The following NFL betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NFL games of Week 9. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFL board.

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top NFL betting trends and systems for this week’s NFL games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

New Orleans is 16-1 ATS in the last 17 road rematches
System Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS (-7.5 at CAR)

NFL Streaks Betting System #11: NFL teams that have won their last five games outright or more have gone 50-12 SU and 39-21-2 ATS (65%) since 2003 as road favorites against divisional opponents.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-3.5 at GB) 

Play on home teams in their pre-bye week game when it comes Week 8 or later on the NFL annual schedule. (Record: 68-34-2 ATS since 2010, 66.7%, +30.6 Units, 30% ROI, Grade 70)
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (+2 vs. LAC), SEATTLE (+2 vs. LAR), GREEN BAY (+3.5 vs. DET)

NY Jets are 2-15 SU while going 4-13 ATS in the last 17 primetime games
System Match: FADE NY JETS (-1.5 vs HOU) 

* JACKSONVILLE is on a horrific 4-36 SU and 8-32 ATS skid vs. teams with better records since 2011
System Match: FADE JACKSONVILLE (+7.5 at PHI)

* DENVER is 17-2 Under the total when coming off a double-digit victory since 2017
System Match: PLAY UNDER in DEN-BAL (o/u at 45.5)

* Over the total is 8-1-1 in the last 10 MIA-BUF matchups at Buffalo
System Match: PLAY OVER the total in MIA-BUF (o/u at 49) 

* KANSAS CITY’s Andy Reid is on 9-0 Under the total streak vs. elite offenses scoring >=27 PPG
System Match (PLAY UNDER): TB-KC (o/u at 45.5)

Since 2015, rookie starting quarterbacks facing underdog lines of 6.5 points or more have won just 18 games, going 18-114 SU and 50-78-4 ATS (39.1%).
System Match (FADE): DENVER (+9 at BAL)

Strategies Using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published in the 2024 NFL Betting Guide, Steve Makinen outlined 12 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022 and 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of Wednesday. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage. 

Now, here are the systems with updated language and records heading into the 2024 season. 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #1: Over the past two seasons, when more than 65% of the handle has been on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group is just 96-111 ATS (46.4%). The number for this “super-majority” in college football was closer to 80%. In other words, if you see 2/3 of the handle backing one side in an NFL game this season, it’s consistently profitable to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON, CLEVELAND, BALTIMORE, CINCINNATI, WASHINGTON, PHILADELPHIA, LA RAMS, DETROIT

NFL DK Betting Splits system #2: In NFL divisional games of 2022 and 2023, DK majority handle bettors were absolutely awful, as this majority group is just 71-100 ATS (41.5%). With the obvious generality that public bettors love favorites, it’s clear that they don’t value the stakes of these rivalry games and what they mean for the competitors.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW ORLEANS, BUFFALO, WASHINGTON, LA RAMS, DETROIT

NFL DK Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2 above, in that same time span, when the majority number of bets staked its side in an NFL divisional game, this majority group is just 76-99 ATS (43.4%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW ORLEANS, BUFFALO, WASHINGTON, LA RAMS, DETROIT

NFL DK Betting Splits system #4: In NFL non-conferences games of 2023, DK majority handle bettors were actually quite sharp, as this majority group was 41-29 ATS (58.6%). This is obviously quite the opposite performance level of #2 above, and unfortunately for bettors, there are two fewer non-conference tilts than divisional contests for each team on the schedule every year.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, MINNESOTA, KANSAS CITY

NFL DK Betting Splits system #5: Since the start of the 2022 season, when the majority number of bets has backed road favorites for an ATS wager, these majority groups are just 80-105 ATS (43.2%). I will tell you that there are only 15 games or less each year when this group will actually back the home dog.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW ORLEANS, WASHINGTON, LA RAMS, DETROIT

NFL DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority number of bets was on road underdogs for an ATS wager, these majority groups have actually produced adequate records, 61-54 ATS (53%) going back to September 2022. This matches up somewhat with the logic I used in explaining some college successes. When the public goes “against the grain,” they can do well.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): HOUSTON, NEW ENGLAND, DENVER, CHICAGO, TAMPA BAY 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle and number of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games over the last two seasons, these majority groups are just 61-81 ATS (43%) and 62-80 ATS (43.7%) respectively. This set of games includes all the Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests.
System Matches (FADE): MINNESOTA 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #8: In another rare winning record, when the majority of the handle has backed the team with fewer season wins in a 2022 or 2023 NFL game for an ATS wager, this majority group was 56-40 ATS (58.3%). This has proven to be another situation in which going against the grain pays off.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, LA RAMS 

