Week 3 NFL Betting Trends:
The following NFL betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NFL games of Week 3. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFL board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NFL betting trends and systems for this week’s NFL games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* NY Giants have had ten straight Unders on the Sunday Night Football stage, scoring just 10.9 PPG
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): KC-NYG (o/u at 45.5)
* Denver’s Sean Payton is on surges of 17-9 SU and 20-5 ATS when coming off an outright road loss
Trend Match (PLAY): DENVER (+2.5 at LAC)
* Since the start of the 2004 season, veteran starting quarterbacks playing their first seasons with new teams have performed terribly in the road favorite role, 46-35 SU but 29-51-1 ATS (36.3%).
System Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (-1.5 at NE)
* In non-conference games, retread coaches have really struggled, going just 15-28 ATS (34.9%) over the last three seasons.
System Match (FADE): LAS VEGAS (+3.5 at WAS)
* Over the total is 8-0 in the Cowboys-Bears series since 2007
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DAL-CHI (o/u at 50.5)
#1 TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen Bettors Ratings: HOU-JAX UNDER 44.5 (projections have total at 40.6)
* Teams gaining more than 6.75 yards per play in the first two weeks have continued their impressive play in Week 3 with a record of 20-8 SU and ATS (71.4%) since 2015.
System Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-4.5 vs DET)
*CHECK OUT MORE WEEK 3 SYSTEMS BELOW*
Avoid These Week 3 NFL Traps
These are systems that look at the NFL Week 3 slate while considering what the teams have accomplished in their first two games.
1. Teams that start out 0-2 SU in the NFL are 31-27 SU but 40-17-1 ATS (70.2%) against 1-1 teams in Week 3 since 2010
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CAROLINA (+5.5 vs ATL), HOUSTON (+1.5 at JAX), NEW ORLEANS (+7.5 at SEA), CHICAGO (+1.5 vs DAL)
2. Winless teams in the NFL are 23-35-1 SU but 39-20 ATS (66.1%) in Week 3 when playing as underdogs of +3.5 points or more since 2010
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+12.5 at BUF), CAROLINA (+5.5 vs ATL), CLEVELAND (+8.5 vs GB), NY JETS (+7 at TB), NEW ORLEANS (+7.5 at SEA), NY GIANTS (+6 vs KC)
3. Teams allowing more than 6.50 yards per play in the first two weeks have rebounded in Week 3 with a record of 27-16 SU and 28-15 ATS (65.1%) since 2015.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW ENGLAND (+1.5 vs PIT), CHICAGO (+1.5 vs DAL)
4. The league’s best defensive teams after two weeks, or those allowing 14 PPG or less so far, are 25-21 SU but just 14-31-1 ATS (31.1%) in Week 3 since 2005 when favored by 3 points or more.
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET, BUT WATCH FOR LA CHARGERS vs DEN (-2.5 currently)
5. Teams gaining more than 6.75 yards per play in the first two weeks have continued their impressive play in Week 3 with a record of 20-8 SU and ATS (71.4%) since 2015.
System Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-4.5 vs DET)
6. Since 2008, the league’s best undefeated teams after two weeks, those having outscored teams by 25 points or more, are 27-24 SU but 18-31-2 ATS (36.7%) in Week 3.
System Match (FADE): INDIANAPOLIS (-4.5 at TEN)
Strategies Using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published in the 2025 NFL Betting Guide, Steve Makinen outlined 12 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of Wednesday at 4:00 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage.
Here is a quick tabulation on how DK bettors performed in the 2024 season:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 141-131 ATS (51.8%)
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 140-130 ATS (51.9%)
– Majority handle on totals: 143-133 (51.8%)
– Majority number of bets on totals: 147-131 (52.9%)
These are very good wrap-up numbers by the standards that have been established in most of the similar reports I have done for other sports. Considering NFL betting is king, it’s nice to see recreational bettors like those at DraftKings holding their own. With that in mind, here are the systems with updated language and records heading into the 2025 season.
