The following NFL betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NFL games of Week 7. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFL board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NFL betting trends and systems for this week’s NFL games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Atlanta is 16-2 to the Under in their last 18 prime time games
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ATL-SF (o/u at 47.5) 

* Since the start of the 2020 season, rookie starting quarterbacks have taken care of business in the home favorite role, going 41-12 SU and 38-14-1 ATS (73.1%).
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-2.5 vs MIA) 

* New England is 28-6 SU and 26-8 ATS (76.5%) when riding a three-game or more outright winning streak since 2016
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ENGLAND (-7 at TEN) 

* Jacksonville is 10-50 SU and 16-43 ATS (27.1%) versus NFC foes since 2011
Trends Match (FADE): JACKSONVILLE (+3 vs LAR) 

Pre-bye week system #2: Play Under the total on any team heading into their bye week when facing a divisional opponent, assuming the opponent is not in the same situation. (Record: 36-15-2 since 2013, 70.6%, +19.5 Units, 38.2% ROI, Grade 70)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): LVR-KC (o/u at 45.5) 

Post-bye week system #7: Play Under the total with road teams coming off their bye week (Record: 40-19-1 since ‘21, 67.8%, +19.1 Units, 32.4% ROI, Grade 65)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-SEA (o/u at 41.5)

* Detroit is on an 11-0 SU and ATS streak coming off an outright loss
Trends Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-5.5 vs TB) 

* Won/lost records have mattered on Monday Night Football, as teams with the better record are 44-39 SU but just 31-50-2 ATS (38.3%) in the last 83 MNF games not matching teams with identical records.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY (+5.5 at DET), SEATTLE (-3 vs HOU) 

#1 Underpriced underdog according to the Makinen Bettors Ratings: NY JETS +1.5 vs Carolina (projections have line at NYJ -4.1) 

These are some of the top situational NFL betting trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action: 

(311) PITTSBURGH (4-1) at (312) CINCINNATI (2-4)

* PITTSBURGH is 32-18 SU but 15-33 ATS vs. poor offenses scoring <19 PPG since 2011
* PITTSBURGH is 25-32 ATS (43.9%) as a favorite since 2018
* PITTSBURGH’s Aaron Rodgers is 11-13 SU and 7-17 ATS as a single-digit road favorite since 2021
* CINCINNATI is 26-18 ATS (59.1%) as an underdog since 2020
* CINCINNATI is 13-25 SU but 26-13 ATS surge when coming off an outright road loss since 2016
* CINCINNATI’s Zac Taylor is on a 13-11 SU and 17-7 ATS run vs. elite teams with winning percentages >=66.7%
Trends Match (PLAY ATS): CINCINNATI (+5.5 vs PIT)

* PITTSBURGH is 104-72 Under the total (59.1%) since 2015
* PITTSBURGH is 36-12 Under the total vs. poor teams with point differentials <=-4.5 PPG since 2013
* PITTSBURGH is 31-9 Under the total as a road favorite since 2014
* CINCINNATI’s Joe Flacco is 18-8 Under the total in starts versus divisional foes since 2016
* PITTSBURGH’s Aaron Rodgers is 22-9 Over the total as a single-digit road favorite since 2015
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 4 PLAYS UNDER in PIT-CIN (o/u at 44.5) 

(451) LA RAMS (4-2) vs. (452) JACKSONVILLE (4-2)
* LA RAMS’ Matthew Stafford is 35-65 SU and 37-61 ATS vs. teams with winning records since 2011
Trend Match (FADE): LA RAMS (-3 vs JAX)

* JACKSONVILLE is 10-50 SU and 16-43 ATS versus NFC foes since 2011
* JACKSONVILLE is 32-42 ATS (43.2%) when coming off a SU loss since 2018
Trends Match (FADE): JACKSONVILLE (+3 vs LAR)

* JACKSONVILLE is on 16-3 Under the total surge when coming off a loss to an NFC foe
* JACKSONVILLE is 42-33 Under the total (56%) since 2021
* LA RAMS are 54-43 Under the total (55.7%) since 2020
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): LAR-JAX (o/u at 44.5) 

(453) LAS VEGAS (2-4) at (454) KANSAS CITY (3-3)
* LAS VEGAS is 7-6 SU and 11-2 ATS when coming off a game allowing <=14 points since 2020
* LAS VEGAS is 25-17 ATS (59.5%) vs. divisional opponents since 2018
* LAS VEGAS is 37-52 ATS (41.6%) in road/neutral games since 2015
Trends Match: 2 PLAYS, 1 FADE of LAS VEGAS (+11.5 at KC)

* KANSAS CITY is 20-11 SU but 6-23 ATS when coming off a game of scoring 30+ points since 2020
* KANSAS CITY’s Patrick Mahomes is 34-2 SU but 12-23-1 ATS (34.3%) in his L36 games as a favorite of more than 7 points. The average line was -10.7, Team average PF: 27.7
* KANSAS CITY is 10-19-1 ATS (34.5%) vs. divisional opponents since 2020
Trends Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (-11.5 vs LVR)

* KANSAS CITY is 75-40 Under the total as a home favorite since 2010
* KANSAS CITY’s Andy Reid is 34-11 Under the total as a home favorite of 7 points or more since 2011
* LAS VEGAS is 21-5 Under the total as a divisional road underdog since 2015
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): LVR-KC (o/u at 45.5) 

