been big Under teams in the follow-up game, particularly as home underdogs, as they are 65-49 Under the total (57%) in this situation dating back to 2015.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): BAL-PIT (o/u at 40.5)
NFL PTD Betting System #10 – NFL PTD teams allowing 30 points or more in a road loss have been big Under teams in the follow-up game, going 138-100 Under the total (58%) in the next contest since 2016.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): DET-CHI (o/u at 50.5), ARI-LAR (o/u at 46.5)
NFL PTD Betting System #11 – There is a dangerous late-season spot for red-hot home teams (on winning streaks of 3 games or more) in NFL PTD games, and that is when they are not favored by a lot (<7 points) or underdog against a divisional rival. These teams have gone just 24-22 SU and 17-27 ATS (38.6%) dating back to 2015.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (+1.5 vs SEA), PHILADELPHIA (-4.5 vs WAS), ATLANTA (-3 vs NO)
NFL PTD Betting System #12 – Another winning streak killer comes in PTD games when teams on winning streaks of 4 games or more hit the road and aren’t favored by a big amount (>7 points) or are underdogs. These teams have gone 40-45 SU and 34-50 ATS (40.5%) dating back to 2016.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SEATTLE (-1.5 at SF), NEW ORLEANS (+3 at ATL)
NFL PTD Betting System #13 – In NFL PTD games since 2010, teams on losing streaks of at least three games outright but boasting good defensive stats (allowing <21.5 PPG) are 25-39 SU but 41-23 ATS (64.1%).
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-5.5 at LVR)
NFL PTD Betting System #14 – In NFL PTD games since 2010, teams on winning streaks of at least three games but not good offensively (scoring <22 PPG) have been terrible wagers, going 27-34 SU and 22-39 ATS (36.1%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA (-7.5 vs GB), ATLANTA (+3 vs NO), NEW ORLEANS (+3 at ATL)
NFL PTD Betting System #15 – Concerning late-season won-lost records, in PTD games where there is only one-win difference between the opponents, and oddsmakers have installed the team with the better record as a favorite of 3 points or more, that favored team is 75-21 SU and 60-34 ATS (63.8%) since 2017.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-3 vs NO)
NFL PTD Betting System #16 – Again on late season won-lost records, in PTD games where there is win advantage of at least four season wins for the home team and they are favored but not by more than 7 points, these hosts boast an incredible 41-6 SU and 35-11 ATS (76.1%) record since Christmas 2016, and are currently riding a 16-0 SU and 15-1 ATS streak!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-4.5 vs WAS), BUFFALO (-7 vs NYJ)
NFL PTD Betting System #17 – Not surprisingly, some of the worst teams to back late in the season are those that can’t score well and are on the road, as teams averaging less than 19 PPG offensively and playing on the road in PTD games have struggled to a 53-150 SU and 80-120 ATS (40%) record since 2015.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CAROLINA (+2.5 at TB), NY JETS (+7 at BUF), NEW ORLEANS (+3 at ATL), TENNESSEE (+12.5 at JAX), CLEVELAND (+7.5 at CIN)
NFL Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NFL games and detail the results of the follow-up game for these teams.
TURNOVERS ARE A KEY HANDICAPPING STATISTIC
NFL teams coming off a game with a +6 turnover differential or better have naturally been bad betting options the next week, going 6-8 SU and 4-9-1 ATS (30.8%) in their last 14 tries.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-7.5 vs GB)
NFL teams coming off a game with a -5 turnover differential or worse and then having to play away from home have gone just 5-18 SU and 3-20 ATS (13%) in their last 23 tries.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (+3 at CHI)
Sunday Night Football Team Trends and Systems for the NFL
The following NFL betting trends and systems come from a log of all the Sunday night (SNF) since the start of the 2019 season. The games analyzed were only regular-season games.
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Home underdogs have been competitive on Sunday night football, going 20-27-1 SU but 27-19-2 ATS (58.7%) dating back to 2017.