NFL DK Betting Splits system #1: Over the past two seasons, when more than 68% of the handle has been on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group is just 71-81 ATS (46.7%). The number for this “super-majority” in college football was closer to 75%. In other words, if you see over 2/3 of the handle backing one side in an NFL game this season, it’s consistently profitable to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BUFFALO, INDIANAPOLIS, ATLANTA, CLEVELAND, CINCINNATI, LA RAMS, NY JETS, LA CHARGERS, DALLAS, SAN FRANCISCO, KANSAS CITY, BALTIMORE
NFL DK Betting Splits system #2: In NFL divisional games of 2022-24, DK majority handle bettors have been awful, as this majority group is just 117-148 ATS (44.2%). With the obvious generality that public bettors love favorites, it’s clear that they don’t value the stakes of these rivalry games and what they mean for the competitors.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BUFFALO, INDIANAPOLIS, ATLANTA, HOUSTON, LA CHARGERS, SAN FRANCISCO
NFL DK Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2 above, in that same time span, when the majority number of bets staked its side in an NFL divisional game, this majority group is just 118-150 ATS (44%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): BUFFALO, INDIANAPOLIS, ATLANTA, HOUSTON, LA CHARGERS, SAN FRANCISCO
NFL DK Betting Splits system #4: In NFL non-conference games of 2023 and 2024, DK majority number of bets groups were actually quite sharp, going 79-64 ATS (55.2%). This is obviously quite the opposite performance level of #3 above, and unfortunately for bettors, there are two fewer non-conference tilts than divisional contests for each team on the schedule every year. Of course, if strategically playing both spots according to these systems, every game in either situation is an opportunity.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON, GREEN BAY, CINCINNATI, TAMPA BAY, KANSAS CITY, DETROIT
NFL DK Betting Splits system #5: Since the start of the 2023 season, when the majority number of bets have backed road favorites for an ATS wager, these majority groups are actually 100-87 ATS (53.5%). I will tell you that there are only 15 games or fewer each year when this group will actually back the home dog. Watch this one closely, as backing road favorites in the NFL has never been a consistent winning strategy.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): INDIANAPOLIS, ATLANTA, GREEN BAY, PITTSBURGH, DALLAS, KANSAS CITY
NFL DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority handle was on road underdogs for an ATS wager over the last two years, these majority groups have surprisingly struggled, 27-36 ATS (42.9%). This goes against the logic I have discovered in other sports, which says that when the public goes “against the grain,” they can do well. Quite the opposite here. As you can see, it is rare, just 63 games in two full seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LAS VEGAS, CINCINNATI, LA RAMS, NY JETS, HOUSTON, NEW ORLEANS
NFL DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle and number of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games over the last two seasons, these majority groups are just 100-114 ATS (46.7%) and 101-111 ATS (47.6%), respectively. This set of games includes all the Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests. These numbers were improved along with the overall majority figures last year, but I wouldn’t expect that to continue.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BUFFALO, KANSAS CITY
NFL DK Betting Splits system #8: In another rare winning record, when the majority number of bets has backed the team with fewer season wins in a 2023 or 2024 NFL game for an ATS wager, this majority group was 46-38 ATS (54.8%). This has proven to be a situation in which going against the grain pays off.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): HOUSTON
DK Betting Splits system #9: The average NFL total in 2023 was 43.0. Last year, it ballooned back up to 44.6. In games where the totals reached 46.5 or higher and odds makers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, majority number of bettors have gauged these games incredibly well the last two years, going 96-72 ATS (60.8%)! We’ll see how that trend holds in ‘25.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – MIA-BUF, DAL-CHI, DET-BAL
DK Betting Splits system #10: When 56% or more of the number of bets have been on the Under in an NFL game total over the last 2-1/2 seasons, this majority group has been quite sharp, 56-45 ATS (55.4%).
System Match (PLAY UNDER): LVR-WAS
DK Betting Splits system #11: The magic mark for super majority on handle for betting Overs was 74% or higher, and this group performed miserably in 2023 and 2024 with a record of 46-69 (42.6%). To me, this has been a long-standing belief, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses. On number of bets, this same super majority percentage produced a slightly improved 30-37 (44.8%) record, still poor though.
