NFL Week 1 Picks from Mike Somich:

I always find Week 1 to be one of the toughest betting weeks. These lines have been picked over for months; it’s almost like Saturday night in the normal weekly betting cycle. For example, we have already seen two moves in the Packers vs. Eagles game: The Eagles opened -1.5, the Pack took money, and now the Eagles have been bet out to -3.

Additionally, it’s hard not to double down on offseason opinions. A great example is the Week 1 clash between the Raiders and Chargers. I have an Over win total ticket on the Raiders and an Under win total ticket on the Chargers. This is clearly a high-leverage game for both totals, but I can catch +3.5 on the Raiders in the game that I have power rated at pick ’em. My numbers clearly say bet the Raiders plus the points and on the moneyline, but having a four-unit game in Week 1 is not exactly enticing.

 

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Teasers are also tough to be extremely confident in for Week 1. Last year, I wrote about a drastic change in the performance of teasers after Week 6 of the 2022 season. Logic stands up to the numbers as well. There is more variance early in the season since we do not have actual data on these teams. The likelihood that the market is wrong in Weeks 1-4 is much higher than in Weeks 8-11.

I do like to go after totals; one specifically has caught my eye.

Denver vs. Seattle (-6, 41.5)

I made this game quite a bit higher than the current number. Seattle will be better on the defensive side of the ball, but are we sure that will click in Week 1? Mike Macdonald’s scheme will likely take time to implement on the defensive side with new personnel. Denver looked better than expected in the preseason with Bo Nix at QB and should be willing to sling it around in this spot as dogs trying to keep up with Seattle’s offense.

Additionally, Seattle will have a very different look on offense this year. Out is the slow, run-happy Seahawks offense, and insert a 3-wide, throw-it-around-the-yard style of offense for new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, who came from the University of Washington. They have the weapons to be effective with Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the slot, and the rate of play will flip from the bottom of the league to the top half.

Neither of these teams possesses a prolific pass rush either, so both Nix and Smith should have time to throw.

NFL Week 1 Pick: Broncos/Seahawks Over 41.5

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