NFL Top Ten Preseason Betting Concepts to Consider for 2026:
Betting the preseason is an altogether different challenge than the regular season. The goals teams share in these contests are never the same. In any given exhibition tilt, one team may be playing to win and build momentum, while the other may simply be hoping to get through unscathed. If you go through recent game logs, you’ll even see that certain coaches seem to believe in different strategies for playing in the preseason. Nevertheless, in any grouping of games that provides enough data, I can pull out worthwhile nuggets that bettors can use to their advantage.
Using some foundational principles as the basis for them, take a look at 10 different betting concepts I was able to uncover after analyzing my preseason database from over the last decade or so.
Before digging in too deep, however, it should be noted that last year was a much different NFL exhibition season in terms of betting trends when compared to the prior season. In 2024, underdogs were 25-23-1 SU and 32-17 ATS and Unders on totals were 31-18. Last year, the ledger was split fairly evenly 25-24 ATS edge for dogs, while Over on totals this time held a 31-18 edge. If you caught the Hall of Fame Game last Thursday, note that the favorite won and covered that game, and we saw another high-scoring affair, 33-30. The explosive scoring numbers of 2025 were highly unusual. We’ll see if that continues, and that will be one of the more interesting things to follow over the next few weeks.
All of these angles will be tracked and qualified on a week-to-week basis this NFL preseason in our upcoming VSiN NFL Preseason Analytics reports, the first of which will be out Wednesday evening to cover the full slate of games this weekend. In the reports, we essentially tell you which teams apply for each system that week.
1. Line ranges have proven very telling
Oddsmakers have essentially led bettors to water in the preseason, although it is easy to see how these prices can seem tricky to bettors. Since 2010, there have been 18 teams that have been favored by more than 7-points. Only eleven of these heavy favorites won their games outright, and they were just 6-12 ATS (33.3%). At the same time, favorites in the “sweet spot” range of -3.5 to -7 have been quite reliable, going 161-136-4 ATS for 54.2%. Most games, however, tend to land in the -1 to -3 range, and those contests are where the underdogs thrive. Since 2015, underdogs in the +1 to +3 range own a highly profitable record of 190-128 ATS, good for 59.7%! On that last angle, underdogs in 2024 went 10-10 ATS, less successful than usual, largely because the favorites in these games scored 22.5 PPG, a huge figure by any historical preseason standard.
2. Home field advantage usually means very little in tight-lined games
In looking at the home/road results of the last 14 NFL preseasons, there have been only four years where home teams finished with a record of better than .500 ATS. Last year was one of those, though hosts were just 25-23 ATS. If you’re simply guessing on these games, or wagering them for fun, side with the road teams, as the points given to hosts by oddsmakers for their “home field advantage” tend to tip the ATS ledger to the visitors. In fact, since 2011, road teams own a 418-378 ATS edge, good for 52.5%, and essentially enough to make a profit without any other handicapping considered. However, the absolute best time to back road teams is in spots where they are underdogs of 2.5 points or less, as they have gone 84-43 ATS as such since 2015, good for 66.1%! These road underdogs had another strong season in 2025, producing a 5-2 ATS record.
3. Big wins have a carryover effect
NFL teams coming off preseason wins of 20+ points and favored are on a 31-7 SU and 24-11-2 ATS (68.6%) surge since 2013. Most bettors tend to favor a yin-yang strategy in the preseason, assuming that the scales balance out, but in truth, big wins have provided big momentum for the next game as well. On cue, these teams enjoyed a 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS record last season.
4. Teams off double-digit losses are bad bets at home, good on road
Double-digit games are noteworthy as indicators of the potential performance of the losing team in the follow-up game. When these teams have played at home the following week, they have gone just 42-58 ATS (42%) since 2013. When they faced their next contest on the road, they have performed well, 61-43 ATS (58.7%) in that same time span, including 5-1 ATS last year. This 16%+ variance is something you are going to want to give consideration to in the final two weeks of this year’s preseason.
5. Teams that scored very well last game tend to come back down to earth
Offensive outbursts one week don’t tend to carry over to the next game in the preseason, as teams that scored 34 points or more in their previous exhibition game have gone just 17-18 SU and 15-19-1 ATS (44.1%) since 2015. Only two of these 35 teams reached 30 again as well.
6. Fade home teams that had huge defensive efforts last time out
Teams playing at home after allowing 7 points or fewer in their previous preseason game are just 23-30-1 SU and 21-31-2 ATS (40.4%) since ’10. Their average points allowed in the follow-up contest balloons to 19.6 PPG, a total that exceeds usual preseason standards by about 0.5 PPG.
7. “37” is a magic number for totals
Since 2010 in the NFL preseason, the number 37 has proven to be quite the benchmark in terms of totals. Totals less than 37 have gone Over at a rate of 57.2% (317-237), and were 14-8 Over in last year’s very high-scoring 2025 preseason. Those closing totals of 37 or higher have gone Under at a 56.4% clip (565-436). However, they were 17-10 Over last year. It’s hard to imagine another explosive preseason like we witnessed last year, regardless of how the HOF game went.
8. Teams that didn’t score well at all are good Over bets the next game
Struggling offenses tend to bounce back well in the next outing of the preseason, as teams that were held to fewer than 10 points in their previous preseason contest have gone 90-65-1 Over the total (58.1%) in the next game since 2010. These teams average 20 PPG in the next contest, while giving up 20.3. If you’re looking for a short-term ATS edge on these teams, they are also on a current 21-8 ATS (72.4%) surge heading into ’25.
9. Preseason games between conference opponents lean heavily Under
Interestingly, dating back to September ’15, preseason games between opponents from the same conference have trended heavily Under the total, going 67-44 Under (60.4%). Just eight of last year’s 49 games fell into this category, however. Furthermore, if you add the qualifiers from #7 above to that time span, preseason games between conference opponents with totals of 37 or higher have gone Under at a 54-25 rate (68.4%) since September 2015!
10. In the 2025 NFL Preseason, bettors were very sharp on totals but struggled on sides
Last year was the first time I really dug into studying line and total moves in the preseason. As it turns out, bettors at DraftKings were very sharp in betting totals, going 29-13 (69%) when moving opening totals in one direction or the other. It is assumed that when bettors move the total higher in the lead-up to a game, they are favoring the Over, and vice versa. However, when moving the point spread on sides in 2025, bettors struggled, going 19-26 ATS (42.2%), including 5-13 ATS (27.8%) on smaller leans, or point spread moves of 2 points or less. This will be something we will be tracking again in 2026.
Look for my next piece on NFL Team Preseason Tendencies tomorrow!