System Match (PLAY UNDER INSTEAD): DAL-CHI
Team/Coach/QB Specific Situational NFL Betting Trends
These are some of the top situational NFL betting trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action:
(301) MIAMI (0-2) at (302) BUFFALO (2-0)
* MIAMI’s Tua Tagovailoa is 1-10 SU and 2-9 ATS in his last 11 starts versus teams with winning records
* MIAMI is 36-24 ATS (60%) vs. divisional opponents since 2015
* MIAMI is 51-40 ATS (56%) as an underdog since 2014
Trends Match: 2 PLAYS, 1 FADE of MIAMI (+12.5 at BUF)
* BUFFALO’s Sean McDermott is 9-1 SU but 2-8 ATS as a double-digit favorite since 2022
Trend Match (FADE): BUFFALO (-12.5 vs MIA)
(451) INDIANAPOLIS (2-0) at (452) TENNESSEE (0-2)
* INDIANAPOLIS’s Shane Steichen is on a 13-3 SU and 12-4 ATS run vs. poor offensive teams scoring <19 PPG
Trend Match (PLAY): INDIANAPOLIS (-4.5 at TEN)
* TENNESSEE is 21-12 SU and 21-11 ATS when coming off a home loss since 2015
* TENNESSEE is on a 7-30 SU and 8-28-1 ATS skid in Sunday games
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of TENNESSEE (+4.5 vs IND)
(453) ATLANTA (1-1) at (454) CAROLINA (0-2)
* ATLANTA is 58-47 SU but 38-67 ATS as a single-digit favorite since 2012
* ATLANTA is on an 11-19 SU and 7-23 ATS skid on normal rest (7 days)
Trends Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-5.5 at CAR)
* ATLANTA’s Raheem Morris is on 10-7 Over the total surge vs. teams with a losing record
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-CAR (o/u at 43.5)
* CAROLINA is 18-29 ATS (38.3%) at home since 2019
* CAROLINA is on a 1-16 SU and 4-13 ATS slide vs. elite teams with PPG differentials >=+4.5
Trends Match (FADE): CAROLINA (+5.5 vs ATL)
(455) LAS VEGAS (1-1) at (456) WASHINGTON (1-1)
* LAS VEGAS is 29-8 Over the total vs. elite defenses allowing <19 PPG since 2013
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LVR-WAS (o/u at 44.5)
* LAS VEGAS is 35-48 ATS (42.2%) when coming off a SU loss since 2015
* LAS VEGAS is 37-50 ATS (42.5%) in road/neutral games since 2015
* LAS VEGAS’ Geno Smith is 7-9 SU but 10-6 ATS with his team coming off a double-digit loss since 2013
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 2 FADES of LAS VEGAS (+3.5 at WAS)
* WASHINGTON is 19-34 ATS (35.8%) when coming off a SU loss since 2019
* WASHINGTON’s Dan Quinn is 5-15 SU and 4-15 ATS vs. AFC since 2016
Trends Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (-3.5 vs LVR)
(457) GREEN BAY (2-0) at (458) CLEVELAND (0-2)
* GREEN BAY is 24-11 Over the total as a road favorite since 2015
* GREEN BAY’s Jordan Love is on 13-6 Over the total surge when his team is coming off a win
* CLEVELAND’s Kevin Stefanski is 22-11 Over the total vs. teams with a winning record since 2020
* CLEVELAND’s Joe Flacco is 20-5 Under the total with his team coming off a divisional loss since 2012
Trends Match: 3 PLAYS OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in GB-CLE (o/u at 41.5)
* GREEN BAY’s Matt Lafleur is 20-13 SU but 13-20 ATS as a single-digit favorite since 2021
Trend Match (FADE): GREEN BAY (-8.5 at CLE)
* CLEVELAND is 33-45 ATS (42.3%) at home since 2015
Trend Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+8.5 vs GB)
(459) CINCINNATI (2-0) at (460) MINNESOTA (1-1)
* CINCINNATI is 57-64 SU but 73-45 ATS on the road dating back to 2011
* CINCINNATI is 73-56 SU and 79-50 ATS when playing on normal rest (7 days) since 2012
* CINCINNATI is 25-15 ATS (62.5%) as an underdog since 2020
Trends Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+3 at MIN)
* MINNESOTA is 30-17 SU and 31-14 ATS versus AFC opponents since 2014
* MINNESOTA boasts an impressive 81-57 SU & 87-50-1 ATS record when playing on normal rest (7 days) since 2011
* MINNESOTA is 21-12 SU but only 10-23 ATS in its last 33 games as a home favorite
* MINNESOTA is 31-25 ATS (55.4%) when coming off a SU loss since 2014
Trends Match: 2 PLAYS, 2 FADES of MINNESOTA (-3 vs CIN)
* MINNESOTA is 58-47 Over the total (55.2%) since 2019
* MINNESOTA’s Kevin O’Connell is 13-7 Over the total vs. teams with a winning record since 2022
Trends Match (PLAY OVER): CIN-MIN (o/u at 41.5)
(461) LA RAMS (2-0) at (462) PHILADELPHIA (2-0)
* LA RAMS’ Matthew Stafford is 34-63 SU and 36-59 ATS vs. teams with winning records since 2011
* PHILADELPHIA is 14-4 SU and 15-3 ATS vs. elite defenses allowing <19 PPG since 2020
* PHILADELPHIA’s Nick Sirianni boasts a 23-2 SU and 17-7 ATS record as a single-digit home favorite since 2021
