NFL Survivor Picks

We’ve reached Week 13 of the NFL season and that means Thanksgiving Week. That also means that those in Circa Survivor or a pool that uses similar rules have to make two picks this week.

One of the biggest wrinkles in that contest, and ones like it, is this week. The other is that Christmas is its own week. There are four games and eight teams to pick from for Thanksgiving and Black Friday, so I’m putting the Survivor article out early this week to accommodate. I said at the start of the season that I’d follow the Circa blueprint and this is how to follow through on that mandate.

 

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That means we’ll have two picks in the article this week. However, if you are in a traditional Survivor contest, this will still be valuable to you, as I’ll look at Thursday and Friday in a vacuum and do the same with Sunday and Monday with considerations and, ultimately, an official pick.

Once again, we’ll consult the Survivor tools over at PoolGenius and look at this week’s options.

Thanksgiving/Black Friday Teams To Consider

Kansas City Chiefs (-13) over Las Vegas Raiders

The Chiefs were still available with my hypothetical entry, though I was “eliminated” a long time ago with this article and also with the Survivor entries I was involved with. Those with the Chiefs this week are sitting very pretty, as they are the biggest favorite on the board and will face either Desmond Ridder or Aidan O’Connell with Gardner Minshew’s broken collarbone serving as a season-ending injury.

Somehow, someway, the Chiefs will find a way to make this a huge sweat in a one-score game, much like they did last week with the Panthers. They’ll be favored a lot the rest of the way, but this is their unquestioned biggest favorite role remaining and a great time to use them if you still have them, whether you have to use them for Thanksgiving/Black Friday or just want to use them for Week 13.

The Chiefs are the most likely winners this week with a probability of 85% per PoolGenius.

Thanksgiving/Black Friday Pick

Detroit Lions (-10.5) over Chicago Bears

This appears riskier on the surface than the Chiefs, especially because the Bears have done some great things on offense under interim OC Thomas Brown. But, it’s never a bad thing to have a double-digit favorite at your disposal. I haven’t used the Lions yet in this article, so they’re fair game, as I intended to save them for the holiday.

The Lions have won nine in a row and six of them by at least two scores. What has been most impressive in my mind has been the defense in the absence of Aidan Hutchinson. It was thought that the Lions would struggle on that side of the ball without their chief pass rusher. He was hurt back in Week 6. Week 7 inclusive through Week 12, the Lions are second in the NFL in EPA/play on defense and actually have the best Dropback EPA against.

Oh, and for good measure, they’re also second in Rushing Success Rate against.

The Lions are second on the win probability chart at 81% per PoolGenius.

Thanksgiving Survivor Pick: Lions

Week 13 NFL Survivor Teams to Consider

Washington Commanders (-5.5) over Tennessee Titans

Sunday and Monday are a little trickier here in Week 13. The Commanders have dropped three in a row and just lost as a double-digit favorite against the Cowboys, but they are still one of the bigger favorites on the board. The Titans scored a nice upset win over Houston and are riding a little bit of a high.

As good as the Titans run defense has been lately, the pass defense has been atrocious. Since I already had it pulled up, Tennessee is 21st in Dropback EPA and Dropback Success Rate on defense from Week 7 through Week 12. That seems like a bad fit against Jayden Daniels, who has been on the wrong end in the last three games and a lot of it has to do with the offensive line. Daniels has been sacked 10 times in the last three games.

But, the Titans only have 24 sacks for 64 yards, which ranks 25th in sacks and 31st in sack yardage. They are 29th in Pressure% per Pro-Football-Reference. It should be a “get right game” for Daniels and the Commanders.

Washington’s remaining schedule is Saints*, Eagles, Falcons, Cowboys*, with the starred games on the road. I think this is the best spot to take them if you haven’t yet.

PoolGenius lists the Commanders at 69% to win.

Houston Texans (-5) over Jacksonville Jaguars

Here’s another pill that is tough to swallow, but a consideration nonetheless. The Texans do have their problems, but the Jaguars, who are coming off of the bye, have had many more of them thus far. We still don’t know this early in the week if Trevor Lawrence can give it a go or not, so it could be Mac Jones. Jones is 31-of-51 for just 249 yards with zero TD and three picks in his two starts.

