The following NFL betting trends a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NFL Playoffs Wild Card games. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFL board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NFL betting trends and systems for this week’s NFL games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* #3 seeds that were an underdog or less than a 3.5-point favorite are just 2-15 SU and ATS (12.5%) since 2004, scoring just 17.4 PPG in the process.
Trend Match (FADE): JACKSONVILLE (+1.5 vs BUF) 

* Of the last 43 Wild Card games with totals of 44 or higher, Under the total is 32-15-1 (68.1%). This includes a perfect 5-0 record in 2025. Trend Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): LAR-CAR, GB-CHI, BUF-JAX, SF-PHI, LAC-NE 

* LA Rams: 11-5 SU and 15-1 ATS in the last 16 road rematch games
Trend Match (PLAY): LA RAMS (-10.5 at CAR) 

* NFL teams that lost, scored 7 points or fewer, and had 10 or fewer first downs in a game have performed admirably as underdogs in the next contest, 23-42 SU but 42-23 ATS (64.6%) over the last decade-plus.
System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (+5.5 at PHI)

* NEW ENGLAND is 35-7 SU and 31-11 ATS when riding a three-game or more outright winning streak since 2016
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ENGLAND (-3.5 vs LAC) 

* Home teams gaining less than 6.5 yards per pass attempt have found the playoffs tough, as they are just 21-26 SU and 15-30-2 ATS (33.3%) since 2002.
System Match (FADE): CAROLINA (+10.5 vs LAR) 

#1 TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the MAKINEN BETTORS RATINGS: HOU-PIT OVER 38.5 (projections have total at 42)

General Wild Card Playoff ATS Trends

· The outright winner owns a point spread record of 69-10-1 ATS (87.3%) in the last 80 Wild Card playoff games! Win-no covers are somewhat rare, so regardless of the point spread, if you can’t see the team you’re betting on winning the game, you’re better off not trying to sneak a cover in. It should be noted, however, that since the expansion of the Wild Card playoffs in 2021, the outright winner in games with lines of 7 points or more has gone just 8-4 ATS (66.7%). 

· Home teams seem to have definitively regained the edge in this round in recent years, particularly on point spreads, going 19-5 SU and 16-8 ATS (66.7%) over the last four seasons.
Trend Matches (PLAY ALL): CAROLINA, CHICAGO, JACKSONVILLE, PHILADELPHIA, NEW ENGLAND, PITTSBURGH 

· Underdogs are on a run of 19-9-1 ATS (67.9%) in the last 29 NFC Wild Card games.
Trend Matches (PLAY ALL): CAROLINA, CHICAGO, SAN FRANCISCO

· Wild Card road favorites have become increasingly common in recent playoff seasons, as there have been 22 since 2008. Those teams are 12-10 SU but 8-13-1 ATS (38.1%).
Trend Matches (FADE ALL): LA RAMS, GREEN BAY, BUFFALO, HOUSTON 

· In the last 39 Saturday games, home teams are 26-13 SU and 25-13-1 ATS (65.8%). In that same span, home teams are 20-22 SU and 15-26-1 ATS (36.6%) on Sundays. If you’re curious, in the four prior Monday night games, hosts are 4-1 SU and ATS since that tradition began in 2022.
Trend Matches: PLAY – CAROLINA, CHICAGO, PITTSBURGH
FADE – JACKSONVILLE, PHILADELPHIA, NEW ENGLAND 

· Including the lone road outright win last year, Sunday NFC road teams have been terrific, going 16-11 SU and 19-7-1 ATS (73.1%) in the last 27. Under the total is also 20-7 (74.1%) in those games.
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (+5.5 at PHI)
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SF-PHI (o/u at 44.5)

Wild Card Trends by Seed Number

· Nothing else considered, in blanket wagering, the #4 AFC seed has been the best home betting option of the four choices, going 13-7 SU and 14-6 ATS (70%) over the last 20 seasons.
Trend Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (+3 vs HOU) 

· Dating back to 2013, and after a pair of Unders on totals a year ago, that option on totals in the #3-#6 matchup is 20-5-1 (80%). For the record, the road teams are on a 15-9 SU and 18-6 ATS (75%) surge in the series as well.
Trend Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): BUF-JAX (o/u at 51.5), SF-PHI (o/u at 44.5)
Trend Match (PLAY ALL): BUFFALO (-1.5 at JAX), SAN FRANCISCO (+5.5 at PHI) 