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (+3.5 vs BAL)
Home field advantage has been big in divisional SNF games of late, with hosts owning a 20-13 SU and 18-14-1 ATS (56.3%) record since 2019.
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (+3.5 vs BAL)
SNF teams coming off of losses have proven not ready for the big time, as they have gone just 15-32 SU and 17-30 ATS (36.2%) in their last 47 tries against teams off a win.
System Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (+3.5 vs BAL)
Momentum has been big for hosts overall, as home teams on SNF coming off a loss in their last games are just 16-27-1 SU and 18-25-1 ATS (41.9%) in their last 44, but those coming off a win are on a current 32-11 SU and 25-18 ATS (58.1%) surge.
System Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (+3.5 vs BAL)
If you’ve picked up from each of the team trends sections that certain teams are consistently doing well or poorly, or are going Over or Under regularly, you’re right. Here are some overall primetime game trends that you’re going to want to consider:
Good PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trend
Baltimore 29-16 SU and 26-18-1 ATS L45
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-3.5 at PIT)
NFL Streaks Provide Some Advantages for Bettors
The following betting systems focus on winning and losing streaks. Below are the ones that have qualifying plays for this week’s action.
NFL Streaks Betting System #1: NFL teams that have lost their last three games ATS, all when favored, are on a 50-24 SU and 40-32-2 ATS (55.6%) run when favored in the next game as well.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (-2.5 vs CAR), DALLAS (-3.5 at NYG)
NFL Streaks Betting System #11: NFL teams that have won their last five games outright or more have gone 53-14 SU and 41-24-2 ATS (63.1%) since 2003 as road favorites against divisional opponents.
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-1.5 at SF)
NFL Streaks Betting System #12: NFL teams that have lost at least their last three games outright have gone 68-43 SU but 44-63-4 ATS (41.1%) when favored by 3 points or more since 2013.
System Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (-5.5 at LVR)
ALSO WATCH FOR TAMPA BAY vs CAR, -2.5 CURRENTLY
NFL Streaks Betting System #13: NFL teams that have lost at least their last five games outright have gone 13-70 SU but 53-29-1 ATS (64.6%) as double-digit road underdogs since 2006.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANAPOLIS (+10.5 at HOU)
Handicapping NFL Rematch Games
The following trends and betting systems come from same season rematch data over the last 14 seasons
Best NFL rematch teams lately
– Cincinnati: 16-16 SU and 21-10 ATS in the last 31 rematch opportunities
– Dallas: 22-6 SU and 20-8 ATS since 2017
– Detroit: 16-5-1 ATS run in rematches
– Miami 15-6 ATS in the last 21, incl 10-3 in the last 13
– New Orleans: 17-5 SU and 18-4 ATS run
– San Francisco: 15-9 SU and ATS in the last 24
– Tennessee: 16-13 SU and ATS surge
Trend Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI, DALLAS, DETROIT, MIAMI, NEW ORLEANS, SAN FRANCISCO, TENNESSEE
Worst NFL rematch teams lately
– Arizona: 4-19 SU and 7-16 ATS skid in the last 23
– Carolina: 16-23 SU and 14-25 ATS in rematches since 2014
– Chicago: 6-15 ATS in the last 21
– Cleveland: lengthy 11-30-1 ATS rematch skid in the last 42
– Denver: 9-17 SU and 10-16 ATS in the last 26 tries
– Minnesota: current 8-15 SU and 7-16 ATS slide
– NY Jets: 6-24 SU and 9-20-1 ATS skid
– Philadelphia: just 11-13 SU and 8-15-1 ATS in the last 24 rematch games
Trend Matches (FADE ALL): ARIZONA, CAROLINA, CHICAGO, CLEVELAND, DENVER, MINNESOTA, NY JETS, PHILADELPHIA
Best NFL HOME rematch teams lately
– Buffalo: 19-5 SU and 14-10 ATS in the last 24 home rematches, scoring 30 PPG
– Cincinnati: 13-5 ATS in the last 18 home rematch opportunities
