NFL Week 1 Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Steve Makinen:
We open up another NFL season this weekend, and like you, I am as excited as ever for the betting possibilities. The VSiN Analytics Reports we have put together in recent years have really helped me stay sharp with my NFL wagering. In fact, two years ago, I had one of my best seasons ever, going 87-61-2 ATS, which is good for 58.8% and 19.9 units of profit. Last year, after an incredible Super Bowl performance in which I hit six of eight Best Bets, including two massive underdog wagers, I finished 94-87-3 for +0.52 units.
Keep in mind that in Weeks 8 and 9 of the 2024 season, I experienced the worst two-week stretch in my betting life, going 2-16 ATS. Without that skid, it would have been a phenomenal season of another almost 20 units of profit. Hoping to get off to a good start in 2025, here are my Week 1 Best Bets, with almost exclusive credit going to the aforementioned VSiN NFL Analytics Report. Quite honestly, I can’t live without it.
Thursday, September 4, 2025
Dallas (+8.5) at Philadelphia
The defending Super Bowl champions host the NFL season opener, as per tradition, and the Eagles welcome their hated rivals, the Cowboys, for what should be an intriguing contest. The game has a sizeable line attached to it considering the opponents. Sure, there was a seven-game difference between the teams last year, but so much of that could be attributed to the injury woes the Cowboys endured. It’s easy to forget a healthy Dallas team won 12 games in each of the three seasons before that. This year’s team does return QB Dak Prescott under center, but has moved on from former head coach Mike McCarthy in favor of Brian Schottenheimer. It would certainly give the Cowboys a lift to prove competitive in this contest, but it is never easy having to start at the home of the defending champs.
That said, the Eagles have some major concerns of their own if you ask me, led by not getting reps in the preseason under a new offensive coordinator. If you’re looking for analytics to back the Cowboys, remember that laying big points is rarely a good idea in a Week 1 NFL contest, as underdogs of 6.5 points or more might be just 11-32-1 SU, but they are 30-13-1 ATS. In addition, Dallas’ Dak Prescott is 30-5 SU and 27-8 ATS in divisional games since 2017. I expect him to be airing it early and often tonight, keeping his team competitive.
NFL Week 1 Best Bet: I’ll start the season with Dallas +8.5 in a divisional rivalry contest
Sunday, September 7, 2025
Carolina (+3.5) at Jacksonville
The Jaguars have a new head coach for 2025 in Liam Coen after going just 4-13 last season. However, there still seems to be an air of optimism surrounding this franchise as they bring back QB Trevor Lawrence and a host of talented young weapons at the skill positions. Could this optimism be a bit overstated? Jacksonville is far from a proven entity, being granted perhaps undeserved respect early after winning just four games a year ago. The Jaguars were just 2-7 in their final nine games.
The Panthers were 1-7 before rallying to a 5-12 finish, averaging 24.1 PPG in their final nine contests, so if there is any carryover momentum, it would have to belong to Carolina. They improved greatly in 2024, particularly late in the season. The Panthers were a different team towards the end of the season, when QB Bryce Young was finally finding his footing after a rough year-and-a-half to begin his career. Assumptions are dangerous in Week 1, and this is a line assuming home field means something and Carolina is still really bad. Taking teams that played well late, but their record didn’t show it, has been a reliable strategy.
NFL Week 1 Best Bet: I got Carolina +3.5 at Jacksonville
NY Giants (+6) at Washington
The Giants are hoping to improve over a rough 2024 season, turning to veteran QB Russell Wilson to try to right the ship. Quarterback was a major contributor to their lack of success, so adding a veteran should provide a boost. New York also added potential stars through the first round of this past April’s NFL draft. Washington unexpectedly reached the NFC Championship game a season ago in the first year under head coach Dan Quinn. There is some reason bettors could expect some natural regression after such a quick rise, but talented QB Jayden Daniels will certainly have something to say about that.
The Commanders will be looking for a better start than 2024, when they were whipped by the Bucs in Week 1, 37-20. Recall that divisional road underdogs of 6.5 points or less are on a 17-14 SU and 21-10-1 ATS (67.7%) run since 2013. With a fresh slate lined up and some new leaders in place, the G-men should be a difficult out for Washington, despite what would seem to be a lopsided offensive edge for the Commanders. Also important here, the Giants are 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS in their last seven visits to Washington.
