NFL Survivor Picks

We’ve hit Week 10 of what has been a difficult season for Survivor players. The Saints took out a chunk of remaining players across the NFL contest landscape, but the other popular teams were able to hold on. If you didn’t have the Saints, it was a good week for you. If you did, it was truly a valiant effort to make it this far.

There are a lot of favorites that are worthy of consideration this week. The Circa Survivor contest is down to 151 of the 14,266 entries that began way back in September. That is 1.05% of the field. Perhaps your contest pool looks like that. Maybe it doesn’t. But there are a ton of options this week and we’ll see how many thin the herd and how many wipe out players.

 

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Once again, we’ll consult the Survivor tools over at PoolGenius and look at this week’s options.

Week 10 NFL Survivor Teams to Consider

New York Giants (-6.5) over Carolina Panthers

I’m putting the Giants here because this is about the only spot you can really consider them this season. They’re laying a big number in Germany against the Panthers and this line has shot up in a noticeable way.

With so many other options, you don’t have to take this kind of risk, but if you want to save teams like the Vikings, Chiefs, Bears, Chargers, or Eagles – or don’t have any of those teams left – this is definitely one up for consideration.

The Giants are 67% to win per PoolGenius, easily their highest win probability.

Minnesota Vikings (-7) over Jacksonville Jaguars

If you didn’t take the Vikings during their five-game winning streak – and you probably didn’t at Giants, vs. 49ers, vs. Texans, at Packers, vs. Jets – then they are very much on the table this week. Their mini two-game skid is over after a nice win against the Colts and now they’re laying a big road price against the Jaguars sans Trevor Lawrence.

This is the start of three straight roadies for Minnesota, as they’ll visit the Titans next week and Bears the week after. Their remaining home games are the Cardinals, Falcons, Bears, and Packers in a run of four home games in five weeks. Do you see a spot to be really confident in them over those games?

They’ll be favored in the majority (or all) of them barring injury, but not to this magnitude. The Jags are in the midst of an awful season. Doug Pederson is biding his time until he’s fired. The Lawrence injury seems to sound rather ominous and potentially season-ending. Every skill guy is questionable, plus a couple of offensive linemen.

That would mean Mac Jones faces the Brian Flores’ BLITZkrieg defense, as they love to send pressure from everywhere.

The Vikings are 72% to win per PoolGenius, tied for their highest win expectation of the rest of the season.

Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5) over Denver Broncos

The Chiefs really aren’t playing all that well, Patrick Mahomes is tied for second in interceptions, and the team is undefeated. Imagine telling somebody that it’s Week 10 and Patrick Mahomes has an 11/9 TD/INT ratio. Nobody would expect the Chiefs to be undefeated, but here we are.

The Bills are on deck, so is there a bit of a lookahead factor here? Can the Broncos right the ship after getting owned by the Ravens last week? Have you used KC already? They’ve been good to you if you have. They will be heavy favorites on the road at Carolina and at home against the Raiders (short week) after that Buffalo game.

The Chiefs have played eight games and six have ended in a one-possession game. They’ll probably win, but you might have to sweat it.

KC is the second-likeliest winner at 77% per PoolGenius.

Chicago Bears (-6) over New England Patriots

At 4-4, the Bears reside in the basement of the NFC North. They didn’t score a touchdown last week against the Cardinals. And, yet, they have to be on the short list this week. In my mind, this is the only time you can take Chicago the rest of the way without being forced into it by having no other option.

The remaining schedule: Packers, Vikings, Lions (Thanksgiving), 49ers, Vikings, Lions, Seahawks, Packers. The Lions/49ers/Vikings set is all on the road and so is the Packers game. I guess you could talk me into being interested in Week 17 against the Seahawks, but I can’t see them favored by this much in that game, even if it is a short week at home.

I guess I’m a little biased because I like the Bears this week. I even wrote about it. Chicago is a bit dysfunctional, sure. The DJ Moore thing looks bad. Caleb Williams is doing what rookies do – he’s played well and played poorly. But, the Patriots are objectively not good and the Bears have no excuses here.

The Bears are 67% to win per PoolGenius. The Seahawks game is 54% and the second-highest.

Philadelphia Eagles (-7) over Dallas Cowboys

The Dak Prescott injury has pushed the Eagles all the way out to a touchdown favorite against a Cowboys team that, in the words of their QB, f-ing sucks. I can’t do anything here to recommend going against the Eagles, but I do want to mention this. The Cowboys were thought to be the Thanksgiving pick if you are in a contest that follows those rules.

They are at home against the Giants. The other games are Bears at Lions, Dolphins at Packers, and Raiders at Chiefs. The Friday game may end up being a savior with KC in play. Prescott’s injury could have a wide-ranging impact in Survivor pools, so that is a really big deal to think about going forward. Maybe not right now. But down the line.

As mentioned, Philly over Carolina in Week 14 is still my sweet spot for them, even though they clearly should win this week.

PoolGenius does have the Eagles as the likeliest winner at 78%, but they are 90% against the Panthers in Week 14.

Week 10 NFL Survivor Pick

Los Angeles Chargers (-7.5) over Tennessee Titans

The Chargers had some offensive hiccups coming off of the bye, but the defense was stellar in the road win over Cleveland last week. Tennessee’s defense is not nearly on Cleveland’s level, so this looks like a pretty optimal spot to take the Chargers.

Lloyd Cushenberry is a monumental loss on the offensive line. It doesn’t really matter if Will Levis or Mason Rudolph is the QB. There are tons of injuries for the Titans and at key skill positions on both sides of the ball. Brian Callahan was emotional after his team’s overtime win against New England, but that game never should have gotten to OT and the Patriots are not a good football team. Callahan has made a lot of poor in-game decisions in his first season as a head coach.

I have a hard time seeing how the Titans are competitive here. The Chargers looked good off the bye with their first-year head coach and outshine Tennessee in so many areas.

So the question – is this the week to take the Chargers? Their remaining schedule features one good spot in Week 14 against Jacksonville. They have four road games left plus home games against the Vikings, Bengals, and Texans. I think I’d use them this week with the Eagles available in Week 14 against the Panthers at home. Unless you don’t have Philly. Then you need to save them.

The Chargers are 73% to win per PoolGenius. It is their highest win probability of the rest of the season.

Week 10 Survivor Pick: Chargers

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