Survivor
Well, it’s time to find out if all of the planning was in vain or not. Week 13 NFL Survivor is one of the two that has loomed large regardless of the games in question and the teams in play. Those who are in more traditional Survivor contests simply have business as usual, but those in Circa Survivor or with that set of rules have been thinking about this week for a long time.
Thanksgiving is its own “week”, a major wrinkle that has been in place since the first year of the contest back in 2021. That means eight teams are available for the Thanksgiving “week”, as the Black Friday game counts as well. Christmas is its own “week” as well, which we’ll get to in less than a month, but only six teams are available there. Furthermore, three teams – Cowboys, Chiefs, Lions – play on both holiday “weeks”.
Even though there have been some really good opportunities to use those three teams and the others in action on the two holidays, it is vital to keep as many options as possible in the event of injuries or a season that doesn’t go as you expected it to go. With the number of entries, the contest not going the distance is highly unlikely, so it takes going 20-0 over 18 NFL weeks to win. That means planning for exactly this moment.
Rather than write two separate articles, I’ll combine Thanksgiving and Week 13. My article “entry” has already lost, but I’ve been aware of the holidays throughout in hopes of giving the most relevant advice that I can. I’ve also been playing with the Circa Survivor rules in mind. If you are not playing with those sorts of rules, then the first part of this week’s write-up isn’t for you. But, if you want to join Circa Survivor next season, it will shed some light on the thought process of being in it for the long haul.
PoolGenius has great NFL Survivor Tools and also NFL Pick ‘Em Tools for you to check out. For this season, they also have Circa Survivor tools set up to account for the holiday weeks.
Thanksgiving/Black Friday Teams to Consider
Eagles (-7) over Bears
The Black Friday game features the Bears and Eagles, as Philly lines up against a first-year head coach in Ben Johnson and a second-year QB in Caleb Williams. The Eagles don’t quite feel like themselves, as they beat the Packers 10-7 and the Lions 16-9 before blowing a 21-point lead against the Cowboys to drop a 24-21 decision to their hated rivals.
Up until last week, it felt like the Eagles defense had been playing well, but they gave up 473 yards to Dallas and Chicago’s offense is really coming along nicely for Johnson. The Eagles have also racked up just over 300 yards per game on offense in their three games since the bye.
But, you still see the respect that the Eagles have as a touchdown favorite against a Bears team that has the exact same record at 8-3. Chicago is a regression candidate, though, as an 8-3 team that is -3 in point differential and Philly is easily the best defense that the Bears have seen in a while, if not all season long.
PoolGenius lists the Eagles at 75% as the most likely candidate to win of the eight Thanksgiving “week” teams.
Thanksgiving/Black Friday Survivor Pick
Ravens (-7) over Bengals
The return of Joe Burrow throws something of a wrench into this pick, as it sure felt like Baltimore would be a sure thing to be the Thanksgiving pick when he went down early in the season. The Eagles are worthy of some consideration, but I’m backing a different bird here.
It hasn’t been pretty the entire way, but Baltimore has reeled off five wins in a row since the bye, crawling out of a 1-5 hole to actually now have a winning record. Clearly the task at hand becomes more difficult with the difference between Burrow and Joe Flacco, but there’s probably some rust to shake off before we see the Burrow that we’re used to seeing. Also, Burrow not at his best looks to be a huge problem.
This is one of the worst defenses we’ve ever seen. Cincinnati has allowed nearly 33 points per game and 6.3 yards per play. Only the 49ers (13) have fewer sacks (15) and only the Giants (5.9), Bills (5.3), and Bears (5.2) have allowed more yards per carry than the Bengals (5.1). From an advanced metrics standpoint, Cincy is far and away the worst defense by EPA/play and has allowed a Success Rate against over 50%, which is a metric based on yards gained relative to down and distance.
Burrow might spark the offense, but Flacco’s already done that and Cincy still can’t win games because of how awful the defense is. PoolGenius has the Ravens at 74% to win and that’s plenty good enough for me.
Pick: Ravens
Week 13 Survivor Teams to Consider
Seahawks (-12.5) over Vikings
Those who have Seattle available are looking pretty good this week. I do not with this “entry”, as they were used earlier this season. A lot of people probably used the Seahawks last week against the Titans on the road, or in Week 10 against Arizona, or in any of the other spots to use them. Week 3 against the Saints at home was where I deployed them.
I don’t really have to get into the numbers and I can’t imagine that they are an option for many entries. What I can tell you is that this is easily the best remaining spot to use them if you haven’t. PoolGenius has the Seahawks at 83% to win and their other two games over 60% are on the road (at ATL W14, at CAR W17).