NFL Week 1 Best Bet: Let’s go with NY Giants +6
Las Vegas (+2.5) at New England
If there is one team that hasn’t been good in recent years but is receiving a lot of love from oddsmakers and bettors alike, it would be New England. The respect could be valid, as folks seem to be excited about what new head coach Mike Vrabel will bring to the team, both in attitude and scheme. The Patriots also have an up-and-coming young quarterback in Drake Maye, who showed flashes of being elite in his rookie year in 2024.
However, in my opinion, much of the love that is going the Pats’ way could just as easily be directed at the Raiders, as they could be unrecognizable in 2025. The franchise has made key changes at all the key football positions, most notably head coach and quarterback. Ironically, those adds sort of came as a package, as new QB Geno Smith played for head coach Pete Carroll in Seattle. Carroll has been a proven winner, and Smith has been a prolific passer while playing for him. Oh, and by the way, Las Vegas also adds explosive running back Ashton Jeanty to the offensive mix while DE Maxx Crosby still anchors the defense. Don’t overlook this team, even in a tough AFC West.
NFL Week 1 Best Bet: I have my money on Las Vegas (+2.5) to start the Carroll era well
Arizona at New Orleans (+6.5)
There are some dangerous assumptions being made in this game in New Orleans on Sunday. First is that Arizona has somehow worked itself into a position of being a 6.5-point road favorite over anyone. This team scored only 23.5 PPG last year. Second, and the majority of the reason for the huge home dog line, is that the Saints are far and away the worst team in the NFL. Yes, I know, they were awful to end the season, but they have moved on with a new head coach in Kellen Moore, a guy who was arguably among the best offensive coordinators in the league in recent years. I talk about it all the time, but it bears repeating…so much can change for a team with a fresh slate.
That makes laying big points rarely a good idea in a Week 1 NFL contest, as underdogs of 6.5 points or more might be just 11-32-1 SU, but they are 30-13-1 ATS (69.8%) in Week 1 since 2013. Plus, Arizona is just 19-32 ATS (37.3%) as a favorite since 2016. They are not a team that embraces respect. If you need any other reason, consider the home field advantage recently in this series, as home teams are 8-1 ATS in the last nine ARI-NO head-to-head matchups. In predictable fashion, over 80% of the handle at DraftKings is backing the Cards here. I’ll take the other side most often.
NFL Week 1 Best Bet: I’ll go with the Saints (+6.5) to be more competitive than thought
Tampa Bay at Atlanta (+1.5)
It seems hard to believe, but Tampa Bay is now the four-time defending champion of the NFC South Division, and the Bucs will look for #5 in a row in 2025. They are led, of course, by QB Baker Mayfield, who has revived his career in his time in Tampa, consistently putting up big numbers with a core of great weapons to work with. Speaking of weapons, the arsenal in Atlanta isn’t so bad either, and new QB Michael Penix will have a ton of support as he takes over the full-time starting role. The Falcons were prolific during his three rookie starts, and they nearly rallied for a playoff berth. In my history of betting the NFL, high-scoring home underdogs are usually a great option. We’ll see if that plays out here in a key early divisional matchup.
As far as Week 1 numbers are concerned, divisional home underdogs are 18-10-2 SU and 24-6 ATS (80%) in Week 1 since 2009. In the last meeting between these teams, the Falcons edged the Bucs last year 31-26 in a late-October matchup in Tampa, so the defending division champs probably have had this game circled on their calendars for a while for payback. However, this system shows that it has not been a great motivator: Week 1 favorites playing in a revenge spot from a loss the prior season are just 18-24 SU and 16-26 ATS (38.1%) over the last 13 seasons. With Atlanta on a 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS run vs. Tampa, I’ll back the Falcons as home dogs.
