The following NFL betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NFL Wild Card games. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFL board.

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top NFL betting trends and systems for this week’s NFL games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

– Road teams playing in their first playoff game in at least two seasons against a repeat playoff team from the prior season are an ugly 9-30 SU and 12-26-1 ATS (31.6%) since 2007, ALL WILDCARD GAMES.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA CHARGERS (-3 at HOU), DENVER (+8.5 at BUF), WASHINGTON (+3 at TB), MINNESOTA (-1.5 at LAR)

*Minnesota is 13-2 Under in the last 15 Monday Night Football games, incl. 8-1 on road
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIN-LAR (o/u at 47.5)

*Teams that lose outright to divisional rivals as double-digit favorites have bounced back in the next contest with a 15-2 SU and 13-4 ATS (76.5%) record since 2015.
System Match (PLAY): GREEN BAY (+4.5 at PHI)

*Teams that lost the prior game to an opponent but now have a record 20% or better outright have gone 45-15 SU and 38-22 ATS (63.3%) in the rematch contest
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-1.5 at LAR)

* PHILADELPHIA is 19-3 Under the total in January games since 2011
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): GB-PHI (o/u at 45.5)

-Road teams averaging 7.5 or more yards per pass attempt have been dangerous in playoffs, going 28-32 SU but 39-19-2 ATS (67.2%) since 2004.
System Matches (PLAY ALL ATS): LA CHARGERS (-3 at HOU), GREEN BAY (+4.5 at PHI), WASHINGTON (+3 at TB), MINNESOTA (-1.5 at LAR)

*In their last 12 playoff games, the veteran quarterbacks in new places are 9-3 SU and 8-4 ATS (66.7%).
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (+9.5 at BAL)

* HOUSTON is on 16-55 SU and 25-45 ATS slide vs. elite teams with point differential of >=+4.5 PPG since 2010
Trend Match (FADE): HOUSTON (+3 vs LAC)

#1 TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections: MIN-LAR UNDER 47.5 (-1.3 difference)

Strategies Using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published in the 2024 NFL Betting Guide, Steve Makinen outlined 12 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022 and 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of Tuesday afternoon. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage. 

Here are the systems with updated language and records we will continue to track for the rest of the 2024 season. 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #1: Over the past two-plus seasons, when more than 65% of the handle has been on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group is just 130-139 ATS (48.3%). The number for this “super-majority” in college football was closer to 80%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA CHARGERS, BUFFALO, PHILADELPHIA, MINNESOTA 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #2: In NFL divisional games of 2022-24, DK majority handle bettors have been awful, as this majority group is just 91-117 ATS (43.8%). With the obvious generality that public bettors love favorites, it’s clear that they don’t value the stakes of these rivalry games and what they mean for the competitors.
System Match (FADE): BALTIMORE

NFL DK Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2 above, in that same time span, when the majority number of bets staked its side in an NFL divisional game, this majority group is just 96-114 ATS (45.7%).
System Match (FADE): BALTIMORE 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #5: Since the start of the 2022 season, when the majority number of bets has backed road favorites for an ATS wager, these majority groups are just 108-123 ATS (46.7%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA CHARGERS, MINNESOTA 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority number of bets was on road underdogs for an ATS wager, these majority groups have actually produced adequate records, 71-65 ATS (52.2%) going back to September 2022. This matches up somewhat with the logic I used in explaining some college successes. When the public goes “against the grain,” they can do well.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): WASHINGTON 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle and number of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games over the last two seasons, these majority groups are just 78-95 ATS (45.1%) and 76-94 ATS (44.7%) respectively. This set of games includes all the Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA CHARGERS, BALTIMORE, WASHINGTON, MINNESOTA 

The following are some new money line systems we will be employing going forward…

NFL DK Betting Splits system #10: Super majority handle bettors of more than 75% have also struggled in games when backing bigger favorites on money lines. In games with point spreads of -4.5 or higher (approx. -225 or more ML), this super majority group has gone just 23-13 but for -15.53 units of loss, an ROI of -43.1% in ‘24. Public bettors tend to look at these games as more “automatic” wagers, and as you can tell, they aren’t.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE, BUFFALO, PHILADELPHIA 

