NFL Week 14 Best Bets from the T Shoe Index
Another week, another QB injury in the NFL. Trevor Lawrence is the latest casualty to injury in an overtime loss to the Bengals and AFC Offensive Player of the Week, Jake Browning. The injuries are piling up league-wide, making it both difficult to get precise ratings on teams and easier to find directional value on teams when there are huge discrepancies between my T Shoe Index projection and oddsmakers’ lines.
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For instance, TSI projects a 45-point total in Browns/Jags this week, but oddsmakers have the over/under at just 30.5. While from an absolute error standpoint, 30.5 might be closer to reality, we can find directional value to the over using TSI. The season is flying by and we’ll soon be having to handicap which starters are going to be resting for the playoffs and which teams will be motivated to try to secure playoff spots; the “art” vs “science” approach I’ve mentioned before. For now, I’m going to err more on the side of the science and trust TSI to lead us to some winners this week.
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Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions (-3.5), O/U 41.5
I usually don’t love to play an over in a divisional game, but for these two teams I will make an exception. TSI projects 49 points in this matchup, which puts the Lions’ fourth-ranked offense against the No. 30 defense of the Bears. Even on the flip side, the Bears should be able to contribute to this total despite having just the No. 22 offense in TSI ratings, because the Lions’ defense is No. 25. I think the spread is pretty spot on, but I like these teams to put up some points en route to a close game.
Pick: Over 41.5 (Play to 43)
Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) vs Philadelphia Eagles, O/U 51
I’m going out on a TSI-sized limb here; the Cowboys, whom I’ve dubbed “Penn State of the NFL” for their tendency to beat up on bad teams and no-show against good ones, are 3.5-point favorites against the Eagles, who just got destroyed by the 49ers. The Eagles, despite racking up wins all season, have been over-valued by the market according to TSI for much of the season. TSI ranks Dallas as the third-best team in the league, while the Eagles are No. 8. Offensively, the Cowboys are No. 2 going against the No. 20 defense of Philly, and on the other side of the ball we’ve got the No. 5 Eagles’ offense going against the No. 15 Dallas defense. We could see some offensive fireworks with those matchups, but I’m going to play the side and lay the points with the Cowboys.
Pick: Cowboys -3.5 (Play to -4)
To learn more about who I am or what my T Shoe Index is, be sure to read my introduction on VSiN.com and check out my free NFL Guide with ratings, projections and win probabilities for every single game this season and follow me on X, @TShoeIndex.
