Betting Splits and NFL Sharp Money Picks for Thursday Night Football: Panthers at Bears

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Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Thursday’s betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.

You can always track the latest odds and betting percentages using our VSiN Betting Splits.

In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Thursday Night Football.

 

8:15 p.m. ET: Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears (-3, 38.5)

The Panthers (1-7) just fell to the Colts 27-13, failing to cover as 1.5-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Bears (2-7) just lost to the Saints 24-17 but managed to cover as 9-point road dogs.

This line opened with Chicago listed as low as a 1.5-point home favorite. Currently 62% of bets and 62% of dollars are laying the points with the Bears. This combination of both Pro and Joe support has steamed Chicago up from -1.5 to -3. This line briefly touched as high as Bears -4 on the speculation that QB Justin Fields may return from injury and get the start under center. However, Fields has since been ruled out and backup Tyson Bagent is expected to start. As a result, we’ve seen Chicago fall back down to -3.5 or -3 depending on the book. 

Favorites have gone 70-61 ATS (53%) this season, with home favorites 42-35 ATS (55%). Thursday Night home favorite are 4-4 ATS this season but 86-71 ATS (55%) since 2005. Historically, short weeks have tended to help favorites, especially those who don’t have to travel. With the spread hovering around a key number and a hook, bettors would be wise to shop for the best line regardless of which team they prefer. If you like the Bears, make sure to shop for the -3. On the flip side, if you like the Panthers make sure you find the hook with the +3.5. 

Pros have also hit the under, dropping the total from 41.5 to 38.5. Currently 68% of bets and 77% of dollars are sweating the under, signaling a heavy combination of respected under action. Unders are 83-52 (62%) this season. A $100 bettor taking every under would be up roughly $2,600 at this point in the season. When the total falls at least a half point, the under is 56-32 (64%) this season and 225-163 (58%) since 2021. Primetime unders are 20-7 (74%) this season and 142-87 (62%) since 2019. When the total is less than 40 (low total unders), the under is 14-9 (61%) this season. The forecast calls for cloudy skies, high 40s and 7-10 MPH winds at Soldier Field. 

Neither of these offenses are lighting it up, as Chicago ranks 19th in scoring (20.9 PPG) and Carolina ranks 26th (17.5 PPG). 

One player prop to consider is Carolina QB Bryce Young over 213.5 (-115) passing yards. Young has gone over this number in three of his last four games, averaging 218 yards over that time span. The Bears rank 28th in pass defense, allowing 257 yards per game. With the Panthers listed as a road dog, they might be playing catch up or trailing late, which means more passing attempts and 4th quarter "garbage" yards for Young.