These next systems cover totals… 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #12: Since 2022, the average NFL total has been right around 44 or a tic higher. Since mid-2023, majority handle bettors have been very sharp in dealing with totals at or below that number (44 or less). In fact, since November 2023, these groups have gone 97-66 (59.5%)! It’s in the higher totaled games that they typically fare worse.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – LAC-HOU
UNDER – PIT-BAL 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #13: When 56% or more of the handle has been on the Under in an NFL game total over the last two seasons, this majority group has been quite sharp, 70-52 ATS (57.4%). This number for a “super-majority” in the NFL is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total. Incidentally, the same majority figure for number of bets has also produced a 54-39 (58.1%) record.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): PIT-BAL

NFL DK Betting Splits system #14: Quite the opposite of #9, the magic mark for super majority on handle for betting Overs was 64% or higher, and this group performed miserably in 2022-24 with a record of 121-153 (44.2%). To me, this has been a long-standing belief, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses.
System Matches (INSTEAD PLAY UNDER ALL): DEN-BUF, MIN-LAR 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #15: Call this one the Over trap, but when a super-majority (>=64%) of handle has been on the Over, but DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week, this majority group has lost big, going just 50-74 (40.3%) over the past two-plus seasons. Almost as if they were trying to bait more people into taking the Over. This is a classic example of where those behind the counter are smarter than those trying to cash the tickets.
System Matches (INSTEAD PLAY UNDER): MIN-LAR

Here are some of the best ways to take advantage of playoff-specific data qualified for this week’s matchups: 

Line Range/Matchup Betting Systems

– Home underdogs in NFL playoff games are currently on a 6-4 SU and 8-2 ATS run heading into the 2025 postseason. This trend dates back to 2016.
Trend Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON (+3 vs. LAC), LA RAMS (+1.5 vs. MIN)

– The most vulnerable home teams in recent NFL playoffs in terms of covering lines have been those priced in the -7 to -9.5 line range, as they are 28-10 SU but just 12-25-1 ATS (32.4%) since 2011.
System Matches (FADE ALL ATS): BALTIMORE (-9.5 vs. PIT), BUFFALO (-8.5 vs. DEN) 

– In the last 26 NFL playoff games matching divisional opponents, home teams have gone 14-12 SU but just 9-17 ATS (34.6%). This trend dates back to 2003.
System Match (FADE ATS): BALTIMORE (-9.5 vs. PIT) 

– There have been 30 NFL playoff games since 2003 in which the road team won more games in the regular season. These visitors are just 14-16 SU and 11-18-1 ATS (37.9%).
System Match (FADE ALL): LA CHARGERS (-3 at HOU), WASHINGTON (+3 at TB), MINNESOTA (-1.5 at LAR)

Team Statistical Betting Systems

– Home teams scoring less than 22.5 PPG have actually fared well in the NFL playoffs recently, going 14-5 SU and 13-5-1 ATS (72.2%) since 2009.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON (+3 vs. LAC), LA RAMS (+1.5 vs. MIN)

– Road teams scoring less than 22.5 PPG have struggled terribly in the NFL playoffs, going 8-26 SU and 11-23 ATS (32.4%) since 2009.
System Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (+9.5 at BAL) 

– Road teams averaging 7.5 or more yards per pass attempt have been dangerous in playoffs, going 28-32 SU but 39-19-2 ATS (67.2%) since 2004.
System Matches (PLAY ALL ATS): LA CHARGERS (-3 at HOU), GREEN BAY (+4.5 at PHI), WASHINGTON (+3 at TB), MINNESOTA (-1.5 at LAR) 

– Home teams allowing more than 7.0 yards per pass attempt have been quite unreliable for bettors in the postseason, going 11-11 SU but 6-15-1 (28.6%) ATS since 2012.
System Match (FADE): LA RAMS (+1.5 vs. MIN)

– Home teams allowing 5.5 or fewer yards per pass attempt have been solid bets in the playoffs, going 19-7 SU and 16-10 ATS (61.5%) since 2002.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-4.5 vs. GB) 

– Road teams that avoid turnovers (<=1.0 giveaways per game) have surprisingly not fared well in the playoffs of late, going 2-17 SU and 6-13 ATS (31.6%) since 2004.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA CHARGERS (-3 at HOU), PITTSBURGH (+9.5 at BAL), WASHINGTON (+3 at TB)

– Road teams that force a lot of turnovers (>=1.8 takeaways per game) have been consistently strong betting options in the playoffs for many years, going 50-30-2 ATS (62.5%) since 2002.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (+9.5 at BAL), GREEN BAY (+4.5 at PHI), MINNESOTA (-1.5 at LAR)

– Home teams scoring 30+ points per game but not installed as double-digit favorites have not been good betting options in the postseason, going 19-14 SU but 12-21 ATS (36.4%) since 2004. 
System Match (FADE ATS): BUFFALO (-8.5 vs. DEN)