– Jacksonville: 13-5 SU and 14-3-1 ATS in the last 18 home rematches
Trend Matches (PLAY ALL): BUFFALO, CINCINNATI, JACKSONVILLE
Worst NFL HOME rematch teams lately
– Chicago: 2-12 SU and 4-10 ATS in the last 14 as host
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO
Best NFL ROAD rematch teams lately
– Baltimore: 16-5 ATS in the last 21 rematch road games
– New Orleans: 18-2 ATS in the last 20 on road
Trend Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE, NEW ORLEANS
Best NFL REVENGE teams lately
– New Orleans: 16-1 ATS stretch in revenge games
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS
Worst NFL REVENGE teams lately
– Chicago: 8-21 SU and 10-18-1 ATS in in the last 29 revenge tries
– Cleveland: 6-12 SU and 6-11-1 ATS in the last 18 revenge games
– Indianapolis: 3-11 ATS skid in revenge mode
Trend Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO, CLEVELAND, INDIANAPOLIS
Best NFL teams in rematches after winning the last game lately
– Cincinnati: 11-5 SU and 10-6 ATS in the last 16 follow-up games
– Dallas: on 14-4 SU and 13-5 ATS run following up head–to-head series win
– San Francisco: 13-4 SU and 12-5 ATS in the last 17 when having won the initial outing
Trend Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI, DALLAS, SAN FRANCISCO
Worst NFL teams in rematches after winning the last game lately
– Carolina: 4-12 ATS in the last 16 after beating opponent’s initial outing
Trend Match (FADE): CAROLINA
High-scoring rematch teams
– Minnesota: Over in 13 of the last 20 rematch games
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): GB-MIN
Noteworthy NFL head-to-head second-time (and 3rd) around trends
– Cincinnati: 12-0 ATS streak vs. CLE
Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (-7.5 vs CLE)
– Houston: 15-1 UNDER’s vs. IND, also 4-12-1 ATS in L17
Trends Match: PLAY UNDER in IND-HOU (o/u at 38.5), also FADE HOUSTON (-10.5 vs IND)
– Kansas City: 11-1 SU in rematch games vs. Raiders (8-4 ATS)
Trend Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-5.5 at LVR)
– New Orleans: 9-1 SU and ATS run vs. Atlanta
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+3 at ATL)
– Tennessee: 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS run vs. Jacksonville
Trend Match (PLAY): TENNESSEE (+12.5 at JAX)
Rematch Betting Systems
1) Teams that won by 21 or more points in the opening game between teams are 90-28 SU and 72-46 ATS (61%) in the rematch
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY (-5.5 at LVR), DETROIT (+3 at CHI), LA RAMS (-7.5 vs ARI), JACKSONVILLE (-12.5 vs TEN)
2) In rematch games where point spreads have changed 17-points or more from the prior contest, the team that the line moved favorably towards is on a 39-1 SU and 28-12 ATS (70%) run
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR DENVER vs LAC IF REACHING -14.5 OR MORE
3) Teams playing on the road in revenge mode and averaging 28.0 PPG or more offensively have gone 21-9 SU and 21-10 ATS (67.7%) in their last 31 revenge tries
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-1.5 at SF)
NFL Rookie/Retread Coaching Systems
This material is from the VSiN piece entitled Analyzing the New NFL Head Coaches for 2025 detailing systems that apply to rookie coaches Ben Johnson (Chicago), Brian Schottenheimer (Dallas), Liam Coen (Jacksonville), Kellen Moore (New Orleans), and Aaron Glenn (NY Jets) as well as re-tread coaches Pete Carroll (Las Vegas) and Mike Vrabel (New England).
Rookie Coach Systems
(Games this week: DAL(-3.5)-NYG, DET-CHI(-3), TEN-JAX(-12.5), NO(+3)-ATL, NYJ(+7)-BUF)
Rookie head coaches have won as big favorites, but covering point spreads has been a different story. In fact, as favorites of 6 points or more since 2015, rookie head coaches are 56-12 SU, good for 82.4% outright, but have gone just 28-38-2 ATS, a covering rate of just 42.4%.