· #3 seeds that were an underdog or less than a 3.5-point favorite are just 2-15 SU and ATS (12.5%) since ‘04, scoring just 17.4 PPG in the process.
Trend Match (FADE): JACKSONVILLE (+1.5 vs BUF) 

· In the five expanded playoff seasons, we’ve only seen the #7 seed win outright once, that being in 2024 in Green Bay’s upset of Dallas. Overall, the #2 seeds are 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS (70%) in the matchup.
Trend Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO (+1.5 vs GB), NEW ENGLAND (-3.5 vs LAC)

Wild Card Trends Regarding Totals

· The common pattern in the last 14 years has shown that when road teams have won outright, Under the total has a record of 24-8-2 (75%)! Home teams scored just 16.4 PPG in those road wins. 

· Of the last 43 Wild Card games with totals of 44 or higher, Under the total is 32-15-1 (68.1%). This includes a perfect 5-0 record in 2025.
Trend Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): LAR-CAR, GB-CHI, BUF-JAX, SF-PHI, LAC-NE 

· Eight of the last 11 Wild Card games with closing totals of 40 or below went Over the total.
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): HOU-PIT (o/u at 38.5) 

· Of the last 42 Sunday Wild Card games, 29 have gone Under the total (69%). Of the last 37 Saturday games, Over the total is 20-16-1 (55.6%). The prior MNF playoff contests went 4-1 Under the total (80%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – LAR-CAR, GB-CHI
UNDER – BUF-JAX, SF-PHI, LAC-NE, HOU-PIT 

· In Wild Card games expected to be tight, or with lines in the +3 to -3 range for home teams, Under the total is on a run of 22-11-1 (66.7%).
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): GB-CHI, BUF-JAX, HOU-PIT

· Recent Wild Card games not expected to be as competitive, or those with lines of -7 or higher, have gone 8-4 Over in the last 12.
System Match (PLAY OVER): LAR-CAR (o/u at 46.5)

Line Range/Matchup Betting Systems

– Home underdogs in NFL playoff games are currently on a 9-4 SU and 11-2 ATS run heading into the 2026 postseason. This trend dates back to 2016 and includes a 3-0 mark last season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CAROLINA, CHICAGO, JACKSONVILLE, PITTSBURGH 

– In the last 28 NFL playoff games matching divisional opponents, home teams have gone 16-12 SU but just 11-17 ATS (39.3%). This trend dates back to 2003.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+1.5 vs GB) 

– There have been 34 NFL playoff games since 2003 in which the road team won more games in the regular season. These visitors are just 14-20 SU and 11-22-1 ATS (33.3%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA RAMS, SAN FRANCISCO, HOUSTON 

– Home teams that won 1 or 2 games more in the regular season than their visiting opponent but are favored by 3-points or fewer (or are underdogs) have been very vulnerable, going 13-20 SU and 12-21 ATS (36.4%) in their last 33 playoff tries.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO (+1.5 vs GB), JACKSONVILLE (+1.5 vs BUF)

Team Statistical Betting Systems

– Home teams scoring less than 22.5 PPG have actually fared well in the NFL playoffs recently, going 16-5 SU and 15-5-1 ATS (75%) since 2009.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CAROLINA (+10.5 vs LAR), PHILADELPHIA (-5.5 vs SF) 

– Road teams scoring less than 22.5 PPG have struggled terribly in the NFL playoffs, going 8-27 SU and 11-24 ATS (31.4%) since 2009.
System Match (FADE): LA CHARGERS (+3.5 at NE) 

– Home teams gaining less than 6.5 yards per pass attempt have found the playoffs tough, as they are just 21-26 SU and 15-30-2 ATS (33.3%) since 2002.
System Match (FADE): CAROLINA (+10.5 vs LAR) 

– Road teams averaging 7.5 or more yards per pass attempt have been dangerous in playoffs, going 30-36 SU but 41-23-2 ATS (64.1%) since 2004.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA RAMS, GREEN BAY, BUFFALO, SAN FRANCISCO 

– Home teams allowing more than 7.0 yards per pass attempt have been quite unreliable for bettors in the postseason, going 12-11 SU but 7-15-1 ATS (31.8%) since 2012.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+1.5 vs GB) 

– Road teams allowing 5.9 or fewer yards per pass attempt have also been solid bets in the playoffs, going 25-26 SU but 32-18-1 ATS (64%) since 2002.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BUFFALO (-1.5 at JAX), HOUSTON (-3 at PIT) 