First-Time Playoff QB Systems

– Quarterbacks starting their first playoff game in the NFL have gone just 12-23 SU and 14-21 ATS (40%) since 2014, and 27-47 ATS (36.5%) since 2003
System Matches (FADE ALL): DENVER (+8.5 at BUF), WASHINGTON (+3 at TB), MINNESOTA (-1.5 at LAR)

– Quarterbacks starting their first playoff game in the NFL and playing as an underdog are 9-26 SU and 13-21-1 ATS (38.2%) since 2006.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DENVER (+8.5 at BUF), WASHINGTON (+3 at TB) 

– Quarterbacks in their first playoff game are just 20-44 SU and 22-41-1 ATS (34.9%) since 2004 when matched up against an opposing QB not in their first playoff game.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DENVER (+8.5 at BUF), WASHINGTON (+3 at TB), MINNESOTA (-1.5 at LAR) 

Playoff Drought Systems

– Teams playing in their first playoff game in at least two seasons against a repeat playoff team from the prior season are just 13-28 SU and 16-25 ATS (39%) over the last 12 seasons and 28-46-1 ATS (37.8%) since 2004.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA CHARGERS (-3 at HOU), DENVER (+8.5 at BUF), WASHINGTON (+3 at TB), MINNESOTA (-1.5 at LAR) 

– On the road, these “drought” teams are an ugly 9-30 SU and 12-26-1 ATS (31.6%) since 2007, ALL WILDCARD GAMES.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA CHARGERS (-3 at HOU), DENVER (+8.5 at BUF), WASHINGTON (+3 at TB), MINNESOTA (-1.5 at LAR)

These are some of the top situational NFL betting trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action: 

(375) LA CHARGERS at (376) HOUSTON
* LA CHARGERS are 62-32 Under the total when coming off an outright win since 2013
* LA CHARGERS’s Jim Harbaugh owns a solid 31-8 SU and 28-9 ATS NFL mark as a favorite of -3 to -7 points since 2011
Trends Match: PLAY LA CHARGERS (-3 at HOU), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 42.5)

* HOUSTON is on 16-55 SU and 25-45 ATS slide vs. elite teams with a point differential of >=+4.5 PPG since 2010
* HOUSTON’s DeMeco Ryans is on 12-4 Under the total surge vs. teams with a winning record
* HOUSTON’s CJ Stroud is 13-6 Under the total in the last 19 games with his team coming off a win
Trends Match: FADE HOUSTON (+3 vs LAC), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 42.5) 

(377) PITTSBURGH at (378) BALTIMORE
* PITTSBURGH is 101-69 UNDER the total (59.4%) since 2015
* PITTSBURGH is 36-19 ATS (65.5%) as an underdog since 2018
* PITTSBURGH is 18-9 SU and 19-8 ATS vs. teams with better records since 2013
* PITTSBURGH’s Russell Wilson is on 15-6 Over the total surge vs. teams with better records
* PITTSBURGH’s Russell Wilson is 7-1 Over the total in January games since 2020
Trends Match: PLAY PITTSBURGH (+10 at BAL), also 2 PLAYS OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 43.5)

* BALTIMORE is 26-13 SU but 13-25 ATS as a divisional home favorite since 2010
* BALTIMORE’s John Harbaugh is 16-5 Under the total in January games since 2012
* BALTIMORE’s Lamar Jackson is 30-9 SU and 25-13 ATS in a game following up scoring 30+ points since 2018
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of BALTIMORE (-10 vs PIT), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 43.5) 

(379) DENVER at (380) BUFFALO
* DENVER is 17-6 Under the total when coming off a double-digit victory since 2017
* DENVER is 97-67 Under the total (59.1%) since 2015
* DENVER’s Sean Payton is 35-20 Under the total when coming off a double-digit win since 2013
Trends Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 46.5)

* BUFFALO is 20-6 SU and 21-5 ATS vs. elite defenses allowing <19 PPG since 2018
* BUFFALO is 38-28 ATS (57.6%) in non-divisional conference games since 2017
* BUFFALO’s Sean McDermott is 26-14 Under the total when coming off an outright loss since 2017
Trends Match: PLAY BUFFALO (-8.5 vs. DEN), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 46.5)

(381) GREEN BAY at (382) PHILADELPHIA
* GREEN BAY is 23-15 ATS (60.5%) when coming off SU loss since 2018
* GREEN BAY’s Matt Lafleur boasts an impressive record of 13-6 SU and 15-3-1 ATS as an underdog of +3 to +7 points since 2019
Trends Match: PLAY GREEN BAY (+4.5 at PHI)