(455) MIAMI (1-5) at (456) CLEVELAND (1-5)
* MIAMI is on a 34-19 SU and 33-19 ATS surge vs. teams with a losing record since 2019
* MIAMI’s Mike McDaniel is on a 2-14 SU and 4-12 ATS skid as a single-digit underdog
* MIAMI’s Tua Tagovailoa is 11-2 SU and 10-2-1 ATS vs. teams with poor point differentials of <=-4.5 PPG since 2022
Trends Match: 2 PLAYS, 1 FADE of MIAMI (+2.5 at CLE)

* CLEVELAND is 34-45 ATS (43%) at home since 2015
* CLEVELAND is 19-32 ATS (37.3%) as a favorite since 2017
Trends Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-2.5 vs MIA)

* CLEVELAND’s Kevin Stefanski is 17-8 Under the total vs. teams with a losing record since 2020
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIA-CLE (o/u at 40.5) 

(457) NEW ENGLAND (4-2) at (458) TENNESSEE (1-5)
* NEW ENGLAND is 28-6 SU and 26-8 ATS when riding a three-game or more outright winning streak since 2016
* TENNESSEE is on an 8-33 SU and 9-31-1 ATS skid in Sunday games
* TENNESSEE is 34-50-1 ATS (40.5%) in non-divisional conference games since 2014
Trends Match (PLAY): NEW ENGLAND (-7 at TEN) 

(459) NEW ORLEANS (1-5) at (460) CHICAGO (3-2)
* NEW ORLEANS is 37-24 ATS (60.7%) in road/neutral games since 2018
* CHICAGO is 33-43 ATS (43.4%) in non-divisional conference games since 2015
Trends Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+4.5 at CHI) 

(461) PHILADELPHIA (4-2) at (462) MINNESOTA (3-2)
* PHILADELPHIA is 14-19 SU and 8-23 ATS when coming off a divisional loss since 2012
* PHILADELPHIA is 14-28 ATS (33.3%) when coming off a SU loss since 2018
Trends Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-1.5 at MIN)

* MINNESOTA is 19-25 ATS (43.2%) at home since 2020
Trend Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (+1.5 vs PHI)

* MINNESOTA is 61-47 Over the total (56.5%) since 2019
* MINNESOTA’s Kevin O’Connell is 15-7 Over the total vs. teams with a winning record since 2022
* PHILADELPHIA’s Nick Sirianni is 11-3 Under the total in the last 14 games when coming off an outright loss
* PHILADELPHIA’s Jalen Hurts is 20-11 Under the total in his last 30 road games
Trends Match: 2 PLAYS OVER, 2 PLAYS UNDER in PHI-MIN (o/u at 43.5) 

(463) CAROLINA (3-3) at (464) NY JETS (0-6)
* CAROLINA is 8-18 SU and 7-19 ATS vs. poor teams with winning percentages <=33% since 2017
* CAROLINA is 16-33 ATS (32.7%) as a favorite since 2016
Trends Match (FADE): CAROLINA (-1.5 at NYJ)

* NY JETS are 13-31 ATS (29.5%) vs. non-conference foes since 2015
* NY JETS’ Justin Fields is 11-30 SU and 16-23-2 ATS (41%) in Sunday games. The average line was +3.2, Team average PF: 19.5
Trends Match (FADE): NY JETS (+1.5 vs CAR) 

(465) INDIANAPOLIS (5-1) at (466) LA CHARGERS (4-2)
* INDIANAPOLIS’s Daniel Jones is 33-14 Under the total as an underdog since 2020
* LA CHARGERS are 65-33 Under the total when coming off an outright win since 2013
* LA CHARGERS are on 27-11 Under the total surge in Sunday games
* LA CHARGERS are on 16-4 Under the total streak when playing on normal rest (7 days)
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): IND-LAC (o/u at 48.5)

* LA CHARGERS are 37-51-1 ATS (42%) at home since 2014
Trend Match (FADE): LA CHARGERS (-1.5 vs IND) 

(467) NY GIANTS (2-4) at (468) DENVER (4-2)
* DENVER is 103-68 Under the total (60.2%) since 2015
* NY GIANTS are 59-30 Under the total (66.3%) since 2020
* NY GIANTS’ Brian Daboll is on 23-10 Under the total surge as a single-digit underdog
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): NYG-DEN (o/u at 39.5)

* DENVER is 25-36 ATS (41%) as a favorite since 2017
* DENVER is 13-14 SU but 22-5 ATS bouncing back after a game having scored 14 points or less since 2019
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of DENVER (-7 vs NYG)

(469) WASHINGTON (3-3) at (470) DALLAS (2-3)
* WASHINGTON is 27-11 Over the total when playing on short rest (<7 days) since 2011
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): WAS-DAL (o/u at 54.5)

* WASHINGTON’s Dan Quinn is 12-3 SU and 11-4 ATS vs. teams with a losing record since 2019
* WASHINGTON’s Dan Quinn is on a 1-11 SU and 2-10 ATS skid when coming off an upset loss
* WASHINGTON is 21-34 ATS (38.2%) when coming off a SU loss since 2019
* WASHINGTON is 17-32 ATS (34.7%) vs. divisional opponents since 2017
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 3 FADES of WASHINGTON (-2.5 at DAL)

