NFL Week 10 opening line report



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Taking a look at the NFL Week 10 schedule

Only one game separates us from the second half of the NFL regular season and it is the Monday Night Football clash between the Chargers and Jets. My guy Zachary Cohen has a preview and prop bets for that one. The rest of the league and the minds of most bettors are now focused on Week 10 and the next round of games that we have to handicap.

The first thing that jumps out about Week 10 is that we have a ton of closely-lined games. As of Sunday night, nine games were lined at -3 or lower. Of course, we also have our largest number of the season with the Cowboys favored by 15.5 points against the Giants, who are down to Tommy DeVito and Matt Barkley. But, a lot of toss-up games, at least on paper, should make for an exciting week.

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Here are some Week 10 thoughts:

(odds as of 11/5, 10:20 p.m. PT)

Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears (-3, 40)

Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET

The other thing that really stands out is how awful the primetime games appear to be this week. This is one of them with the Panthers and Bears, as Justin Fields has a chance to return. If he doesn’t, we’ll get Tyson Bagent vs. Bryce Young in a battle of rookie QBs. The Bears are comfortably favored here with the early-week assumption that Fields will indeed return. The Panthers got another rough start from Young and were unable to build off of their first win of the season in Week 8 with a 27-13 loss to a really mediocre Colts team with a terrible defense. If the news on Fields is good on Tuesday, we could see this line go up over 3.

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-5.5, 39.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

The rematch between the Browns and Ravens will feature Deshaun Watson as opposed to Dorian Thompson-Robinson, but the Ravens look to be one of the best teams in the AFC this season. It felt like a tough spot against the Seahawks this past week, but all Baltimore did was win 37-3 and follow the Chiefs as the second team to reach seven wins in the conference this season. The Browns defense remains legit, though they had some holes in the first Baltimore meeting. It will be really interesting to see where this line goes, as Baltimore looks like a juggernaut, but bettors love a good defense getting points.

San Francisco 49ers (-2.5, 44.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

The 49ers return from the bye and play a long way from home as they take on the Jaguars. Jacksonville is also coming back from the bye, but the two teams went into their week off in very different places. The 49ers had lost three straight games and a lot of questions about Brock Purdy dominated the news cycle. The Jaguars rode into the bye week with five straight wins and a 6-2 record to comfortably lead the AFC South Division. You can still see the immense respect for the 49ers given that they are road favorites here in a battle of two teams that were going in different directions. Where does this line go? I’ll be very interested to see.

New Orleans Saints (-2.5, 41) at Minnesota Vikings

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Joshua Dobbs was thrust into a really challenging situation in his first game with the Vikings. He was acquired on Tuesday and found himself in the huddle after Jaren Hall left with a concussion. All Dobbs did was lead his team to a comeback victory while picking up the playbook on the fly. The Saints, meanwhile, were +5 in turnover margin and still had a hard time putting the Bears away. I can’t help but feel like this line moves in Minnesota’s direction, even with the weird circumstances at QB.

Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills (-7.5, 45.5)

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET

The Bills have problems, man. The defense is a shell of what it is supposed to look like with the Tre’Davious White and Matt Milano injuries. The offense turns the ball over too much. But, nobody believes in the Broncos, so the Bills find themselves laying more than a touchdown on MNF. Denver is coming off of the bye with an experienced head coach in Sean Payton, so you’d like to think that the team would show some improvement after a chance to rest up and attack their weaknesses. Also, they did beat the Packers and Chiefs heading into the week off. I don’t think this one stays above a touchdown for very long.

Early lines I like for this week:

Indianapolis Colts (-2, 43.5) vs. New England Patriots

Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET

This is another NFL game in Germany, as the Colts and Patriots head across the pond. Bill Belichick has proven to be an evil genius when it comes to defense, but he just doesn’t have the personnel this season. Meanwhile, Indy’s Shane Steichen has done an excellent job with the Colts offense throughout the season. It hasn’t mattered if it is Gardner Minshew or Anthony Richardson, they’ve still found ways to put points on the board. Scoring points has been a major shortcoming for the Patriots. They’ve scored at least 20 points just twice this season. The Colts have done it in every game.

Pick: Colts -2

Tennessee Titans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1, 39.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

The Bucs just allowed eight yards per play to CJ Stroud and the Texans in a 39-37 loss. While TB did score 37 points, they only had 5.3 yards per play and had an out-of-body experience going 4-for-5 in the red zone. The Bucs had scored just 37 points total over their previous three games, so I’m not really buying the offensive uptick. On the flip side, the Titans seem to have found something with Will Levis and he’s had some additional practice time with the No. 1s having played on Thursday last week. The Titans should’ve fared better than they did in that game and I think they’ll find a way to get the victory this week against a freefalling Tampa squad.

Pick: Titans +1