DK Betting Splits system #9: The average NFL total in 2022 was 44.2. Last year, it dropped over a point to 43.0. In games where the totals reached 46.5 or higher and oddsmakers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, majority number of bettors rebounded incredibly in 2023, after going 28-53 ATS in ’22, they were. 44-24 ATS (64.7%) last year! We’ll see how that latter trend holds in ‘24.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING ALL): OVER – MIA-BUF, DAL-ATL, LVR-CIN, LAR-SEA, DET-GB, IND-MIN

DK Betting Splits system #10: When 56% or more of the handle has been on the Under in an NFL game total over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has been quite sharp, 59-42 ATS (58.4%). This number for a “super-majority” in the NFL is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total. Incidentally, the same majority figure for number of bets has also produced a 44-33 (57.1%) record.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NE-TEN, LAC-CLE, NO-CAR, MIA-BUF, DAL-ATL, LVR-CIN, CHI-ARI, DET-GB 

DK Betting Splits system #11: Quite the opposite of #9, the magic mark for a supermajority on the handle for betting Overs was 64% or higher, and this group performed miserably in 2022 and 2023 with a record of 86-123 (41.1%). To me, this has been a long-standing belief, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses. On number of bets, this same super majority percentage produced a slightly improved 87-104 (45.5%) record.
System Matches (INSTEAD PLAY UNDER ALL): HOU-NYJ, DEN-BAL, WAS-NYG, LAR-SEA

DK Betting Splits system #12: Call this one the Over trap, but when a super-majority (>=64%) of the handle has been on the Over, but DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week, this majority group has lost big, going just 30-59 (33.7%) over the past two seasons. Almost as if they were trying to bait more people into taking the Over. This is a classic example of where those behind the counter are smarter than those trying to cash the tickets.
System Matches (INSTEAD PLAY UNDER): HOU-NYJ

These are some of the top situational NFL betting trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action:

* ATLANTA is 55-45 SU but 36-64 ATS as a single-digit favorite since 2012
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA (-2.5 vs. DAL)
* ATLANTA is on 9-14 SU and 5-18 ATS skid on normal rest (7 days)
System Match: FADE ATLANTA (-2.5 vs. DAL)

* CAROLINA is 5-17 SU and 4-18 ATS vs. poor teams with winning percentages <=33% since 2017
System Match: FADE CAROLINA (+7.5 vs. NO) 

* CINCINNATI is 69-56 SU and 76-49 ATS when playing on normal rest (7 days) since 2012
System Match: PLAY CINCINNATI (-7 vs. LVR)

* DENVER is 17-2 Under the total when coming off a double-digit victory since 2017
System Match: PLAY UNDER in DEN-BAL (o/u at 45.5)

* DETROIT is 12-4 SU and 14-2 ATS when coming off a double-digit win since 2018
* DETROIT is on 15-9 SU and 19-5 ATS run vs. teams with a winning record
Systems Match: PLAY DETROIT (-3.5 at GB) 

* INDIANAPOLIS is 16-14 SU and 23-7 ATS vs. elite teams with point differentials of >=+4.5 PPG since 2015
System Match: PLAY INDIANAPOLIS (+5 at MIN)

* JACKSONVILLE is 8-46 SU and 12-41 ATS versus NFC foes since 2011
* JACKSONVILLE is on a horrific 4-36 SU and 8-32 ATS skid vs. teams with better records since 2011
System Match: FADE JACKSONVILLE (+7.5 at PHI)
* JACKSONVILLE is on 14-1 Under the total surge when coming off a loss to NFC foe
System Match: PLAY UNDER in JAX-PHI (o/u at 45.5)

* KANSAS CITY is 70-37 Under the total as a home favorite since 2010
System Match: PLAY UNDER in TB-KC (o/u at 45.5) 

* LA CHARGERS are 60-27 Under the total when coming off an outright win since 2013
* LA CHARGERS are on 21-6 Under the total surge in Sunday games
* LA CHARGERS are on 12-0 Under the total streak when playing on normal rest (7 days)
Systems Match: PLAY UNDER in LAC-CLE (o/u at 43) 

* MINNESOTA is 27-17 SU and 29-13 ATS versus AFC opponents since 2014
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (-5 vs. IND)
* MINNESOTA is 17-11 SU but only 7-21 ATS in its last 28 games as a home favorite
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA (-5 vs. IND)

* NY GIANTS are 15-24 SU but 24-13 ATS when playing on short rest (<7 days) since 2011
System Match: PLAY NY GIANTS (+3.5 vs WAS)
* NY GIANTS are 22-3 Under the total as home underdogs since 2020
System Match: PLAY UNDER in WAS-NYG (o/u at 43.5) 

* NY JETS are 7-25 SU and 9-21 ATS when playing on short rest (<7 days) since 2012
* NY JETS are on 7-20 SU and 5-21 ATS skid when coming off an upset loss since 2011
Systems Match: FADE NY JETS (-1.5 vs. HOU)

* TAMPA BAY is on 24-8 Over the total surge as a single-digit road underdog
System Match: PLAY OVER in TB-KC (o/u at 45.5) 