* DALLAS is 36-19 ATS (65.5%) vs. divisional opponents since 2016
* DALLAS’s Dak Prescott owns a poor 22-29-1 SU and 17-35 ATS record vs. teams with winning records since 2016
* DALLAS’ Dak Prescott is on a 3-12-1 SU and 5-11 ATS skid as a single-digit underdog
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 2 FADES of DALLAS (+2.5 vs WAS) 

(471) GREEN BAY (3-1) at (472) ARIZONA (2-4)
* GREEN BAY is 25-12 Over the total as a road favorite since 2015
* GREEN BAY’s Jordan Love is on 13-7 Over the total surge when his team is coming off a win
* ARIZONA’s Jonathan Gannon is on 7-3 Over the total streak vs. elite teams with winning percentages >=66.7%
Trends Match (PLAY OVER): GB-ARI (o/u at 44.5)

* GREEN BAY’s Matt Lafleur is 20-14-1 SU but 13-22 ATS as a single-digit favorite since 2021
Trend Match (FADE ATS): GREEN BAY (-6.5 at ARI)

* ARIZONA is 27-33 ATS (45%) at home since 2018
* ARIZONA is 32-19 ATS (62.7%) as an underdog since 2021
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of ARIZONA (+6.5 vs GB) 

(473) ATLANTA (3-2) at (474) SAN FRANCISCO (4-2)
* ATLANTA is 20-5 Under the total on short rest (<7 days) since 2012
* SAN FRANCISCO’s Kyle Shanahan is 45-29 Over the total when his team is on normal rest (7 days) since 2017
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in ATL-SF (o/u at 47.5)

(475) TAMPA BAY (5-1) at (476) DETROIT (4-2)
* TAMPA BAY is on 27-9 Over the total surge as a single-digit road underdog
* DETROIT’s Dan Campbell is 15-7 Under the total in games after allowing 30+ points since 2015
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in TB-DET (o/u at 52.5)

* TAMPA BAY’s Todd Bowles is just 6-12 SU and 5-12 ATS when his team plays with extra rest (>7 days) since 2017
* TAMPA BAY’s Baker Mayfield is 11-17 SU but 19-9 ATS as a road underdog since 2020
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of TAMPA BAY (+5.5 at DET)

* DETROIT is 25-10-1 ATS (71.4%) at home since 2021
* DETROIT is 15-8 SU and 19-5 ATS when playing with extra rest (>7 days) since 2019
* DETROIT is on a 19-11 SU and 21-8-1 ATS run vs. teams with a winning record
* DETROIT is on an 11-0 SU and ATS streak coming off an outright loss
Trends Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-5.5 vs TB) 

(477) HOUSTON (2-3) at (478) SEATTLE (4-2)
* HOUSTON’s DeMeco Ryans is on 14-5 Under the total surge vs. teams with a winning record
* HOUSTON’s CJ Stroud is 14-8 Under the total in the last 22 games with his team coming off a win
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-SEA (o/u at 41.5)

* HOUSTON is on a 17-56 SU and 26-46 ATS slide vs. elite teams with a point differential of >=+4.5 PPG since 2010
Trend Match (FADE): HOUSTON (+3 at SEA)

* SEATTLE is 42-53-1 ATS (44.2%) when coming off a SU win since 2015
* SEATTLE is 24-16-1 ATS (60%) vs. non-conference foes since 2015
* SEATTLE’s Sam Darnold is 8-11 SU and 5-13-1 ATS in the last 19 starts vs. teams with losing records
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 2 FADES of SEATTLE (-3 vs HOU)

The following trends and systems come from a log of all the Thursday night (TNF), Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night (MNF) games since the start of the 2019 season. Only Thursday night games were included in the TNF study, not the day games played on Thanksgiving. The Sunday night games only included those games played on Sunday night, not all of the games covered by the NBC SNF crew, which also included some Wednesday and Saturday contests. The games analyzed were only regular-season games.

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

·  There has been some interesting data regarding the first and second half of the season in terms of Thursday night games. In the first half of the season, or Weeks 1-8, home teams have gone 28-24 SU but 17-33-2 ATS (34%) in the last 52. Going back even further, since 2016, TNF home teams in Weeks 9 and later are 44-27 SU and 42-26-3 ATS (61.8%). There seems to be a fundamental edge to playing at home with less rest late in the season.
System Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (+5.5 vs PIT)

·   Home underdogs on TNF have really struggled of late, going 7-22 SU and 11-18 ATS (37.9%) in their last 29, scoring just 15.9 PPG. In terms of totals, 18 of the L27 (66.7%) TNF games featuring a home dog went Under.
System Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (+5.5 vs PIT)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): PIT-CIN (o/u at 44.5)

·  Unfortunately, home cooking has not solved the ills for Thursday home teams coming off a loss in their most recent game, as they have been a brutal bet over the last five seasons, going 28-34 SU and 24-37-1 ATS (39.3%).
System Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (+5.5 vs PIT) 

Bad TNF Team Trends
Pittsburgh is 1-5 SU and ATS in the last six
Trend Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (-5.5 at CIN) 

Under the total TNF Team Trends
Cincinnati 6-4-1 Under the total since 2014
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PIT-CIN (o/u at 44.5) 

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

· Home favorites of less than a TD on SNF have historically been solid, going 58-40-2 ATS (59.2%) in their last 100.
System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-2.5 vs ATL)