– Road teams that avoid turnovers (<=1.0 giveaways per game) have surprisingly not fared well in the playoffs of late, going 4-23 SU and 9-18 ATS (33.3%) since 2004.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON, GREEN BAY, LA RAMS

– Road teams outscoring their home opponent offensively by 5.0+ PPG have really struggled in the NFL playoffs of late, 3-13 SU and 4-11-1 ATS (26.7%) since 2004. This lost again in the AFC title game last year with Buffalo.
System Match (FADE): LA RAMS (-10.5 at CAR)

First-Time Playoff Quarterbacks

– Quarterbacks starting their first playoff game in the NFL have gone just 13-25 SU and 15-23 ATS (39.5%) since 2014, and 28-49 ATS (36.4%) since 2003
System Matches (FADE ALL): CAROLINA, CHICAGO, NEW ENGLAND 

– Quarterbacks starting their first playoff game in the NFL and playing as an underdog are 10-27 SU and 14-22-1 ATS (38.9%) since 2006.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CAROLINA (+10.5 vs LAR), CHICAGO (+1.5 vs BUF) 

– Quarterbacks in their first playoff game are just 21-46 SU and 23-43-1 ATS (34.8%) since ’04 when matched up against an opposing QB not in their first playoff game.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CAROLINA, CHICAGO, NEW ENGLAND

First-Time Head Coaches

– Regarding coaches, first-time playoff coaches have been wildly more successful in recent years than quarterbacks, and are currently on a 10-6 SU and ATS (62.5%) run over the last seven seasons when not matched up against another rookie head coach.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO (+1.5 vs GB), JACKSONVILLE (+1.5 vs BUF)

Playoff Drought Systems

• Teams playing in their first playoff game in at least two seasons against a repeat playoff team from the prior season are just 14-31 SU and 17-28 ATS (37.8%) over the last 13 seasons and 29-49-1 ATS (37.2%) since 2004.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CAROLINA, CHICAGO, JACKSONVILLE, SAN FRANCISCO, NEW ENGLAND 

• On the road these “drought” teams are an ugly 10-33 SU and 13-29-1 ATS (33.3%) since 2007, ALL WILDCARD GAMES.
System Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (+5.5 at PHI)

Rematch Playoff Systems

– Teams that lost the prior same-season game versus an opponent and were then favored in the playoff contest are just 9-11 SU and 7-13 ATS (35%) since 2017.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA RAMS (-10.5 at CAR), GREEN BAY (-1.5 at CHI) 

These are some of the top situational NFL betting trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action: 

(375) LA RAMS (12-5) at (376) CAROLINA (8-9)
* LA RAMS are 17-8 SU and 18-6 ATS when playing on short rest (<7 days) since 2018
* CAROLINA is on a 4-18 SU and 7-15 ATS slide vs. elite teams with PPG differentials >=+4.5
* CAROLINA is 23-32 ATS (41.8%) at home since 2019
* CAROLINA is 24-35 ATS (40.7%) in non-divisional conference games since 2018
Trends Match (PLAY): LA RAMS (-10.5 at CAR)

* LA RAMS’ Matthew Stafford is 23-12 Over the total with his team playing on short rest (<7 days) since 2012
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LAR-CAR (o/u at 46.5) 

(377) GREEN BAY (9-7) at (378) CHICAGO (11-6)
* GREEN BAY is 25-16-1 ATS (61%) vs. divisional opponents since 2019
* GREEN BAY’s Matt Lafleur is 25-17-1 SU but 16-27 ATS as a single-digit favorite since 2021
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of GREEN BAY (-1.5 at CHI)

* CHICAGO is 26-37-1 ATS (41.3%) when coming off a SU loss since 2019
* CHICAGO is 34-46-1 ATS (42.5%) as an underdog since 2019
* CHICAGO is 11-28 SU and 13-26 ATS versus divisional opponents since 2019
Trends Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+1.5 vs GB)

* GREEN BAY is 29-12 Over the total as a road favorite since 2015
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): GB-CHI (o/u at 44.5) 

(379) BUFFALO (12-5) at (380) JACKSONVILLE (13-4)
* BUFFALO is 43-32 ATS (57.3%) in non-divisional conference games since 2017
* BUFFALO is 34-28 ATS (54.8%) in road/neutral games since 2019
* BUFFALO’s Sean McDermott boasts a 16-3 SU and ATS record as a short favorite of less than 3 points since 2017
Trends Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (-1.5 at JAX)

* BUFFALO’s Josh Allen is 39-24 Under the total on the road since 2018
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BUF-JAX (o/u at 51.5) 