* TENNESSEE is on 5-20 SU and 6-19 ATS skid in Sunday games
System Match: FADE TENNESSEE (-3.5 vs. NE)

These are some of the top situational NFL betting trends that have developed with coaches in recent years of action:

* ATLANTA: Raheem Morris is on a 10-14 SU and 8-16 ATS slide in home games
System Match: FADE ATLANTA (-2.5 vs. DAL)
* ATLANTA: Raheem Morris is on 9-3 Over the total surge vs. teams with a losing record
System Match: PLAY OVER In DAL-ATL (o/u at 52) 

* CHICAGO: Matt Eberflus is on a 16-8 Over the total surge when coming off an outright loss
System Match: PLAY OVER in CHI-ARI (o/u at 44.5) 

* CINCINNATI: Zac Taylor boasts a 17-4 SU and 15-4 ATS record as a favorite of -3 to -7 points since 2022
System Match: PLAY CINCINNATI (-7 vs LVR) 

* CLEVELAND: Kevin Stefanski is on 7-17 SU and 6-16 ATS slide when coming off an outright win
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND (+1.5 vs LAC)
* CLEVELAND: Kevin Stefanski is 19-8 OVER the total vs. teams with a winning record since 2020
System Match: PLAY OVER In LAC-CLE (o/u at 43) 

* DALLAS: Mike McCarthy is just 13-28-1 SU and 14-28 ATS vs. teams with a winning record since 2017
System Match: FADE DALLAS (+2.5 at ATL) 

* DENVER: Sean Payton is 35-16 UNDER the total when coming off a double-digit win since 2013
System Match: PLAY UNDER in DEN-BAL (o/u at 45.5) 

* GREEN BAY: Matt Lafleur boasts an impressive record of 13-5 SU and 15-3 ATS as an underdog of +3 to +7 points since 2019
System Match: PLAY GREEN BAY (+3.5 vs. DET)

* JACKSONVILLE: Doug Pederson is 18-4 Under the total in November games since 2016
System Match: PLAY UNDER in JAX-PHI (o/u at 45.5)

* JACKSONVILLE’: Doug Pederson is 37-23 Over the total in road games since 2016
System Match: PLAY OVER in JAX-PHI (o/u at 45.5) 

* KANSAS CITY: Andy Reid is on 9-0 Under the total streak vs. elite offenses scoring >=27 PPG
* KANSAS CITY: Andy Reid is 31-10 Under the total as a home favorite of 7 points or more since 2011
Systems Match: PLAY UNDER in TB-KC (o/u at 45.5)

* KANSAS CITY: Andy Reid is on 13-3 SU and 12-3 ATS surge in non-conference games
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (-8.5 vs. TB)

* LA RAMS: Sean McVay is 5-4 SU but 0-8 ATS when his team plays with extra rest since 2022
* LA RAMS: Sean McVay is just 7-13 SU and 4-14 ATS in its last 20 November games
System Match: FADE LA RAMS (-1.5 at SEA)

* MIAMI: Mike McDaniel is on an 0-8 SU and ATS skid as a single-digit underdog
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+6 at BUF) 

* MINNESOTA: Kevin O’Connell is on 2-5 SU and 0-7 ATS skid as a home favorite
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA (-5 vs. IND)

* NEW ORLEANS: Dennis Allen is 12-2 Under the total vs. teams with a worse record since 2022
System Match: PLAY UNDER in NO-CAR (o/u at 43.5)

* NEW ORLEANS: Dennis Allen is on 10-9 SU and 12-6 ATS run vs. poor offenses scoring <19 PPG since 2012
System Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS (-7.5 at CAR)

* NY GIANTS: Brian Daboll is on 15-5 Under the total surge as a single-digit underdog
System Match: PLAY UNDER in WAS-NYG (o/u at 43.5)
* NY GIANTS: Brian Daboll boasts a decent 11-11 SU and 15-8 ATS record when coming off an outright loss since 2022
System Match: PLAY NY GIANTS (+3.5 vs. WAS)

* PHILADELPHIA: Nick Sirianni is 7-3 SU but 0-9 ATS vs. poor teams being outscored by 4.5 PPG or more since 2022
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-7.5 vs. JAX)
* PHILADELPHIA: Nick Sirianni boasts a 14-2 SU and 11-4 ATS record as a single-digit home favorite since 2021
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-7.5 vs. JAX)

* TAMPA BAY: Todd Bowles is just 4-11 SU and 2-12 ATS when his team plays with extra rest (>7 days) since 2017
System Match: FADE TAMPA BAY (+8.5 at KC)

* TAMPA BAY: Todd Bowles is 11-4 OVER the total vs. teams with a better record since 2017
System Match: PLAY OVER in TB-KC (o/u at 45.5) 

* WASHINGTON: Dan Quinn is 8-1 SU and 9-0 ATS vs. teams with a losing record since 2019
System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON (-3.5 at NYG)

NFL Rookie/Retread Coaching Systems

This NFL betting trend material is from the VSiN piece entitled Analyzing the New NFL Head Coaches for 2024 detailing systems that apply to rookie coaches Dave Canales (Carolina), Jerod Mayo (New England), Mike Macdonald (Seattle), Brian Callahan (Tennessee) as well as re-tread coaches Raheem Morris (Atlanta), Jim Harbaugh (LA Chargers), and Dan Quinn (Washington).