· SNF teams coming off of losses have proven not ready for the big time, as they have gone just 13-26 SU and 14-25 ATS (35.9%) in their last 39 tries against teams off a win.
System Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (-2.5 vs ATL)

· Momentum has been big for hosts overall, as home teams on SNF coming off a loss in their last games are just 15-22-1 SU and 16-21-1 ATS (43.2%) in their last 38, but those coming off a win are on a current 28-10 SU and 22-16 ATS (57.9%) surge.
System Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (-2.5 vs ATL) 

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

·  In MNF games pitting non-conference opponents (AFC vs. NFC), home teams are 28-30 SU but 17-39-2 ATS (30.4%) in the last 58.
System Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-3 vs HOU)

·  In non-divisional conference matchups on MNF, hosts are on a 22-21 SU and 26-17 ATS (60.5%) surge since ’19.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-5.5 vs TB)

·  Blowout wins have been great momentum builders for road MNF teams, as those coming off wins by 20 points or more have gone 10-4 SU and ATS (71.4%) in their last 14 tries.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (+3 at SEA)

·  Won/lost records have mattered on MNF, as teams with the better record are 44-39 SU but just 31-50-2 ATS (38.3%) in the last 83 MNF games not matching teams with identical records.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY (+5.5 at DET), SEATTLE (-3 vs HOU) 

If you’ve picked up from each of the team trends sections that certain teams are consistently doing well or poorly, or are going Over or Under regularly, you’re right. Here are some overall primetime game trends that you’re going to want to consider: 

Bad PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trends
Tampa Bay 11-20 SU and 9-22 ATS in the last 31
Trend Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (+5.5 at DET) 

Under the total PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trends
Atlanta 16-2 to the Under in the last 18
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ATL-SF (o/u at 47.5)

Seattle 12-5 Under in the last 17
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-SEA (o/u at 41.5) 

NFL Streaks Provide Some Advantages for Bettors

The following betting systems focus on winning and losing streaks. Below are the ones that have qualifying plays for this week’s action.

NFL Streaks Betting System #1: NFL teams that have lost their last three games ATS, all when favored, are on a 43-16 SU and 34-23-2 ATS (59.6%) run when favored in the next game as well.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA CHARGERS (-1.5 vs IND), GREEN BAY (-6.5 at ARI) 

NFL Streaks Betting System #12: NFL teams that have lost at least their last three games outright have gone 64-38 SU but 42-56-4 ATS (42.9%) when favored by 3 points or more since 2013.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (*if they fall into this line range vs MIA, -2.5 currently*)

The following systems and trends are from the long-running article series detailing pre-bye week performance in the NFL. These records are from only in-season bye weeks and do not include playoffs or preseason. 

Pre-bye week system #1:
Play on any team heading into their bye week when facing a divisional opponent, assuming the opponent is not in the same situation. (Record: 54-24-1 ATS since 2013, 69.2%, +27.6 Units, 35.4% ROI, Grade 70)
System Match (PLAY): LAS VEGAS (+11.5 at KC) 

Pre-bye week system #2:
Play Under the total on any team heading into their bye week when facing a divisional opponent, assuming the opponent is not in the same situation. (Record: 36-15-2 since ‘13, 70.6%, +19.5 Units, 38.2% ROI, Grade 70)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): LVR-KC (o/u at 45.5)

Pre-bye week system #5
Play on home underdogs heading into their bye week. (Record: 35-23-3 ATS since 2015, 60.3%, +9.7 Units, 16.7% ROI, Grade 62)
System Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (+6.5 vs GB) 

Pre-bye week system #7
Play against any home team in the +4.5 to -4.5 line range heading into their BYE week on Monday Night. (Record: 12-6 SU and 15-3 ATS since 1996, 83.3%, +11.7 Units, 65% ROI, Grade 65)
System Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-3 vs HOU) 

Pre-bye week system #8
Play on any team heading into their bye week when favored on the road/neutral vs. a non-conference foe (Record: 29-8-1 SU and 25-12-1 ATS since 2009, 67.6%, +11.8 Units, 31.9% ROI, Grade 67)
System Match (PLAY): LA RAMS (-3 vs JAX) 

Pre-bye week system #9
Play against any teams heading into their bye week and playing as underdogs of more than 7 points (Record: 42-7 SU and 34-14-1 ATS since ’08, 70.8%, +18.6 Units, 38.8% ROI, Grade 70)
System Match (FADE): LAS VEGAS (+11.5 at KC) 

Pre-bye week system #10
Play on any teams heading into their bye week and playing as favorites in an overseas neutral field contest (Record: 16-2-1 SU and 14-5 ATS since 2008, 73.7%, +8.5 Units, 44.7% ROI, Grade 65)
System Match (PLAY): LA RAMS (-3 vs JAX) 

* Please note that the systems above and all of the following trends only include bye week games from the regular season schedule, not playoffs. 