(381) SAN FRANCISCO (12-5) at (382) PHILADELPHIA (11-6)
* SAN FRANCISCO’s Brock Purdy is just 13-8 SU but 9-12 ATS in the last 21 vs. teams with lesser records
Trend Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (+5.5 at PHI)

* PHILADELPHIA is 15-20 SU and 9-24 ATS when coming off a divisional loss since 2012
* PHILADELPHIA’s Nick Sirianni boasts a 26-5 SU and 20-10 ATS record as a single-digit home favorite since 2021
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of PHILADELPHIA (-5.5 vs SF)

* PHILADELPHIA is 20-6 Under the total in January games since 2011
* SAN FRANCISCO’s Kyle Shanahan is 28-17 Under the total as a single-digit underdog since 2017
* PHILADELPHIA’s Nick Sirianni is 14-4 Under the total in the last 18 games when coming off an outright loss
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): SF-PHI (o/u at 44.5) 

(383) LA CHARGERS (11-6) at (384) NEW ENGLAND (14-3)
* LA CHARGERS’ Justin Herbert is 10-1 SU and 9-1-1 ATS with his team coming off a double-digit loss since 2021
Trend Match (PLAY): LA CHARGERS (+3.5 at NE)

* NEW ENGLAND is 35-7 SU and 31-11 ATS when riding a 3-game or more outright winning streak since 2016
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ENGLAND (-3.5 vs LAC)

* LA CHARGERS are on 31-15 Under the total surge in Sunday games
* LA CHARGERS are on 18-7 Under the total streak when playing on normal rest (7 days)
* LA CHARGERS Jim Harbaugh is on 12-2 Under the total surge vs. elite defenses allowing <19 PPG
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): LAC-NE (o/u at 46.5)

(385) HOUSTON (12-5) at (386) PITTSBURGH (10-7)
* PITTSBURGH is 19-14 SU and 20-12-1 ATS vs. teams with better records since 2013
* PITTSBURGH’s Mike Tomlin is on a 35-28 SU and 41-19-1 ATS run as a single-digit underdog
Trends Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (+3 vs HOU)

* HOUSTON’s DeMeco Ryans is on 20-6 Under the total surge vs. teams with a winning record
* HOUSTON’s CJ Stroud is 18-12 Under the total in the last 30 games with his team coming off a win
* PITTSBURGH’s Aaron Rodgers is 14-2 Over the total in January games since 2017
* PITTSBURGH’s Aaron Rodgers is 16-7 Under the total vs. teams with a better record since 2014
* PITTSBURGH is 109-79 Under the total (58%) since 2015
Trends Match: 4 PLAYS UNDER, 1 PLAY OVER in HOU-PIT (o/u at 38.5)

NFL Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NFL games and detail the results of the follow-up game for these teams.

DON’T DISMISS TEAMS OFF DREADFUL OFFENSIVE OUTINGS
NFL teams that lost, scored 7 points or fewer, and had 10 or less first downs in a game have performed admirably as underdogs in the next contest, 23-42 SU but 42-23 ATS (64.6%) over the last decade-plus.
System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (+5.5 at PHI)

NFL Streaks Provide Some Advantages for Bettors

The following betting systems focus on winning and losing streaks. Below are the ones that have qualifying plays for this week’s action. 

NFL Streaks Betting System #2: NFL teams that have won their last three games outright, with the first being in upset fashion, then being favored in the latter games, are 93-22 SU and 73-42 ATS (63.5%) in the follow-up game when favored by 3 points or more.
System Match (PLAY): NEW ENGLAND (-3.5 vs LAC)

Handicapping NFL Rematch Games

The following trends and betting systems come from same-season rematch data over the last 14 seasons 

Worst NFL rematch teams lately
–  Carolina: 16-24 SU and 15-25 ATS in rematches since 2014
Trend Match (FADE): CAROLINA (+10.5 vs LAR)
–  Chicago: 6-16 ATS in the last 22
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+1.5 vs GB) 

Worst NFL home rematch teams lately
–   Carolina: 3-10 ATS in the last 13 at home
Trend Match (FADE): CAROLINA (+10.5 vs LAR)
–  Chicago: 2-13 SU and 4-11 ATS in the last 15 as host
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+1.5 vs GB) 

Best NFL road rematch teams lately
–   LA Rams: 11-5 SU and 15-1 ATS in the last 16 on the road
Trend Match (PLAY): LA RAMS (-10.5 at CAR)

