NFL Week 12 Best Bets, Picks and Predictions from Wes Reynolds:

Here are my NFL Week 12 best bets:

 

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Detroit Lions (-7.5; 50) at Indianapolis Colts

The juggernaut that is the Detroit Lions continues as they have the best record in the NFC at 9-1 and are also 8-2 ATS and coming off a 52-6 victory over a Jacksonville team with a lame-duck coach and a backup QB. Therefore, the extra tax is in the number this week.

Indianapolis got back on track last week with a 28-27 victory in New Jersey over the Jets. Anthony Richardson played one of the best games of his young career, going 20-for-30 for 272 and two touchdown passes along with two touchdown runs. Shane Steichen called a good game and got Richardson on the move to make plays down the field.

The Colts’ defense held the Jets to just 253 yards last week and this week is a major step up in class. However, the much-criticized (including by me) Gus Bradley ‘Cover 3 zone’ is actually the best way to play against Lions QB Jared Goff. While Goff has shredded man coverage this season, he has had struggles against zone with just a 7:9 TD:INT ratio, including five picks against Houston two weeks ago.

The Lions’ defense is also starting to get banged up, with LBs Alex Anzalone going on IR this week and fellow LB Jalen Reeves-Maybin also on IR. CB Ennis Rakestraw is OUT, and fellow corner Terrion Arnold is also questionable.

Detroit is priced at the peak of the market, and this is a tricky spot with the annual home Thanksgiving game coming up against a Colts team looking to save their season.

NFL Week 12 Best Bet: Indianapolis Colts +7.5

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (-8; 40.5)

Tennessee failed to cover yet another spread last week and the Titans are now 1-9 ATS on the season. Last week, they played Minnesota pretty much even but committed 13 penalties for 91 yards and seven of those penalties gave first downs to the Vikings.

Lost in the Titans’ woes is that Will Levis has actually played fairly well in his last two starts.

Meanwhile, Houston is off a 34-10 victory in Dallas on Monday Night Football in which the final score was more lopsided than the actual game.

The Texans are still not used to big favorite roles as they are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games as favorites of 5 points or more. CJ Stroud is also just 6-10 ATS as a favorite in his career.

Tennessee’s defense ranks 11th in DVOA and first in passing yards allowed. Houston ranks 31st (only ahead of Cleveland) in early down success rate.

The Titans should hang around here.

NFL Week 12 Best Bet: Tennessee Titans +8

BEST OF THE REST
NY Giants +6 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Las Vegas Raiders +6 vs. Denver Broncos
Minnesota Vikings/Chicago Bears UNDER 39.5

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