Arizona Cardinals Pre-Bye Week Game – 10/19 vs. Green Bay Packers
· Arizona is on a 9-3 ATS surge in pre-bye week games
·  The Cardinals are on a 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS streak in pre-bye week games at home
Trends Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (+6.5 vs GB)

Detroit Lions Pre-Bye Week Game – Mon 10/20 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
· Detroit is on 11-3 Over the total surge in pre-bye week home games
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): TB-HOU (o/u at 52.5)

·Including the last two years, the Lions have only played three MNF pre-bye week games since 1995, going 3-0 SU and ATS
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-5.5 vs TB) 

Jacksonville Jaguars Pre-Bye Week Game – 10/19 vs. Los Angeles Rams (London)
· The Jaguars have lost five straight pre-bye week games vs. NFC foes SU and ATS while being outscored 38-10.8 on average!
Trend Match (FADE): JACKSONVILLE (+3 vs LAR)

· Jacksonville is on a 3-0 Under the total surge in pre-bye week games overseas, scoring 14.7 PPG
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LAR-JAX (o/u at 44.5) 

Los Angeles Rams Pre-Bye Week Game – 10/19 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (London)
· The Rams have gone Under the total in nine of their last 10 pre-bye week games, including seven straight road/neutral contests
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LAR-JAX (o/u at 44.5)

· The Rams are 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS in their last seven pre-bye week games vs. AFC foes
Trend Match (FADE): LA RAMS (-3 vs JAX) 

Las Vegas Raiders Pre-Bye Week Game – 10/19 at Kansas City Chiefs
· The Raiders are on a 4-4 SU and 5-2-1 ATS run in pre-bye week road games vs. division rivals
Trend Match (PLAY): LAS VEGAS (+11.5 at KC)

· The Raiders are on an 8-1 Over the total run in pre-bye week games
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LVR-KC (o/u at 45.5)

Seattle Seahawks Pre-Bye Week Game – Mon 10/20 vs. Houston Texans
·  The Seahawks are 12-2 SU and 9-5 ATS in pre-bye week home games since 2001
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-3 vs HOU)

·  The Seahawks are 9-2 Under the total in their last 10 pre-bye week games, allowing just 15.4 PPG
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-SEA (o/u at 41.5)

Post-Bye Week Systems and Trends

The following systems and trends are from the long-running article series detailing pre- and post-bye week performance in the NFL. These records are from only in-season bye weeks and do not include playoffs or preseason 

Post-bye week system #3:
Play against home underdogs coming out of their bye week. (Record: 45-19 SU and 36-26-2 ATS since 1999, 58.1%, +7.4 Units, 11.9% ROI, Grade 59)
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (+1.5 vs PHI) 

Post-bye week system #7:
Play Under the total with road teams coming off their bye week (Record: 40-19-1 since 2021, 67.8%, +19.1 Units, 32.4% ROI, Grade 65)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-SEA (o/u at 41.5) 

** Please note that the systems above and all of the following trends only include bye week games from the regular season schedule, not playoffs. 

Houston Texans Post-Bye Week Game: MON 10/20 at Seattle Seahawks
·  Houston has gone 14-7 Under the total in their last 21 post-bye week games
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-SEA (o/u at 41.5)

· The Texans are just 1-5 ATS in their last six post-bye week road games
Trend Match (FADE): HOUSTON (+3 at SEA) 

Minnesota Vikings Post-Bye Week Game: 10/19 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
·  For as good as the Vikings were in pre-bye week games, they are nearly as bad out of the bye, 5-10 SU and 4-10-1 ATS in the last 15
Trend Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (+1.5 vs PHI)

· The Vikings are on a run of 8-3 Over the total in post-bye week games at home
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PHI-MIN (o/u at 43.5) 

NFL Rookie/Retread Coaching Systems

This material is from the VSiN piece entitled Analyzing the New NFL Head Coaches for 2025 detailing systems that apply to rookie coaches Ben Johnson (Chicago), Brian Schottenheimer (Dallas), Liam Coen (Jacksonville), Kellen Moore (New Orleans), and Aaron Glenn (NY Jets) as well as re-tread coaches Pete Carroll (Las Vegas) and Mike Vrabel (New England).

Rookie Coach Systems

(Games this week: LAR-JAX(+3), CAR-NYJ(+1.5), NO(+4.5)-CHI(-4.5), WAS-DAL(+2.5)) 

– Rookie head coaches have not been as good at covering spreads at home – 153-180-10 ATS (45.9%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY JETS, CHICAGO, DALLAS

– Since 2015, rookie coaches have gone 113-130-4 ATS (46.5%) versus divisional opponents. These are not groundbreaking betting numbers by any means, but it could serve as a foundational concept that the more familiar the opponent, the less successful the rookie coach.
System Match (FADE): DALLAS 

– Among the key challenges new head coaches face is stringing wins together. After wins, they’ve done measurably worse, going 47-72-6 ATS (39.5%) since December 2020.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO

Retread Coach Systems

(Games this week: NE(-7)-TEN, LVR(+11.5)-KC) 

– Retread head coaches have been brutal bets as favorites. As favorites since 2015, they’ve gone 94-68 SU but just 61-90-11 ATS, for 40.4%!
System Match (FADE): NEW ENGLAND 

– Retread head coaches have shown a tendency to start very slow at their new franchises and finish their first seasons more successfully when it comes to covering point spreads. Since 2015, in Weeks #1-#10 of their first seasons, they’ve combined to go 104-137 ATS (43.2%), while in Weeks #11 and later, they’ve gone 81-74 ATS (52.3%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW ENGLAND, LAS VEGAS 

– There seems to be a noteworthy trend of momentum that comes with these re-tread head coaches. Since 2015, when coming off a win or tie, these coaches have posted a modest 81-77 ATS (51%) record in their first seasons, including 31-24 ATS (56.4%) since mid-2022.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): NEW ENGLAND, LAS VEGAS

NFL Rookie Quarterback Systems

These systems take into account rookie quarterback records in their first seasons. They include game logs of any rookie who started seven or more games in that first season. The starters this week include Cam Ward (Tennessee), Dillon Gabriel (Cleveland), and Jaxson Dart (NY Giants). 