Rookie Coach Systems

(Games this week: NE-TEN(-3.5), NO-CAR(+9), LAR-SEA(+1.5))

Rookie head coaches have been far more proficient at covering point spreads on the road over the last decade. Here is the breakdown: Home games – 154-178-9 ATS (46.4%). Road/Neutral games – 176-160-8 ATS (52.4%).
System Matches: FADE HOME TEAMS – TENNESSEE, CAROLINA, SEATTLE

Rookie head coaches have also struggled in the large underdog role, going 31-124 SU (20%) and 73-80-2 ATS (47.7%) when catching 7 points or more since 2013.
System Match: FADE – CAROLINA

Rookie head coaches have also struggled in the revenge spot. When taking on a team they lost to earlier that season, they are just 26-45 SU and 32-38-1 ATS (45.7%) in the follow-up contest.
System Match: FADE – CAROLINA

Retread Coach Systems

(Games this week: DAL-ATL(-2.5), LAC(-1.5)-CLE, WAS(-3.5)-NYG)

Like the rookie head coaches, retread head coaches have been far more proficient at covering point spreads on the road over the last decade. Here is the breakdown: Home games – 83-115-1 ATS (41.9%). Road/Neutral games – 99-104-1 ATS (48.8%).
System Match: FADE HOME TEAMS – ATLANTA

Retread head coaches have been brutal bets as favorites but respectable in the underdog role in their first seasons with a new franchise. As favorites since 2014, they’ve gone 87-66 SU but just 52-90-11 ATS, for 36.6%! As dogs (or pick ’em), 81-185 SU and 130-129-7 ATS (50.2%).
System Matches: FADE FAVORITES – ATLANTA, LA CHARGERS, WASHINGTON

Retread head coaches have shown a tendency to start very slow at their new franchises and finish their first seasons more successfully when it comes to covering point spreads. Since 2014, in weeks #1-#10 of their first seasons, they’ve combined to go 95-138-8 ATS (40.8%), while in weeks #11 and later, they’ve gone 87-81-10 ATS (51.8%).
System Matches: FADE – ATLANTA, LA CHARGERS, WASHINGTON

Retread coaches have been solid in revenge scenarios over the last decade, going 24-20-3 ATS (54.5%) when having lost an earlier season game against an opponent. When having beat that team the first time around, these coaches have gone just 10-18-1 ATS (35.7%) in the rematch.
System Match: FADE – WASHINGTON

NFL Rookie Quarterback Systems

These systems take into account rookie quarterback records in their first seasons. They include game logs of any rookie who started seven or more games in that first season. The starters this week include Caleb Williams (Chicago), Jayden Daniels (Washington), Spencer Rattler (New Orleans), Drake Maye (New England), and Bo Nix (Denver), although others could join them down the road.

(Games this week: DEN(+9)-BAL, NE(+3.5)-TEN, CHI(+1)-ARI, WAS(-3.5)-NYG) 

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Rookie quarterbacks have struggled on the road, particularly late in the season
 The results of rookie quarterbacks on the road lately are startling. Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie starters have combined for a record of 114-110 ATS (50.9%) in home games but just 96-118-1 ATS (44.9%) in road/neutral games. In later season road games, week 10-EOY, they are just 32-94 SU and 52-72-2 ATS (41.9%).
System Matches: FADE – DENVER, NEW ENGLAND, CHICAGO, WASHINGTON

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #6 – Don’t fall for the big underdog point spreads with rookie quarterbacks
Since 2015, rookie starting quarterbacks facing underdog lines of 6.5 points or more have won just 18 games, going 18-114 SU and 50-78-4 ATS (39.1%).
System Match: FADE – DENVER

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #8 – Rookie quarterbacks are not good bets as road chalk
 Over the last 12 seasons, rookie starting quarterbacks have proven not worthy of backing as road favorites, going 22-20 SU but 18-23-1 ATS (43.9%).
System Match: FADE – WASHINGTON

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #10 – By type of opponent, divisional and non-conference matchups have been tougher for rookie starting quarterbacks
Since 2015, rookie QBs are just 42-94 SU and 55-77-4 ATS (41.7%) versus divisional opponents.
System Match: FADE – WASHINGTON