Trends Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-3.5 vs LAR)
* LA RAMS are 52-41 Under the total (55.9%) since 2020
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LAR-PHI (o/u at 44.5)
(463) PITTSBURGH (1-1) at (464) NEW ENGLAND (1-1)
* PITTSBURGH is 24-7 SU and 23-8 ATS coming off a game allowing 30+ points since 2013
* PITTSBURGH’s Aaron Rodgers is 10-13 SU and 6-17 ATS as a single-digit road favorite since 2021
* PITTSBURGH is 23-32 ATS (41.8%) as a favorite since 2018
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 2 FADES of PITTSBURGH (-1.5 at NE)
* NEW ENGLAND is 17-26-2 ATS (39.5%) as an underdog since 2021
Trend Match (FADE): NEW ENGLAND (+1.5 vs PIT)
* PITTSBURGH is 102-71 Under the total (59%) since 2015
* PITTSBURGH is 30-9 Under the total as a road favorite since 2014
* PITTSBURGH’s Aaron Rodgers is 22-8 Over the total as a single-digit road favorite since 2015
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 2 PLAYS UNDER PIT-NE (o/u at 44.5)
(465) NY JETS (0-2) at (466) TAMPA BAY (2-0)
* NY JETS own ugly 11-46 SU and 18-37 ATS record as road underdogs since 2016
* NY JETS are 12-30 ATS (28.6%) vs. non-conference foes since 2015
Trends Match (FADE): NY JETS (+7 at TB)
* TAMPA BAY’s Baker Mayfield is 14-9 SU but 7-16 ATS as a home favorite
since 2020
* TAMPA BAY is 38-51 ATS (42.7%) at home since 2014
* TAMPA BAY is 37-50 ATS (42.5%) as a favorite since 2014
Trends Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-7 vs NYJ)
(467) HOUSTON (0-2) at (468) JACKSONVILLE (1-1)
* HOUSTON is on 17-55 SU and 26-45 ATS slide vs. elite teams with a point differential of >=+4.5 PPG since 2010
Trend Match (FADE): HOUSTON (+1.5 at JAX)
* JACKSONVILLE is 31-42 ATS (42.5%) when coming off a SU loss since 2018
* JACKSONVILLE is 20-28 ATS (41.7%) as a favorite since 2018
Trends Match (FADE): JACKSONVILLE (-1.5 vs HOU)
* JACKSONVILLE is 40-31 Under the total (56.3%) since 2021
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-JAX (o/u at 44.5)
(469) DENVER (1-1) at (470) LA CHARGERS (2-0)
* DENVER’s Sean Payton is 17-9 SU and 20-5 ATS in the last 26 games when coming off an outright road loss
* LA CHARGERS are 36-50-1 ATS (41.9%) at home since 2014
Trends Match (PLAY): DENVER (+2.5 at LAC)
* DENVER is 99-68 Under the total (59.3%) since 2015
* LA CHARGERS are 63-33 Under the total when coming off an outright win since 2013
* LA CHARGERS are on 24-10 Under the total surge in Sunday games
* LA CHARGERS are 12-2 Under the total as a divisional home favorite since 2018
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): DEN-LAC (o/u at 45.5)
(471) NEW ORLEANS (0-2) at (472) SEATTLE (1-1)
* NEW ORLEANS is 36-23 ATS (61%) in road/neutral games since 2018
* SEATTLE is 40-52-1 ATS (43.5%) when coming off a SU win since 2015
* SEATTLE’s Sam Darnold is 7-11 SU and 4-13-1 ATS in the last 18 starts vs. teams with losing records
Trends Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+7.5 at SEA)
* SEATTLE’s Sam Darnold is 27-12 Under the total when his team plays with normal rest (7 days) since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NO-SEA (o/u at 41.5)
(473) DALLAS (1-1) at (474) CHICAGO (0-2)
* DALLAS is 26-8 SU and 23-11 ATS vs. teams with a losing record since 2020
* DALLAS is 29-22 ATS (56.9%) in non-divisional conference games since 2019
* DALLAS is 22-14 ATS (61.1%) in road/neutral games since 2021
Trends Match (PLAY): DALLAS (-1.5 at CHI)
* CHICAGO is 21-12 SU and 21-11 ATS vs. poor defenses allowing >=27 PPG since 2015
* CHICAGO is 23-36-1 ATS (39%) when coming off a SU loss since 2019
* CHICAGO is 31-43 ATS (41.9%) in non-divisional conference games since 2015
* CHICAGO is 28-44-1 ATS (38.9%) as an underdog since 2019
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 3 FADES of CHICAGO (+1.5 vs DAL)
* DALLAS’ Dak Prescott is 11-1 Over the total with his team coming off a home win since 2022
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DAL-CHI (o/u at 50.5)
(475) ARIZONA (2-0) at (476) SAN FRANCISCO (2-0)
* ARIZONA’s Jonathan Gannon is on a 6-1 Over the total streak vs. elite teams with winning percentages >=66.7%
* SAN FRANCISCO’s Kyle Shanahan is 44-28 Over the total when his team is on normal rest (7 days) since 2017
Trends Match (PLAY OVER): ARI-SF (o/u at 45.5)
* ARIZONA is 12-19 ATS (38.7%) vs. divisional opponents since 2020
* ARIZONA is 31-22 ATS (58.5%) in road/neutral games since 2019
* ARIZONA is 30-18 ATS (62.5%) as an underdog since 2021
Trends Match: 2 PLAYS, 1 FADE of ARIZONA (+2.5 at SF)