Worst NFL revenge teams lately
–  Green Bay: 4-10 SU and 4-9-1 ATS in the last 14 revenge attempts
Trend Match (FADE): GREEN BAY (-1.5 at CHI) 

Worst NFL teams in rematches after winning the last game lately
–  Carolina: 5-12 ATS in the last 17 after beating opponent in the initial outing
Trend Match (FADE): CAROLINA (+10.5 vs LAR)

Rematch Betting Systems
Teams that lost the prior game to an opponent but now have a record 20% or better outright have gone 48-17 SU and 41-24 ATS (63.1%) in the rematch contest
System Match (PLAY): LA RAMS (-10.5 at CAR)
Teams playing on the road in revenge mode and averaging 28.0 PPG or more offensively have gone 22-9 SU and 22-10 ATS (68.8%) in their last 32 revenge tries
System Match (PLAY): LA RAMS (-10.5 at CAR)

NFL Rookie/Retread Coaching Systems

This material is from the VSiN piece entitled Analyzing the New NFL Head Coaches for 2025 detailing systems that apply to rookie coaches Ben Johnson (Chicago) and Liam Coen (Jacksonville), as well as re-tread coach Mike Vrabel (New England). 

Rookie Coach System
Since 2015, rookie head coaches in divisional games: 125-141-4 ATS (47%)
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+1.5 vs GB) 

Retread Coach Systems
Retread head coaches have been brutal bets as favorites, going 101-69 SU but just 67-93-11 ATS, for 41.9%!
System Match (FADE): NEW ENGLAND (-3.5 vs LAC)

Since 2015, when coming off a win or tie, these coaches have posted a modest 88-81 ATS (52.1%) record in their first seasons, including 38-28 ATS (57.6%) since mid-2022.
System Match (PLAY): NEW ENGLAND (-3.5 vs LAC) 

NFL Veteran Quarterback Leading New Team Systems

These systems take into account veteran quarterback records in their first season with a new team. They include game logs of 32 different veteran QBs since 2004 who have played at least eight years in the NFL and started extensively on a previous team. This year, the only veteran QB in the playoffs who found himself in a new place was Aaron Rodgers (Pittsburgh). 

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #3 – Veteran quarterbacks are a solid bet in the postseason
In their last 13 playoff games, the veteran quarterbacks in new places are 9-4 SU and 8-5 ATS (66.7%).
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (+3 vs HOU) 

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #4 – Non-Sunday games have been a struggle for veteran QBs with their new teams
Veteran quarterbacks have struggled under the spotlight of non-Sunday games lately, going 29-45 SU and 30-43-1 ATS (41.1%) in their last 74 such tries for their new teams. Moreover, they are 12-22-1 ATS (35.3%) in their last 35 Monday Night contests.
System Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (+3 vs HOU) 

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Veteran quarterbacks thrive with their new teams at home
 The results since 2005 of veteran quarterbacks playing with their new teams at home are quite impressive, as they have gone 133-99 SU and 120-101-11 ATS (54.3%).
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (+3 vs HOU) 

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #6 – By type of opponent, non-divisional conference matchups have been best for veteran starting quarterbacks in their first season with new teams
Since 2005, veteran QBs in their first season with new teams have fared well against non-divisional conference opponents, going 90-84 SU and 95-77-2 ATS (55.2%).
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (+3 vs HOU) 

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #8 –Veteran QBs have shown an inability to string win streaks together recently
In their last 70 starts with their new teams coming off outright victories, new incoming veteran QBs have gone just 32-38 SU and 26-43-1 ATS (37.7%). This trend dates back to 2021.
System Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (+3 vs HOU) 

Strategies Using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on theVSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published in the 2025 NFL Betting Guide, Steve Makinen outlined 12 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of Thursday at 4:00 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage. 

Here is a quick tabulation on how DK bettors performed in the 2024 season:

– Majority handle on point spreads: 141-131 ATS (51.8%)
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 140-130 ATS (51.9%)
– Majority handle on totals: 143-133 (51.8%)
– Majority number of bets on totals: 147-131 (52.9%) 

These are very good wrap-up numbers by the standards that have been established in most of the similar reports I have done for other sports. Considering NFL betting is king, it’s nice to see recreational bettors like those at DraftKings holding their own. With that in mind, here are the systems with updated language and records heading into the 2025 season.

