Survivor
Some big favorites look to be obvious choices for NFL Week 12 Survivor picks. It may not take a whole lot of analysis or thought this week for your entry or entries, but that’s all dependent on the rules of your pool. Circa Survivor players have some tougher decisions to make and those in the inaugural Circa Survivor Grandissimo could see a resolution and a winner this weekend or next.
Favorites held up pretty well last week. In terms of Circa Survivor, the Falcons were the biggest choice to go down and they were the sixth-most popular selection with 43 picks. The Patriots were a very popular Thursday night pick and the Texans managed to narrowly hold up against the Titans. Pittsburgh, my pick in the article, put some distance in the game in the second half to avoid a sweat.
This week is a big one. They all are going forward. But, this week is a big one because the first holiday “week” in Circa Survivor is coming up with Thanksgiving. I’ll be doing this article on Wednesday next week to account for that, posting both my Thursday pick for the holiday and my Week 13 pick so that those who have more traditional rules are also covered.
Like I’ve said every week, I’m still treating this like an entry, even though it is not a survivor. I’m also trying to stay cognizant of the teams still available to those who are alive so the analysis is relevant and potentially useful.
PoolGenius has great NFL Survivor Tools and also NFL Pick ‘Em Tools for you to check out. For this season, they also have Circa Survivor tools set up to account for the holiday weeks.
Week 12 NFL Survivor Teams to Consider
Lions (-10) over Giants
The first of three double-digit favorites leads off the considerations. If you are not in a contest with Circa Survivor rules, then this part isn’t really for you and you can take Detroit if you want. If you do have to contend with the Circa Survivor format, the Lions play on both holidays – Thanksgiving and Christmas. There are eight teams up for selection on Thanksgiving and only six on Christmas. The Lions, along with the Cowboys and Chiefs, play on both of them.
To me, they are off-limits. Even though Green Bay at Detroit on Thanksgiving and Detroit at Minnesota may not seem palatable on the holidays, it is important to have as many options as possible. Injuries happen. Things go down. Fortunately, there are other options that are as good or better than the Lions this week. That won’t always be the case with this format, but it is this week and you can afford to hold them back.
PoolGenius has the Lions with an 84% win probability.
Seahawks (-13) over Titans
As mentioned above, I’m treating this like an entry, even though things haven’t gone perfectly. I used the Seahawks back in Week 3, so they’d be unavailable to me if I was running an 11-0 record. I feel like a lot of people have probably deployed Seattle by this point as well, so it’s probably not all that great to use them as the pick.
If you haven’t used them, I can’t fault you for going that route here. There are some mild concerns, like an early kick in Nashville off of a rivalry game against the Rams that meant a lot to both teams, especially Seattle. But, the Titans are terrible, Cam Ward isn’t playing well, and the Seahawks are a metrics darling on both sides of the ball. It’s a good bounce back opportunity for the team and for Sam Darnold, who was really bad last week against LA.
Again, the Seahawks aren’t an option for me in this article, but they can be an option for you if you still have them and there are zero holiday concerns with them.
PoolGenius has the Seahawks at 87% win probability, easily their highest remaining.
Ravens (-13.5) over Jets
Those in traditional Survivor contests are probably going to go this route and take Baltimore. They are probably the best pick on the board. I highly doubt that the two above teams lose, but the Lions do have a short week with a rivalry game coming up and the Seahawks have those travel and early start considerations.
Baltimore does have the Bengals on Thursday night, which is why I’m holding them back for the purposes of this article and for anybody with Circa Survivor rules. Depending on how Joe Burrow looks in his return, if he returns this weekend, this might be the best pick of the bunch on Thanksgiving/Black Friday. I think that the Eagles are another strong consideration and a good one to have at your disposal.
But, I’d prefer to have the options. Now, of course, you can argue, “What if Lamar Jackson gets hurt?” Well, fair question, especially since he seems to be hurt already anyway. Not only is Turkey Day a thought, but also moving forward, it doesn’t suck to have teams like the Ravens and Eagles available this late in the contest.
Either way, this all depends on the rules you are playing with. PoolGenius has the Ravens tops at 88% win probability. If you don’t have Circa Survivor rules, roll with them.
NFL Week 12 Survivor Pick
49ers (-7) over Panthers
Monday Night Football here, so it could be a long, difficult sweat on Sunday waiting for this game to kick off while hoping that one (or more) of those three double-digit favorites takes a nosedive. But, let’s walk through the process here and why I think San Francisco is a good option, even with three bigger favorites.
San Francisco is about as healthy as they’ve been, as Brock Purdy looked solid in his return and everybody except Brandon Aiyuk should be available at wide receiver. The Niners have been playing without some major defensive pieces already, but Kyle Shanahan and his assistants keep working through it.
The Panthers needed overtime to win a division game against the Falcons and this will be just their second road game west of the Mississippi for this season. They lost 27-22 to the Cardinals earlier this season in a game where they only had 4.6 yards per play. This is the 12th straight week of action for Carolina, as they don’t have a bye until the first week of December. It’s the same for the 49ers, but they aren’t traveling for this game and only had to go to Glendale last week after being at home the week prior.
Ultimately, this is a good team in a pretty good spot and it allows me to protect my teams for the holidays. Also, while the 49ers are a great pick off the bye against the Titans in Week 15, so are the Eagles and Jaguars, so I have options there and fewer holiday concerns to think about. Again, if you don’t have the holiday “weeks”, the 49ers probably aren’t your best option. But, I’ve used Circa Survivor rules all season and won’t stop now.
The 49ers are 73% to win per PoolGenius.
Pick: 49ers
Teams Used: Broncos, Cardinals, Seahawks, Texans, Bills, Packers, Patriots, Falcons, Rams, Panthers, Steelers
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