* PHILADELPHIA is 19-7 Over the total when coming off a home win since 2021
* PHILADELPHIA is 19-3 Under the total in January games since 2011
* PHILADELPHIA’s Nick Sirianni boasts a 19-2 SU and 15-5 ATS record as a single-digit home favorite since 2021
Trends Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-4.5 vs. GB), also 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 45.5)

(383) WASHINGTON at (384) TAMPA BAY
* WASHINGTON is 24-12-1 ATS (66.7%) when coming off a SU win since 2019
Trend Match: PLAY WASHINGTON (+3 at TB)

* TAMPA BAY is 38-50 ATS (43.2%) at home since 2014
* TAMPA BAY’s Todd Bowles is 13-5 Over the total vs. teams with a better record since 2017
* TAMPA BAY’s Baker Mayfield is 14-8 SU but 7-15 ATS as a home favorite since 2020
Trends Match: FADE TAMPA BAY (-3 vs. WAS), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 50.5) 

(385) MINNESOTA at (386) LA RAMS
* MINNESOTA’s Kevin O’Connell is 13-6 Over the total vs. teams with a winning record since 2022
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 47.5)

* LA RAMS are 24-15 ATS (61.5%) when coming off SU loss since 2019
* LA RAMS’s Sean McVay is 7-6 SU but 3-9 ATS when his team plays with extra rest since 2022
* LA RAMS’ Matthew Stafford is 33-62 SU and 34-59 ATS vs. teams with winning records since 2011
* LA RAMS’s Matthew Stafford is 9-29 SU and 13-24 ATS as a home underdog since 2011
Trend Match: 1 PLAY, 3 FADES of LA RAMS (+1.5 vs. MIN)

NFL Retread Coaching Systems

This material is from the VSiN piece entitled Analyzing the New NFL Head Coaches for 2024 detailing systems that apply to retread coaches Jim Harbaugh (LA Chargers) and Dan Quinn (Washington). 

Retread Coach Systems

(Games this week: LAC(-3)-HOU, WAS(+3)-TB)

– Retread head coaches have been brutal bets as favorites but respectable in the underdog role in their first seasons with a new franchise. As favorites since 2014, they’ve gone 102-71 SU but just 64-98-11 ATS, for 39.5%! As dogs (or pick ’em), 82-192 SU and 132-135-7 ATS (49.4%).
System Match (FADE): LA CHARGERS

– Retread coaches have been solid in revenge scenarios over the last decade, going 26-21-3 ATS (55.3%) when having lost an earlier season game against an opponent. When having beat that team the first time around, these coaches have gone just 13-20-1 ATS (39.4%) in the rematch.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): WASHINGTON

NFL Rookie Quarterback Systems

These systems take into account rookie quarterback records in their first seasons. They include game logs of any rookie who started seven or more games in that first season. The starters this week include Bo Nix (Denver) and Jayden Daniels (Washington). 

(Games this week: DEN(+8.5)-BUF, WAS(+3)-TB) 

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #2 – Rookie quarterbacks are a risky bet in the postseason
·        In their last 16 playoff games, rookie quarterbacks are just 5-11 SU and ATS (31.3%). Take away Joe Flacco’s 2009 run, and the record drops to 3-10 SU and ATS.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DENVER, WASHINGTON

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Rookie quarterbacks have struggled on the road, particularly late in the season
· The results of rookie quarterbacks on the road lately are startling. Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie starters have combined for a record of 124-118-1 ATS (51.2%) in home games but just 106-131-2 ATS (44.7%) in road/neutral games. In later season road games, week 10-EOY, they are just 37-107 SU and 59-83-2 ATS (41.5%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): DENVER, WASHINGTON

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #6 – Don’t fall for the big underdog point spreads with rookie quarterbacks
–  Since 2015, rookie starting quarterbacks facing underdog lines of 6.5 points or more have won just 20 games, going 20-123 SU and 56-83-4 ATS (40.3%).
System Match (FADE): DENVER

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #10 – By type of opponent, non-divisional conference matchups have been better for rookie starting quarterbacks
– Since 2018, rookie QB’s have fared well against non-divisional conference opponents, going 53-64 SU but 66-50-1 ATS (56.9%).
System Match (PLAY ALL ATS): DENVER, WASHINGTON

NFL Veteran Quarterback Leading New Team Systems

These systems take into account veteran quarterback records in their first season with a new team. They include game logs of 28 different veteran QBs since 2003 who have played at least eight years in the NFL and started extensively on a previous team. This year, only one made the playoffs: Russell Wilson (Pittsburgh). 

