NFL Week 10:

We’re into double digits in the NFL, as Week 10 has arrived. Fourteen games are on the slate with four teams enjoying the one bye week that the season provides. We’ve also got another overseas game for an early start on Sunday with a game in Germany.

It is always interesting to see how the markets reacted to what happened in the games, especially when favorites went 13-1 SU and 10-4 ATS. Comparing the lookahead lines to the Sunday night numbers is a good way to start the week and also find if there are some games that you need to dig a little bit deeper into to see what took place. Injuries are always part of that equation as well, so let’s think about those and also the recent results to see how the lines shape up for Week 10.

 

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Here is the Week 10 NFL Odds Report:

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-6, 52.5)

Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Amazon)

We start with AFC North action, as the Bengals and Ravens both won in lopsided fashion during their Week 9 matchups. The spread on the game wasn’t really adjusted from the lookahead line, but the total sure was. This total is up in the low 50s after offensive explosions for both teams. The Ravens were stunningly efficient against a Broncos defense that had played really well up until that point. Cincinnati’s defense has had issues all season. Guess we’ll wait and see if the total goes up further this week. I do think the spread will mostly stay where it is, or possibly go up to 6.5 with a big coaching edge for the home team on a short week.

New York Giants (-4.5, 42.5) vs. Carolina Panthers (Germany)

Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET (NFL Network)

Daniel Jones and the Giants had a rough first half on Sunday. They eventually made it a game against the Commanders and lost 27-22, as Jones finished with 174 yards, but he had zero or negative passing yards throughout the first 30 minutes of action. The Panthers beat the Saints and did so with a historic performance.

I feel bad for the people of Munich that they’ll be subjected to this game. New York does have a decent defense, though, hence the 4.5-point spread in this neutral-site affair. The lookahead market got as high as 5.5 on this game last week. I’m not sure this line will move a ton, but it is a standalone game and that will increase the action on it.

Buffalo Bills (-5, 47) at Indianapolis Colts

1 p.m. ET (CBS)

The Bills needed a walk-off 61-yard field goal to beat the Dolphins after enduring all kinds of self-inflicted wounds throughout the game. The Colts played the Vikings on Sunday Night Football, so they got the standalone spotlight and teams like that are always going to be scrutinized a little more. Anecdotally, the Bills have to be in line for a flat effort, right? They just outlasted a division rival on the heels of playing four road games in five weeks. And now they’re on the road again in advance of facing the Chiefs next week. I think we may get some Colts support throughout the week.

Minnesota Vikings (-5, 47) at Jacksonville Jaguars

1 p.m. ET (FOX)

The lookahead markets had this game anywhere from -3 to -4.5 at open and more or less sat there. The Jaguars had an admirable comeback attempt against the Eagles when they looked dead and buried, so maybe that will give bettors a little bit of encouragement, but this is an objectively bad football team. This article was posted on Sunday night, but I certainly won’t be shocked to see that Doug Pederson was fired on Monday morning. If not this week, it’s coming.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Washington Commanders (-2.5, 45)

1 p.m. ET (CBS)

The Steelers were off while the Commanders were beating the Giants. It wasn’t a super impressive performance from Washington, but they did improve to 7-2. I think if you had told people before the season that the Steelers and Commanders would be leading their respective divisions going into Week 10, you would have been laughed at repeatedly. But, that’s where we are.

You could make a case that this is the best game of the week. What stands out the most to me is that the line more or less implies these teams are rated equally. Pittsburgh wins with defense. Washington wins with offense. Russell Wilson has played really well in his two starts with 542 passing yards. That’s about half of what Justin Fields has had in six starts. Maybe there is a new dimension to the Pittsburgh offense that we need to respect. Let’s see how much the market respects it.

Atlanta Falcons (-3, 48) at New Orleans Saints

1 p.m. ET (FOX)

Sunday was a bad day for the Saints. Not only did they lose, but Chris Olave suffered another concussion and former Saints WR Michael Thomas went off about the coach, organization, and QB Derek Carr on X. Dennis Allen has to be on borrowed time at this point and, like Pederson, I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s unemployed on Monday morning. The lookahead markets weren’t up to the full 3, but that’s where this game reopened and truth be told, I wouldn’t be surprised to see more 3.5s or maybe even 4s as we go forward.

New England Patriots at Chicago Bears (-7, 39.5)

1 p.m. ET (FOX)

The Bears failed to score a touchdown in Week 9 and had several major mental errors in the loss to the Cardinals. Matt Eberflus is another head coach on the hot seat. A disappointing performance against the outmanned Patriots would make things significantly worse. New England took the Titans to overtime with a touchdown as the clock hit 00:00, but came up short in the extra period. This is not a good team, but it is a feisty team and the defense is playing at a pretty high level.

Nothing changed with this line from where the lookaheads had it for the most part, except for DraftKings moving from 6.5 to 7. Ugly game, but good storylines with Drake Maye vs. Caleb Williams. I think this line comes down off of 7 at some point.

Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Chargers (-7.5, 38)

4:05 p.m. ET (FOX)

This line has increased from where it was in the lookahead markets and with good reason. The Chargers did have some issues against Cleveland, as the offensive line gave up six sacks and punted seven times, but the defense was suffocating for most of the day. Justin Herbert did come out of the game a little bit hobbled and had two explosive pass plays off of miscommunication, but you can see that LA is a well-coached team. Tennessee is not, as Brian Callahan keeps making errors with fourth-down situations and the defense has been going in reverse. After a mammoth week for favorites, this is a favorite that might grow in Week 10. DraftKings already has 8.5 as the high number in the market.

Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5, 44.5) at Dallas Cowboys

4:25 p.m. (FOX)

The cameras caught Dak Prescott saying “we f-ing suck” on the sidelines and he left the game with a hamstring injury, so all is not well in Dallas right now. This was a much smaller line going into last weekend and, to be honest, I don’t know that you’ll find anybody eager to back the Cowboys here. It is worth noting that 7was the high point in the market and that was at DK before they mirrored others at 6.5 or 6. Unless this line drops significantly, it will be the biggest home underdog role for Dallas against Philadelphia since Week 17 in 2013.

New York Jets at Arizona Cardinals (-1, 45.5)

4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)

The Cardinals are lined similar this week to what they were last week against the Bears. That was a flipped favorite situation off the lookahead line. This one is roughly about where it was lined, as Superbook here in Vegas did open it PK, but DraftKings was -1. The total has ticked up a bit, as the Jets finally showed some life offensively with Davante Adams and the Cardinals had over six yards per play against the Bears. I’ll be very interested in this line because the Jets defense has fallen off since Robert Saleh was fired. How will bettors grade this team this week?

Detroit Lions (-4.5, 48.5) at Houston Texans

8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)

The other team on the “half-bye” as I like to call it is the Texans, who lost to the Jets on Thursday Night Football in Week 9. The Lions looked great against the Packers in their first outdoor test of the season. They’re back inside here and Jared Goff is playing like a madman. CJ Stroud hasn’t been and is missing Stefon Diggs, though Nico Collins is eligible to return this week. Houston’s long injury list merits watching this week and will have an impact on where this line ultimately closes.

Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Rams (-2.5, 49.5)

8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)

It was an eventful Sunday for both of these teams. The Dolphins lost on a 61-yard field goal. The Rams won in overtime in a game where Puka Nacua was ejected for throwing a punch. The Dolphins had over six yards per play against the Bills. It was one of their better performances of the season in a lot of ways, but it ended with a loss. The Rams have won three in a row and Miami can’t win a close game. Let’s see where this number goes, as 2.5 is such an interesting starting point for every NFL game

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