Since 2018, rookie QBs have fared well against non-divisional conference opponents, going 48-54 SU but 60-42 ATS (58.8%).
System Match: FADE – DENVER, NEW ENGLAND, CHICAGO

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #11 – Losses have tended to snowball for rookie QBs
In their last 144 starts with their teams coming off outright losses, rookie QB’s have gone just 48-98 SU and 64-80-2 ATS (44.4%). This trend dates back to 2018.
System Match: FADE – CHICAGO

Veteran Quarterback Leading New Team NFL Betting Trend Systems

These NFL betting trend systems take into account veteran quarterback records in their first season with a new team. They include game logs of 28 different veteran QBs since 2003 who have played at least eight years in the NFL and started extensively on a previous team. This week, there are three different QBs finding themselves in a new place: Aaron Rodgers (NY Jets), Joe Flacco (Indianapolis), and Kirk Cousins (Atlanta). 

(Games this week: HOU-NYJ(-1.5), DAL-ATL(-2.5), IND(+5)-MIN) 

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #4 – Non-Sunday games have been a struggle for veteran QBs with their new teams
Veteran quarterbacks have struggled under the spotlight of non-Sunday games lately, going 23-34 SU and 23-33-1 ATS (41.1%) in their last 57 such tries for their new teams. Moreover, they are 10-18-1 ATS (35.7%) in their last 29 Monday Night contests.
System Match: FADE – NY JETS 

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Veteran quarterbacks thrive with their new teams at home
 The results since 2005 of veteran quarterbacks playing with their new teams at home are quite impressive, as they have gone 118-70 SU and 99-78-11 ATS (55.9%).
System Matches: PLAY – NY JETS, ATLANTA 

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #6 – By type of opponent, non-divisional conference matchups have been best for veteran starting quarterbacks in their first season with new teams
Since 2005, veteran QBs in their first season with new teams have fared well against non-divisional conference opponents, going 80-65 SU and 80-63-2 ATS (55.9%).
System Matches: PLAY – NY JETS, ATLANTA

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #7 –Veteran QBs have shown a tendency to lead their teams back well after losses
In their last 135 starts with their new teams coming off outright losses, veteran QBs have gone 75-69 SU and 79-62-3 ATS (56%). This trend dates back to 2016.
System Matches: PLAY – NY JETS, INDIANAPOLIS

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #10 – Veteran quarterbacks are consistent bets as sizeable underdogs with new teams
Dating back to 2006, veteran starting quarterbacks in their first seasons with new teams have gone 42-68 SU but 63-42-5 ATS (60%) when playing as underdogs of 3 points or more.
System Match: PLAY – INDIANAPOLIS

NFL Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NFL betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NFL games and detail the results of the follow-up game for these teams.

BLOWOUT GAMES ARE RED FLAGS
NFL teams that win by 35 points or more in a home or neutral field game have not been good bets in the follow-up contest, going 21-17 SU but 12-25-1 ATS (32.4%) when favored in their last 38 opportunities.
System Match: FADE DETROIT (-3.5 at GB) 

The following NFL betting trends and systems come from a log of all the Thursday night (TNF), Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night (MNF) games since the start of the 2019 season. Only Thursday night games were included in the TNF study, not the day games played on Thanksgiving. The Sunday night games only included those games played On Sunday night, not all of the games covered by the NBC SNF crew, which also included some Wednesday and Saturday contests. The games analyzed were only regular-season games.

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Since the home teams last won three straight ATS on TNF in September 2020, road teams have been on a roll, 35-36 SU and 41-28-2 ATS (59.4%) in the last 71.
System Match: PLAY HOUSTON (+1.5 at NYJ)

There has been some interesting data regarding the first and second half of the season in terms of Thursday night games. In the first half of the season, or weeks 1-8, home teams have gone 24-22 SU but 15-29-2 ATS (34.1%). Going back even further, since 2016, TNF home teams in weeks 9 and later are 37-25 SU and 36-24-2 ATS (60%). There seems to be a fundamental edge to playing at home with less rest late in the season.
System Match: PLAY NY JETS (-1.5 vs. HOU)

Unfortunately, home cooking has not solved the ills for Thursday home teams coming off a loss in their most recent game, as they have been a brutal bet over the last four seasons, going 24-32 SU and 19-36-1 ATS (34.5%).
System Match: FADE NY JETS (-1.5 vs. HOU)

Bad TNF Team Trends
Houston 3-7 SU and ATS in the last 10
System Match: FADE HOUSTON (+1.5 at NYJ)

NY Jets 1-6 SU and ATS in the last seven, allowed 28.9 PPG
System Match: FADE NY JETS (-1.5 vs. HOU)

Over the total TNF Team Trends
NY Jets 6-3 OVER in L9
System Match: PLAY OVER in HOU-NYJ (o/u at 42)