(Games this week: NE-TEN(+7), MIA-CLE(-2.5), NYG(+7)-DEN) 

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Rookie quarterbacks have struggled on the road, particularly late in the season
The results of rookie quarterbacks on the road lately are startling. Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie starters have combined for a record of 139-126 ATS (52.5%) in home games but just 122-146 ATS (45.5%) in road/neutral games.
System Match (FADE): NY GIANTS 

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #6 – Don’t fall for the big underdog point spreads with rookie quarterbacks
Since 2015, rookie starting quarterbacks facing underdog lines of 6.5 points or more have won just 23 games, going 23-123 SU and 59-83-4 ATS (41.5%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): TENNESSEE, NY GIANTS 

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #8 – Rookie quarterbacks have been INCREDIBLE bets in the home favorite role over the last five seasons
Since the start of the 2020 season, rookie starting quarterbacks have taken care of business in the home favorite role, going 41-12 SU and 38-14-1 ATS (73.1%).
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #10 – By type of opponent, non-conference matchups have been best for rookie starting quarterbacks
Since 2018, rookie QBs have fared well against non-divisional conference opponents, going 54-67 SU but 68-52 ATS (56.7%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TENNESSEE, CLEVELAND

– Since 2022, rookie QBs are 21-17 SU and 22-13-3 ATS (62.9%) versus non-conference foes.
System Match (PLAY): NY GIANTS 

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #11 – Losses have tended to snowball for rookie QBs
In their last 172 starts with their teams coming off outright losses, rookie QBs have gone just 56-118 SU and 78-93-2 ATS (45.6%). This trend dates back to 2018.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TENNESSEE, CLEVELAND

NFL Veteran Quarterback Leading New Team Systems

These systems take into account veteran quarterback records in their first season with a new team. They include game logs of 32 different veteran QBs since 2004 who have played at least eight years in the NFL and started extensively on a previous team. This week, there are three different QBs finding themselves in a new place: Aaron Rodgers (Pittsburgh), Joe Flacco (Cincinnati), and Geno Smith (Las Vegas). 

(Games this week: PIT(-5.5)-CIN(+5.5), LVR(+11.5)-KC) 

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #2 – Veteran quarterbacks are best for their new teams in the month of October
·  I just showed how these veteran QBs in new places struggle a bit out of the gate. Well, these QBs have rebounded nicely in the month of October, going 47-38 SU and 46-36-3 ATS (56.1%) since ’09.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LAS VEGAS
(Note: PITTSBURGH and CINCINNATI both qualify but play each other)

 NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Veteran quarterbacks thrive with their new teams at home
·  The results since 2005 of veteran quarterbacks playing with their new teams at home are quite impressive, as they have gone 128-82 SU and 110-89-11 ATS (55.3%).
System Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI 

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #8 –Veteran QB’s have shown an inability to strong win streaks together recently
·  In their last 60 starts with their new teams coming off outright victories, new incoming veteran QBs have gone just 30-30 SU and 24-35-1 ATS (40.7%). This trend dates back to 2021.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH, LAS VEGAS 

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #10 – Veteran quarterbacks have been atrocious in the road favorite role with new teams
·  Since the start of the 2004 season, veteran starting quarterbacks playing their first seasons with new teams have performed terribly in the road favorite role, 47-35 SU but 30-51-1 ATS (37%).
System Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH 

NFL Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NFL games and detail the results of the follow-up game for these teams. 

NO QUALIFYING EXTREME STATS SYSTEMS THIS WEEK 

Strategies Using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published in the 2025 NFL Betting Guide, Steve Makinen outlined 12 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of Wednesday at 3:00 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage. 

Here is a quick tabulation on how DK bettors performed in the 2024 season:

– Majority handle on point spreads: 141-131 ATS (51.8%)
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 140-130 ATS (51.9%)
– Majority handle on totals: 143-133 (51.8%)
– Majority number of bets on totals: 147-131 (52.9%) 