(Game this week: PIT(+10)-BAL)

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #3 – Veteran quarterbacks are a solid bet in the postseason
·  In their last 12 playoff games, the veteran quarterbacks in new places are 9-3 SU and 8-4 ATS (66.7%).
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH 

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #4 – Non-Sunday games have been a struggle for veteran QBs with their new teams
·  Veteran quarterbacks have struggled under the spotlight of non-Sunday games lately, going 25-38 SU and 25-37-1 ATS (40.3%) in their last 63 such tries for their new teams. Moreover, they are 10-19-1 ATS (34.5%) in their last 30 Monday Night contests.
System Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #10 – Veteran quarterbacks are consistent bets as sizeable underdogs with new teams
· Dating back to 2006, veteran starting quarterbacks in their first seasons with new teams have gone 45-77 SU but 67-50-5 ATS (57.3%) when playing as underdogs of 3 points or more.
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH

NFL Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NFL games and detail the results of the follow-up game for these teams. 

HUGE DIVISIONAL UPSETS
Teams that lose outright to divisional rivals as double-digit favorites have bounced back in the next contest with a 15-2 SU and 13-4 ATS (76.5%) record since 2015.
System Match (PLAY): GREEN BAY (+4.5 at PHI)

SHUTOUTS ARE EXTREMES
Teams off of a home shutout win have actually been dreadful in the next outing recently in the NFL, going 15-19 SU and 12-21-1 ATS (36.4%) in their last 34 games following up that extremely good defensive performance.
System Match (FADE): DENVER (+8.5 at BUF) 

The following NFL betting trends and systems come from a log of all the Sunday night (SNF) and Monday night (MNF) games since the start of the 2019 season. The Sunday night games only included those games played on Sunday night, not all of the games covered by the NBC SNF crew, which also included some Wednesday and Saturday contests. 

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

·Home favorites of less than a TD on SNF have gone the complete opposite direction, showing a record of 24-13 SU and 17-20 ATS (45.9%) in their last 37 after going 40-18-2 ATS prior.
System Match: CONSIDER FADING TAMPA BAY (-3 vs. WAS)

·  Momentum has been big for hosts overall, as home teams on SNF coming off a loss in their last games are just 14-21 SU and 14-20-1 ATS (41.2%) in their last 35, but those coming off a win are on a current 28-7 SU and 22-13 ATS (62.9%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-3 vs. WAS) 

UNDER the total SNF Team Trends
Tampa Bay 6-2 Under stretch
System Match (PLAY UNDER): WAS-TB (o/u at 50.5)

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

· NFL home underdogs on Monday Night are on a run of 13-17 SU and 16-13-1 ATS (55.2%) dating back to September 2021. The last 28 of these games have seen Under the total go 20-6-2 (76.9%) as well, games producing just 39.2 PPG.
Systems Match: CONSIDER PLAYING LA RAMS (+1.5 vs. MIN), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 47.5)

· In non-divisional conference matchups on MNF, hosts are on a 19-20 SU and 23-16 ATS (59%) surge since 2019.
System Match (PLAY): LA RAMS (+1.5 vs. MIN)

·  Won/lost records have mattered on MNF, as teams with the better record are 42-35 SU but just 29-46-2 ATS (38.7%) in the last 77 MNF games not matching teams with identical records.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-1.5 at LAR) 

UNDER the total MNF Team Trends
Minnesota is 13-2 Under in the last 15, including 8-1 on road
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MIN-LAR (o/u at 47.5) 

If you’ve picked up from each of the team trends sections that certain teams are consistently doing well or poorly or are going Over or Under regularly, you’re right. Here are some overall primetime game trends that you’re going to want to consider:

Bad PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trends
Tampa Bay 10-19 SU and 8-21 ATS in the last 29
Washington 12-22 and 11-22-1 ATS in primetime since 2013
Trend Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY (-3 vs. WAS), WASHINGTON (+3 at TB) 

UNDER the total PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trends
LA Rams 15-6 Under surge
Minnesota 24-12 Under primetime record since 2015
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): MIN-LAR (o/u at 47.5)

NFL Streaks Provide Some Advantages for Bettors

The following betting systems were part of an article released in Week 8 of the 2023 NFL season focusing on winning and losing streaks. There were 15 different systems cited. These listed are the ones that have qualifying plays for this week’s action.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS THIS WEEK 

