NFL Week 11:

Thirty of the league’s 32 teams have moved on to Week 11, as we still have Monday Night Football to wrap up Week 10, but that’s it. We’re well past the midpoint of the season now and there aren’t really a lot of surprises coming with the teams. What we see is what we get, aside from the regular nature of the NFL, where everybody is a professional and anybody can beat anybody in any given week.

Let’s look at how the results from Week 10 shifted the market and analyze the Week 11 schedule.

 

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Here is the Week 11 NFL Odds Report:

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5, 49)

Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET

The Commanders allegedly fell a few feet short in their game against the Steelers, but that didn’t do anything to alter the number. The Eagles took care of their affairs as expected and crushed the Cowboys sans Dak Prescott. This line is right where it was heading into the week and it sure looks like the Commanders are getting a lot of respect, if we assume something close to three points for home-field advantage on a short week.

Green Bay Packers (-6.5, 41.5) at Chicago Bears

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

The Packers had a lovely bye week, as the Bears got embarrassed at home by the Patriots. Chicago has to make a really big Matt Eberflus decision soon and Shane Waldron may no longer be the OC as the week begins. Green Bay didn’t do anything but rest, and yet they’ve run all the way out to a 6.5-point favorite after being around 2.5 or 3 in the market prior to Chicago’s ugly effort against New England.

Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints (-2, 43.5)

1 p.m. ET

Darren Rizzi promised that the Saints wouldn’t be boring and they weren’t in Week 10. They beat the Falcons 20-17 at home and now have a chance at winning two in a row with the hapless Browns coming to town for the Jameis Winston Bowl. Cleveland was on a bye last week and may look a little bit healthier this week, but that’s really about all you can say about them. This line was in the -1 or -1.5 range, but now the Saints are threatening to get to that key number of 3.

Baltimore Ravens (-3, 47) at Pittsburgh Steelers

1 p.m. ET

Mike Tomlin off a bye. Lather, rinse, repeat. The Terrible Towels will be waving just a little harder for this rivalry tilt where the three rivers meet in Pittsburgh. This game has massive implications for both teams. The Ravens are on the half-bye after barely beating the Bengals in Week 10 on Thursday night. Baltimore’s secondary issues are well-documented and Russell Wilson had great success going downfield against Washington. The spread didn’t move much here, but the total has adjusted up from 44.5 to 47 based off of the opening number.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions (-13, 48)

1 p.m. ET

Some shops in the market were slow to post this one, given that we don’t know the status of Trevor Lawrence yet. It seems as though it may be the Mac Jones show once again, as Lawrence is said to be dealing with a potential season-ending shoulder injury. Jacksonville has no reason to put their very expensive QB at risk with nothing to play for the rest of the season. This line did get bumped up based on the Lawrence reports and prognosis, but, man, it is hard to lay this number after what we saw Detroit do against Houston. Five interceptions, trailed by two scores, still won. And now they play a terrible team at home.

Minnesota Vikings (-6.5, 39.5) at Tennessee Titans

1 p.m. ET

I don’t think it matters much whether we see Will Levis or Mason Rudolph for Tennessee. The market doesn’t really see a discernible difference either. But, what the market does see is a Vikings team that is dramatically better than the Titans and one that grew into a larger favorite from the lookahead line. Minnesota wasn’t even that impressive in beating Jacksonville, but I don’t think that it matters with the Titans on the docket. I’d expect we see some 7s here at some point.

Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets (-3, 44)

1 p.m. ET

The Jets went from dog to favorite against Arizona and that was a move that clearly didn’t work out at all. Arizona won convincingly. And the Jets got badly outcoached with their interim boss. The Colts did not show well against the Bills and Joe Flacco is not playing very well at all, so we get the line that we’ve got, but I’m not sure either team is a reliable bet at this point.

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5, 48.5)

4:05 p.m. ET

The 49ers barely outlasted the Buccaneers and now head into this game against a Seattle squad that had some time to rest and recuperate. We’ve yet to see how first-year head coach Mike Macdonald will look after a bye, but the market seems cautiously optimistic, given that SF was favored by this price in Tampa against the Bucs. TB is obviously dealing with major losses at WR, but the 49ers failed to cover there. The line didn’t adjust off that result, but I’ll be watching it closely.

Atlanta Falcons at Denver Broncos (-1.5, 43.5)

4:05 p.m. ET

We’ve got a flipped favorite situation here, as Atlanta was originally laying a number in Denver, but now they are not. The Broncos had a chance to beat the Chiefs and end the perfect season, but had the game-winning field goal blocked. Still, it was enough of an effort to make them a home favorite against the Falcons, who lost to the Saints and an interim head coach in Week 10. The market seems to have a love affair with the Falcons, who I think have been overrated for a few weeks now. It seems as though that may be ending.

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills (-2.5, 45.5)

4:25 p.m. ET

The Chiefs have been flirting with losses, but, to this point, have avoided suffering one. They came as close as they have in a while against the Broncos, as Denver’s game-winning FG was blocked. They now face the Bills and we’ll get to hear all week about Patrick Mahomes and his record as an underdog – 11-3 SU, 12-1-1 ATS, depending on the closing line at the sportsbook you are referencing. KC is not playing like a team equipped to beat Buffalo, who handled the Colts in a pretty tough spot this past week.

Cincinnati Bengals at Los Angeles Chargers (-2, 45.5)

8:20 p.m. ET

The Bengals have to be the most annoying team of the season for sportsbooks. You have to respect the talent and a player like Joe Burrow. On the other hand, they are wasting Burrow and have a bad record. Here against the Chargers, this line has ticked up a point or a half-point, depending on where you look, but here we are still short of the key number of 3. The Chargers are playing at a really high level and don’t beat themselves. The defense is playing well. I’ll be very interested to see where this line goes, as I think we’ll have a lot of support for LA.

Houston Texans (-7, 42) at Dallas Cowboys

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET

Lone Star State bragging rights are on the line here, but this game is obviously watered-down with Dak Prescott sidelined. That said, the Texans really blew one against the Lions and it is extremely hard to take anything for granted with the way that Houston is playing. The offensive line has issues and the skill positions have been ravaged by injury. And, yet, Dallas was lifeless against Philadelphia, Mike McCarthy is a dead man walking, and maybe the Texans can get right like the Eagles did. I’ll say this, the line is up to 7, even with Houston’s loss.

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