System Match (FADE): JACKSONVILLE
In a trend that seems to make sense as far as familiarity is concerned, the more familiar the opponent, the less successful rookie head coaches have been. Since 2015: Divisional games 123-138-4 ATS (47.1%).
System Match (FADE): DALLAS, CHICAGO, JACKSONVILLE, NEW ORLEANS, NY JETS
After wins, rookie coaches have done measurably worse in that same time frame, 64-80-7 ATS (44.4%) in their last 151.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DALLAS, JACKSONVILLE, NEW ORLEANS
Rookie head coaches have also struggled in the revenge spot. When taking on a team they lost to earlier that season, they are just 32-46 SU and 35-43 ATS (44.9%) in the follow-up contest since 2015.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO, NEW ORLEANS, NY JETS
Retread Coach Systems
(Games this week: KC-LVR(+5.5), MIA-NE(-10.5))
Retread head coaches have been brutal bets as favorites since 2015: 100-69 SU but just 66-93-11 ATS, for 41.5%!
System Match (FADE): NEW ENGLAND
When coming off a loss, the record has been an ugly 143-181 ATS (44.1%) since 2015.
System Match (FADE): LAS VEGAS
Retread coaches have been solid in revenge scenarios over the last decade, going 26-19 ATS (57.8%) when having lost an earlier-season game against an opponent. This trend is on a 15-5 ATS run in the last 20 games. When having beaten that team the first time around, these coaches have gone just 13-22-1 ATS (37.1%) in the rematch games since 2014.
System Match (PLAY): LAS VEGAS
System Match (FADE): NEW ENGLAND
NFL Rookie Quarterback Systems
These systems take into account rookie quarterback records in their first seasons. They include game logs of any rookie who started seven or more games in that first season. The starters this week include Cam Ward (Tennessee), Shedeur Sanders (Cleveland), Quinn Ewers (Miami), JJ McCarthy (Minnesota), Tyler Shough (NO Saints), Brady Cook (NY Jets), Riley Leonard (Indianapolis), and Jaxson Dart (NY Giants).
(Games this week: TEN(+12.5)-JAX, CLE(+7.5)-CIN, MIA(+10.5)-NE, NO(+3)-ATL, GB-MIN(-7.5), NYJ(+7)-BUF, IND(+10.5)-HOU, DAL-NYG(+3.5))
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Rookie quarterbacks have struggled on the road, particularly late in the season
The results of rookie quarterbacks on the road lately are startling. Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie starters have combined for a record of 152-139 ATS (52.2%) in home games but just 134-158 ATS (45.9%) in road/neutral games. In later season road games, week 10-EOY, they are just 47-116 SU and 70-91-2 ATS (43.5%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): TENNESSEE, CLEVELAND, MIAMI, NEW ORLEANS, NY JETS, INDIANAPOLIS
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #6 – Don’t fall for the big underdog point spreads with rookie quarterbacks
Since 2015, rookie starting quarterbacks facing underdog lines of 6.5-points or more have won just 26 games, going 26-141 SU and 67-96-4 ATS (41.1%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): TENNESSEE, CLEVELAND, MIAMI, NY JETS, INDIANAPOLIS
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #7 – Rookie QBs have been phenomenal in the big favorite role
Since 2008, rookie starting quarterbacks laying 7 points or more have gone 33-1 SU and 22-11-1 ATS (66.7%)!
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #8 – Rookie quarterbacks have been incredible bets in the home favorite role over the last five seasons
Since the start of the 2020 season, rookie starting quarterbacks have taken care of business in the home favorite role, going 44-16 SU and 41-18-1 ATS (69.5%).
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #9 – Rookie quarterbacks are not good bets as small road dogs
Over the last 12 seasons, rookie starting quarterbacks have proven not worthy of backing as small road underdogs, going 23-55 SU and 33-43-2 ATS (43.4%) when catching +4.5 points or fewer.
