NFL Week 14:

Bye weeks are back in style, as the final six teams that haven’t had a week off yet will get that in NFL Week 14. We’ve got two potential bangers in primetime this week and a Sunday slate that may shed a little more light on the playoff picture in the NFC. The playoff picture in the AFC seems pretty cut and dry already, but this is the NFL and anything can happen.

One note is that 10 of the 13 games feature home favorites. It feels like we’ve seen a lot of road favorites this season, but the home teams will be the ones with the expectations in Week 14.

 

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Here is the Week 14 NFL Odds Report:

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-3.5, 51)

Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Amazon)

After playing on Thanksgiving, the Packers and Lions are on the traditional amount of rest for Thursday Night Football at Ford Field. The Lions were as high as 5.5 or 6 in the lookahead market last week, but it appears that their issues with the Bears coupled with the Packers’ strong effort against the freezing Dolphins have altered this line. I’m a little surprised to see Detroit punished to this degree, as they had 5.9 yards per play and led 16-0 at half and 23-7 entering the fourth before going into a shell. I guess we’ll find out on Thursday night if the line adjustment was warranted. Or maybe before that if bettors drive the number back up.

Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings (-5.5, 45.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)

The Kirk Cousins Revenge Game! The Falcons lost and the Vikings won last week, though neither game was all that pleasing to the eye. The Vikings survived against the Cardinals, but the Falcons lost due to four interceptions from Cousins and a missed Younghoe Koo field goal. The awful Cousins performance also featured an historical outlier. He was the first QB not to throw a pass at least 36 mph (min 20 attempts) in the NFL’s NextGenStats era (source). DraftKings actually had Minnesota -5.5, but Superbook opened -3.5 on this one last week.

New Orleans Saints (-5, 39.5) at New York Giants

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)

The Saints came up short against the Rams, but market confidence is clearly not high in either Tommy DeVito or Drew Lock. The Giants were down 27-10 to the Cowboys heading into the fourth quarter on Thanksgiving, as Lock was far and away the team’s leading rusher, but was sacked six times. This is the second time the Saints have been a road favorite this season. The last time was Week 9 at Carolina as a 7-point favorite and they won 23-22. The lookahead line here was -4, so there’s been a slight adjustment.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-4.5, 40)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)

This line is assuming that Trevor Lawrence doesn’t play, as he was severely concussed in the game against the Texans. The Titans, who gave up 42 points to the Commanders, were No. 2 in total defense entering Week 13, but they were shredded on the ground and through the air by Washington. But, Jacksonville is absolutely not on that level. That said, there were some silver linings, as Jones led two TD drives in the fourth quarter. This line was mostly 2.5 in the lookahead market, so Lawrence, as of now, is about a 2.5-point adjustment. I’m not sure I agree with that, but who wants to lay this Tennessee price?

Las Vegas Raiders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7.5, 44.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)

We haven’t really seen any adjustment to this line from where it was. The Buccaneers did fail to cover against the Panthers and Baker Mayfield was hurt in the process, but Carolina has played a lot better lately and QB1 returned to the game. The Raiders had a chance to beat the Chiefs, but botched a snap while trying to get into field goal range for a potential game-winning kick. KC survived, as they always seem to do. And now the Raiders make the long trek to the Sunshine State at 2-10 with eight straight losses and not much to play for. The Bucs will be very popular in teasers this week.

Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles (-13, 45.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)

The much improved Panthers came close, but did not get a victory cigar against the Bucs. Bryce Young played well and there is hope for the future, but the Panthers are still a two-score dog to the Eagles. Philadelphia knocked off Baltimore in a big game for both teams and a good litmus test. The Eagles will be very interested in Thursday’s game, as the Lions are 11-1 and the Packers are 10-2. Philly should move to 11-2 with a win and we could see a three-way tie in the race for the No. 1 seed.

I will say, I am surprised we didn’t see an adjustment here, as Philly beat a great team, but the Panthers looked way more competitive and competent than they have most weeks. I think we could see some Carolina interest early here.

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-6.5, 45.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)

The Dolphins have a little bit of extra rest and the Jets are being asked about QB changes again. Aaron Rodgers was not very good again in the matchup with the Seahawks, as the Jets scored 21 first-half points and then got shut out in the second half. Every game is a must-win for Miami moving forward and they’ve looked great on offense ever since Tua Tagovailoa came back. And you really have to wonder about the mindset of the Jets. This line was under 7 as of last week and still is.

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (-2.5, 45.5)

Sunday, 4:05 p.m ET (CBS)

The Seahawks and Cardinals just played last week with Arizona off the bye and it was a 16-6 decision for Seattle. Mike Macdonald’s defense has been spectacular of late and VSiN’s own Mike Somich sang their praises to me on Saturday night during an evening stint at the craps table. This game was basically a pick ‘em in Seattle, so it makes sense that the Cardinals would get the home-field boost and be favored, but I think this line is coming down. This is pretty much right where the lookahead line was.

Buffalo Bills (-4, 49) at Los Angeles Rams

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX)

The Bills go from snowy Buffalo to sunny Los Angeles to take on the Rams. The Rams went on the road and beat the Saints for a really nice victory to keep things very tight in the NFC West. The Bills are playing for seeding, as they already wrapped up the division and Thanksgiving just happened, but you do wonder about the scheduling spot here. They have another stiff test against the Lions on deck. But, they are clearly a better team than the Rams. I think this is one of the trickier handicaps of the week.

Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers (-5.5, 44)

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX)

The 49ers are still very much alive in the NFC West, but the task is getting harder and harder. Not only are the 49ers behind in the standings, but the injury bug has tested the depth and the depth has not played up to 49er standards. The Bears are on extra rest here with fewer beaten-up bodies and Caleb Williams has looked substantially better since Thomas Brown took over as OC. You also wonder if the Bears get a bump from the firing of Matt Eberflus, as that absolutely feels like a net positive for the team. 

Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5, 43.5)

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)

The market is finally fed up with KC’s BS. The Chiefs refuse to win games by margin and the close calls have caught up with them. Obviously the Chargers are a formidable foe, but this line has come down from -4.5 or -5.5 on the lookahead to -3.5 or -4. KC just doesn’t look buttoned up, despite the strong record. And the Chargers are making a really big push. They got a little fortunate in the win over the Falcons, but that is the type of game that the old Chargers would have lost.

Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5, 48.5) at Dallas Cowboys

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Admittedly, I was shocked that Lou Anarumo wasn’t fired during the bye. Now it seems like Anarumo and Zac Taylor are locks to be sacked by the Bengals at some point. Cincinnati has lost four games this season when scoring 33+ points. That is an outrageous accomplishment. They shouldn’t have to worry about Dallas’s offense, but it’s a big number on a team that has burned a lot of bankrolls and Survivor entries this season. The Cowboys are also on extra rest and seem hellbent on screwing up their draft pick positioning. This line is about where it was, but we’ll see if it stays that way.

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