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Home favorites of less than a TD on SNF have gone the opposite direction, showing a record of 18-13 SU and 12-19 ATS (38.7%) in their last 31 after going 40-18-2 ATS prior.
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA (-5 vs. IND)

In SNF games pitting non-conference opponents (AFC vs. NFC), home teams are just 25-23 SU and 17-29-2 ATS (37%) in the last 48. Under the total is also 27-13 (67.5%) in the last 40.
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA (-5 vs. IND), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 46.5)

Momentum has been big for hosts overall, as home teams on SNF coming off a loss in their last games are just 13-20 SU and 12-20-1 ATS (37.5%) in their last 33, but those coming off a win are on a current 22-5 SU and 17-10 ATS (63%) surge.
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA (-5 vs. IND)

Over the total SNF Team Trends
Indianapolis 11-1 Over since 2013
System Match: PLAY OVER in IND-MIN (o/u at 46.5)

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Laying 7 points or more has not been a good strategy on MNF, as favorites of 7 points or more are 43-15 SU but just 19-37-2 ATS (33.9%) since 2012.
System Match: FADE KANSAS CITY (-8.5 vs TB)

In MNF games pitting non-conference opponents (AFC vs. NFC), home teams are 26-24 SU but 15-33-2 ATS (31.3%) in the last 50.
System Match: FADE KANSAS CITY (-8.5 vs TB)

Won/lost records have mattered on MNF, as teams with the better record are 35-32 SU but just 24-41-2 ATS (36.9%) in the last 67 MNF games not matching teams with identical records.
System Match: FADE KANSAS CITY (-8.5 vs. TB)

Good MNF Team Trends
Kansas City 12-4 SU and 11-5 ATS since 2012
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (-8.5 vs. TB)

If you’ve picked up from each of the team NFL betting trends sections that certain teams are consistently doing well or poorly, or are going Over or Under regularly, you’re right. Here are some overall primetime game trends that you’re going to want to consider:

Bad PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trends
NY Jets 2-15 SU while going 4-13 ATS
System Match: FADE NY JETS (-1.5 vs HOU)

Tampa Bay 10-17 SU and 7-20 ATS in the last 27
System Match: FADE TAMPA BAY (+8.5 at KC) 

UNDER the total PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trends
Minnesota 21-12 Under primetime record since 2015
System Match: PLAY UNDER in IND-MIN (o/u at 46.5)

NFL Streaks Provide Some Advantages for Bettors

The following NFL betting trend systems were part of an article released in Week 8 of the 2023 NFL season focusing on winning and losing streaks. There were 15 different systems cited. These listed are the ones that have qualifying plays for this week’s action. 

NFL Streaks Betting System #3: NFL teams that have lost the last five ATS while being outscored by 50 points or more in that stretch are 24-50 SU but 47-26-1 ATS (64.4%) since 2007.
System Match (PLAY): CAROLINA (+7.5 vs. NO)

NFL Streaks Betting System #4: NFL teams that have won their last three games ATS with a point margin of +10 or less in that stretch have gone just 17-40 SU and 15-38-4 ATS (28.3%) in game #4 since 2003.
System Match (FADE): INDIANAPOLIS (+5 at MIN) 

NFL Streaks Betting System #11: NFL teams that have won their last five games outright or more have gone 50-12 SU and 39-21-2 ATS (65%) since 2003 as road favorites against divisional opponents.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-3.5 at GB)

NFL Streaks Betting System #12: NFL teams that have lost at least their last three games outright have gone 55-35 SU but 34-53-3 ATS (39.1%) when favored by 3 points or more since 2013.
System Match (FADE ALL): TENNESSEE (-3.5 vs. NE), NEW ORLEANS (-7.5 at CAR)

The following systems and NFL betting trends are from the long-running article series detailing pre- and post-bye week performance in the NFL. These records are from only in-season bye weeks and do not include playoffs or preseason

Pre-bye week system #1:
Play on any team heading into their bye week when facing a divisional opponent, assuming opponent is not in the same situation. (Record: 54-21-2 ATS since ‘13, 72%, +30.9 Units, 41.2% ROI, Grade 73)
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SEATTLE (+2 vs. LAR), GREEN BAY (+3.5 vs. DET)

Pre-bye week system #3
Play on home teams in their pre-bye week game when it comes Week 8 or later on the NFL annual schedule. (Record: 68-34-2 ATS since 2010, 66.7%, +30.6 Units, 30% ROI, Grade 70)
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (+2 vs. LAC), SEATTLE (+2 vs. LAR), GREEN BAY (+3.5 vs. DET)

Pre-bye week system #4
Play on home underdogs heading into their bye week. (Record: 32-19-3 ATS since ’15, 62.7%, +11.1 Units, 21.8% ROI, Grade 68)
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (+2 vs. LAC), SEATTLE (+2 vs. LAR), GREEN BAY (+3.5 vs. DET)

Pre-bye week system #8
Play against any teams heading into their bye week and playing as underdogs of more than 7 points (Record: 40-7 SU and 32-14-1 ATS since ’08, 69.6%, +16.6 Units, 36.1% ROI, Grade 70)
System Match (PLAY): LAS VEGAS (*if they fall into this line range, +7 currently*)

* Please note that the systems above and all of the following trends only include bye week games from the regular season schedule, not playoffs. 