System Match (FADE): NEW ORLEANS
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #10 – By type of opponent, divisional matchups have been toughest for rookie starting quarterbacks
Since 2015, rookie QBs are just 56-118 SU and 74-95-4 ATS (43.8%) versus divisional opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TENNESSEE, CLEVELAND, MIAMI, MINNESOTA, NEW ORLEANS, NY JETS, INDIANAPOLIS, NY GIANTS
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #11 – Losses have tended to snowball for rookie QBs
In their last 211 starts with their teams coming off outright losses, rookie QBs have gone just 67-144 SU and 96-112-2 ATS (46.2%). This trend dates back to 2018.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TENNESSEE, NY JETS, INDIANAPOLIS
NFL Veteran Quarterback Leading New Team Systems
These systems take into account veteran quarterback records in their first season with a new team. They include game logs of 32 different veteran QBs since 2004 who have played at least eight years in the NFL and started extensively on a previous team. This week, there are two different QBs finding themselves in a new place: Aaron Rodgers (Pittsburgh) and Jacoby Brissett (Arizona).
(Games this week: ARI(+7.5)-LAR, BAL-PIT(+3.5))
NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Veteran quarterbacks thrive with their new teams at home
The results since 2005 of veteran quarterbacks playing with their new teams at home are quite impressive, as they have gone 132-99 SU and 119-101-11 ATS (54.1%).
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH
Strategies Using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published in the 2025 NFL Betting Guide, Steve Makinen outlined 12 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of Wednesday at 5:30 PM ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage.
Here is a quick tabulation on how DK bettors performed in the 2024 season:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 141-131 ATS (51.8%)
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 140-130 ATS (51.9%)
– Majority handle on totals: 143-133 (51.8%)
– Majority number of bets on totals: 147-131 (52.9%)
These are very good wrap up numbers by the standards that have been established in most of the similar reports I have done for other sports. Considering NFL betting is king, it’s nice to see recreational bettors like those at DraftKings holding their own. With that in mind, here are the systems with updated language and records heading into the 2025 season.
NFL DK Betting Splits system #1: Over the past two seasons, when more than 68% of the handle has been on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group is just 71-81 ATS (46.7%). The number for this “super-majority” in college football was closer to 75%. In other words, if you see over 2/3 of the handle backing one side in an NFL game this season, it’s consistently profitable to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN FRANCISCO, CINCINNATI, KANSAS CITY, CHICAGO, BUFFALO, LA CHARGERS
NFL DK Betting Splits system #2: In NFL divisional games of 2022-24, DK majority handle bettors have been awful, as this majority group is just 117-148 ATS (44.2%). With the obvious generality that public bettors love favorites, it’s clear that they don’t value the stakes of these rivalry games and what they mean for the competitors.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CAROLINA, SAN FRANCISCO, HOUSTON, CINCINNATI, DALLAS, ATLANTA, TENNESSEE, NEW ENGLAND, KANSAS CITY, CHICAGO, BUFFALO, PHILADELPHIA, ARIZONA, LA CHARGERS, BALTIMORE
NFL DK Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2 above, in that same time span, when the majority number of bets staked its side in an NFL divisional game, this majority group is just 118-150 ATS (44%).