NFL DK Betting Splits system #2: In NFL divisional games of 2022-24, DK majority handle bettors have been awful, as this majority group is just 117-148 ATS (44.2%). With the obvious generality that public bettors love favorites, it’s clear that they don’t value the stakes of these rivalry games and what they mean for the competitors.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2 above, in that same time span, when the majority number of bets staked its side in an NFL divisional game, this majority group is just 118-150 ATS (44%).
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #5: Since the start of the 2023 season, when the majority number of bets have backed road favorites for an ATS wager, these majority groups are actually 100-87 ATS (53.5%). I will tell you that there are only 15 games or fewer each year when this group will actually back the home dog. Watch this one closely, as backing road favorites in the NFL consistently has never been a consistent winning strategy.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): HOUSTON  

NFL DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle and number of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games over the last two seasons, these majority groups are just 100-114 ATS (46.7%) and 101-111 ATS (47.6%), respectively. This set of games includes all the Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests. These numbers were improved along with the overall majority figures last year but I wouldn’t expect that to continue.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO, NEW ENGLAND, HOUSTON 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #8: In another rare winning record, when the majority number of bets has backed the team with fewer season wins in a 2023 or 2024 NFL game for an ATS wager, this majority group was 46-38 ATS (54.8%). This has proven to be a situation in which going against the grain pays off.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): CAROLINA

DK Betting Splits system #9: The average NFL total in 2023 was 43.0. Last year it ballooned back up to 44.6. In games where the totals reached 46.5 or higher and oddsmakers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, majority number of bettors have gauged these games incredibly well the last two years, going 96-72 ATS (60.8%)! We’ll see how that trend holds in 2025.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – LAR-CAR, BUF-JAX
UNDER – LAC-NE 

This Week’s NFL Strength Ratings

The following NFL betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

This week’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. JACKSONVILLE +1.5 (+4.4)
2. SAN FRANCISCO +5.5 (+2.4)
3. CHICAGO +1.5 (+1.7)
4. CAROLINA +10.5 (+1.5)
5. PITTSBURGH +3 (+1.4) 

This week’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: NEW ENGLAND -3.5 (+3.1) 

This week’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. JACKSONVILLE +1.5 (+2.9)
2(tie). CHICAGO +1.5 (+1.9)
SAN FRANCISCO +5.5 (+1.9) 

This week’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA RAMS -10.5 (+1.4)
2. HOUSTON -3 (+0.4) 

This week’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOU-PIT OVER 38.5 (+3.2)
2. GB-CHI OVER 44.5 (+2.2)
3. BUF-JAX OVER 51.5 (+0.7)
4. SF-PHI OVER 44.5 (+0.1) 

This week’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAC-NE UNDER 46.5 (-0.5)
2. LAR-CAR UNDER 46.5 (-0.2) 

This week’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAN FRANCISCO +5.5 (+2.9)
2. CAROLINA +10.5 (+2.2)
3. CHICAGO +1.5 (+1.1)
4. PITTSBURGH +3 (+0.4) 

This week’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BUFFALO -1.5 (+1.4)
2. NEW ENGLAND -3.5 (+0.5) 

This week’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOU-PIT OVER 38.5 (+3.5)
2. SF-PHI OVER 44.5 (+1.7)
3. LAR-CAR OVER 46.5 (+0.4)
4. GB-CHI OVER 44.5 (+0.2)

This week’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BUF-JAX UNDER 51.5 (-1.1)
2. LAC-NE UNDER 46.5 (-0.5) 

These are the top head-to-head series NFL betting trends between teams from recent years’ action: 

(375) LA RAMS at (376) CAROLINA
* Home teams are 9-3-1 ATS in hte last 13 of the LAR-CAR series
Trend Match (PLAY): CAROLINA (+10.5 vs LAR) 

(377) GREEN BAY at (378) CHICAGO
* Favorites are 11-2 SU and 10-3 ATS in the last 13 of the GB-CHI divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): GREEN BAY (-1.5 at CHI) 

(379) BUFFALO at (380) JACKSONVILLE
* Under the total is 4-1 in the last five of the Bills-Jaguars series in Jacksonville
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BUF-JAX (o/u at 51.5) 

(381) SAN FRANCISCO at (382) PHILADELPHIA
* Favorites are 6-1 SU and ATS in the last seven of the SF-PHI series at Lincoln Financial Field
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-5.5 vs SF) 

(383) LA CHARGERS at (384) NEW ENGLAND
* Favorites are 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in the last seven of the Chargers-Patriots  series in New England
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ENGLAND (-3.5 vs LAC) 

(385) HOUSTON at (386) PITTSBURGH
* Home teams are 5-1 SU and ATS in the last six of the HOU-PIT set
Trend Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (+3 vs HOU)

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