NFL Week 13 Thanksgiving Day Best Bets and Props from Mike Somich:

Normally we talk about the week that was in this spot every week, but it’s Thanksgiving week, which means we have midweek football, so let’s jump into my best bets for Thursday!

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-10; 48)

Thanksgiving kicks off in Detroit where the Lions will try to make amends for last year’s loss to the Packers in this spot. This year, it’s the Bears coming to town off a tough loss to division rival Minnesota.

 

***Top NFL Resources***

*It's the VSiN Black Friday Special. Take advantage of the largest savings of the year by upgrading to VSiN Pro. For a limited time, you can secure Pro access until May 1st for only $60.*

Let’s be clear, this Lions team has been a truck all season. All of the possible “flat spots” on the schedule have been Lions blowout wins and, because of last year, I expect a highly motivated Detroit team on Thursday. At the current number, it’s Lions or pass for me, but I like the total more.

The Bears defense, which some considered to be a top-5 unit heading into the season has underwhelmed this season. They are not necessarily terrible at anything, but they also do not excel. The largest weakness was highlighted last week when cornerback Jaylon Johnson was tied up with Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson and the rest of the secondary simply could not handle Jordan Addison (make a mental note of this one, we will be coming back to it). Detroit should have no issue moving the ball between the 20s and has the running backs to make red zone trips count.

The Bears offense has looked much better in two weeks under new coordinator Thomas Brown. All of a sudden Caleb Williams is running and looks more confident with the football. Many of the USC plays from the last two seasons have shown up on tape and the results are positive. The Lions defense has looked great on the surface the last couple of weeks, but metrics-wise, they are due for some regression.

All of this points to a feast of points to kick off the day, let’s look to the Over here.

Week 13 NFL Best Bet: Bears-Lions Over 48

Miami Dolphins at Green Bay Packers (-3; 47)

I talked in length about this one on “Ready, Set, Bet” on Sunday with Matt Brown when we were running through the early Week 13 lines. This total opened as high as 48 and, honestly, I’m shocked it is still at 47.

Miami’s defense, which has struggled at times this season, is coming off of three straight very good efforts and over that time edge rusher Chop Robinson has really started to emerge. The water gets tougher this week versus Green Bay’s offensive line, but Miami should be able to create pressure. The Dolphins boast the 10th-best run defense in the NFL, which should suit them well in this weather.

And speaking of the weather, it’s going to be very cold. It’s expected to be in the high 20s with a feels-like temperature closer to 10 degrees. That is not great for a Miami offense that is built on timing and speed. Coach Mike McDaniel has talked about how much more important the run game will be this week. which should only push this game more to the Under. Jump on the total before it takes money as we get closer to game time.

Week 13 NFL Best Bet: Dolphins-Packers Under 47

Prop Plays

Cooper Rush Over 205.5 Passing Yards

Let’s run back one of the winners from last week and go back to Cooper Rush’s Over passing prop. He has passed for 375 yards and 247 yards in his two starts and now gets the Giants, who will be keyed up to stop the run. While this may not be pretty, Rush will get his opportunity to throw and this number is about 20 yards short of what it should be.

Jameson Williams Over 48.5 Receiving Yards

In the game breakdown, I mentioned the issues in the Bears secondary outside of CB1. With Jaylon Johnson trying to lock down Amon-Ra St. Brown, it opens things up for Jameson Williams to have a big game. He’s gone over this number in three straight games and seven of nine games this season. Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson will be looking at that Addison performance and salivating before he smells Thanksgiving dinner. He’s going to cook up multiple plus situations for Williams here.

Other Plays:

Roschon Johnson Anytime TD +240
Sam LaPorta Anytime TD +220

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR