NFL Survivor Picks

Last week was a tough one for Survivor players. Those that tried to sneak through the Giants, Bears, and Falcons were all disappointed. The Vikings had a scare, the Eagles did not, and the Chargers were able to keep those who backed them alive heading into Week 11.

The walls might feel like they are closing in a bit because the top, and most trustworthy, teams have probably been used up or are close to being off the board. Fortunately, some teams we thought would be really good, but have been stunted by injuries, are probably available this week. We’ve also got the biggest favorite of the season on the board, but most probably don’t have them as an option or have to save them for Thanksgiving.

 

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Let’s look at the options and, ultimately, a conclusion.

Once again, we’ll consult the Survivor tools over at PoolGenius and look at this week’s options.

Week 11 NFL Survivor Teams to Consider

Detroit Lions (-14) over Jacksonville Jaguars

The Lions are a two-touchdown favorite this week at home against the Jaguars. Jacksonville mustered one touchdown in the start of the Mac Jones Redemption Tour last week against the Vikings. Of course, they did hold Minnesota’s offense to 12 points and zero touchdowns, but a repeat effort against Ben Johnson and the Lions is a big ask.

This could also be the last game for Jags head coach Doug Pederson with the bye week looming. You really have to wonder about the mindset of this Jaguars team, as they’ve beaten the Patriots and Colts and nobody else.

Jared Goff threw five interceptions last week against the Texans and the Lions still won the game. Imagine what they could do here against Jacksonville if they take care of the ball.

The Lions must be saved for Thanksgiving if that is a separate week in your contest. If not, fire away if you still have them.

The Lions are 87% to win according to PoolGenius. They are absolutely the pick if Thanksgiving doesn’t matter, but I started this with the Circa Survivor rules in mind and they have to be saved. I’ll write the article early for Week 13 and mention them then.

Minnesota Vikings (-6) over Tennessee Titans

It’s probably a little less than a toss-up as to whether or not the Vikings are still available with your entry. There have been some good spots to take them, including last week. This is another road favorite spot, though, which can be a bit worrisome, but the Titans are a dumpster fire. Will Levis, Mason Rudolph, it really doesn’t matter. The team’s defense has fallen in the rankings as the season has gone along.

Barring any sort of setback, it will be Levis up against the Brian Flores BLITZkrieg defense and he’s taken 50 sacks in 15 games over the last two seasons. He’s gone over 200 passing yards just once this season and was just sacked seven times last week by the Chargers in his first game in about a month.

The weather looks fine for the Vikings, who play in a dome, but have a QB in Sam Darnold who has played in all kinds of conditions. There’s no excuse for them to lose this game. The remaining schedule is Bears*, Cardinals, Falcons, Bears, Seahawks*, Packers, Lions* with the starred games on the road. They’ll be a bigger favorite than this in Week 15 at home against Chicago barring a big turnaround for the Bears, so you could save them for Monday Night Football if you wanted.

PoolGenius has the Vikings at 71% to win the game. They are 76% against the Bears.

Houston Texans (-7) over Dallas Cowboys

The Texans are favored in the same range that the Eagles were last week against the Cowboys sans Dak Prescott. Philly won 34-6 and Cooper Rush had 45 passing yards. Houston has so many problems right now. The offensive line is bad. The wide receiver corps has been watered-down by injury. But, we have to think about them, right?

It is far from a must-win game for the Texans, who are 6-4 and have a two-game lead on Indy and won both head-to-head meetings, so it’s effectively a three-game lead. BUt, it does seem like something of a get-right spot, doesn’t it?

That being said, the Texans also host the Titans next week in what will be their biggest favorite role of the season in all likelihood. I don’t think the Cowboys win this week, but is there less of a chance that the Titans win?

PoolGenius has the Texans 77% to win this week and 76% to win next week against Tennessee.

San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) over Seattle Seahawks

The scoreboard said 23-20 last week against the Bucs, but the box score said a whole lot more. Brock Purdy threw for 353 yards and the 49ers had a 413-215 edge in yardage. The Seahawks are coming off of a bye for first-year head coach Mike Macdonald and project to be healthier and maybe even in a decent spot with a sharp football mind on some extra prep.

That said, the 49ers won 36-24 and outgained Seattle by 125 yards in the first meeting when they weren’t playing very well and didn’t have Christian McCaffrey.

This is still one of the higher-rated teams in the league and their remaining schedule of Seahawks, Packers*, Bills*, Bears, Rams, Dolphins*, Lions, Cardinals* will include some favorite roles. That being said, it’ll be tough to find one as high as this. The game against the Bears is the one to circle if you haven’t used them yet.

The 49ers are 70% to win per PoolGenius, but they have two games left with a higher win probability.

Week 11 NFL Survivor Pick

Miami Dolphins (-7) over Las Vegas Raiders

It has been a lost season for the Dolphins, but the playoff bubble in the AFC is super weak and the Dolphins could be 5-6 after facing the Raiders and Patriots in the next two games. They have a lot of work to do, but it isn’t out of the question that they can make a playoff push and that has to be the message from Mike McDaniel to his team.

Miami has three losses recently by 10 combined points around the road wins against the Patriots and Rams. To me, the question is whether you take them this week or next. Gardner Minshew will remain the Raiders QB, as they actually entertained going with recently-signed Desmond Ridder because things are so dire at the position.

The Raiders have given up at least 27 points in four of the last five games and Miami still has a ton of offensive weapons, even if we’ve seen a down year from most of them as a result of the Tua Tagovailoa concussion.

The Dolphins are 76% this week and 73% next week per PoolGenius, so I’ll roll with them this week.

Week 11 Survivor Pick: Dolphins

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