Handicapping NFL Rematch Games

The following trends and betting systems come from same-season rematch data over the last 13 seasons

Worst NFL rematch teams lately
–  Minnesota current 7-13 SU and 6-14 ATS slide
–  Philadelphia: just 7-12 SU and 5-13-1 ATS in the last 19 rematch games
Trends Match (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-4.5 vs. GB), MINNESOTA (-1.5 at LAR)

Worst NFL HOME rematch teams lately
– Baltimore: 8-21 ATS in the last 29 rematch home games
Trend Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (-10 vs. PIT) 

Worst NFL REVENGE teams lately
–  Green Bay: 4-9 SU and 4-8-1 ATS in the last 13 revenge attempts
Trend Match (FADE): GREEN BAY (+4.5 at PHI) 

High-scoring rematch teams
–  Minnesota: Over in 13 of the last 17 rematch games
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-LAR (o/u at 46.5) 

Rematch Betting Systems

 Teams that lost the prior game to an opponent but now have a record 20% or better outright have gone 45-15 SU and 38-22 ATS (63.3%) in the rematch contest.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-1.5 at LAR)

Teams playing on the road in revenge mode and averaging 28.0 PPG or more offensively have gone 19-8 SU and 19-9 ATS (67.9%) in their last 28 revenge tries
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+3 at TB) 

Teams that lost the prior same-season game versus an opponent and were then favored in the playoff contest are just 7-10 SU and 5-12 ATS (29.4%) since 2017.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-1.5 at LAR)

This Week’s NFL Strength Ratings

The following NFL betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis). 

This week’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. HOUSTON +3 (+1.2)
2(tie). DENVER +8.5 (+0.1)
LA RAMS +1.5 (+0.1) 

This week’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TAMPA BAY -3 (+1.3)
2. BALTIMORE -9.5 (+0.9)
3. PHILADELPHIA -4.5 (+0.8) 

This week’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DENVER +8.5 (+2.3)
2. GREEN BAY +4.5 (+1.0)
3. LA RAMS +1.5 (+0.9)
4. PITTSBURGH +9.5 (+0.2) 

This week’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TAMPA BAY -3 (+1.2)
2. LA CHARGERS -3 (+0.1) 

This week’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GB-PHI OVER 45.5 (+2.1)
2. WAS-TB OVER 50.5 (+2.0)
3. PIT-BAL OVER 43.5 (+1.5)
4. DEN-BUF OVER 46.5 (+1.2) 

This week’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: MIN-LAR UNDER 47.5 (-1.3) 

This week’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. HOUSTON +3 (+3.5)
2. LA RAMS +1.5 (+2.2)
3. PITTSBURGH +9.5 (+2.0)
4. DENVER +8.5 (+0.9)
5. GREEN BAY +4.5 (+0.8) 

This week’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: TAMPA BAY -3 (+0.5)

This week’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1(tie). GB-PHI OVER 45.5 (+2.6)
WAS-TB OVER 50.5 (+2.6)
3. DEN-BUF OVER 46.5 (+2.3)
4. PIT-BAL OVER 43.5 (+1.8)
5. LAC-HOU OVER 42.5 (+1.2) 

This week’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: MIN-LAR UNDER 47.5 (-1.0) 

These are the top head-to-head series trends between teams from recent years’ action: 

(375) LA CHARGERS at (376) HOUSTON
* Over the total is 4-1 in the last five meetings between LAC and HOU at Houston
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(377) PITTSBURGH at (378) BALTIMORE
* Underdogs are on extended run of 15-3-1 ATS in the last 19 games between PIT and BAL
Trend Match: PLAY PITTSBURGH ATS

* Under the total is 8-1 in the last nine of the PIT-BAL divisional rivalry, but the total did go over last time
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total 

(379) DENVER at (380) BUFFALO
* BUFFALO is 7-1 ATS versus Denver since 2007 but did lose SU and ATS last year
Trend Match: PLAY BUFFALO ATS 

(381) GREEN BAY at (382) PHILADELPHIA
* Favorites have won three straight ATS in the GB-PHI series
Trend Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA ATS 

(383) WASHINGTON at (384) TAMPA BAY
* Underdogs are 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine of the WAS-TB series
Trend Match: PLAY WASHINGTON ATS 

(385) MINNESOTA at (386) LA RAMS
* Over the total is 9-1 in the Vikings-Rams series since 1992 when Minnesota is on the road
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total

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