NFL Week 10 best bets from the T Shoe Index


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NFL Week 10 Best Bets from the T Shoe Index

There have been a handful of teams jockeying back and forth for the No. 1 power ranking throughout the season, and each time I start to think a team is going to pull away from the pack, they lay an absolute egg (Hello, Bills, 49ers and Cowboys!). While I’m not betting the Browns this week, the Ravens have a ~3 point cushion as the current No. 1 in my TSI ratings, so be on alert for an egg from Baltimore this week, if they find themselves in a letdown spot after pummeling the Seahawks. 

The Bengals, who I had pretty much left for dead after a few weeks, have found rejuvenation with a healthy Joe Burrow and look back to Super Bowl form, although they are dealing with some WR injuries at the moment. The NFL QB carousel continues, making it all the more difficult to properly rate teams as injured QBs move in and out of lineups, but as always, we’ll do our best and rely on the numbers to lead us through murky waters. Here are this week’s best bets from the T Shoe Index.

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Los Angeles Chargers vs Detroit Lions (-3), O/U 48.5

The Lions have been a fantastic story over the last year and a half, and currently sit atop the NFC North in my power ratings by two full points over the recently-Kirk-Cousins-less Vikings; however, TSI indicates some value on the Chargers this week as underdogs. In fact, TSI projects the Chargers as 2.5 home favorites in this spot. The LA offense is a top 10 unit in my ratings, going up against a Lions defense that is merely middle of the pack in the NFL. While the Chargers defense has improved (relative term) to No. 20, they will be taking on a top 10 offense themselves. These teams are only power rated 0.4 points apart on a neutral field, so I’ll take the field goal at home with an offense that is more than capable of hanging in this game. 

Pick: Los Angeles Chargers +3 (Play to +2)

Cincinnati Bengals (-6) vs Houston Texans, O/U 47.5

I mentioned the Bengals’ recent surge, coinciding with the health of Joe Burrow’s calf, which has made the Cincinnati offense look like the offense we’ve come to know over the last couple years. On the other side, CJ Stroud is probably the story of the season so far, given the pre-draft criticism that has turned out to be silly, given his dominance, not just for a rookie, but for a NFL QB playing with a mediocre receiving corps and an injured offensive line all season. Despite the QBs being stars in this game, TSI tells us that this line is too high. We played the Bengals under last week and it cashed, and we’re back for more as I think oddsmakers may be overvaluing the scoring potential here just a bit. The Bengals have a top-10 defense, and even the Texans are an average defensive team, according to the numbers. TSI projects this game more about 44 points, so I’ll take the value and roll the dice on another Bengals under.

Pick: Under 47.5 (Play to 45.5)

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