NFL Week 10: Our best bets, picks for every game

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VSiN Staff
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Welcome to Week 10 of the 2022 NFL season.

Throughout the season, our VSiN experts will combine to give their best bets on every game. Check back for more picks as we get closer to kickoff.

 

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Odds are from DraftKings (unless noted) as of Thursday night. Go to VSiN.com for Betting Splits for each game and live odds across the NFL market.

Seattle Seahawks vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3, 44.5) (in Munich)

Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET

Adam Burke: Crazy things may happen in Germany for the NFL’s first game in the country, but have we figured out why the Buccaneers are such a clear favorite over the Seahawks? Seattle is eighth in EPA per play on offense, while Tampa Bay is 21st. Seattle has a higher Dropback Success Rate with Geno Smith than the Bucs do with Tom Brady, and it isn’t terribly close (Seahawks are fourth and the Bucs are 10th).

The teams rank close to even in Rushing Success Rate and Rush EPA, but that dynamic has shifted a bit over the last four weeks, where Seattle is 17th in Rush EPA and Tampa Bay dead last. It is crazy to think that the Seahawks are the better offense, but they have been for the duration of the full season – and also in recent weeks.

Defensively, the Bucs are better, but Seattle is up to sixth in Dropback Success Rate on defense and we know that Tampa is one of the most one-dimensional offenses in the NFL. Also, the Seattle defense has been improving throughout the season and ranks second in EPA/play over the last four weeks, trailing only the Patriots.

I wouldn’t go so far as to say that the wrong team is favored here, but Tampa sure doesn’t deserve to be laying the full 3. Seattle is also worth a moneyline sprinkle.

Pick: Seahawks +3 / Seahawks ML (80/20 split)

Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5, 50.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Adam Burke: It will be chilly for the boys from the Sunshine State on Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium, but wind won’t be a factor – and that is the most important thing for these two offenses. The Jaguars and Chiefs should have the ability to put up points and get this game over the highest total on the board at 50.5.

There are a lot of reasons why we’ve seen this total go up, but chief among them is that the Jaguars actually grade pretty well in a lot of advanced metrics, and they should only keep doing better with the way that Travis Etienne is running the ball. Jacksonville is up to 10th in EPA/play and is actually seventh in Dropback EPA, so Trevor Lawrence is having a better season than the traditional metrics would suggest. This game features two of the top three offenses in Dropback Success Rate, with the Jags third and Chiefs first per rbsdm.com.

For the season, Jacksonville is 18th in Rush EPA, but eighth over the last four weeks when Etienne has gotten the start. He has averaged 6.12 yards per carry in that span. This is an improving offense, which comes as no surprise with a head coach like Doug Pederson.

We all know what the Chiefs offense can do. Kansas City is the league’s clear leader in EPA/play, Dropback EPA and also Dropback Success Rate. Jacksonville’s defensive numbers are fine, but they haven’t run into many good quarterbacks. Also, the Jaguars only have two takeaways in the last five games and three in the last six games. The Chiefs typically score when they don’t turn the ball over.

Pick: Over 50.5

Houston Texans at New York Giants (-4.5, 41)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Tuley: The Giants (6-2) are one of the overachieving teams of the first half of the season, but a lot of people have been saying they’ve been doing it with mirrors – and that belief was somewhat validated when they were beaten 27-13 by the Seahawks in Week 8 before having their bye week.

The Texans are bad (1-6-1), but they’ve been more competitive than expected at 4-3-1 ATS, including covering as 14-point dogs last Thursday against the Eagles.

This line opened at Giants -6.5, but sharp money has been betting it down to 4.5. We would have preferred it closer to a touchdown (in games that have been right around +7 this season, the Texans are 2-1 ATS), but if they could stay in the game against the Eagles, they should be able to at least stay within a field goal against the Giants. Houston is also worth a look at +175 on the money line.

Pick: Texans +4.5

Wes Reynolds: The Giants are off a bye week and have been one of the season surprises at 6-2. However, they are 29th in the league for yards per play margin and have been outgained in five of its eight games. 

This is only the second time in Daniel Jones’ career that he has been favored by more than three points and he has a 3-6 ATS mark as a favorite. 

Houston has the league’s worst record at 1-6-1, but are 4-3-1 ATS, so Lovie Smith’s bunch continues to play hard every single week. 

Although the Giants are off a loss in Seattle in what was a brutal spot going on the road in consecutive weeks and having to go across country to boot, these guys may be feeling themselves a little bit with Houston and Detroit coming to MetLife Stadium in back-to-back weeks. 

