NFL Week 11 Best Bets, Picks and Predictions from Wes Reynolds:

Here are my NFL Week 11 best bets: 

 

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Cleveland Browns (+1; 44) at New Orleans Saints

Both teams have had disappointing seasons that are likely both going nowhere fast. Last week, the Saints had their big effort for interim head coach Darren Rizzi and still had to hang on to upset Atlanta 20-17. This week, it feels like it is the Browns’ turn for a big effort off a bye and with Jameis Winston returning to face his former Saints team.

Cleveland also has close to its cleanest injury report of the season, while the Saints are banged up at WR, OL, and the secondary.

This game should be won in the trenches, where Cleveland has the edge on both sides of the ball. New Orleans ranks 28th in pass rush win rate, 29th in run stop win rate, and 31st in Rush DVOA. Offensively, the Saints are 31st in pass block win rate. Good luck blocking Myles Garrett.

NFL Week 11 Best Bet: Cleveland Browns +1

Atlanta Falcons at Denver Broncos (-2; 44.5)

Denver looked like they were going to be the team that ended the Chiefs’ unbeaten streak, but (in best Kevin Harlan voice) “BLOCKED!” The Broncos had the 35-yard likely game-winning FG blocked, and the Chiefs still have an 0 in the loss column.

This week, the Broncos will have to gather themselves to take on Atlanta, who has been very fortunate in close games this season until last week when Younghoe Koo missed three field goals and the Falcons lost by three.

This matchup should favor Denver, as the Falcons struggle to rush the passer (29th in pressure rate). The Broncos do not allow much pressure (1st in pass block win rate), so Bo Nix should have plenty of time to make plays.

Meanwhile, Denver gets pressure and has the secondary to blanket the Falcons’ receivers (4th Pass D DVOA).

NFL Week 11 Best Bet: Denver Broncos -130 ML

Cincinnati Bengals at Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5; 48)

Last time out, the Bengals dropped their second game of the season to Baltimore, both of which they should have won. Now Cincinnati finds itself 4-6 on a season where Joe Burrow is putting up MVP numbers.

The Bengals travel west to face a Chargers team that has won three in a row and four of their last five games. However, the last three wins were against New Orleans with Spencer Rattler starting, at Cleveland with backup Jameis Winston, and vs. Tennessee with Will Levis coming back from missing three games with a shoulder injury.

The Chargers defense has legitimately improved under first-year DC Jesse Minter and are 8th in DVOA. However, they have played the weakest strength of schedule of offenses. Now they take on a Cincinnati offense whose QB leads the league in completions, attempts, and passing yards and has Tee Higgins returning after missing the last two games.

Despite the positive improvements from the Chargers defense, the softer schedule masks some of the questionable metrics like being 29th in pressure rate and 25th in adjusted line yards.

Cincinnati could be a team poised to make a bit of a run in the second half of the season, and it should start against a Chargers team that is a bit overvalued.

NFL Week 11 Best Bet: Cincinnati Bengals +1.5

TOTAL OF THE WEEK
Seahawks/49ers UNDER 48

TEASER OF THE WEEK
Bengals +7.5/Chiefs +8.5

BEST OF THE REST
Titans +6 vs. Vikings
Seahawks +6.5 at 49ers
Cowboys +7.5 -120 vs. Texans

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