Survivor
NFL Survivor pools are getting smaller and smaller with each passing week, even though it has been a pretty chalky season in a lot of respects. Favorites overall are 100-48 (67.6%). Favorites of 7+ points are 25-8, though they are only 16-17 ATS over those 33 games. It feels like that group of eight losers has featured some of the most popular Survivor picks. The Panthers weren’t favored by that margin last week, but they did go down as favorites against the lowly Saints. If you’re still making NFL Week 11 Survivor picks, good for you!
Two of the bigger favorites this week are road teams and the biggest favorite is in action on Thursday Night Football. It is a tricky week in some respects, especially with the holidays coming closer for those in Circa Survivor or contests with similar rules. We actually have a really good, entertaining slate of Sunday action this week, which is great for fans and viewers, but not as great for those trying to stay alive in their pools.
I had the Panthers in last week’s article, so that didn’t go well. I’m still writing this weekly in hopes of providing some insights, especially on teams that are still available to most and are under consideration for that week. I also made the decision not to repeat teams in this weekly article, even though it is no longer “surviving”, just to help simulate what readers may be facing.
PoolGenius has great NFL Survivor Tools and also NFL Pick ‘Em Tools for you to check out. For this season, they also have Circa Survivor tools set up to account for the holiday weeks.
Week 11 NFL Survivor Teams to Consider
Patriots (-13) over Jets
If you still have the Patriots at your disposal, this is the easy choice and probably the correct one. One of the things that I’ve fallen victim to this season is trying to save the obvious choice because that’s usually a good team and one that I’d like to have further down the line. That has burned me twice. Saving teams doesn’t matter if you don’t have an entry left to use them later.
The Patriots project to be comfortable favorites in five of their remaining seven games. They are not a holiday team. I don’t need to get into the stats here. If you have them, use them. PoolGenius has them at 86% this week, 7% higher than any other team. Personally, I used the Patriots back in Week 7, so they can’t be the pick for this week’s article.
Packers (-7) over Giants
The Jameis Winston Experience is simultaneously exhilarating and terrifying in a Survivor contest. You know he’s going to throw a couple of back-breaking, god-awful, interceptions. But, you know he’s also going to fit some ball into a window the size of a thimble for a TD pass. He’s such a high-variance player.
But, there is a lot going on with the Giants. Brian Daboll was fired. Jaxson Dart has been a real spark for the offense, but he’s now sidelined, along with Malik Nabers and Cam Skattebo. Dart has played like a slightly above average QB in a lot of metrics this season, though his legs have been a big help. Even with that, the Giants are 2-5 in his starts. This defense is bad, allowing 5.9 YPP and they only have six takeaways. They are 26th in points per drive allowed.
I understand that there are a lot of questions, concerns, and general skepticism about Jordan Love right now, as he hasn’t played well lately and looked very bad on MNF against the Eagles. It’s a short week, quick turnaround, and a road game in what could be rainy conditions. It’s still hard to see the Packers losing.
PoolGenius has Green Bay as the third choice at 77%. Personally, I used them for this article in Week 6.
Ravens (-7.5) over Browns
This is the most agonizing of decisions this week. If you don’t have the Patriots and don’t have Circa Survivor rules, they’re the play. They’ve won three in a row, Dillon Gabriel is terrible, and the Browns are an absolute disaster. If you do have Circa Survivor rules, this is a difficult choice.
Joe Burrow is reportedly on track for a Thanksgiving return. With six teams on Thursday and two on Friday (Eagles/Bears), you’d like to have as many available as possible in case of injury. If Burrow can’t make it back, the Ravens are the obvious choice on the holiday. Even if he does make it back, what kind of playing shape will he be in by that time?
Then there’s also the fact that the Ravens host the Jets next week, where PoolGenius has them 89% to win. That is the highest remaining win expectancy of any team in any week the rest of the season. I mentioned in the intro that I’ve made the mistake at times this season of playing the long game instead of worrying about the short game and hitting a 5-iron 225 yards into a par 5 instead of trying to avoid the water with the driver.
So, that’s the choice to make here. The Ravens are 79% this week per PoolGenius.
Texans (-6.5) over Titans
It seems as though Houston will not have the services of CJ Stroud here. As great as Houston’s defense is, that has to make you pause and think. I used Houston in Week 4 at home against Tennessee and I’m guessing that a lot of people did.
Mills did orchestrate that comeback win against the Jaguars last week, so there’s some confidence in that. This is also a top-five defense in yards per play allowed and a group that has allowed points on a league-low 25.3% of opponents’ drives. They have 15 takeaways and have 10 interceptions against nine passing touchdowns. Mills, Stroud, whoever, the defense can absolutely win this game for Houston.
I believe PoolGenius is assuming Stroud plays with their 73% win expectancy. The only game higher left for Houston with a very tough schedule is 75% against the Raiders in Week 16.
NFL Week 11 Survivor Pick
Steelers (-5.5) over Bengals
A little risky to be sure, especially with Pittsburgh’s collapse against this team a few weeks back, but the best of the options available to me given who I’ve used thus far and the notion of holding Baltimore back. Per PoolGenius, this is the best spot remaining to take the Steelers at 66%, as they may only be favored two more times – vs. Miami and at Cleveland, with those games at 62% and 59%, respectively.
The Cincinnati defense continues to be beyond awful, as they’ve allowed at least 27 points in each of their last eight games and the only time they held a team under that number was the Browns in Week 1. Pittsburgh is struggling a bit with losses in three of the last four, but the win was over the Colts and that shows the ceiling that this team still has.
Joe Flacco has been a top-five QB in EPA+CPOE Composite with the Bengals, but in that same span, Aaron Rodgers has been a top-10 guy. Flacco has outplayed him in most metrics, but the Bengals are still 1-3 in Flacco’s starts, including a loss to the hapless Jets. Mike Tomlin hasn’t gone 0-2 in the regular season against a division opponent since 2021.
I have to imagine the Steelers make the right adjustments. There are no holiday considerations. It may be an uncomfortable play, but with a lot of the top teams for Week 11 used and a lot to think about with the Ravens, the risk is in line with the reward.
Pick: Steelers
Teams Used: Broncos, Cardinals, Seahawks, Texans, Bills, Packers, Patriots, Falcons, Rams, Panthers
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