Houston has had some extra days to prepare after playing the previous Thursday night and the Giants look like they could be a bit flat at least early in the ball game.

Pick: Texans +3 1st Half/+4.5 Game

New Orleans Saints (-2.5, 40) at Pittsburgh Steelers

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Femi Abebefe: Like most NFL games this season, this one won’t be easy on the eyes from an offensive perspective. New Orleans is coming off a bad performance at home in prime time against Baltimore, while Pittsburgh was on bye last week after getting throttled by Philadelphia two weeks ago.

Admittedly, the Saints have been one of the teams that has confused me this season. I’ve found myself passing on their games more often than not due to the amount of injuries. So far this week, it doesn’t sound like Pro Bowl cornerback Marshon Lattimore is trending in the right direction to play in this game.

New Orleans also has a potential cluster injury situation on its offensive line with center Erik McCoy and guard Andrus Peat questionable. A banged-up O-line isn’t what you want against a Steelers front seven that is likely welcoming back the reigning Defensive Player of the Year in T.J. Watt. According to reports, Watt is expected to be on a pitch count, but his return should be a massive boost for a struggling defense.

Ultimately this game will come down to which quarterback can protect the ball the best, and in that case I’m riding with rookie signal-caller Kenny Pickett to put together a solid performance with the extra preparation.

Pick: Steelers ML +110

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-3, 48.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Adam Burke: Over the first six games of the season, the Bears scored 93 points; in their last three games, the Bears have scored 94 points. It has been as simple as unlocking the potential of Justin Fields by letting him use his legs. Offensive coordinator Luke Getsy and head coach Matt Eberflus deserve a lot of credit for making the change midstream and changing the narrative about Fields and the organization going forward.

Over the last four games, Chicago has its four best performances by total yards and has rushed for 972 yards. There are 14 NFL teams that haven’t run for 972 yards for the full season. Given that the Lions are 28th in both Rush EPA against and also Rushing Success Rate against, it looks as though the Bears will have another fruitful day on the ground. Detroit also the league’s worst pass defense, so maybe the Bears can make some plays that way.

Detroit has shown flashes of brilliance on offense, but going on the road may prove to be a different animal. The Lions have scored 20 offensive touchdowns in 307 plays at home, but only have three offensive touchdowns in 196 plays on the road. Their yards per play differential between home and road is -1.13 when they head out into the elements. The level of competition is part of the equation here, but the Lions have only played one true outdoor game this season – and they were shut out by the Patriots.

The knock on Jared Goff for a long time has been about his small hands and potential for problems throwing in cold weather. It won’t be as miserable as it could be in Chicago in November, but the wind chill will be around 30 degrees with sustained 15 mph winds and gusts up into the 20s. Give me the Bears and do yourself a favor and shop around for a -2.5.

Pick: Bears -2.5 (or -3 reduced juice)  

Femi Abebefe: What a difference a few weeks makes. Prior to their Week 7 game against the Patriots, the Bears were seen as one of the worst offenses in the NFL. However, something changed in the lead up to the game against New England. The coaching staff completely tailored the offense to what Fields does best.

Since then, the Bears have scored 33, 29 and 32 points in their last three games. They’ve been frisky in the underdog role as Fields has started to show why he was selected in the first round of the 2021 NFL draft.

All three of those scoring outbursts were in games in which the Bears were underdogs of more than a field goal, though (they were catching more than a TD against the Patriots and Cowboys). The role has reversed this week. Now they’re being asked to win by margin, something they haven’t done at any point this season.

While the Bears offense has finally found its footing, the defense is flat out atrocious, especially in the front seven. The Bears traded their two best front-seven defenders in linebacker Roquan Smith and defensive end Robert Quinn at the trade deadline, which could prove to be costly on Sunday against a really good Detroit offensive line.

I think the Lions are going to be able to open up holes in the round game, and give Goff enough protection to find his playmakers. This bad Bears defense shouldn’t be trusted to break serve in what could be a back-and-forth affair.

Pick: Lions +3

Cleveland Browns at Miami Dolphins (-3.5, 48.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Femi Abebefe: The Dolphins are starting to put together performances on offense that are making me buy into them as a darkhorse Super Bowl contender. With QB Tua Tagovailoa directing the aerial attack, the WRs Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle have become the most explosive dynamic duo in the league.

However, Miami has recently struggled on defense against below-average teams in Detroit and Chicago. Now they’ll welcome the Cleveland Browns down to South Beach off the bye. I’m sure if you polled football fans, 9 out of 10 of them would tell you the Browns are better than the Lions and Bears.