As much of a mess as Houston seems to be offensively, this is still a solid defensive team for the most part. We didn’t see it against the Titans last week, but that was more of the exception than the norm.

Houston’s remaining schedule is Dolphins, Chiefs*, Ravens, Titans*, so you’ll either have to save them for a revenge game that may not matter given the playoff picture and the AFC South standings or take them here because taking them against the other three opponents seems like an even harder pill to swallow.

I actually said last week that I was saving the Texans for Week 13. That performance against Tennessee gave me enough pause to not use them this week.

The Texans are 67% to win per PoolGenius.

Buffalo Bills (-7) over San Francisco 49ers

Coming into the season, I don’t think many people would have imagined that the Bills would be playing the 49ers and be the biggest non-Thanksgiving/Black Friday favorite of the week. Brock Purdy is as questionable as questionable can get and it may not matter if he starts because of the litany of injuries for the 49ers.

They are battered and bruised at basically every position group it seems. And the Bills are coming off of a bye. Josh Allen is playing at a tremendously high level and the Bills need to keep stacking wins in hopes of leapfrogging the Chiefs for home-field in the AFC playoffs. Oh, yeah, and the 49ers might have to play in a snowstorm and, at a minimum, extreme cold for a second straight road game.

The tough part here is that the Bills have Rams*, Lions*, Patriots, Jets, Patriots* left, so there are basically 2-3 chances to use the Bills in which they’ll be a bigger favorite than this, unless Week 18 doesn’t matter.

I think they’re worth saving, but they are 74% per PoolGenius.

Denver Broncos (-5.5) over Cleveland Browns

I took the Broncos back in Week 8, so I’ve used them, but I’m not sure how many people have. Cleveland’s spirited effort in a snowstorm against the Steelers was absolutely the exception and not the norm. It looked like most of the team had quit in the second half against New Orleans, but the pure, unadulterated hatred for the Steelers was more than enough to get back to work.

They don’t have the same carrot dangling in front of them this week. The Broncos may be 7-5, but their losses are the Chiefs, Ravens, Chargers, Steelers, and Seahawks, who would all be playoff teams right now. Technically, three of them are division leaders. The Browns are not a playoff team. Not a division leader. Not any good.

The Broncos have the Colts, Chargers*, Bengals, Chiefs after this. I don’t hate using them against Indy off the bye if they’re an option. This is a good defense and Bo Nix is running the offense well. Cleveland has the rest advantage, but also has to go to Denver and play in elevation as a team whose effort level is up for debate each week.

The Broncos are 68% to win according to PoolGenius, the third-highest probability of teams that play on Sunday/Monday.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6) over Carolina Panthers

This is the most attractive “consideration” of the week. The Bucs are on the road with Mike Evans back against the Panthers. But, the Dave Canales factor is enough to keep me away. And, frankly, Bryce Young has been playing pretty well.

Here’s the other factor – the Bucs host the Raiders next week. Las Vegas is a mess. Antonio Pierce is clearly not an NFL head coach and the Raiders have major QB issues. I’ll take Tampa Bay next week. They’re also a good option in Week 17 when they host the Panthers.

This week, they are 67% per PoolGenius.

Week 13 NFL Survivor Pick

Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) over Arizona Cardinals

I’m actually going off-script a little bit here to go with the Vikings. I was disgusted by what we saw last week from the Cardinals offense coming out of the bye week. Kyler Murray threw for 285 yards, but was sacked five times and the Cardinals had zero running game to speak of with 3.5 yards per carry.

Defensively, they played well, but this is a stiffer test in my mind. Minnesota is too good of a team not to use in this type of contest. I do think they’ll be a bigger favorite over the Bears in two weeks, but, ironically, the Cardinals at home against the Patriots are a better pick then. Injuries happen and maybe that lookahead pick goes sideways, as the Cardinals and Vikings are pretty clearly the two best options that week as of now. But, I’ll take my chances. The Falcons on the road against the Raiders actually look pretty palatable, too.

I think this is the best spot to take Minnesota and a pick that is off the board a little. They are 64% to win per PoolGenius.

Week 13 Survivor Pick: Vikings

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