* SAN FRANCISCO is 37-30 ATS (55.2%) when coming off a SU win since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-2.5 vs ARI)
(477) KANSAS CITY (0-2) at (478) NY GIANTS (0-2)
* NY GIANTS are 24-6 Under the total as home underdogs since 2020
* NY GIANTS are 56-29 Under the total (65.9%) since 2020
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): KC-NYG (o/u at 45.5)
* KANSAS CITY is 56-39-1 ATS (58.9%) in road/neutral games since 2014
* KANSAS CITY’s Andy Reid is on a 15-4 SU and 12-6 ATS surge in non-conference games
Trends Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-6 at NYG)
* NY GIANTS’ Russell Wilson boasts a 10-7 SU and 13-4 ATS record as a home underdog since 2012
Trend Match (PLAY): NY GIANTS (+6 vs KC)
(479) DETROIT (1-1) at (480) BALTIMORE (1-1)
* DETROIT is 17-5 SU and ATS when coming off a double-digit win since 2018
* DETROIT is 14-8 SU and 18-5 ATS when playing with extra rest (>7 days) since 2019
* DETROIT’s Jared Goff is 10-11 SU but 17-4 ATS as a single-digit underdog since 2021
Trends Match (PLAY): DETROIT (+4.5 at BAL)
* BALTIMORE’s John Harbaugh is on an 8-3 SU and 9-1 ATS run vs. elite offenses scoring >=27 PPG
* BALTIMORE’s Lamar Jackson is 32-9 SU and 27-13 ATS in a game following up scoring 30+ points since 2018
* BALTIMORE’s Lamar Jackson is 26-11 SU but 13-23 ATS as a single-digit home favorite since 2018
Trends Match: 2 PLAYS, 1 FADE of BALTIMORE (-4.5 vs DET)
NFL Rookie/Retread Coaching Systems
This material is from the VSiN piece entitled Analyzing the New NFL Head Coaches for 2025 detailing systems that apply to rookie coaches Ben Johnson (Chicago), Brian Schottenheimer (Dallas), Liam Coen (Jacksonville), Kellen Moore (New Orleans), and Aaron Glenn (NY Jets) as well as re-tread coaches Pete Carroll (Las Vegas) and Mike Vrabel (New England).
Rookie Coach Systems
(Games this week: HOU-JAX(-1.5), NYJ(+7)-TB, NO(+7.5)-SEA, DAL(-1.5)-CHI(+1.5))
– Rookie head coaches haven’t been good at covering point spreads at home over the last decade – 148-177-10 ATS (45.5%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): JACKSONVILLE, CHICAGO
– Rookie head coaches have also struggled in the large underdog role, going 27-114 SU (19.3%) & 67-74 ATS (47.5%) when catching 7 points or more since 2017.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY JETS, NEW ORLEANS
– In a trend that seems to make sense as far as familiarity is concerned, the more familiar the opponent, the less successful rookie head coaches have been. Since 2015: Divisional games 112-129-4 ATS (46.5%).
System Match (FADE): JACKSONVILLE
– Among the key challenges new head coaches face is stringing wins together. After wins, they’ve gone just 43-68-6 ATS (38.7%) since December 2020.
System Match (FADE): DALLAS
Retread Coach Systems
(Games this week: PIT-NE(+1.5), LVR(+3.5)-WAS)
– In non-conference games, they have really struggled, going 42-58 ATS (42%) over the last decade, including 15-28 ATS (34.9%) over the last three seasons.
System Match (FADE): LAS VEGAS
– Retread head coaches have shown a tendency to start very slow at their new franchises and finish their first seasons more successfully when it comes to covering point spreads. Since 2015, in Weeks #1-#10 of their first seasons, they’ve combined to go 100-133 ATS (42.9%), while in Weeks #11 & later, they’ve gone 81-74 ATS (52.3%). It seems that it takes some time for these coaches to find their footing in their new homes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW ENGLAND, LAS VEGAS
– There seems to be a noteworthy trend of momentum that comes with these re-tread head coaches. When coming off a loss, the record has been an ugly 136-173 ATS (44%) in that same time span.
System Match (FADE): LAS VEGAS
NFL Rookie Quarterback Systems
These systems take into account rookie quarterback records in their first seasons. They include game logs of any rookie who started seven or more games in that first season. The lone starter this week is Cam Ward (Tennessee), although others could join them down the road.
(Game this week: IND-TEN(+4.5))
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #3 – Rookie quarterbacks have gotten off to slow starts of late
As part of their overall recent struggles, rookie quarterbacks have struggled for bettors as early-season starters, going 7-26-1 SU and 13-20-1 ATS (39.4%) in their last 34 Week 1-3 games. They are also on a 30-12 Under the total (71.4%) run in their last 42 such contests.