NFL DK Betting Splits system #4: In NFL divisional games of 2022-24, DK majority handle bettors have been awful, as this majority group is just 117-148 ATS (44.2%). With the obvious generality that public bettors love favorites, it’s clear that they don’t value the stakes of these rivalry games and what they mean for the competitors.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CAROLINA, SAN FRANCISCO, GREEN BAY, HOUSTON, CINCINNATI, DALLAS, ATLANTA, JACKSONVILLE, NEW ENGLAND, KANSAS CITY, CHICAGO, BUFFALO, PHILADELPHIA, LA RAMS, LA CHARGERS, PITTSBURGH
NFL DK Betting Splits system #5: Since the start of the 2023 season, when the majority number of bets has backed road favorites for an ATS wager, these majority groups are actually 100-87 ATS (53.5%). I will tell you that there are only 15 games or fewer each year when this group will actually back the home dog. Watch this one closely as backing road favorites in the NFL has never been a consistent winning strategy.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): DALLAS, KANSAS CITY
NFL DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority handle was on road underdogs for an ATS wager over the last two years, these majority groups have surprisingly struggled, 27-36 ATS (42.9%). This goes against the logic I have discovered in other sports, which says that when the public goes “against the grain,” they can do well. Quite the opposite here. As you can see, it is rare, just 63 games in two full seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CAROLINA, TENNESSEE, ARIZONA, LA CHARGERS
NFL DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle and number of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games over the last two seasons, these majority groups are just 100-114 ATS (46.7%) and 101-111 ATS (47.6%), respectively. This set of games includes all the Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests. These numbers were improved along with the overall majority figures last year, but I wouldn’t expect that to continue.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CAROLINA, SAN FRANCISCO
NFL DK Betting Splits system #8: In another rare winning record, when the majority number of bets has backed the team with fewer season wins in a 2023 or 2024 NFL game for an ATS wager, this majority group was 46-38 ATS (54.8%). This has proven to be a situation in which going against the grain pays off.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO, LA CHARGERS
DK Betting Splits system #9: The average NFL total in 2023 was 43.0. Last year, it ballooned back up to 44.6. In games where the totals reached 46.5 or higher, and oddsmakers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, majority number of bettors have gauged these games incredibly well the last two years, going 96-72 ATS (60.8%)! We’ll see how that trend holds in 2025.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – SEA-SF, DAL-NYG, TEN-JAX, DET-CHI, ARI-LAR
DK Betting Splits system #11: The magic mark for super majority on handle for betting Overs was 74% or higher, and this group performed miserably in ’23 and ‘24 with a record of 46-69 (42.6%). To me, this has been a long-standing belief, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses. On number of bets, this same super majority percentage produced a slightly improved 30-37 (44.8%) record, still poor though.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL INSTEAD): NO-ATL, LAC-DEN
DK Betting Splits system #12: Call this one the Over trap, but when a super-majority (>=64%) of handle has been on the Over, but DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week, this majority group has lost big, going just 70-92 (43.2%) over the past three seasons. Almost as if they were trying to bait more people into taking the Over. This is a classic example of where those behind the counter are smarter than those trying to cash the tickets.
System Match (PLAY UNDER INSTEAD): LAC-DEN
This Week’s NFL Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GREEN BAY +7 (+2.1)
2. NY GIANTS +3.5 (+1.7)
3. DETROIT +3 (+1.3)
4. LAS VEGAS +5.5 (+1.1)
5. PITTSBURGH +3.5 (+1.0)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHILADELPHIA -4.5 (+2.8)
2(tie). NEW ENGLAND -10.5 (+2.0)
CINCINNATI -7.5 (+2.0)
4. ATLANTA -3 (+1.8)
5. LA RAMS -7.5 (+1.3)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NY GIANTS +3.5 (+3.7)
2. TENNESSEE +12.5 (+3.5)
3. CAROLINA +2.5 (+1.2)
