NFL Survivor Picks

Survive and advance.

Contestants playing in Survivor pools are going to play that mantra over and over in their heads, whether they’re saying it out loud to themselves, other people, or just simply thinking it.

 

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The concept behind a Survivor pool seems so simple. All you have to do is pick one team to win that week. But, once you pick that team, you can’t use them again. That’s where the hard part comes into play because you have to spend a lot of time thinking about going 1-0 for that week and also 18-0 for the season (or 20-0 if you are in Circa Survivor).

One of the entries I had with my partner Marc Goldberg (@FightOnSpooky on X, SpookyExpress.com) started 14-0 before we lost with the Titans in Week 15. We were down to the final 13 out of 9,267 entries, I believe. Hopefully we can replicate that run and then some.

I wrote about some NFL Contest Strategies in our “Updated” NFL Betting Guide and also wrote out a NFL Survivor Blueprint back around the time of the schedule release in May. Now, the games are here and some very tough decisions will need to be made.

Before I get into this week’s pick and the options under consideration, it is important to me to point out the format for the article. I will treat this weekly piece like a Survivor entry. The goal is to survive and advance, but if I survive with a team, I won’t use them again. If I get “eliminated” early, I’ll consider shuffling the selected teams back into the mix, but only if it makes sense. Contestants that make it deep into the season won’t have a lot of the good teams available and it is disingenuous and not helpful to pick them unless I haven’t used them yet, so I’ll try to keep in mind teams I would consider “widely available” for that week.

Also, our friends at PoolGenius have some very cool NFL Survivor and NFL Pick ‘Em tools to check out. I will be working those into the analysis this season as well. This was also an interesting article from PoolGenius regarding the Circa Survivor field and projecting pick popularity.

Alright, here we go. Good luck this season, y’all!

Week 1 NFL Survivor Teams to Consider

Buffalo Bills (-6.5) over Arizona Cardinals

The second-biggest favorite on the board has one of the league’s top quarterbacks and a renewed sense of purpose after coming up short in the playoffs at home against the eventual Super Bowl champs. Josh Allen has to develop some chemistry with a rebuilt collection of skill players, but full-time OC Joe Brady shot some life into the offense after Ken Dorsey was canned last season and that should give pickers some additional hope in the Bills.

The Cardinals are missing rookie Darius Robinson and emerging star BJ Ojulari, so the pass rush has taken a major hit for the season lid lifter. Allen with time to throw is a tough combination and the Bills should hold serve at home against the Cardinals.

This is also one of those games where the age-old dilemma of 1-0 vs. 18-0 comes into play. Take the Bills now or give yourself a great opportunity in Week 16 at home against New England? Week 7 against the Titans isn’t a bad spot either.

PoolGenius has this game at 68% for the Bills.

Seattle Seahawks (-6) over Denver Broncos

Defensive mastermind Mike Macdonald makes his head coaching debut against a rookie QB, as the Broncos head up to take on the Seahawks and a rowdy 12th Man with a new era of Seattle football underway. Bo Nix won the starting job for Sean Payton and he’ll get a reimagined and retooled defense hungry for a chance to be mentioned in the same breath as the old “Legion of Boom”.

First-year OC Ryan Grubb wants to rely on the run with Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet, but he did pretty well at the University of Washington with an accurate QB and a bevy of wide receiver weapons…which is what he has here with the Seahawks.

Again, all of the big favorites deserve consideration in Survivor contexts and this is one of them. Nix isn’t your typical rookie because he’s almost old enough to rent a car without an underage surcharge, but he is still a rookie and the Broncos kept it very simple for him in the preseason.

Something to consider is that this may very well be Seattle’s biggest favorite role, depending on where the Giants are as of Week 6. There may not be a better time to use them, though injuries definitely create in-season opportunities that we can’t see right now.

PoolGenius has the Seahawks as the second-likeliest winner at 70%.

New Orleans Saints (-3.5) over Carolina Panthers

Of the teams in the -3.5 range, which one would you be most confident in? Saints? Falcons? Bears? Buccaneers? Lions? Bettors have been grabbing the points with the Panthers throughout the week, but Carolina has a first-year head coach in Dave Canales and a second-year QB in Bryce Young that did not look the part last season.

Say what you will about Derek Carr, but this is as healthy as you are going to get him and he had a 25/8 TD/INT ratio last season with a 68.4% completion rate. I also think that the Saints have upgraded at offensive coordinator with Klint Kubiak over Pete Carmichael.

Something else to consider, given the magnitude of the Survivor sweat, is that the Panthers were among the worst First Touchdown Scorer teams in the NFL and the Buccaneers, under the guidance of then OC Dave Canales were right there with them. Ideally, your team plays from in front and the Saints seem well-positioned to do that.

Excluding injury, this is probably the peak favorite role for the Saints, so if you want to use them, this is theoretically the best time.

PoolGenius has the Saints at 61%, which ranks 10th in win probability this week.

NFL Week 1 Survivor Pick

Cincinnati Bengals (-8.5) over New England Patriots

Surprise! It’s the most popular pick on the board and one that could wipe out a large percentage of entries if an upset happens, but the Bengals are presumably the safest and smartest choice. Joe Burrow is fully healthy. Zac Taylor is going up against a rookie head coach who didn’t decide on his quarterback until a week and a half ago. Ja’Marr Chase seems like he’s ready to play.

There are a lot of takes out there about Taylor and Cincinnati’s Week 1 efforts of the past. Let’s go through them.

2023: 24-3 loss to Browns; Burrow with calf injury all preseason (didn’t play) and weather was horrendous

2022: 23-20 OT loss to Steelers; Bengals outgained Steelers 432-267, but finished -5 in TO margin as seven-point favorite

2021: 27-24 OT win over Vikings; Burrow first game after torn ACL/MCL

2020: 16-13 loss to Chargers; Burrow first NFL start

2019: 21-20 loss at Seahawks; team went 2-14 with Andy Dalton at QB; Seahawks went 11-5 and won a playoff game

Like I said, Burrow is healthy. Chase is healthy, though maybe not fully in shape. Jacoby Brissett may up the floor slightly for the Patriots, but Drake Maye creates the ceiling and he’ll be starting soon enough. New England is widely regarded as the worst team in the league and I see no reason to believe otherwise right now.

I guess it’s kind of the obvious choice, but we never take anything for granted in Survivor. It’s the Bengals for me in what is likely to be their biggest or second-biggest favorite role of the season (Raiders in Week 9). PoolGenius has the Bengals at 74%, the likeliest winner on the slate.

Survivor Pick: Bengals

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