Survivor
One of the tougher weeks in Survivor contests has arrived. When you enter and start planning out your blueprint for the season, there are weeks that you circle and know could be problematic. You never want to root for injuries, but they can make things a little bit easier and a little bit clearer on some of the weeks that fall into that category. Like this one, with trying to make Week 10 NFL Survivor picks.
This is one of those weeks that serves as a reminder of how you need to pick at least 18 and maybe even 20 teams to win a Survivor contest usually. Obviously a smaller pool may not make it to the end, but any pool of decent size has a high probability of going that far and elite teams are in short supply.
Now, that being said, if you still have the Broncos or Bills at your disposal, this week becomes a lot easier and kudos to you for holding out on them. If you don’t, the decisions are a little more challenging. As I’ve said, I try to be as time-relevant as possible with the advice I provide and the pick I ultimately suggest. So, I’m trying to be cognizant of which teams are likely still available, given that there have been good times already to take Denver or Buffalo. Similarly, the Lions look great, but if you’re in Circa Survivor, they’re a team playing on both holidays.
So, let’s navigate the choppy waters and see what ultimately looks the best here in Week 10 with all the factors at play.
PoolGenius has great NFL Survivor Tools and also NFL Pick ‘Em Tools for you to check out. For this season, they also have Circa Survivor tools set up to account for the holiday weeks.
Week 10 NFL Survivor Teams to Consider
Broncos (-8.5) over Raiders
Those with the Broncos to deploy on Thursday Night Football are truly in great shape. I used them back in Week 1 with this article and even though both the Bills and Falcons came up lame for me, I’m still trying to play this thing out and not repeat any teams.
So, I won’t use Denver, but you should if you have them. Short week with travel to altitude for the Raiders, who have more interceptions than passing touchdowns and only have three rushing scores on the season. Hell, they almost have as many turnovers (13) as touchdowns (14). They’ve also scored 44 points over four road games and six points combined over the last two.
And not only that, but the Broncos defense is No. 1 in yards per play allowed, No. 4 in EPA/play, No. 1 in Success Rate, No. 4 in Dropback EPA, No. 1 in Dropback Success Rate, No. 7 in Rush EPA, No. 6 in Rush Success Rate. Not sure how the Raiders effectively move the ball here.
PoolGenius has the Broncos as the No. 2 team at 78% win probability.
Colts (-6.5) over Falcons
This one is not nearly as exciting, but if you still have Indy, it is actually the best remaining spot to take them according to PoolGenius. Many used them as a massive favorite over the Titans two weeks ago. Hard to argue with that kind of deployment.
PoolGenius says 74% over the Falcons here in Germany, which is better than Week 13 against Houston and Week 17 against Jacksonville, both at home. Indianapolis keeps rolling and Atlanta keeps having problems at the most important position on the field. Again, probably not an option for most entries, but worthy of a mention.
Browns (-2.5) over Jets
I cringed as I typed that, but look, the Jets are a disaster. They traded two key defensive players in Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams and it cannot be a happy locker room. Cleveland swung into a road favorite role here and the -2.5 line implies the Browns would be roughly a TD favorite at home. We’ll see how excited the Jets fan base is to support their team here.
The Browns will be favored again in Week 14 against the Titans and that’s the spot to use them if you have to. Like I said above, you have to ride with 18 or 20 of the 32 teams. I’m not sure that Cleveland is one you want to ride with, but…yeah.
PoolGenius lists the Browns at 55%, one of their two remaining games with a win probability of 43% or higher as of now.
Lions (-8) over Commanders
The Lions are heavy chalk against Marcus Mariota and the Commanders. If you are in Circa Survivor or a contest with those rules, you can’t take Detroit here. As great of a spot as it seems, they play on both holidays and you can ill-afford to let a team like that go. You have to keep your options open in case of injury or anything like that.
If you are in a traditional 18-week Survivor, let ‘em rip if you want, though they’ll be a similar or bigger favorite at home against the Giants in Week 12. If you’ve already used the Ravens, which you probably haven’t, they’re the best Week 12 option. But, the Lions are a viable one as well.
Bills (-9.5) over Dolphins
Buffalo probably isn’t on your list of available teams either, but this is their best remaining spot prior to Week 18 it would seem. The Bills do have a good spot in Week 14 against the Bengals, pending Joe Burrow’s return. If he returns at all. But, the schedule does get stiffer for the Bills after this week.
With wins over the Panthers and Chiefs after the bye, it feels as though they’re figuring some things out and Miami hasn’t figured out too much this season. Pretty obvious consideration here, but, again, if you don’t have them, you can’t take them.
PoolGenius has Buffalo as the top pick with 80% win probability.
Ravens (-4) over Vikings
I don’t really think that this is a great consideration, but if you were thinking about taking Baltimore because they seem to be peaking a bit with Lamar Jackson back, they are 68% per PoolGenius this week.
The next six games, they are 79% (at CLE), 89% (NYJ), 83% (CIN), bye, 70% (PIT), 66% (at CIN), 68% (NE), so I would take them off of your list if you are thinking about it at all. I mostly wanted to mention it for that reason. Also to say that they’re 66% win probability or better in each of their next seven games in a terrible division. There might be some futures equity to hop on this week.
Seahawks (-6.5) over Cardinals
I really, really like this Seattle team and the metrics do, too. They have a few good spots left to take them if you haven’t already, though I’m sure they were very popular for that home game against the Saints earlier this season. There are no holiday considerations here and I think that they are maybe the best option on the board.
I did use them in this article in Week 3 against New Orleans, so they are not an option for me. If they are for you, I think they’re in a good position. This Seahawks team is second in YPP (6.3), third in YPP allowed (4.7), seventh in EPA/play on defense, and 11th in EPA/play on offense. However, they are second in Dropback EPA and first in Dropback Success Rate. Their running game is dragging the offense down.
This is a very good team. The division is tough and they’d have a tough playoff draw, but this team actually has the look of a Super Bowl contender by the stats. PoolGenius has Seattle at 75% this week.
NFL Week 10 Survivor Pick
Panthers (-5.5) over Saints
I know this one is a little bit scary, especially with some of the other considerations on the board. However, like I’ve said before, you want to try to leverage the middle-of-the-road teams when you can. Carolina won’t be favored like this the rest of the way and, honestly, may not be favored again at all. They should be a short road favorite against the Saints in Week 15, but that’s down the line and who knows if Tyler Shough will show some improvement.
Given the game state, this should be favorable for Carolina, assuming Rico Dowdle can play. Hell, Chuba Hubbard might even find success in a spot like this. The Panthers are fifth in Rush EPA and Rushing Success Rate this season. With a lead, they should be able to leverage that. Even though the Saints are in the top half of the league against the run, they are a borderline bottom-five defense against the pass.
In other words, if Carolina is going to find success throwing the football to help balance out the run, this is the type of game where they can do it.
Because some of the higher considerations, Bills, Broncos, Seahawks, and Colts have probably already been used, and the Lions need to be held back if the holidays are a worry, the Panthers are one of the next in line at 66% and the hope would be that they keep playing well.
Pick: Panthers
Teams Used: Broncos, Cardinals, Seahawks, Texans, Bills, Packers, Patriots, Falcons, Rams
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