System Match (FADE): TENNESSEE
System Match (PLAY UNDER): IND-TEN (o/u at 43.5)
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #10 – By type of opponent, divisional matchups have been toughest for rookie starting quarterbacks
Since 2015, rookie QBs are just 49-105 SU and 65-84-4 ATS (43.6%) versus divisional opponents.
System Match (FADE): TENNESSEE
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #11 – Losses have tended to snowball for rookie QBs
In their last 166 starts with their teams coming off outright losses, rookie QBs have gone just 53-114 SU and 75-89-2 ATS (45.7%). This trend dates back to 2018.
System Match (FADE): TENNESSEE
NFL Veteran Quarterback Leading New Team Systems
These systems take into account veteran quarterback records in their first season with a new team. They include game logs of 32 different veteran QBs since 2004 who have played at least eight years in the NFL and started extensively on a previous team. This week, there are four different QBs finding themselves in a new place: Aaron Rodgers (Pittsburgh), Russell Wilson (NY Giants), Carson Wentz (Minnesota), and Geno Smith (Las Vegas).
(Games this week: PIT(-1.5)-NE, CIN-MIN(-3), LVR(+3.5)-WAS, KC-NYG(+6))
NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #1 – Veteran quarterbacks start slow for their new teams
It takes a little time for these veteran quarterbacks to find their footing with their new franchises. In fact, dating back to 2006, in the month of September, these guys have gone 45-30-1 Under the total (60%), averaging about 1.5 PPG less than usual offensively.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): PIT-NE (o/u at 44.5), CIN-MIN (o/u at 41.5), LVR-WAS (o/u at 44.5), KC-NYG (o/u at 45.5)
NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Veteran quarterbacks thrive with their new teams at home
The results since 2005 of veteran quarterbacks playing with their new teams at home are quite impressive, as they have gone 125-80 SU and 107-87-11 ATS (55.2%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA, NY GIANTS
NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #6 – By type of opponent, non-divisional conference matchups have been best for veteran starting quarterbacks in their first season with new teams
Since 2005, veteran QBs in their first season with new teams have fared well against non-divisional conference opponents, going 85-71 SU and 84-70-2 ATS (54.5%).
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH
NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #7 – Non-conference matchups have been an absolute struggle for veteran starting quarterbacks in their first season with new teams over the last four years
Since 2021, veteran QBs in their first season with new teams have struggled horribly against non-conference opponents, going 15-24 SU and 11-28 ATS (28.2%).
System Match (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA, LAS VEGAS, NY GIANTS
NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #10 – Veteran quarterbacks have been atrocious in the road favorite role with new teams
Since the start of the 2004 season, veteran starting quarterbacks playing their first seasons with new teams have performed terribly in the road favorite role, 46-35 SU but 29-51-1 ATS (36.3%).
System Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH
NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #11 – Veteran quarterbacks are consistent bets as smaller road underdogs with new teams
Dating back to 2006, veteran starting quarterbacks in their first seasons with new teams have gone 36-32 SU and 46-22 ATS (67.6%) when playing as road underdogs of +5.5 points or fewer.
System Match (PLAY): LAS VEGAS
NFL Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NFL games and detail the results of the follow-up game for these teams.
BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
* NFL teams that have gained an explosive 8.75 yards per play or more in any given game have responded the next week by going just 25-22-1 SU and 17-29-2 ATS (37%) in their last 48 tries.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (+4.5 at BAL)
TNF, SNF, & MNF Team Trends and Systems for the NFL
The following trends and systems come from a log of all the Thursday night (TNF), Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night (MNF) games since the start of the 2019 season. Only Thursday night games were included in the TNF study, not the day games played on Thanksgiving. The Sunday night games only included those games played on Sunday night, not all of the games covered by the NBC SNF crew, which also included some Wednesday and Saturday contests. The games analyzed were only regular-season games.
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
· There has been some interesting data regarding the first and second half of the season in terms of Thursday night games. In the first half of the season, or weeks 1-8, home teams have gone 26-22 SU but 16-30-2 ATS (34.8%) in the last 48. Going back even further, since 2016, TNF home teams in weeks 9 & later are 44-27 SU and 42-26-3 ATS (61.8%). There seems to be a fundamental edge to playing at home with less rest late in the season.
System Match (FADE): BUFFALO (-12.5 vs MIA)
· NFL home favorites of 7 points or more are on a 31-2 SU and 21-10-2 ATS (67.7%) run on Thursday games since the start of the 2014 season.
System Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (-12.5 vs MIA)
· There has been a wild trend that has developed over the last 4+ seasons regarding TNF road teams coming off a home loss the prior Sunday, as they have rebounded incredibly with a 20-20 SU and 25-14-1 ATS (64.1%) record.