Cleveland Browns Pre-Bye Week Game: 11/3 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Cleveland is on a 3-10 SU and ATS slide in pre-bye week games, including 3-7 SU and ATS at home
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND (+2 vs. LAC)

The Browns are 14-7-1 Under the total in pre-bye week games since 2002
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 42.5)

Green Bay Packers Pre-Bye Week Game: 11/3 vs. Detroit Lions
The Packers are 4-1 SU and ATS in pre-bye week games under head coach Matt LaFleur
System Match: PLAY GREEN BAY (+3.5 vs DET)

Green Bay is on a 15-2 SU and 11-5-1 ATS surge in pre-bye week home games, scoring 30.2 PPG
System Match: PLAY GREEN BAY (+3.5 vs. DET)

Las Vegas Raiders Pre-Bye Week Game: 11/3 at Cincinnati Bengals
The Raiders are on a 9-5 SU and 9-3-2 ATS run in pre-bye week road games
System Match: PLAY LAS VEGAS (+7 at CIN)

The Raiders are on a 7-1 Over the total run in pre-bye week games
System Match: PLAY OVER in LVR-CIN (o/u at 46.5)

Seattle Seahawks Pre-Bye Week Game: 11/3 vs. Los Angeles Rams
The Seahawks are 12-1 SU and 10-3 ATS in pre-bye week games since 2011
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE (+2 vs. LAR)

The Seahawks are 8-2 Under the total in their last 10 pre-bye week games, allowing just 14.3 PPG
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 48.5)

Handicapping NFL Rematch Games

The following NFL betting trends and betting systems come from same-season rematch data over the last 13 seasons 

Best NFL rematch teams lately
Miami 11-5 ATS L16, including 6-2 in the last eight
System Match: PLAY MIAMI (+6 at BUF)

New Orleans: 14-3 SU and ATS run
System Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS (-7 at CAR)

Worst NFL rematch teams lately
Carolina: 13-21 SU and 11-23 ATS in rematches since 2014
System Match: FADE CAROLINA (+7 vs. NO)

Best NFL home rematch teams lately
Buffalo: 16-5 SU and 12-9 ATS in the last 21 home rematches, scoring 29.7 PPG
System Match: PLAY BUFFALO (-6 vs. MIA)

Worst NFL home rematch teams lately
Carolina: 2-10 ATS in the last 12 at home
System Match: FADE CAROLINA (+7 vs. NO)

Best NFL road rematch teams lately
New Orleans: 16-1 ATS L17 on road
System Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS (-7 at CAR)

Noteworthy head-to-head second-time (and 3rd) around NFL betting trends
Buffalo: 12-3 ATS streak vs. Miami and New England since 12/31/17
System Match: PLAY BUFFALO (-6 vs. MIA)

Rematch Betting System
Teams that won by 21 or more points in the opening game between teams are 81-25 SU and 67-39 ATS (63.2%) in the rematch
System Match (PLAY ALL): BUFFALO (-6 vs. MIA), NEW ORLEANS (-7 at CAR)

This week’s NFL Strength Ratings

The following NFL betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. HOUSTON +1.5 (+1.9)
2. DENVER +9 (+1.8)
3. SEATTLE +1.5 (+1.3)
4(tie). GREEN BAY +3.5 (+1.2)
CHICAGO +1 (+1.2) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BUFFALO -6 (+2.7)
2. WASHINGTON -3.5 (+1.9)
3. MINNESOTA -5 (+1.8)
4. KANSAS CITY -8.5 (+1.2)
5. LA CHARGERS -1.5 (+0.9) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SEATTLE +1.5 (+2.1)
2. MIAMI +6 (+1.7)
3. DENVER +9 (+1.2)
4(tie). TAMPA BAY +8.5 (+0.4)
NEW ENGLAND +3.5 (+0.4) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ARIZONA -1 (+1.6)
2(tie). CINCINNATI -7 (+1.5)
DETROIT -3.5 (+1.5)
4. NEW ORLEANS -7.5 (+1.2)
5. LA CHARGERS -1.5 (+0.9) 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NO-CAR OVER 43.5 (+3.7)
2. WAS-NYG OVER 43.5 (+1.8)
3. NE-TEN OVER 38 (+1.0)
4. JAX-PHI OVER 45.5 (+0.8)
5. HOU-NYJ OVER 42 (+0.3)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LAC-CLE UNDER 43 (-2.9)
2. MIA-BUF UNDER 49 (-1.7)
3. CHI-ARI UNDER 44.5 (-0.9)
4. DAL-ATL UNDER 52 (-0.2)
5. LAR-SEA UNDER 48 (-0.1) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. JACKSONVILLE +7.5 (+5.4)
2. DALLAS +3 (+4.2)
3. GREEN BAY +3.5 (+3.8)
4. SEATTLE +1.5 (+2.3)
5. MIAMI +6 (+2.0) 

