NFL Week 13 best bets from the T Shoe Index


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NFL Week 13 Best Bets from the T Shoe Index

There’s just over a month left in the NFL season, there is still a lot up in the air in terms of playoff and divisional positioning, who’s playing quarterback for whom, and which teams are going to pack it in and prepare for the NFL draft. Aaron Rodgers has been re-activated onto the practice squad for the Jets, just a couple months after tearing his achilles tendon, which will be a fascinating storyline down the stretch, as the Jets sit at 4-7 heading into December. 

Joe Flacco has been named QB2 for the Browns, which could potentially lead to a start, given the injuries piling up for Cleveland. Plenty of headlines, plenty of uncertainty to sort through from a betting perspective, so I expect to have a light betting card the rest of the way. Thankfully, I’ve got my T Shoe Index to help point me in the right direction from a numbers perspective to try to cash some winners.

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Green Bay Packers vs Kansas City Chiefs (-6), O/U 42.5

I was kicking myself for not backing the Packers on Thanksgiving Day, as TSI strongly indicated that was a play, but I felt like every time I’d trusted them this year they had badly let me down. Bad call, T Shoe. However, I’m going to pull the trigger on them this week, hosting the Chiefs at Lambeau in primetime Sunday night. 

If there’s one place I wouldn’t want to be a road team in primetime in December, it’s Green Bay. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs will be facing an uphill battle in this one, and I’m going to put my trust (and dollars) in Jordan Love and the Packers to keep it within the number, as TSI projects the Chiefs as just a 2-point favorite here, so there’s plenty of value on the number, and I just think Green Bay is trending positively right now to warrant belief in that projection. Make no mistake, Kansas City has my number one rated defense, and 14th-rated offense, while the Packers are 12th and 17th, respectively, so the right team is favored here, but 6 is too many points for the Chiefs to be laying, so I’m taking the dog.

Pick: Packers +6 (Play to +4.5)

New Orleans Saints vs Detroit Lions (-4.5), O/U 47

Speaking of the Packers on Thanksgiving, the Lions probably could not have looked worse in that game. This would generally be a bounce back spot where I’d be looking to buy the Lions, but it seems the betting market is thinking the same, as this line is moving in favor of Detroit. However, TSI projects the Lions as just 1.5-point favorites here on the road, and the Saints are in a bounce back situation themselves after losing by 9 to the Falcons last week. The Saints’ offense is 19th and its defense is 20th in the TSI, while Detroit boasts the No. 4 offense but just the 25th-rated defense, which should allow this Saints offense to do enough to hang around in this game. 

Both teams are looking for a win after last week, but the Saints should be the more desperate team here, as they’re tied for the division lead with Atlanta, while Detroit has a comfortable 3 game lead in the loss column in the NFC North. I’ll take a desperate home dog getting 4.5.

Pick: Saints +4.5 (Play to +3.5)

To learn more about who I am or what my T Shoe Index is, be sure to read my introduction on and check out my free NFL Guide with ratings, projections and win probabilities for every single game this season and follow me on X, @TShoeIndex.