Now that isn’t the only reason I like them this week, but it does help shape my handicap of the game. I think Cleveland getting healthier in the trenches over the bye will help them keep this game close. This feels like one of those games where the Browns will lean on running back Nick Chubb to help keep Miami’s offense off the field.

Miami has a middle-of-the-road rush defense, but overall, its defense hasn’t been up to the task of covering spreads of more than a field goal. As long as Jacoby Brissett can avoid mistakes, I think the Browns will be able to give the Dolphins all they can handle on Sunday.

Pick: Browns +3.5

Wes Reynolds: This could be a good situation for Cleveland coming off the bye week with a big win on MNF against a division rival and having a week to get healthier along the offensive line (specifically G Wyatt Teller, who is Cleveland’s best run blocker). Meanwhile, Miami has escaped the last two weeks on the road against Detroit and Chicago. 

While Miami ranks 7th in Rush Defense DVOA, they have played some weaker rushing attacks (New England, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati) this season. The Browns have one of the best running games in the league and should be able to do enough against a Miami pass defense that is 31st in DVOA. 

Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski is 11-6 ATS as an underdog. 

Pick: Browns +3.5

Minnesota Vikings at Buffalo Bills (-4, 44)

Brady Kannon: To Josh or Not to Josh. Speculation has gone on all week whether or not Josh Allen will start at quarterback for the Bills, dealing with an elbow injury. He had not been practicing and we saw the line dip quite a bit.

The Vikings come in off their sixth win in a row, beating the Washington Commanders last week 20-17. This will be their first real test since they lost to the Eagles in Week 2.

The line in this game over the summer was Bills -8. The lookahead line was Bills -9.5 and it reopened this week at Bills -8. It instantly came down and continued to do so per the uncertainty of Josh Allen.

With Allen in the lineup, I’m not so sure I will have a play in this game. With Case Keenum getting the start for Buffalo, I will definitely be involved. Keenum saw great success with the Minnesota Vikings not that long ago in his career. He’s a very capable backup. It is possible that the line will dip under the key number of 3 if Keenum is announced as the starter and we’ve already seen the move from 3.5 to 3, which is significant. Keenum will certainly be motivated to perform well against his former team and his current team will do everything in its power to prop him up with their star (fallen hero) on the sidelines. Wide receiver Stefon Diggs can be added to the list of wanting to beat up on his former team too.

Minnesota has feasted on a very weak schedule yet they are 17th in Yards Per Play on offense, 22nd in Yards Per Play on defense, 16th in converting 3rd downs offensively, 20th in Defensive Passer Rating, 18th in Total DVOA, and dead last, 32nd in Red Zone Defense. That doesn’t add up to a 7-1 team.

My feeling is that Josh Allen will not play. The overreaction in the market and the situation for Buffalo and Case Keenum — against a Vikings team that I don’t think really is as good as its record would indicate, has me on the Bills.

Pick: Bills -3 (or better)

Denver Broncos at Tennessee Titans (-2.5, 38.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Tuley: The Titans (5-3), who had their five-game winning streak snapped in their 20-17 OT loss at the Chiefs on Sunday night, still lead the AFC South because the Colts, Jaguars and Texans are all below .500. The Broncos (3-5) are coming off their bye week after beating the Jaguars 21-17 in London two weeks ago.

The Titans’ offense is last in the league at just 278.5 yards per game as it relies mostly on RB Derrick Henry, who leads the NFL with 870 rushing yards.

They now face the Broncos’ No. 2 defense, which allows just 288.4 yards per game. The Denver D has kept the team in most games, but QB Russell Wilson and the offense have been inconsistent, averaging just 15.1 PPG, so I’m not sure I’ll be including the Broncos in any teasers.

The Over/Under is set low at 38.5, but it might now be low enough as the Broncos are 7-1 with the Under, including four in a row, while the Titans are on a five-game Under streak and 6-2 on the season.

Pick: Under 38.5 

Indianapolis Colts at Las Vegas Raiders (-6, 42.5)

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET

Brady Kannon: So we’ve got a team that has blown a 17-point lead on three separate occasions this season, a team that just put their All-Pro Tight End and top possession receiver on IR and had a player retire mid-week, taking on a team that gained just 2 yards per play last week, fired their coach and hired a coach who’s never coached. Is that what we have here?

With all that has gone on, we have seen the number bounce around a little bit. Over the summer, the Raiders were a 1-point favorite. The look ahead line was Raiders -3.5. Earlier this week, they opened as 6-point favorites and now, we are at Las Vegas -4.5 with a total of 41.5. Linebacker Shaquille Leonard is also back on the shelf this week for the Colts, being put on IR after reaggravating his back injury. The three-time Pro-Bowler has only seen limited time in a few games this season. 