These are very good wrap up numbers by the standards that have been established in most of the similar reports I have done for other sports. Considering NFL betting is king, it’s nice to see recreational bettors like those at DraftKings holding their own. With that in mind, here are the systems with updated language and records heading into the 2025 season. 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #1: Over the past two seasons, when more than 68% of the handle has been on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group is just 71-81 ATS (46.7%). The number for this “super-majority” in college football was closer to 75%. In other words, if you see over 2/3 of the handle backing one side in an NFL game this season, it’s consistently profitable to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): JACKSONVILLE, CLEVELAND, NEW ENGLAND, PHILADELPHIA, CAROLINA, NY GIANTS, ATLANTA, DETROIT, SEATTLE 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #2: In NFL divisional games of 2022-24, DK majority handle bettors have been awful, as this majority group is just 117-148 ATS (44.2%). With the obvious generality that public bettors love favorites, it’s clear that they don’t value the stakes of these rivalry games and what they mean for the competitors.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH, LAS VEGAS, DALLAS 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2 above, in that same time span, when the majority number of bets staked its side in an NFL divisional game, this majority group is just 118-150 ATS (44%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH, LAS VEGAS, DALLAS 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #4: In NFL non-conference games of 2023 and 2024, DK majority number of bets groups were actually quite sharp, going 79-64 ATS (55.2%). This is obviously quite the opposite performance level of #3 above, and unfortunately for bettors, there are two fewer non-conference tilts than divisional contests for each team on the schedule every year. Of course, if strategically playing both spots according to these systems, every game in either situation is an opportunity.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): JACKSONVILLE, CAROLINA, NY GIANTS, SEATTLE 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #5: Since the start of the 2023 season, when the majority number of bets have backed road favorites for an ATS wager, these majority groups are actually 100-87 ATS (53.5%). I will tell you that there are only 15 games or fewer each year when this group will actually back the home dog. Watch this one closely as backing road favorites in the NFL has never been a consistent winning strategy.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH, NEW ENGLAND, PHILADELPHIA, CAROLINA, GREEN BAY 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority handle was on road underdogs for an ATS wager over the last two years, these majority groups have surprisingly struggled, 27-36 ATS (42.9%). This goes against the logic I have discovered in other sports, which says that when the public goes “against the grain”, they can do well. Quite the opposite here. As you can see, it is rare, just 63 games in two full seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LAS VEGAS, NEW ORLEANS, INDIANAPOLIS, NY GIANTS, ATLANTA 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle and number of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games over the last two seasons, these majority groups are just 100-114 ATS (46.7%) and 101-111 ATS (47.6%), respectively. This set of games includes all the Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests. These numbers were improved along with the overall majority figures last year, but I wouldn’t expect that to continue.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH, ATLANTA, SEATTLE 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #8: In another rare winning record, when the majority number of bets have backed the team with fewer season wins in a 2023 or 2024 NFL game for an ATS wager, this majority group was 46-38 ATS (54.8%). This has proven to be a situation in which going against the grain pays off.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): LAS VEGAS, NY GIANTS, DALLAS, ATLANTA 

DK Betting Splits system #9: The average NFL total in 2023 was 43.0. Last year, it ballooned back up to 44.6. In games where the totals reached 46.5 or higher and odds makers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, majority number of bettors have gauged these games incredibly well the last two years, going 96-72 ATS (60.8%)! We’ll see how that trend holds in 2025.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – IND-LAC, WAS-DAL, ATL-SF, TB-DET
UNDER – NO-CHI 

DK Betting Splits system #10: When 56% or more of the number of bets have been on the Under in an NFL game total over the last 2-1/2 seasons, this majority group has been quite sharp, 56-45 ATS (55.4%). This number for a “super-majority” in the NFL is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total. Incidentally, the same majority figure for handle has also produced a 74-62 (54.4%) record.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY UNDER ALL): LAR-JAX, MIA-CLE, NE-TEN, CAR-NYJ, HOU-SEA

DK Betting Splits system #11: The magic mark for super majority on handle for betting Overs was 74% or higher, and this group performed miserably in 2023 and 2024 with a record of 46-69 (42.6%). To me, this has been a long-standing belief, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses. On number of bets, this same super majority percentage produced a slightly improved 30-37 (44.8%) record, still poor though.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL INSTEAD): GB-ARI, ATL-SF 

This Week’s NFL Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NY JETS +1.5 (+3.1)
2(tie). MINNESOTA +1.5 (+1.5)
INDIANAPOLIS +1.5 (+1.5)
4. HOUSTON +3 (+0.8)
5. DALLAS +2.5 (+0.5) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHICAGO -4.5 (+3.2)
2. KANSAS CITY -11.5 (+2.3)
3. DENVER -7 (+1.3)
4. DETROIT -5.5 (+1.1)
5. LA RAMS -3 (+0.9) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MINNESOTA +1.5 (+2.7)
2. JACKSONVILLE +3 (+2.5)
3. LAS VEGAS +11.5 (+1.2)
4. CINCINNATI +5.5 (+1.0)
5. ATLANTA +2.5 (+0.5) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW ENGLAND -7 (+4.5)
2. CHICAGO -4.5 (+1.8)
3. LA CHARGERS -1.5 (+1.1)
4. DETROIT -5.5 (+0.9)
5. CLEVELAND -2.5 (+0.8) 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIA-CLE OVER 40.5 (+2.8)
2. CAR-NYJ OVER 42.5 (+2.1)
3. TB-DET OVER 52.5 (+1.7)
4. NO-CHI OVER 47.5 (+1.0)
5. NYG-DEN OVER 39.5 (+0.9) 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GB-ARI UNDER 44.5 (-1.7)
2. PHI-MIN UNDER 43.5 (-1.6)
3. PIT-CIN UNDER 44.5 (-1.3)
4(tie). LVR-KC UNDER 45.5 (-0.8)
ATL-SF UNDER 47.5 (-0.8) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NY JETS +1.5 (+5.6)
2. TENNESSEE +7 (+4.6)
3. LAS VEGAS +11.5 (+3.8)
4. ATLANTA +2.5 (+1.3)
5. NEW ORLEANS +4.5 (+0.6) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHILADELPHIA -1.5 (+3.1)
2. SEATTLE -3 (+2.6)
3. WASHINGTON -2.5 (+2.4)
4. LA CHARGERS -1.5 (+2.1)
5. DENVER -7 (+2.0) 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1(tie). PHI-MIN OVER 43.5 (+1.8)
NYG-DEN OVER 39.5 (+1.8)
HOU-SEA OVER 41.5 (+1.8)
4. MIA-CLE OVER 40.5 (+1.6)
5. LAR-JAX OVER 44.5 (+1.4) 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ATL-SF UNDER 47.5 (-4.7)
2. PIT-CIN UNDER 44.5 (-2.4)
3. LVR-KC UNDER 45.5 (-1.8)
4. NO-CHI UNDER 47.5 (-1.2)
5. GB-ARI UNDER 44.5 (-0.9)