4. DETROIT +3 (+1.1)
5. SAN FRANCISCO +1.5 (+1.0)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. KANSAS CITY -5.5 (+4.9)
2. LA RAMS -7.5 (+4.3)
3(tie). NEW ENGLAND -10.5 (+0.8)
MINNESOTA -7 (+0.8)
5. DENVER -12.5 (+0.7)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). BAL-PIT OVER 40.5 (+2.6)
WAS-PHI OVER 38.5 (+2.6)
3. SEA-SF OVER 47.5 (+1.9)
4. GB-MIN OVER 35.5 (+0.9)
5. LAC-DEN OVER 37.5 (+0.6)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NO-ATL UNDER 45.5 (-2.8)
2. KC-LVR UNDER 36.5 (-2.6)
3. CLE-CIN UNDER 44.5 (-1.8)
4. TEN-JAX UNDER 47.5 (-1.4)
5. CAR-TB UNDER 43.5 (-1.2)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GREEN BAY +7 (+3.7)
2. DETROIT +3 (+2.6)
3. INDIANAPOLIS +10.5 (+2.1)
4. NY GIANTS +3.5 (+1.6)
5. LAS VEGAS +5.5 (+0.9)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). PHILADELPHIA -4.5 (+1.7)
CINCINNATI -7.5 (+1.7)
3. ATLANTA -3 (+1.5)
4. BUFFALO -7 (+1.0)
5. NEW ENGLAND -10.5 (+0.8)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BAL-PIT OVER 40.5 (+3.0)
2. DET-CHI OVER 50.5 (+1.9)
3. SEA-SF OVER 47.5 (+1.5)
4. NYJ-BUF OVER 38.5 (+1.1)
5. ARI-LAR OVER 46.5 (+1.0)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). KC-LVR UNDER 36.5 (-3.8)
CLE-CIN UNDER 44.5 (-3.8)
3. TEN-JAX UNDER 47.5 (-2.1)
4. NO-ATL UNDER 45.5 (-1.8)
5. GB-MIN UNDER 35.5 (-1.0)
Top Head-to-Head Series NFL Betting Trends
These are the top head-to-head series NFL betting trends between teams from recent years’ action:
(345) CAROLINA at (346) TAMPA BAY
* Over the total has converted in the last five CAR-TB meetings at Raymond James Stadium
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CAR-TB (o/u at 43.5)
(361) SEATTLE at (362) SAN FRANCISCO
* Road teams are 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in the SEA-SF series since start of 2023 season
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-1.5 at SF)
(335) GREEN BAY at (336) MINNESOTA
* Favorites are 6-2 SU and ATS in the last eight of the Packers-Vikings divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-7.5 vs GB)
(337) INDIANAPOLIS at (338) HOUSTON
* INDIANAPOLIS has felt good at Houston lately, going 9-3-1 SU and 11-1-1 ATS in the last 13 visits to NRG Stadium
Trend Match (PLAY): INDIANAPOLIS (+10.5 at HOU)
* Under the total is 8-1 in the last nine of the series at Houston as well
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): IND-HOU (o/u at 38.5)
(339) MIAMI at (340) NEW ENGLAND
* MIAMI is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 games with New England, but did lose earlier this year
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+10.5 at NE)
(341) KANSAS CITY at (342) LAS VEGAS
* Over the total is 9-3 in the last 12 games where the Chiefs visit the Raiders
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): KC-LVR (o/u at 36.5)
(347) NY JETS at (348) BUFFALO
* BUFFALO is 4-0 SU and ATS in the last four games with NY Jets
Trend Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (-7 vs NYJ)
(349) BALTIMORE at (350) PITTSBURGH
* Underdogs are 6-5 SU and 9-0-2 ATS in the last 11 of Ravens-Steelers AFC North rivalry at Pittsburgh
Trend Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (+3.5 vs BAL)
(351) CLEVELAND at (352) CINCINNATI
* CINCINNATI is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 games hosting Cleveland
Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (-7.5 vs CLE)
(353) DALLAS at (354) NY GIANTS
* Under the total is 4-1 in the last five of the Cowboys-Giants set at MetLife Stadium
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DAL-NYG (o/u at 51.5)
(355) WASHINGTON at (356) PHILADELPHIA
* Over the total is 6-1 in the last seven of the WAS-PHI series
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): WAS-PHI (o/u at 38.5)
(357) NEW ORLEANS at (358) ATLANTA
* Underdogs are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings between NO and ATL
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+3 at ATL)
(359) ARIZONA at (360) LA RAMS
* Road teams are 5-2 ATS in the ARI-LAR set since the start of the 2022 season
Trend Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (+7.5 at LAR)
(363) LA CHARGERS at (364) DENVER
* Favorites are on 4-0 SU and ATS run in the Chargers-Broncos divisional series
Trend Match (PLAY): DENVER (-12.5 vs LAC)
(365) TENNESSEE at (366) JACKSONVILLE
* JACKSONVILLE is 4-1 SU and ATS in the last five games versus Tennessee
Trend Match (PLAY): JACKSONVILLE (-12.5 vs TEN)