I mentioned the Colts only averaging 2 yards per play in their game last week. That is the lowest mark for a Colts offense since 1977.

Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels was offered the head-coaching job with the Colts in 2018. He actually took the job and then changed his mind. You have to believe Colts ownership is still ticked about that and at the same time, McDaniels would love to stuff it again to this Colts organization.

Indianapolis actually applies to a strong road underdog bounce-back situation but I’m not going to go there with all that is such a question mark with their coaching staff. Rather, we’ll look to the total where 8 of the 9 Colts games have stayed under the total this season. With all of the problems for both teams, I don’t see this becoming an offensive shootout.

Pick: Under 41.5

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-3, 40)

Adam Burke: The Rams and Cardinals have both been slow starters this season. Arizona has only scored one offensive touchdown in the first quarter, while Los Angeles has only mustered three. Both quarterbacks are in question for this game and haven’t been able to get many practice reps in, so that could also impact the start before the teams get into some kind of rhythm. It’s also entirely possible that neither of them plays and we get John Wolford vs. Colt McCoy.

The first quarter under sits at 7 and even money at DraftKings. The Rams defense is still a respectable unit. The Cardinals pass defense has a lot of holes, but so does the Rams pass offense and it could be even worse if Matthew Stafford doesn’t clear concussion protocol. In a game with a lot of uncertainties, this bet still makes sense if Stafford and Kyler Murray are able to go, but may make even more sense if they can’t.

Pick: 1st Quarter Under 7 (+100)

Dallas Cowboys (-5, 43) at Green Bay Packers

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

Femi Abebefe: For weeks, it feels like bettors in the market have been looking for the “buy-low” spot on the struggling Packers. Despite losing four games in a row, the betting market still had interest in the Pack heading into a divisional matchup with the Lions.

However, after another loss in embarrassing fashion, it feels like the market is done with this team. So much so, that they’re now catching more than a field goal at home against the Dallas Cowboys. Now there are plenty of factors that make up this line, injuries probably being the biggest. Green Bay has a number of key players banged up, most notably Pro Bowl pass rusher Rashan Gary who is out for the rest of the season with a knee injury.

On the flip side, Dallas is coming off the bye and will be as healthy as they’ve been all season long. In fact, the Cowboys should be extra motivated to win as their head coach Mike McCarthy returns to Lambeau Field for the first time since being fired during the 2018 season after 13 seasons in Green Bay.

With that said, this just feels like a game where the Packers throw the kitchen sink at the Cowboys. By Sunday evening, I think we’re going to see the very best of the Packers as currently constructed. Now will that be good enough to stay within the number? I think so. I’d expect head coach Matt LaFleur to try to exploit Dallas’ run defense with the two-headed rushing attack of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon.

It doesn’t feel good based on the last six weeks, but I think the Packers are the play this weekend, and dare I say, could be live to pull off the outright upset.

Pick: Packers +5

Tuley: The Packers have been one of the most disappointing teams of the first half of the season, though not for yours truly as I’ve made a fair amount by fading them in most of their games and also jumping on them when they covered as 10.5-point road dogs at Buffalo in their 27-17 spread-covering loss on Sunday Night Football in Week 8.

After fading them again vs. the Lions in Week 9, I’m back on them again here as Aaron Rodgers certainly plays better at Lambeau Field (Marc Lawrence of playbook.com – and also a contestant in the Circa Friday Football Invitational on VSiN – passes on the tidbit that Rodgers is 29-10-2 ATS against teams coming off a SU and ATS win, including 4-0-1 ATS as a dog).

The Cowboys (6-2 SU, 6-2 ATS) have certainly earned the right to be favored here, but Rodgers should be able to do enough to get the cover if not the outright win.

Pick: Packers +5

Los Angeles Chargers at San Francisco 49ers (-7, 45.5)

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET

Tuley: The whole world seems to be jumping on the 49ers’ bandwagon since the trade for RB Christian McCaffrey. I know he’s a stud, but the 49ers have had plenty of capable RBs yet are still only 4-4 this season and I don’t see why this spread is so high.

It opened -6.5 on Sunday afternoon and was quickly bet up to 7, so that’s when I grabbed it. Meanwhile, the Chargers are 5-3 SU and ATS and have kind of become an overlooked team even though they’re just one game behind the Chiefs in the AFC West. They still have an overall roster that’s just as talented as the 49ers and should be able to keep this a one-score game with a great shot at the outright upset.

Pick: Chargers +7

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