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+12.5 at BUF)
· More on totals, there have been 32 TNF games since 2012 with a total of 50 or greater, they went Under at a 22-10 rate (68.8%).
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MIA-BUF (*if the total reaches 50 or higher, at 49.5 currently)
Under the total TNF Team Trends
Miami 8-2-1 Under in the last 11
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIA-BUF (o/u at 49.5)
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
· Home underdogs have been competitive on Sunday night football, going 20-23 SU and 25-16-2 ATS (61%) dating back to 2017.
System Match (PLAY): NY GIANTS (+6 vs KC)
· In SNF games pitting non-conference opponents (AFC vs. NFC), home teams are just 27-24 SU & 20-29-2 ATS (40.8%) in the last 51. Under the total is also 30-13 (69.8%) in the last 43.
System Match (FADE): NY GIANTS (+6 vs KC)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): KC-NYG (o/u at 45.5)
· Momentum has been big for hosts overall, as home teams on SNF coming off a loss in their last games are just 14-21 SU and 14-20-1 ATS (41.2%) in their last 35, but those coming off a win are on a current 28-9 SU and 22-15 ATS (59.5%) surge.
System Match (FADE): NY GIANTS (+6 vs KC)
Over the total SNF Team Trends
Kansas City 15-8 Over since 2016, combined avg. 52.4 PPG
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): KC-NYG (o/u at 45.5)
Under the total SNF Team Trends
NY Giants 10 straight Unders, scoring 10.9 PPG
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): KC-NYG (o/u at 45.5)
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
· In MNF games pitting non-conference opponents (AFC vs. NFC), home teams are 27-29 SU but 16-38-2 ATS (29.6%) in the last 56.
System Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (-4.5 vs DET)
· Blowout wins have been great momentum builders for road MNF teams, as those coming off wins by 20 points or more have gone 9-4 SU and ATS (69.2%) in their last 13 tries.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (+4.5 at BAL)
If you’ve picked up from each of the team trends sections that certain teams are consistently doing well or poorly, or are going Over or Under regularly, you’re right. Here are some overall primetime game trends that you’re going to want to consider:
Good PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, & MNF) Team Trends
Baltimore 28-13 SU and 25-15-1 ATS in the last 41
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-4.5 vs DET)
Buffalo 18-7 SU and 15-10 ATS primetime run
Trend Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (-12.5 vs MIA)
Kansas City 16-6 SU and 15-7 ATS in the last 22 road primetime games
Trend Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-6 at NYG)
Bad PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, & MNF) Team Trends
NY Giants 4-24 SU since last back-to-back wins (12-16 ATS)
Trend Match (FADE): NY GIANTS (+6 vs KC)
Over the total PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, & MNF) Team Trends
Kansas City 18-6 Over surge in road games
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): KC-NYG (o/u at 45.5)
Under the total PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, & MNF) Team Trends
Miami 13-2 to the Under
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIA-BUF (o/u at 49.5)
This Week’s NFL Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHICAGO +1.5 (+2.9)
2. NEW ENGLAND +1.5 (+2.8)
3. CAROLINA +5.5 (+2.7)
4. ARIZONA +2.5 (+2.6)
5. TENNESSEE +4.5 (+1.7)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TAMPA BAY -7 (+2.7)
2. PHILADELPHIA -3.5 (+2.3)
3. LA CHARGERS -2.5 (+1.4)
4. BALTIMORE -4.5 (+0.6)
5. GREEN BAY -8.5 (+0.4)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). NY GIANTS +6 (+2.2)
DETROIT +4.5 (+2.2)
3. NEW ORLEANS +7.5 (+1.2)
4. CHICAGO +1.5 (+0.7)
5. DENVER +2.5 (+0.5)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. WASHINGTON -3.5 (+2.7)
2. SAN FRANCISCO -2.5 (+2.0)
3. GREEN BAY -8.5 (+1.9)
4(tie). BUFFALO -12.5 (+1.8)
ATLANTA -5.5 (+1.8)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GB-CLE OVER 41.5 (+2.7)
2. NYJ-TB OVER 43.5 (+1.6)
3. CIN-MIN OVER 41.5 (+1.3)
4. DAL-CHI OVER 50.5 (+0.9)
5. MIA-BUF OVER 49.5 (+0.7)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ARI-SF UNDER 45.5 (-4.8)