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TENNESSEE -3.5 (+6.7)
2. MINNESOTA -5 (+4.2)
3. LA CHARGERS -1.5 (+3.6)
4. CINCINNATI -7 (+3.1)
5. ARIZONA -1 (+2.4)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1(tie). NE-TEN OVER 38 (+2.0)
JAX-PHI OVER 45.5 (+2.0)
3. NO-CAR OVER 43.5 (+1.9)
4. HOU-NYJ OVER 42 (+1.6)
5. DET-GB OVER 48.5 (+1.5)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LAC-CLE UNDER 43 (-4.0)
2. MIA-BUF UNDER 49 (-3.3)
3. IND-MIN UNDER 46.5 (-1.5)
4. DAL-ATL UNDER 52 (-1.3)
5. LVR-CIN UNDER 46.5 (-1.0)

Top NFL Starting Quarterback Betting Trends 

* Jared Goff (DET) is 31-25 SU and 40-16 ATS (71.4%) with current head coach Dan Campbell. The average line was +1.2, Team average PF: 25.1
System Match: PLAY DETROIT (-3.5 at GB) 

* Jalen Hurts (PHI) is 19-3 SU and 13-8-1 ATS (61.9%) as a home favorite. The average line was -7.4, Team average PF: 30.2
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-7.5 vs. JAX)

* Joe Burrow (CIN) is 16-9 SU and 17-8 ATS (68%) vs. non-divisional conference foes. The average line was -0.4, Team average PF: 24.6
System Match: PLAY CINCINNATI (-7 vs. LVR)

* Patrick Mahomes (KC) is 29-2 SU but 12-18-1 ATS (40%) in his last 31 games as a favorite of more than 7 points. The average line was -10.8, Team average PF: 28.3
System Match: FADE KANSAS CITY (-8.5 vs. TB) 

* Trevor Lawrence (JAC) is 3-13 SU and 4-12 ATS (25%) in non-conference games. The average line was +3.6, Team average PF: 17.3
System Match: FADE JACKSONVILLE (+7.5 at PHI)

These are the top head-to-head series NFL betting trends between teams from recent years’ action:

(311) HOUSTON at (312) NY JETS
* Underdogs are on 6-0-1 ATS run in the HOU-NYJ series
System Match: PLAY HOUSTON ATS 

(469) CHICAGO at (470) ARIZONA
* Over the total is 6-1 ATS in the last seven of the CHI-ARI series
System Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(459) DALLAS at (460) ATLANTA
* Under the total is 6-1 in the last seven of the DAL-ATL series in Atlanta
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total 

(461) DENVER at (462) BALTIMORE
* The last four games of the DEN-BAL series went Under the total
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total 

(473) DETROIT at (474) GREEN BAY
* Road teams have won the last three SU and ATS in the DET-GB rivalry
System Match: PLAY DETROIT ATS 

(465) INDIANAPOLIS at (466) MINNESOTA
* INDIANAPOLIS has won the last five ATS vs. Minnesota
System Match: PLAY INDIANAPOLIS ATS

(475) JACKSONVILLE at (476) PHILADELPHIA
* PHILADELPHIA has won the last four ATS vs. Jacksonville
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA ATS

(453) LA CHARGERS at (454) CLEVELAND
* Underdogs are 9-2-1 ATS in the last 12 of the LAC-CLE series
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND ATS

(471) LA RAMS at (472) SEATTLE
* LA RAMS have won the last four ATS at Seattle
System Match: PLAY LA RAMS ATS

(463) LAS VEGAS at (464) CINCINNATI
* CINCINNATI is on a 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS run hosting Raiders
System Match: PLAY CINCINNATI ATS

(457) MIAMI at (458) BUFFALO
* Over the total is 8-1-1 in the last 10 MIA-BUF matchups at Buffalo
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

(451) NEW ENGLAND at (452) TENNESSEE
* Favorites are 8-4-1 ATS in the last 13 of the NE-TEN series
System Match: PLAY TENNESSEE ATS

(455) NEW ORLEANS at (456) CAROLINA
* The last four games of the NO-CAR rivalry in Carolina went Under the total
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(467) WASHINGTON at (468) NY GIANTS
* Under the total is 6-0-1 in the last seven of the WAS-NYG series at New York
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total(477)

TAMPA BAY at (478) KANSAS CITY
* Underdogs are on a 5-1-1 ATS run in the TB-KC series
System Match: PLAY TAMPA BAY ATS

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