Rams (-10.5) over Panthers
The Rams have to shake off the holiday gluttony to travel all the way out to Charlotte and play an early kick against the Panthers. Of course, as we know, the Panthers just played on Monday Night Football and had to fly back from San Francisco, so Tuesday was pretty much a waste, leaving them one fewer practice day and one fewer recovery day. I would argue that goes a long way in neutralizing whatever situational/scheduling advantage that they may have had.
With Philly’s loss to Detroit, the Rams took over as the Super Bowl favorites. A lot has been made of the season that Matthew Stafford is having, along with Davante Adams and all of the other offensive pieces and parts, but this is also the No. 1 defense in the NFL by EPA/play. Carolina has made some strides in that department this season, but they’re still 24th after finishing 32nd last season.
However, much like I said with Seattle, it’s unlikely that the Rams are still an option. They’re a 9-2 team and have had opportunities to be used, though maybe not as good as this one. Many probably used them as a “free space” in Week 9 against the Saints at home. If you still have ‘em, they’re as good as anybody this week.
PoolGenius puts them at 83% to win, but they do have four more games of 70% win probability or more if you did want to save them for another week.
Dolphins (-6) over Saints
Want to walk on the wild side in Week 13? Can I interest you in the Miami Dolphins? They are coming off of the bye after going overseas to beat the Commanders 16-13 in overtime and have won three of their last four games. Since the embarrassing debacle against the Browns, Miami has only lost to the surging Ravens on a short week.
They are only 13th in offensive EPA/play and 17th in defensive EPA/play in that span, obviously with their bye week as one in which they couldn’t put up any stats at all. But, they’ve been basically an average-ish team, which is way more than we can say about the early part of the season.
The Saints were beaten by Kirk Cousins and the Falcons last week, so they are not on extra rest. That was also the best that they could muster in their game off of a bye. It goes without saying that this is the best, and arguably the only, spot to take Miami. Remember, you have to take 20 of the 32 teams in Circa Survivor and 18 of the 32 in a traditional Survivor format. Sometimes that means lowering your standards a little. Could taking the Dolphins here help you save a better team for later? It could, especially if you’ve emptied the clip on most of the good teams already.
The Dolphins are 67% to win per PoolGenius.
Patriots (-7.5) over Giants
The NFL may be scripted, but it has been fun seeing a new nominee for Best Actor in a Drama Series with Jameis Winston as QB1 for the Giants. It remains to be seen if Winston’s nomination drops down to Best Supporting Actor since Jaxson Dart is still in concussion protocol, but may clear in time for Monday Night Football.
Either way, the Patriots are on a nine-game heater and have a bye after this week, so they can put it all out there. They also played the Bengals on extra rest after beating the Jets on Thursday the week prior. For not having a bye until Week 14, this is a fairly fresh football team. The Giants will continue to be without their best offensive player in Malik Nabers and their tone-setting Crash Test Dummy Cam Skattebo for the duration of the season. It’s hard to see the Patriots slipping up here. Maybe if they didn’t have a bye and a chance to bury Buffalo came next week, but they look like a good pick for now, as the Giants also just fired their DC Shane Bowen after firing Brian Daboll a few weeks ago.
PoolGenius has the Patriots at 78%, easily their best remaining win probability.
Honorable mentions to the Broncos and 49ers as other options.
Week 13 NFL Survivor Pick
Chargers (-9.5) over Raiders
This has been circled as my pick this week for a while. The Raiders are a complete and utter disaster at 2-9 with five straight losses and no semblance of an offense. The Browns basically haven’t had a QB all season and they have still scored 21 more points than Las Vegas. Even the Titans have outscored the Raiders.
While I’m not enamored with the 7-4 Chargers, they are a top-10 pass defense and that helps because they should be leading throughout this game. The running game has been disappointing, though Omarion Hampton and Najee Harris being hurt hasn’t helped. Nevertheless, Justin Herbert has been solid and he’s able to move around and run a bit, which is helpful. The Chargers move forward and that’s what matters, scoring on 44.5% of their possessions.
LA won the first meeting 20-9 here in Vegas and held a 100-yard edge and had three takeaways. They’re coming off of the bye and had scored at least 24 points in each of their previous five games before a no-show traveling east for the second time in three weeks against the Jaguars. They should be just fine here in the friendly confines, where they’ve only lost to the Colts this season.
PoolGenius has the Chargers at 80% win probability.
Pick: Chargers
Teams Used: Broncos, Cardinals, Seahawks, Texans, Bills, Packers, Patriots, Falcons, Rams, Panthers, Steelers, 49ers
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