2. LVR-WAS UNDER 44.5 (-3.2)
3. NO-SEA UNDER 41.5 (-1.5)
4. DET-BAL UNDER 52.5 (-1.3)
5. PIT-NE UNDER 44.5 (-1.0)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW ENGLAND +1.5 (+2.7)
2. CHICAGO +1.5 (+1.9)
3(tie). TENNESSEE +4.5 (+1.7)
CAROLINA +5.5 (+1.7)
5. HOUSTON +1.5 (+1.6)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHILADELPHIA -3.5 (+2.4)
2. TAMPA BAY -7 (+2.0)
3. LA CHARGERS -2.5 (+1.9)
4(tie). SEATTLE -7.5 (+0.6)
KANSAS CITY -6 (+0.6)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GB-CLE OVER 41.5 (+2.3)
2. DET-BAL OVER 52.5 (+2.1)
3. NYJ-TB OVER 43.5 (+1.9)
4. CIN-MIN OVER 41.5 (+1.8)
5. NO-SEA OVER 41.5 (+1.0)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOU-JAX UNDER 44.5 (-3.9)
2. ARI-SF UNDER 45.5 (-3.4)
3. LVR-WAS UNDER 44.5 (-1.8)
4. DAL-CHI UNDER 50.5 (-1.2)
5. PIT-NE UNDER 44.5 (-1.1)
Top Head-to-Head Series NFL Betting Trends
These are the top head-to-head series NFL betting trends between teams from recent years’ action:
(301) MIAMI (0-2) at (302) BUFFALO (2-0)
* Over the total is 9-1-1 in the last 11 of the MIA-BUF divisional series in Orchard Park
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIA-BUF (o/u at 49.5)
(451) INDIANAPOLIS (2-0) at (452) TENNESSEE (0-2)
* Indianapolis has won all four meetings SU and ATS with Tennessee in the last two seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): INDIANAPOLIS (-4.5 at TEN)
(453) ATLANTA (1-1) at (454) CAROLINA (0-2)
* Underdogs are 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS in the last 10 of the ATL-CAR divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): CAROLINA (+5.5 vs ATL)
(455) LAS VEGAS (1-1) at (456) WASHINGTON (1-1)
* Washington is 4-0 SU and ATS in meetings with the Raiders since 2009
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (-3.5 vs LVR)
(457) GREEN BAY (2-0) at (458) CLEVELAND (0-2)
* Favorites are 4-0 ATS in the Packers-Browns series at Cleveland since 1992
Trend Match (PLAY): GREEN BAY (-8.5 at CLE)
(459) CINCINNATI (2-0) at (460) MINNESOTA (1-1)
* Home teams are 8-0 SU and 7-0-1 ATS in the CIN-MIN series since 1995
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-3 vs CIN)
(461) LA RAMS (2-0) at (462) PHILADELPHIA (2-0)
* Road teams are 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings between LAR and PHI
Trend Match (PLAY): LA RAMS (+3.5 at PHI)
* Over the total is 6-1 in the last seven of the LAR-PHI series
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LAR-PHI (o/u at 44.5)
(463) PITTSBURGH (1-1) at (464) NEW ENGLAND (1-1)
* New England is 8-1 SU and 6-1-2 ATS in matchups with Pittsburgh since 2013
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ENGLAND (+1.5 vs PIT)
(465) NY JETS (0-2) at (466) TAMPA BAY (2-0)
* NY Jets are 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS in the series with Tampa Bay since 1997
Trend Match (PLAY): NY JETS (+7 at TB)
(467) HOUSTON (0-2) at (468) JACKSONVILLE (1-1)
* Underdogs are 6-0 ATS in the HOU-JAX AFC South series at Jacksonville since 2018
Trend Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (+1.5 at JAX)
(469) DENVER (1-1) at (470) LA CHARGERS (2-0)
* Favorites are 3-0 ATS in the last three of the DEN-LAC divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): LA CHARGERS (-2.5 vs DEN)
(471) NEW ORLEANS (0-2) at (472) SEATTLE (1-1)
* Home teams are 6-2 SU and ATS in the last eight of the NO-SEA series
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-7 vs NO)
(473) DALLAS (1-1) at (474) CHICAGO (0-2)
* Over the total is 8-0 in the Cowboys-Bears series since 2007
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DAL-CHI (o/u at 50.5)
(475) ARIZONA (2-0) at (476) SAN FRANCISCO (2-0)
* Over the total is 6-1 in the last seven of the ARI-SF NFC West rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ARI-SF (o/u at 44.5)
(477) KANSAS CITY (0-2) at (478) NY GIANTS (0-2)
* NY GIANTS are 8-1 ATS in meetings with Kansas City since 1992
Trend Match (PLAY): NY GIANTS (+6 vs KC)
* Under the total is 6-0-1 in the last seven of the KC-NYG series
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): KC-NYG (o/u at 45.5)
(479) DETROIT (1-1) at (480) BALTIMORE (1-1)
* Home teams are 6-1 ATS in the Lions-Ravens series since 1998 (including a 4-0 ATS record for Baltimore at home)
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-4.5 vs DET)