NFL Week 1 Best Bet: Let’s go Atlanta +1.5 to pull the upset here
Houston (+3) at LA Rams
The Rams and Texans were both in the playoffs this past season. They return with even higher hopes for 2025. However, the Rams have some question marks right now, particularly at quarterback, where veteran Matthew Stafford has been battling back issues for much of the preseason. However, many experts think they are the best team in the NFC West if he is healthy. On the other hand, the Texans are healthy and an obvious favorite in the AFC South. They are led by now third-year QB C.J. Stroud and boast a ton of young, talented players on both sides of the ball. Having won playoff games in each of the last two years, they are looking to take another step forward this fall. A win over a quality NFC power would help that cause.
I did a little digging on tight point spread games recently, and I found that home teams priced in the range of +3 to -3 in Week 1 non-conference games have gone just 5-16 SU and 3-17-1 ATS since 2015. Bettors at DraftKings may be well aware of this angle after I published it in the VSiN NFL Betting Guide 2.0 a few weeks ago, as they are backing the Texans at a 56% handle rate. That is actually not a problem for me, as in NFL non-conference games of 2023 and 2024, DK majority number of bets groups were actually quite sharp, going 79-64 ATS (55.2%). In the end, the Texans will be more ready to go on Sunday.
NFL Week 1 Best Bet: I’ll take Houston +3 at LA
Baltimore at Buffalo (-1.5)
To be perfectly honest, there were only a few favorites I gave real consideration to this week, notably KC, CLE, GB, and this game. Considering the history of success by underdogs in Week 1 of any given NFL season, I settled on just offering this one as a Best Bet. Why? Well, a few reasons. First off, Buffalo seems finally due to take that elusive next step this season. A focused Bills team has had this game circled on the calendar as crucial. This particular system highlights the significance of home-field advantage in high-profile Week 1 matchups: Home favorites hosting teams that finished above .500 the previous season are 50-30-5 ATS (62.5%) since 2000.
Notably, this game is in Orchard Park, where home teams are 10-3 SU and 11-2 ATS in the BAL-BUF head-to-head series since 1999. Buffalo is a very small favorite, and is looking to extend a run of 4-0 SU and ATS for home teams in head-to-head play as well. The Bills won the most recent contest, 27-25 at home this past postseason, a margin that would be again good enough to cover this week’s point spread and give them another big win. And if you’re “leery” because this point spread is so small, consider that Buffalo’s Sean McDermott boasts a 15-3 SU and ATS record as a short favorite of less than 3 points since 2017.
NFL Week 1 Best Bet: Let’s go with Buffalo (-1.5) to start the season strong here
Monday, September 8, 2025
Minnesota at Chicago (total 43.5)
We have a very intriguing contest lined up for the first Monday Night Football game of the week, and anyone who has followed my picks recently knows that I typically start by trying to find reasons why MNF games won’t go Under. That has been the nature of the beast lately, as bettors typically flock to Overs in these games. Unders have been particularly prevalent on Monday nights with home dogs in place: NFL home underdogs on Monday Night are on a run of 14-17 SU and 17-13-1 ATS (56.7%) dating back to September 2021. The last 29 of these games have seen Under the total go 21-6-2 (77.8%) as well, games producing just 39.1 PPG.
More along those lines, consider the recent MNF totals’ results for these two teams: Chicago 10-3-1 Under in the last 14, Minnesota 14-2 Under in the last 16, including 9-1 on the road. In fact, the Vikings own a 25-12 Under mark in their last 37 primetime games overall. Now, when examining this particular matchup, one might expect a higher-scoring game, as both teams boast big weapons and both have head coaches known for their offensive prowess. That said, with QB Caleb Williams’ inconsistencies last year, and the Vikings now turning to rookie QB JJ McCarthy, do you think either team wants to see this game get into a shootout? I don’t, and for that reason, I expect a game played closer to the vest. Consider this about McCarthy: As part of their overall recent struggles, rookie quarterbacks have struggled for bettors as early-season starters, going 6-23-1 SU and 11-18-1 ATS (37.9%) in their last 21 Week 1-3 games. They are also on a 28-10 Under the total (73.7%) run in their last 38 such contests. One more nugget…in its last six games hosting Minnesota, Chicago has scored just 15.2 PPG.
NFL Week 1 Best Bet: I’ll go UNDER 43.5 in MIN-CHI to wrap up Week 1
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