Comparing Effective Yards Per Play Ratings to This Week’s Matchups

Here are the top six for this weekend’s games, as far differential of Effective Play-by-Play ratings versus actual point spreads, with home field advantage built into the differences. Starting in Week 4 of the 2025 season, these plays are 9-9 ATS (50%). 

1. (451) LOS ANGELES RAMS at (452) JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Actual Home Line: JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +3 
Effective Play-by-Play Line: JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +14.9
Difference: 11.9, Favors: LOS ANGELES RAMS 

2. (461) PHILADELPHIA EAGLES at (462) MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Actual Home Line: MINNESOTA VIKINGS +1.5    
Effective Play-by-Play Line: MINNESOTA VIKINGS -8.8
Difference: 10.3, Favors: MINNESOTA VIKINGS 

3. (471) GREEN BAY PACKERS at (472) ARIZONA CARDINALS     
Actual Home Line: ARIZONA CARDINALS +6.5   
Effective Play-by-Play Line: ARIZONA CARDINALS +14.6     
Difference: 8.1, Favors: GREEN BAY PACKERS 

4. (455) MIAMI DOLPHINS at (456) CLEVELAND BROWNS
Actual Home Line: CLEVELAND BROWNS -2.5   
Effective Play-by-Play Line: CLEVELAND BROWNS -8.3
Difference: 5.8, Favors: CLEVELAND BROWNS 

5. (477) HOUSTON TEXANS at (478) SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Actual Home Line: SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -3
Effective Play-by-Play Line: SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -8.8 
Difference: 5.8, Favors: SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 

6. (473) ATLANTA FALCONS at (474) SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS     
Actual Home Line: SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS -2.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS +3.1   
Difference: 5.6, Favors: ATLANTA FALCONS

These are the top head-to-head series NFL betting trends between teams from recent years’ action:

(311) PITTSBURGH at (312) CINCINNATI
* PITTSBURGH has covered all four meetings with divisional rival Cincinnati in the last two seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-5.5 at CIN) 

(451) LA RAMS vs. (452) JACKSONVILLE
* The RAMS are 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS versus Jacksonville since 1996
Trend Match (PLAY): LA RAMS (-3 vs JAX) 

(453) LAS VEGAS at (454) KANSAS CITY
* Road teams are on a 5-1 ATS surge in the LVR-KC AFC West series in the last three seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): LAS VEGAS (+11.5 at KC) 

(455) MIAMI at (456) CLEVELAND
* Favorites are on a 4-0 SU and 3-0 ATS run in the MIA-CLE series
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-2.5 vs MIA) 

(457) NEW ENGLAND at (458) TENNESSEE
* Home teams are 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS in the NE-TEN series since 2015
Trend Match (PLAY): TENNESSEE (+7 vs NE) 

(459) NEW ORLEANS at (460) CHICAGO
* Under the total is 6-2 in the Saints-Bears matchups since 2014
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NO-CHI (o/u at 46.5)

(461) PHILADELPHIA at (462) MINNESOTA
* Home teams are 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in the PHI-MIN series since 2013
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (+1.5 vs PHI) 

(463) CAROLINA at (464) NY JETS
* Favorites are on a 7-0 SU and 5-1-1 ATS run in the CAR-NYJ nonconference series
Trend Match (PLAY): CAROLINA (-1.5 at NYJ) 

(465) INDIANAPOLIS at (466) LA CHARGERS
* The CHARGERS are 8-3 SU and 9-2 ATS versus Indianapolis since 2004
Trend Match (PLAY): LA CHARGERS (-1.5 vs IND)

* Under the total is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 of the IND-LAC series
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): IND-LAC (o/u at 48.5)

(467) NY GIANTS at (468) DENVER
* DENVER is 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS in games with NYG since 2001
Trend Match (PLAY): DENVER (-7 vs NYG) 

(469) WASHINGTON at (470) DALLAS
* DALLAS is on a 6-2 SU/7-1 ATS surge in the last four seasons versus WAS and a 6-2 SU/7-1 ATS surge in the last eight years hosting them at AT&T Stadium
Trend Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+2.5 vs WAS) 

(471) GREEN BAY at (472) ARIZONA
* Under the total is 4-0-1 in GB-ARI matchups since 2015
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): GB-ARI (o/u at 44.5) 

(473) ATLANTA at (474) SAN FRANCISCO
* Underdogs are on a 7-2 ATS surge in the Falcons-49ers series at San Francisco
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+2.5 at SF) 

(475) TAMPA BAY at (476) DETROIT
* Road teams are 9-2 SU and ATS in the TB-DET series since 2008, including four outright wins in six tries as road underdogs
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (+5.5 at DET) 

(477) HOUSTON at (478) SEATTLE
* Favorites are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in the HOU-SEA non-conference series since 2005
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-3 vs HOU)

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